Betting Talk

Key's Kontribution, Friday, 2.19.10

KeyElementKeyElement Banned
edited February 2010 in Sports Betting
Miami Heat +6.5 At Memphis Grizzlies

JMHO, but I think they may have a false favorite here guys. The Heat have played 8 of their last 10 on the road but still carry a positive scoring margin versus an above average strength of schedule. They are 5-5 ATS in that span, but that has to be to their credit considering the difficult strength of schedule. The Grizzlies are not the scoring machine we sometimes think they are, certainly not the last 12 games where they have topped 100 points only once (in regulation time), that being at Toronto Wednesday where they just happened to put up the Raptors less than stellar defensive average, 102 points per game in regulation time over their last 10 games. With only 2 of their last 10 on the road and a slightly weaker than average schedule, that means the Raptors are surrendering 102 ppg to literally anybody, and there is no sign that the Grizzlies can return to their high scoring ways versus a team that plays far better defense (86.5 ppg last 10, regulation time). The total would not have opened and stuck at 188.5 If the totals bettors felt the Grizzlies could put up 100+ on the Heat, and that makes a spread of 6.5 an even better deal. My personal numbers say the Heat wins this one outright, 99-90, right in line with what totals bettors are thinking, so I am rolling with the Heat and looking for the outright win. BOL, Key.

Comments

  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    that confident in the Heat w/o Dwade?

    Beasley always gets bullied by more physical PFs and sometimes it frustrates him...

    good luck, leaning to the Heat backdooring myself at the moment
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    Thanks Key,
    put 1u on the side and 0.4u on +250 myself
  • UMcanes3UMcanes3 Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    Is Wade playing?
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited February 2010
    calzone, the differences in team performances are too radical to ignore. Part of the 6.5 line is the tendency of bettors to soil their diapers over one player. That 188.5 total is a big tip in itself. If the Grizzlies can't put up 100, D Wade is not worth the entire 15.5 points difference from my computation.
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited February 2010
    BTW, if Wade were in the game, the line would be much lower and probably be a ML play for me.
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    agreed on that level, its certainly an overreaction by the public and 6.5 points is way too much to give up which is why I am thinking of backing the Heat. watching the heat most of the season they really do hit a wall at times when the offense isn't running through wade, that is the main concern. I don't think like the public obviously the heat will not LOSE out in all games wade doesn't play in, but a team without its backbone in a pretty difficult place to play, an outright win is iffy.
  • UMcanes3UMcanes3 Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    Key, if you don't mind me asking... how do you calculate that 15.5 points?
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited February 2010
    if wade doesn't play I don't see the heat staying in this game, memphis at home should blow them out but you never know since miami plays terrible at home for some reason and shows up on the road at random times
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited February 2010
    UMcanes3 wrote:
    Key, if you don't mind me asking... how do you calculate that 15.5 points?
    A lot of different factors go into that and it is based on regular starters being available, but no starter on any team is worth a swing that large.
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited February 2010
    ChaseG wrote:
    if wade doesn't play I don't see the heat staying in this game, memphis at home should blow them out but you never know since miami plays terrible at home for some reason and shows up on the road at random times
    Did you miss the point about the Grizzlies scoring these days? They aren't blowing out anybody at 95.1 ppg last 10 and 92.7 ppg last 7 at home.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    Parlay the Heat and Spurs to Win. 100 wins 460
    sounds like good $$$ to me
  • DollaXpressDollaXpress Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    Great call Key...............
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    those grizz seem to be unraveling now, been shopping OJ Mayo all week during the trade deadline no real takers...

    good call key played them ATS also, the outright win was certainly a bonus
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited February 2010
    thank you, guys.
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