Betting Talk

NEJIM Super Bowl Plays

NEJimNEJim Senior Member
edited February 2010 in Sports Betting
50-38-3 Playoffs 7-5









NO....First thing... I like the Saints, Brees is a gutsy QB and I think they can hang with the Colts for a half, but lets face facks..the Saints are very lucky to be here after the blow out of NE Nov.30th.. they just got passed a very bad Redskins team, got beat by the Falcons lost badly too Dallas, Tampa, Carolina..yup I know they rested in the last 2 ..but they got outplayed by Minny.. yards 475-257.. first downs 31-15 time of possession... 36:49..27:56 this dose not bode well for a SB win.





Colts... Manning has moved his game up a notch he is the best in the game right now and he is at his peak..and could be moving into best ever. Colts beat 2 very good defensive teams Ravens and Jets EZ .. Its just me but ..IMO Colts could have gone undefeted with that opportunity gone.. no way they let SB XLIV slip by..the Colts - 4.5 (5 Dimes) for ..5 units



UNDER( I hate playing unders) The 1st qt just seems to fly both sides feel each othe out look for a lot of underneath pass and long 7-8 min drives
UNDER 56.5 1 unit


TEASER Colts +1.5 ..UNDER 62.5...2 units

Colts... 31
Saints..17

GL TO ALL NEJIM

Comments

  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    I couldn't agree with you more... I don't really see Peyton and the Colts having trouble offensively but they will move the chains and control the clock maybe a few big plays here and there and defensively limit the saints big plays with a lot of zone cover 2... Lookin for a lot of short passing plays. If Colts get ahead early this one I think could be over by the half but either way can't see it being close by final whistle. Colts by double digits and I like the under as well. LOVE the first half under play!
  • RammerJammerRammerJammer Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    I see this one playing out like this game earlier this year between a similar opponent and the Colts. Freeney was not a factor as he didn't have a sack or tackle but I'm not sure if he was injured.

    Patriots fall to Colts after squandering 17-point lead in fourth quarter

    Associated Press

    INDIANAPOLIS -- Bill Belichick risked everything on one play Sunday night.

    It cost him a victory, and it may wind up costing him a trip back to Indianapolis for a rematch with Peyton Manning later this season.

    After the New England coach failed on a stunning gamble deep in his own territory, Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne with 13 seconds left that rallied the unbeaten Colts to a 35-34 win over the Patriots.


    "It's a bummer," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said.

    Needing a first down to seal the game, Belichick decided to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 with 2:08 to go. The Patriots called their second timeout of the drive, leaving them with none, to set up the play: A short pass from Brady to Kevin Faulk, something the 2007 NFL MVP had repeatedly used to burn Indy's young, depleted pass defense all night.

    Not this time.

    Faulk made a juggling catch but safety Melvin Bullitt, who replaced Bob Sanders in the lineup, came straight up the field and drove the Patriots running back into the ground a half-yard short of the marker.

    "We tried to win the game on that play," Belichick explained. "I thought we could make the yard. We had a good play, we completed it. I don't know how we couldn't get a yard."

    It was the most improbable victory for the Colts (9-0) in their 18-game regular-season winning streak, which is now tied for the second-longest in league history with, of all teams, New England.

    The Colts trailed by 17 points early in the fourth quarter. This marked the first time Belichick's Patriots had lost when leading by at least 13 in the final period.

    "When you see them going for it on fourth down, you get a little nervous, but our defense blitzed them, pressured them and got the stop," Manning said. "It certainly changed our philosophy. In practice, we're going 60 or 70 yards. So we figure we're going to have to go five, six, seven plays. In the huddle, I said, 'Obviously, we need a touchdown, but let's not be in a hurry.'"

    The Patriots didn't dare second-guess their coach, though everybody else did.

    "That fourth-down play, that's one of your best plays, and you go to one of your best guys," Brady said. "We've got our offense on the field. We have over 450 yards of offense at the time. We've got a lot of great players on our offense. They stopped us."

    The miss gave Manning 1 minute, 57 seconds and all three timeouts -- an eternity for the three-time MVP -- and he went right to work.

    Manning hooked up with Wayne for 14 yards. He let Joseph Addai carry the ball for 13 yards, down to the Patriots 1. He sent Addai inside again on first-and-goal, the same play Addai scored on to win the 2006 AFC Championship game, but he got nothing. So Manning went back to Wayne in the end for the win.

