Big East thread
Davis7369
Member
Hi - I work for a network that covers all Big East games, football and basketball, so i am inundated with Big East hoops during the winter 7 days a week. Now that the conf. season is halfway over, I think I have a good feel for what's going on. I will start my record, in fairness, at 1-1. I posted Rutgers +7.5 at Uconn during football season (win) and lost the over in Seton hall/Louisville hoops a couple weeks ago.
Tonight: take the over in Cincy/Notre Dame 146. It should be around 156. Notre Dame plays no defense, as evidenced by Rutgers torching them over the weekend. And Cincinnati is very athletic, and perfectly happy to run up and down the court with anyone, as they did when they posted infinity points this past weekend vs Providence. The last bonus factor, is I see this game as a close game down the stretch, to add in the likelihood of garbage foul free throws if the over is close, which honestly, I don't think it will be.
Good luck.
Davis
Tonight: take the over in Cincy/Notre Dame 146. It should be around 156. Notre Dame plays no defense, as evidenced by Rutgers torching them over the weekend. And Cincinnati is very athletic, and perfectly happy to run up and down the court with anyone, as they did when they posted infinity points this past weekend vs Providence. The last bonus factor, is I see this game as a close game down the stretch, to add in the likelihood of garbage foul free throws if the over is close, which honestly, I don't think it will be.
Good luck.
Davis
Comments
Good luck all. back saturday.
Another one I'm loving Saturday:
Georgetown (-2) vs Villanova: Actually think we got lucky by Georgetown losing to South Florida earlier this week. Would've thought this to be about a 5 point spread, but we're lucky to get it at 2. True Villanova is undefeated in the conference, but closer examination reveals they don't have an impressive road win yet. They lost at Temple, and after that where do you turn? At Louisville? Nope, one of the weakest Pitino teams ever, that will be lucky to squeak into the dance. At Marquette? Nope. NIT team, and Scottie Reynolds bailed out Nova at the end of that game. Watched the first G'town-Nova game. It was Nova -4.5 and a minor last minute miracle (made 4-4 FT, avoided garbage 3's) covered for Nova. It was nip and tuck down the stretch, at Nova. I'm high on this Georgetown team. That USF loss is nothing to be ashamed of-Dominique Jones may be Big East player of the year and USF will be dancing come March. Nova has no one to contain Monroe, and I think G'town has the guards to at least minimize Reynolds. Also JTIII is one of the best halftime adjusters in the country. Plus the distinct home court advantage - see what they did in an early Saturday game against Duke last week. Take the Hoyas.
Another one today: Syracuse/Cincy over 140.5 (sportsbetting.com). Don't understand why these Cincinnati totals continue to be so low, but as long as they do, I'll continue taking them. I explained my thoughts on Cincinnati and their tempo in an earlier post, so no need to repeat. As for Syracuse, a couple points: 1) They have a legitimate go-to guy this year in Wes Johnson, that creates his own shot and can score at will at times. He was a banged up the other night hurting himself on a failed alley oop attempt, but he came back into the game and played, and is expected to play today 2) Interesting note on their zone this year: I am a Cuse alum, and this is the most active the zone has ever been. Significant use of "man to man" principles, as Bill Raftery would say. They press up on guards and it leads to one of two things: turnovers and easy transition hoops, or easy looks for the other team if they can beat the pressure. Both of these things are good for the over. Lastly, like I thought it would the other night with the ND/Cincy over (which admittedly got lucky on), I expect an all world effort from Cincinnati today as they are on the outside looking in on the tournament right now, which should lead to a close game and garbage fouls late.
Good luck.
Disappointing game yesterday. Everything was going on pace and as planned until Cincinnati decided to not score for the final 6:04 of the game, thereby making the margin too great to even foul down the stretch.
That said, tonight we have a game that I've had circled on my calendar for weeks. No, not Robert Morris-Pitt, I'm talking Villanova-West Virginia. Since the beginning of the season, I've had West Virginia on my "can't wait to bet against the first weekend of the tournament" list, right up there with Michigan State. The Butler-Ebanks-Jones trio is about as overrated as the 3 guards that Marquette ran out there the last 7 college basketball seasons prior to this one. They've gotten a bit of a boost from the return from suspension by Deniz Kilicli, but he's still not playing significant enough minutes to fully impact a game. Also, for those who haven't noticed, West Virginia has fallen into an alarming trend this season of sleep-walking their way through first halves and staging miracle comebacks late to win.
Witness:
At St John's: by 16 early 2nd half before rallying (STJ sucks by the way)
Louisville: trailed by 12 with 7 min to go
Ohio St: trailed by 12 at halftime
At Notre Dame: trailed by 20 at halftime before rallying to lose by 2
Marquette: trailed by 4 at half, 5 into the last minute before rallying to win on Butler last shot
In short, it takes them a while to wake up for whatever reason. I picked against Villanova on Saturday because I just didn't like that spot-first true road game, difficult travel w/ weather, etc. Jay Wright said after the game they were going to Morgantown yesterday, so travel shouldn't be an issue, and they should be well rested tonight. I am still fairly high on Villanova, though I don't think they are particularly competent defensively. That deficiency shouldn't hurt them as much tonight against WVU as it did against an amazing offensively efficient G'town team. West Virginia is a team that falls into the trap of taking a lot of bad shots and going on extended scoring droughts, which is why they've found themselves facing all sorts of deficits. They've gotten away with it in four of the five games listed above. But against a team with Nova's offensive firepower, if they go into one of their 5-6 minute dry spells, they will get buried.
