Key's Kontribution, Friday, 2.19.10
KeyElement
Banned
Miami Heat +6.5 At Memphis Grizzlies
JMHO, but I think they may have a false favorite here guys. The Heat have played 8 of their last 10 on the road but still carry a positive scoring margin versus an above average strength of schedule. They are 5-5 ATS in that span, but that has to be to their credit considering the difficult strength of schedule. The Grizzlies are not the scoring machine we sometimes think they are, certainly not the last 12 games where they have topped 100 points only once (in regulation time), that being at Toronto Wednesday where they just happened to put up the Raptors less than stellar defensive average, 102 points per game in regulation time over their last 10 games. With only 2 of their last 10 on the road and a slightly weaker than average schedule, that means the Raptors are surrendering 102 ppg to literally anybody, and there is no sign that the Grizzlies can return to their high scoring ways versus a team that plays far better defense (86.5 ppg last 10, regulation time). The total would not have opened and stuck at 188.5 If the totals bettors felt the Grizzlies could put up 100+ on the Heat, and that makes a spread of 6.5 an even better deal. My personal numbers say the Heat wins this one outright, 99-90, right in line with what totals bettors are thinking, so I am rolling with the Heat and looking for the outright win. BOL, Key.
JMHO, but I think they may have a false favorite here guys. The Heat have played 8 of their last 10 on the road but still carry a positive scoring margin versus an above average strength of schedule. They are 5-5 ATS in that span, but that has to be to their credit considering the difficult strength of schedule. The Grizzlies are not the scoring machine we sometimes think they are, certainly not the last 12 games where they have topped 100 points only once (in regulation time), that being at Toronto Wednesday where they just happened to put up the Raptors less than stellar defensive average, 102 points per game in regulation time over their last 10 games. With only 2 of their last 10 on the road and a slightly weaker than average schedule, that means the Raptors are surrendering 102 ppg to literally anybody, and there is no sign that the Grizzlies can return to their high scoring ways versus a team that plays far better defense (86.5 ppg last 10, regulation time). The total would not have opened and stuck at 188.5 If the totals bettors felt the Grizzlies could put up 100+ on the Heat, and that makes a spread of 6.5 an even better deal. My personal numbers say the Heat wins this one outright, 99-90, right in line with what totals bettors are thinking, so I am rolling with the Heat and looking for the outright win. BOL, Key.
Comments
Beasley always gets bullied by more physical PFs and sometimes it frustrates him...
good luck, leaning to the Heat backdooring myself at the moment
put 1u on the side and 0.4u on +250 myself
sounds like good $$$ to me
good call key played them ATS also, the outright win was certainly a bonus