WC Round of 8
horn
Super Moderator
Futures:
Argentina to win Copa del Mundo +730 (1 unit)
Uruguay to win Copa del Mundo +1800 (1 unit)
Brazil to win Copa del Mundo +260 (3 units)
Lukas Podolski Top Goal Scorer +5150 (.04 unit)
Argentina to win Copa del Mundo +730 (1 unit)
Uruguay to win Copa del Mundo +1800 (1 unit)
Brazil to win Copa del Mundo +260 (3 units)
Lukas Podolski Top Goal Scorer +5150 (.04 unit)
Comments
Record: +19.18 units
Friday:
Brazil -.5 +101 v. Netherlands (1 unit)
Brazil 2-0 +720 (.2 unit)
Uruguay 2-0 +740 (.2 unit)
Uruguay -.5 +108 v. Ghana (1 unit)
Saturday:
Germany v. Argentina Both Teams To Score -120 (2 units)
Argentina 2-1 +800 (.2 unit)
Spain/Paraguay 1-1 +700 (.2 unit)
Aside from them being the best team int he tourney, I think it helps me cover my bases. I'm confident that no European or African team is going to raise the cup. I think that the chalk: Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina and Spain will go through to the quarters. While Spain has the easiest journey to get there, I think there is too much history (No team from Europe ever won WC not in Europe, No team ever won WC that lost opening match, They lost to the USA and Swiss in SA for god's sakes) and they simply look very beatable to me in comparison to what I've seen from the other 3 teams that I believe will be fighting for a spot in the final. Gun to my head, I say that we see the matchup that would be intriguing on so many levels, Argentina v. Brazil. Brazil poses as much an offensive threat as any team left in the competition, has the best backline, best coach, and as important as anything I aforementioned -Belief. This team knows they have what it takes and I can see their body language as well as Dunga's that this team is on a mission and will win it if they keep working hard. They are battlle tested in South Africa, both in this competition and in the Confederation's Cup. I had a lot of success in the round of 16 by applying what I'd seen previously in the competition, plain and simple, and after seeing a good bit now I believe that Brazil and their unrivaled WC record are gonna prove to be too much for the rest of the field.
I liked the Dutch as a semi-sleeper this year, but I think a team like Brazil that can take advantage of their holes on defense is going to give them trouble Friday. Slovakia could have easily had 2 or 3 goals. They're only chance, IMO, is to win a high scoring game, say 3-2, and I think Brazil's D is stingier than in past compaigns, so that will be a tough task for the Dutch.
Chisox
I think one of the problems with the Dutch that this will face is their formation. I think they realize that their defense is no where close to as good as it appears if you are just looking at their numbers on paper for the past two years or so. So the two Dutch Defensive mids are going to either have to sit back and hope to absorb pressure, or they are going to take a risk in leaving the immediacy of the backline in order to inspire some creativity from their midfield. I think the biggest concern that I have is Robben v. Bastos on the flank/back as Bastos is an attacking mid for his club but playing FB for Brazil. Dunga knows a lot more than I do and wil have time to formulate a plan, but Bastos coming forward and Robben finding space is a concern. After re-watching the Chile match though, it really is amazing how the Brazilian defense absorbed the Chilean pressure and they rarely bothered Cesar in net. Everyone talks about how Brazil relies too much on the counter, but they scored their first goal from a counter and corner both in the match v. Chile. I just think there is a multitude of ways Brazil can hurt the Dutch and the mismatch of Brazil forwards v. Dutch center backs can't be overstated enough. The Dutch don't have a monster in the back like Lucio and Fabiano's strike rate is just absurd in his country's shirt.
