Betting Talk

NBA scoring projections for Tuesday 03/23

paid03paid03 Senior Member
edited March 2010 in Sports Betting
CHAR 93
WAS 92-- cover 5
IND 101--cover 7-- 199 (under)
DET 98

Something to keep in mind for the IND/DET game. In their last match-up it took better than 50% by both teams behind the arc, better than 50% FG shooting by Indiana, AND 80% average FT shooting to hit a combined 208.

*The O/U is not relevant in the Char/Was game, my three plays are noted.


Results from yesterday:
3-1 on the night

Predicted:
HOU-- 103-- cover 5
CHI --100
ATL --99 --cover 6
MIL --98
TOR -- 107-- 209 (under)
MIN --102
SA --99-- cover 4
OKC-- 101

Actual:
Hou 88: off by 15 points (HOU only scoring 13 points in the 3rd QTR pretty much accounts for this)
Chi 98: off by 2 points
Atl 95: off by 4 points
Mil 98: dead-on
Tor 107: off by 1 point
Min 100: off by 2 points
SA 99: dead-on
OkC 96: off by 5 points

Comments

  • xlcfxlcf Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Hi paid03,

    "WAS 92 -- cover 5"

    Does this mean you have them losing by a point only?
  • Biggs55Biggs55 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    What about the other games?
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Yes xlcf. The odds makers inflated that line because public perception is that the Wizards are terrible. The truth is that they may not be the best, but they are still professionals and won't get beat by 7 at home in a game that is projected to go a combined 185.

    Biggs, the other projected scores are very tight:

    DEN-- 112 --cover 0.5--218 (under)
    NY --105
    LAC --96--
    DAL --106--cover 0.5--202 (under)
  • xlcfxlcf Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I have a question regarding projecting scores for a match. Do you take into account player match ups or do you take it as a separate analysis once the software provides a projected number?
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Most of the projections come from exploiting embellished lines (which play on public perception.) Otherwise the lines are very tight. I just play use line movements and recent ATS performance, and let the odds makers tell me about matchups by reading the lines.
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Haha, saw that cover-blow-by-OT coming from a mile away. 2-1 tonight.
  • xlcfxlcf Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Good job! They should have lost in regular time :)
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Yeah, isn't easy to go into overtime with your top 2 scorers having 5 fouls. Blatche would have been nice to have, also.
  • IHMWFIHMWF Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I was hoping that Wizards missed that 3 in reg. because you knew if it went to OT that you were going to lose.
    Too bad you cannot bet just OT. I could have hedge my bet.
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Yeah, I would have taken that bet. Did you see that 3 at the end of OT rim out? Could have sworn it was going down for the cover coming in the backdoor of the Charlotte's backdoor cover.
  • paid03paid03 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    paid03 wrote:
    Yes xlcf. The odds makers inflated that line because public perception is that the Wizards are terrible. The truth is that they may not be the best, but they are still professionals and won't get beat by 7 at home in a game that is projected to go a combined 185.

    Biggs, the other projected scores are very tight:

    DEN-- 112 --cover 0.5--218 (under)
    NY --105
    LAC --96--
    DAL --106--cover 0.5--202 (under)

    It just hit me, I predicted the LaC/DAL game dead-on.

    Hit the under on the Nuggets game too, but lost the side. Needless to say, I hit both side and O/U on the Dallas game.
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