I will probably bang this game every which way, 1st half, game and moneyline at +200 or better, but I think the best bet, due to WVU's sluggish tendencies in the opening frame is Nova +3 in the first half, and that's what I'll post for my record.
Davis
hopefully Nova can get the outright win for me now!
Davis
Tonight: Take Georgetown -4.5 at Providence.
While I think Providence can be undervalued at home in spots, tonight is not one of them. For those that haven't seen Georgetown play this year, this 2009-10 edition is a prime example of why I think JTIII is one of the best and most underrated coaches in the country. They are supremely efficient offensively-they're unselfish and make good passes, don't force shots, take the open looks, and they knock down outside shots. On the flip side of this matchup, Providence is a horrific defensive team. If we may simplistically break this down, take some of the G'town offense - Prov defense numbers in this game (from conference play)
FG%: G'town offense-50.4% (1st in Big East)... Prov defense-49.0% (last in Big East)
3-pt FG%: G'town offense-43.6% (2nd)... Prov defense-36.4% (14th in Big East)
Scoring offense: G'town: 73.7ppg (6th, all teams ahead of them run up and down floor)... Prov defense-83.1 ppg (dead last again)
In short, it's a great offensive team against a dreadful defensive team. G'town is likely to get comfortably into the 80's tonight, and much as I'm a fan of Jamine Peterson, he and the Friars don't have the firepower to hang that kind of a number on a solid G'town defensive team.
Two other points:
1) Though it may seem like there aren't, there are a couple Big East teams that can match up with Monroe (Syracuse, great example, shut him down). Providence is not one of them. They have nothing inside. Expect Monroe to have a big game tonight.
2) Providence has played only two teams who I confidently project to be in the field of 65. @ Syracuse - lost by 17 and home vs Louisville - lost by 22. They've played 5 other games against possible (albeit somewhat unlikely) NCAA teams. The results are not sparkling:
Marquette twice (lost by 30, 3)
South Florida (blew a 12 pt lead in last 2 minutes, lost in OT at home)
@ Rhode Island (lost by 4)
only "good" win... beat Uconn at home by 15. This UConn team is awful though - more on that coming tomorrow.
That sample does not lead me to believe they can hang with a legit top 10 team.
Also if you like this game, jump on it now, since the line is already moving (see it some other places at -5).
Good luck all.
Davis
Great work by Georgetown tonight. JTIII continues to impress, worked that press-break to perfection and Hoyas made their free throws. Also it's at least the 4th time by my count that he's worked miracles in the 2nd half to totally turn a game around (vs UConn, @ Nova, Pitt, @ Prov).
Moving on to Wednesday.
Take Syracuse -11 vs Uconn. This matchup is quite simply, a joke. Having been forced through work to watch probably 10 UConn games this year, I can honestly say it's a bad team that's only getting worse. They clearly miss Calhoun, as Blaney seems to be much more passive, and their oft-defeated body language on the court says a lot about their lack of character. Without Calhoun and without a Jeff Adrien-type, they have zero leadership. To a lesser degree than WVU (probably less noticeable because they're just bad) they also seem to come out slow most games.
As for this game itself, I just don't see how UConn is going to score any points. Their bigs, Edwards, Majok and Okwandu are horrific offensively. Occasionally Edwards will get to double digits but the other two have zero interior moves, and all three are soft offensively - they don't bruise inside, but sometimes settle for fadeaways. They usually only score on putbacks and fastbreaks. With Onuaku and Jackson inside, those fadeaways will be contested, and don't expect putbacks because this is the best Syracuse rebounding out of the zone team in recent memory. Kemba Walker is a deceptively bad point guard. He'll have the one hilight play that gets on SportsCenter every game, but buried in the box score is his 6-7 turnovers, and with the activeness the zone has this year, he's bound to get to at least that area tomorrow, and as I previously posted, Syracuse in transition is one of the best teams in the country. Also, unlike in years past, this UConn team will not be able to "shoot over the zone," often thought as the best way to beat it (though I disagree, but that's a topic for another time). Their only shooter is Dyson, but again, the 2-3 is pressing up on shooters much better this year. I see UConn finishing this game in the high 50s/low 60s range, and they don't play good enough defense to hold Syracuse below 70.
To also throw in some trend numbers, Syracuse is a phenomal 15-5 ATS this year, while UConn is 8-13. UConn SU on the road: 0-5. Cuse SU at home: 14-1.
In short, this game is a complete mistmatch from a matchup standpoint. Having experienced several of them firsthand, I can say the Dome crowd always gets up for UConn (G'town probably the only one more, though this year Nova as well). Factoring in the trends here as well, this has 20 pt win by Cuse written all over it, something like 79-59.
Good luck,
Davis
Anyway, Davis I totally agree with this play....I can not see UCONN scoring in this what so ever. Might see the same kind of game they put on against G-town a couple of Monday's ago. I also agree the the spread is off by at least 5 points.....Good luck, and keep up the great write-ups with Big East...big follower of it, and the Big Ten myself....
OSU