The Dutch are good, no doubt. my only concern would be their defense and what has been 4 games against not so stiff competition. it is WC, so obviously most teams earned it and are capable on the pitch, but there is a steep drop-off when you go from Brazil to Cameroon, Japan, Denmark and Slovakia. i'm not real big on FIFA rankings, but only one of those teams was Top 20 (19) and Brazil is Brazil. what the Dutch do have going for them is a playing a team that is not only expected to win every game, but do so in spectacular fashion. although i admit they showed a lot more patience than i thought they would playing teams that were playing for scoreless draws (portugal). when nearly every player on the Brazilian side can score, how do you shut them down? do the Dutch play for XT and possible PK win, or attack? Brazil wins, it is only a matter of Ned wanting to lose 1-nil or 4-2.
i like Over in the Ghana/Uruguay tilt based on nothing more than the speed of the Black Stars, and the striking ability of Forlan and Suarez. it wasn't as if the U.S. was without chances, just didn't convert. still not a believer in Uruguay. love Ghana as i had them to advance from Groups and to be top African team at +335.
had little faith in Spain as well, but the contest with Portugal, in which they owned the 2nd H, restored my confidence. Paraguay had a dream trip, playing in a Group with an Italian team suddenly void of defense, a shitty Kiwi team and Slovakia. and then the PK win over Japan. if they couldn't notch one against the Blue Samurai...
Argentina v Germany is by far the most perplexing. this game could easily be a WC Final game. hoping Germany attacks the same way they did England. everyone keeps talking about their youth, so i hope even if the game plan is to focus on defense first, Argentina can draw them out some. either way i would expect some fireworks, either in goals or fist, or a little of both. these teams do not like each other (does anyone like Argentina?). teams have been focusing on Messi and he is still getting chances. Tevez needs to keep burying his chances as he did last game, even the ones that shouldn't count. my heart and wallet both say Argentina, but my mind says it could go either way.
Ya I would be happy with those positions as well. Good work.
Here are just some random thoughts about the Brazil/Dutch:
I like Brazil to advance, and win the whole competition, but I think there are a few areas where they are succeptible in this match:
Left back for sure and the matchup there between Bastos and Robben. Robben is tough for any LB, especially one that is not a true LB but an attacking mid. He hasn't been challenged a whole lot thus far defensively and fortuntaely he has two of the biggest monsters at CB in the world to support him, but this matchup is a potential problem area for Brazil. He has looked fantastic coming forward as his speed and ball skills resemble that of the true MF he is, but I worry about him coming forward and Robben getting linked up to on a dutch counter attack.
The creativity and short passing game of the Brazil midfield is gonna be pretty limited. Aside from them getting too cute around the perimeter of the box with their passing( I say this everytime I see them play), I think a Brazil side without Melo and Elano in the midfield is much more volatile with Alves flying up and down the field and launching all sorts of passes. Don't get me wrong, I'm in the Alves fan club, but I think having him in there as opposed to the two i just mentioned takes away some from their buildup and possession. he can afford to get real vertical and take some chances with Barca because they have such a creative and incredible passing midfield, but I think this Brazil side at the moment is lacking some of that in the midfield. Alves wastes too many chances sometimes
I will be interested to see how much de jong and van bommel push forward. I think they will probably be cautious as leaving 1v1's with any of the Dutch defenders against Kaka, Robinho, Fabiano etc is asking for real trouble. I can't for the life of me figure out how the Dutch have as impressive a record defensively as they do here recently, and actually for past couple years, because everytime I see them play teams are just squandering opportunity after opportunity (see Slovakia for recent example). For me, if Melo is out as well as Elano, Kaka is gonna need to find some of his old magic to create some scoring chances.
As much as Chile came at brazil last match it really was amazing how few times Julio Cesar was bothered in the net. Again, credit the backline for Brazil for soaking up the pressure. Lucio was a ManBearPig on a few of his runs coming forward in his 5 ounce striker boots and from a fan's perspective, I hope I can see some more of those runs, as long as Robben isn't in the game v. Bastos on the flank. As apprehensive as I've been about Bastos, he was a rock against Alexi Sanchez last match which is no easy task, so maybe Dunga knows better than I do about what he is capable of in defense.