    Manning's deft play-calling left New England with only one option: A 9-yard pass to Wes Welker that ran out the clock.

    It wasn't the first time Belichick tried it this season. At Atlanta, he went for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 24. But that was in the third quarter -- not with a seemingly secure victory in serious jeopardy.

    Indy is now 9-0 for the third time in five years and only plays one team with a record better than 5-4 the rest of the way, Denver at 6-3.

    New coach Jim Caldwell still has not lost, and Manning, who was 28 of 44 for 327 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, now has eight 300-yard games this season. The NFL's single-season record is 10 and he passed Fran Tarkenton for fourth on the career victories list with one that he will always remember.

    New England (6-3) has lost five of the last six in this series, one that has often had long-term implications. Since 2003, the regular-season winner has claimed the AFC title four times and become the Super Bowl champion three times.

    And the Pats now trail Indy by three full games, and a tiebreak, with seven games remaining, meaning they'll likely have to return to Indy if there is a rematch.

    "Give the Colts credit," Belichick said. "That's why the Colts are the Colts. They're a good football team. That's about as close as it gets."

    Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Randy Moss finished with nine catches for a season-high 179 yards and two TDs, while Welker had nine receptions for 94 yards.

    Manning made sure that wasn't quite enough.

    Wayne caught 10 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns.

    The difference in this classic was that Brady dominated early, Manning when it mattered most.
    Four downs
    » The Colts have won 18 straight regular-season games, which ties the second-longest win streak in NFL history.

    » The Colts outscored the Patriots 21-3 in the final 12:14.

    » Colts coach Jim Caldwell is the first rookie head coach in NFL history to start 9-0.

    » The Patriots led by 17 points in the fourth quarter. That's the largest lead the team has squandered in the fourth quarter under Bill Belichick, including the playoffs.

    After trading jabs in the first quarter, Brady took control in the second. He led the Pats to a tie-breaking field goal, hooked up with Moss on a 63-yard TD pass that floated perfectly over the hands of safety Antoine Bethea and then threw a 9-yard TD pass to Julian Edelman to give New England a 24-7 lead with 7:19 left in the half.

    That was more points than Indy had allowed in any game this season.

    "That man (Brady) will make you pay dearly if you don't get to him," Colts defensive end Robert Mathis said. "Even when we're behind, we know the game is not over."

    Manning proved the theory still holds.

    He answered with a 20-yard TD pass to Wayne, making it 24-14 at the half and after Brady connected with Moss for a 5-yard TD early in the fourth, Manning worked his magic again.

    He took the Colts 79 yards in five plays, finding Pierre Garcon for a 29-yard score to get within 10. After Stephen Gostkowski booted a 36-yard field goal, Manning gave the ball to Addai for a 4-yard TD run with 2:23 to go. That made it 34-28.

    Indy then elected to kick the ball deep instead of trying an onside kick, prompting Belichick to make his unusual decision -- and Manning made him pay.

    "Reggie called the last play," Manning said. "I threw a fade to him earlier in the game. He wanted the slant. He just kept fighting through and made an extended catch. Maybe not his best catch ever, but it sure was timely."

    Notes: Colts DE Dwight Freeney did not record a sack, breaking his streak at nine straight games. ... The game was delayed briefly in the first quarter when fireworks hit the field. ... Indy punted six times in the first half, matching their season high for an entire game this season. ... The Patriots lost Tully Banta-Cain with a rib injury in the first half.

    Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press
  • jfox1907jfox1907 Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    It's a big difference though from being held sackless and playing with a torn ligament. If Freeney is healthy he would demand more double teams, but now that he is going to be very limited (no matter what they say there is still a torn ligament) the double teams will go towards mathis and the backs for NO will be able to release a lot quicker because they won't have to worry about chipping freeney..I think that is going to be a big advantage for NO, and I think they will capatilize.
  • woozie28woozie28 Member
    edited February 2010
    NEjim,
    I'm with you on this one. CAN'T SEE MANNING BLOWING HIS HALL OF fAME CLINCHER. I'm also going to try the two team teaser. THANKS FOR THE ANALYSIS.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited February 2010
    woozie28 wrote:
    NEjim,
    I'm with you on this one. CAN'T SEE MANNING BLOWING HIS HALL OF fAME CLINCHER. I'm also going to try the two team teaser. THANKS FOR THE ANALYSIS.

    Pretty sure his HOF status is already clinched...
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