I hope Van Persie is up top again. He loves wasting goal scoring chances more than Alves likes firing a cross out of play when he had a diagonal run from an unmarked man across the middle of the pitch. Kuyt shouldn't pose much of an offensive threat except for picking up the garbage and working hard to win balls. I stil don't know much about this Dutch keeper, but he certainly hasn't "wowed" me at any point this cup. IMO, the Dutch haven't faced a real quality opponent thus far while Brazil has faced 3 and i think the Brazilians qualifying is much more impressive than the Dutch's and their farse of a defensive record throughout it. An early Brazilan goal and I think this one gets put to bed. Not because the Dutch aren't as capable as any team for a quick strike, but because they are gonna have to open up some and get stretched which will expose their backline.
I asked myself this: Which team can play a subpar match, by their own standards, and still likely get the result they need? I have thought about it again and again and I think the answer is Brazil everytime. I trust Brazil to hold on to a 1 goal lead much more than i trust the Dutch to do the same. An early goal though prob sets the place on fire and anything can happen. There is a somewhat juicy scoring bet I'm looking at right now at a price I don't play a lot of, but I think the price is still to short as this match is prob gonna see a fair amount of decent goal scoring opportunities, even if both sides play it somewhat close to the vest.
In a small sample thus far, betting OVERS, esp at 2 at the highest altitudes in J-Burg is a prob a +EV bet. Too hard to say if it really has to do with the altitude or just randomness though, significantly more scoring in J-Burg than anywhere else which are the highest altitude venues.
I think this match is going to be great because of it's physicality. Two teams that really rely on being strong both with the ball and away from it. Ghana has a few injury concerns in this match, although it appears most of the players are gonna try to give it a go. The best player on the pitch by a very large margin in the Ghana/USA game was Kevin Price Boateng. He left in the 70th or so with a hamstring and has been questionable all week but it appears he is gonna go. Asamoah Gyan, the striker, nursing a knock on the ankle is also less than 100% but gonna give it a go. Mensah is out at CB for this match, and Vorsah will return to fill his spot as Vorsah is coming back from an injury himself. No drop off at all there as long as Vorsah is indeed truly fit. The biggest loss for the Ghana side and something that i feel may take away from their offense is the absence of dede ayew. He is the guy on their team with fantastic dribbling skill, you may remeber him from US match as he had a bunch of tape on his hand that looked like a MJ white glove. I feel he is one of the better players in Africa that really gets little notoriety. he is out for sure on bookings. What's funny is that he will be replaced by a player from Inter Milan, Muntari, who is a cancer in the dressing room and really not capable of giving more than an hour as his fitness is a joke. So without Ayew, and having a banged up KPB and Gyan, I worry who is going to be the creator on offense and who is actually gonna finish chances, something they struggled with through qualifying and every match thus far, except against the MAC football-esque defense of the Stars and Bars. Ghana likes to play 5 in the midfield a good bit and it will interesting to see how Tabarez counters that tactically. If there is just one area where I am lukewarm on uruguay, it's the midfield. I think the GK, backs and forwards are top notch but the midfield has left some to be desired thus far, for me at least. On paper I see this as a defensive struggle. Ghana doesn't score more than 1 goal in 90 minutes, really ever. They are facing the best and most physical back line they have thus far and have their attacking options somewhat limited or less than 100%. I think the real deciding factor is the class from the uruguayan forwards. Cavini, Suarez, Forlan - certainly no African teams come anywhere close to matching a three headed monster like that and very few teams in the world do, IMO. I have been frustrated as a big Forlan fan with seeing him drop off and get more involved in the midfield and creating chances and setting up suarez on so many of his goals. You can tell though that Forlan checked his ego at the door and is content as long as his team wins, I just wish Lodeiro was a bit more mature so he could get more minutes and help supply Forlan more in the area as he is surgical with both feet. If Uruguay scores 1st, let's say in the 1H, I think this match has a real chance to go OVER. No really groundbreaking stuff with my comment there, but I think if Ghana has to open up and get stretched then the class of the Uruguayan strikers is gonna be too much for them and uruguay could hang a number on them. I hope that uruguay has learned that they need to avoid being real negative with a lead as SK almost made them pay for until Suarez knocked in that nasty curler. Ghana more beat up and less than full strength, while Uruguay is in good shape - save for Godin I believe. I would play OVER 2 before I played UNDER 2 without thinking twice.
Can't get excited to cap and/or watch this one right now. (Spain/Paraguay)
I'm tired of typing but don't disagree with anything. I'm looking for some scoring bets here, neither defense has been tested yet and both with fantastic offenses.
I'm not sure what the best advice to give you is. I will prob be making less bets from here on out as the matches get tougher and the lines get tighter. I wouldn't play the future though for the full 1k. I am hoping to have money on 3 of the 4 teams left to win the WC so it is a different scenario than what you are asking about, IMO. I had quite a few breaks go my way this past week and who knows if that positive variance will carry through the rest of the WC or if I will hit a wall. Best advice would be to bet games individually for lesser amounts as opposed to going crazy and putting it all on one bet. I am not sure if I am even going to take anything in the Brazil match, as the scoring prop bet that i was gonna take went from -195 to -321 before I could make up my mind to bet it between last night and today. I never recommend getting too crazy and not using proper money management. I know my advice really isn't great and maybe not exactly what you were asking, i just don't wanna see you get involved at this stage of the game and invest too much and my picks don't do well. GL with whatever you decide to do and sorry I couldn't give u a more cut and dry response.
that is an angle i completely failed to consider, which team could have an off day and still advance. Brazil is the best in the world. however, hard to dismiss a team that is unbeaten in 23 straight International Matches.
how good is a team that leaves Ronaldinho and Adriano off the roster. i really just wanted to see if Neymar could be a surprise at the WC and electrify the tourney. if he would have made the roster at 18, would possibly play in 5 Cups. big step from League play to the WC, but he may also be one of those talents that comes around once a generation, or once every 10 years in Brazil. i think i, among many others, do overlook their D.
The Germany/Tina Both to score bet:
Trusting my eyes again here. I see both teams as being extremely potent offensively, and I don't think either defense is close to as good as their recent numbers may indicate. Too may legit goal scorers on the field: Mueller, Ozil, Klose, Podolski, Tevez, Higuain, Messi. The list actually could go on even further. I would like to elaborate even further as this is just such an elementary analysis of why I made the bet, and there are plenty of reasons, I could write a couple thousand page paper on it.. But I'm too tired and if you have been following along the threads at all this WC at all you have a pretty good idea whether or not I have any idea at all what I'm doing.
I will be away for the weekend and potentially without very much computer access from early afternoon tomorrow until monday. If I play anything else, it will either be in the morning on friday or if I feel there that something pops up that would really benefit others by me sharing, I will do what i can via my phone. Have a safe and happy holiday, everyone!
Real quick before I catch some z's..
if you remember Dunga from 94', or read up on him as a player, it will come as no surprise why the Brazilian fans bitch about them not playing "joga bonita" anymore. The game is changing, I credit him for taking a pragmatic approach and doing it at the expense of his country cursing him for only beating teams 3-0 but not having enough flair... Says a lot about the Brazilian culture and expectations. They win this WC and you are laying -150 or more on them pre tourney to win WC 2014 in brazil.
Macedonia
Iceland
Norway
Sweeden
Tunisia
Scotland
Macedonia
Iceland
Norway
England (This was comical the criminal errors the english made)
Japan
Scotland
Australia
Italy
Paraguay
US
Mexico
Ghana
Hungary
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon
Slovakia
Doesn't do much for me, personally. This team has been rubbish so far in the WC and have been INCREDIBLY fortunate to play like hell and beat some garbage teams. If they mirror anything close to even their best effort thus far this WC, they potentially lose by 2 goals if brazil has an above average showing. Now there is nothing to say that brazil is gonna be average or even above average, and the Dutch have the attacking skill to beat Brazil on any given day, but I think it's damn near impossible for teams to just flip a switch and turn it on in these competitions, and that is the type of effort that it will take for the dutch to get a result and progress. The longer this one goes without a goal, the more anticlimactic and disappointiing this match becomes to your average sports fan that tunes in. It has the potential to be a real grinder, i for one, hope we see an early brazilian goal and we get the show we want. Rare to see two pragmatic coaches for Holland and Brazil in the WC. We are gonna have to say, 'Now where did that dutch team come from?" tomorrow if they are gonna advance, IMO.
Brazil win/draw in 45 of their last 48 matches
Brazil 40 wins 3 draws 6 losses last 49 World Cup matches dating back 32 years
In regards to the Brazilian defense, goal differential in general in the most difficult qualifying section in the world:
TeamPd W D L GF GA GD Pts
Brazil 18 9 7 2 33 11 +22 34
Chile 18 10 3 5 32 22 +10 33
Para 18 10 3 5 24 16 +8 33
Arge 18 8 4 6 23 20 +3 28
Uru 18 6 6 6 28 20 +8 24
Ecua18 6 5 7 22 26 −4 23
Colo 18 6 5 7 14 18 −4 23
Vene 18 6 4 8 23 29 −6 22
Boliv 18 4 3 11 22 36 −14 15
Peru 18 3 4 11 11 34 −23 13
Brazil 2-0 +720 (.2 unit)
Uruguay 2-0 +740 (.2 unit)
Argentina 2-1 +800 (.2 unit)
Spain/Paraguay 1-1 +700 (.2 unit)
-9.2 units this round after the South American collapse. From being a good size favorite to have 3 of the 4 teams remaining in futures, to having one team remaining and on the outside looking in. That being said, I am glad to have Uruguay paired with the Dutch as opposed to being on the other side of the bracket. Maybe I'm hard headed, but still was left far from impressed with the Dutch as they were well on their way out of the competition before one of the biggest mental collapses I can remember from a Brazilian side.
Uruguay TT OVER 1 +300 (.5 unit)
Germany PICK +100 v. Spain (1 unit)
Germany TT OVER 1 -115 (1 unit)
Germany to Advance -110 (1 unit)
Germany v. Spain OVER 2.5 +125 (1 unit)
Well balanced - all for one
Like your plays
Hopefully Spain will not impress us in the semi-finals and Germany beat them almost as easy as they beat Argentina.
Edinson Cavani Scores a Goal +552 (.25 unit)
Almost took Diego Perez at +8100 to be first goal scorer, would be fitting for his first international goal, but didn't and will kick myself for months for not betting the hunch if it somehow hits.
I had to...
Diego Perez Scores 1st Goal +10000 (.10 unit)
If he scores his first goal, the first goal, in his 56th cap, I will ride off on my horse into the sunset and retire from the sports betting world a happy man. I hit a wild one of these with Nemanja Vidic in the CL a few years ago and I have an intuitive feeling that I just can't pass up on.
I think the absence of Suarez up top caused an over reaction. I have talked about it time and time again this WC, I think the Dutch defense is smoke and mirrors and one of their strengths is playing the two DM's and they will be without De Jong to compliment Van Bommel and the dutch will also be without VDW on the back line. The pressure falls squarely on the shoulders of the oranje here and the longer this match goes before they score, the better the chances that Uruguay can find space and goal scoring opportunities. They have score 4 goals in 5 matches in the 80th minute or so and beyond, so they are no starngers to late heroics. Forlan and Cavani up top still pose a real threat even without Suarez. If the Dutch score early that's fine with me as Uruguay will have to press on. If the Dutch are scoreless in the 1H, that's fine with me as they will want to find the answer before ET and as I aforementioned, space can open up for Forlan to get surgical. There is a chance Uruguay plays for 0-0 here, but with their missings on the back line, I think this startegy is less likely and they will be a bit more offensive minded than many believe heading into the clash. One goal from uruguay may be enough for me to win a couple bets at once with goal scorers and the TT o.5 as Cavani and Forlan are the two most real threats, IMO, to score for the Celeste.