NCAAF Week 11 Plays

Comments

• VegasInsider Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  How did you do this weekend horn? I didn't have a chance to catch up on the board yesterday
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  VegasInsider wrote:

  How did you do this weekend horn? I didn't have a chance to catch up on the board yesterday

  
  4-2 +1.8 units
  
  Cashed my Bama to win SEC future for +1.85 units as well. Good weekend.
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  I want to just post SMU -6.5 here in this post as I'm about to edit my top post
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Future Update:
  
  UConn UNDER 7 Wins (4 units -115):
  
  4-5. Could very possibly have been at 7 already. They continue to be a covering machine this season, but the on-field luck they have experienced the past few seasons seems to be reverting toward the mean this year. Someday, maybe not this year, it will for luckiest team 1a. The Navy Midshipmen as well. Keep it in mind for the next few weeks and next year. Here is the rest of the schedule.
  
  Bye
  @ Notre Dame
  Syracuse
  South Florida
  
  I can't lose, but I don't make a bet in hopes of pushing it and tieing up money for that long. Hopefully the Catholics can beat em in a couple weeks and get this one locked up. It very well could come down to the final game against USF where i hope global warming comes into effect and it's 75 degrees and sunny, unlike some of the late season games in Connecticut. Huskies defense is worse than I've seen it in several years but they are scoring some. Secondary is bad and hopefully the Domers have another puntless game where they decide to translate yards into points.
  
  Bama to win SEC West (1 unit +185)
  
  Cashed it this weekend for a nice overall weekend in Bryant Denny. The fact that LSU, bama and OM were all listed at this price pre-season gives me hope that the oddsmakers will continue to do their part in setting poor lines. Just wish i had jumped on them to win the MNC pre-season at some wild odds. Tough game upcoming in Starkville this weekend, but the bet has already cashed.
  
  GT to win ACC (.5 units +650)
  
  Beat Duke and I'm in the title game. Duke's inability to move the ball last week was surprising. I know they aren't the best defensive group, but they just couldn't do much on offense. GT will continue to score bunches and be scored on plenty. Hopefully the lack of overall depth can be overcome and they take the title. It's the ACC, you never know what will happen next.. Still a very good bet, regardless of the outcome.
• beefcake Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Great job on the futures horn,i tailed on the ga tech one for a small pittance..lets hope we get to the game for a hedge opp..
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  beefcake wrote:

  Great job on the futures horn,i tailed on the ga tech one for a small pittance..lets hope we get to the game for a hedge opp..

  
  Pretty sure we get there.
  
  Likely playing Clemson for the second time this season, don't really like the matchup to be honest if that's the case. Hopefully Clemson can be the CU of old down the stretch here and BC can find a way into the title game. We'll see...
• FrankOBeans Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  hey horn, i know i ask this every week but can you take a look at some of my plays and give me some insight...always appreciated....http://www.bettingtalk.com/showthread.php?t=162999
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  FrankOBeans wrote:

  hey horn, i know i ask this every week but can you take a look at some of my plays and give me some insight...always appreciated....http://www.bettingtalk.com/showthread.php?t=162999

  
  Ya, it won't be for a few days though probably. I am still working on some games myself and I'm just gonna be real busy till the end of the season and may not have as much time to cap early in the wekk so some plays and opinions will prob come later. As soon as I can can finish working on some games I'll get back to you. GL
• nightlife32 Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Thanks for the Cal -under Horn and the Bama boys did me well! Looking forward to your plays this week!
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  176 Nevada -6
• FiveandDime Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  horn wrote:

  176 Nevada -6

  
  :thumbdown: booooooooooo..... I want the backup handicapper!
  
  Fresno State over the last decade owns a 4-1 advantage in Reno with an average score of 44-25. It's a meaningful game to Pat Hill every year because Chris Ault of Nevada tries to recruit the San Joaquin Valley and has been known to mislead recruits on how well he does against Pat Hill (2-9). The lone win in Reno came the week after Fresno State's near win at the Coliseum against USC in 2005. Last year they did win in Fresno late in the year but Fresno State only dressed 53 players (no Ryan Mathews) and the true freshman didn't get the job done. There also was an article with quotes from Kaepernick talking about being in Fresno over the summer with his pal and running into Pat Hill. Ault, when told the story asked him if he told Hill that they kicked his butt last season.
  
  - Fresno State owns a big advantage on special teams and seems to get a key play in almost each of the contests between the two. I expect Fresno State to win the game in this area. Their punter is one of the best in the Nation at over 47 yards a punt avg and their fg kicker is 11/12 on the year with a few 50 yarders. It's one reason why Fresno State is -9 on turnovers yet 6-3.
  
  - Fresno State expects to have their most explosive receiver back and their midseason AA OL who played one quarter last week will play I am told as he was held out against Idaho as a precaution.
  
  - Sagarin rates Fresno State as a 7 point favorite on a neutral field so a 4 point favorite on the road or thereabouts. Nevada usually has the ability to make teams look real bad when they fall behind quickly as they have done the last two of the last three weeks but can also play like crap as they did two weeks ago at home against Hawaii.
  
  Last but not least, I will be there in person to watch and if the game isn't going the way I see it then i'm going to run on the field naked which will surely get the Reno players much too "interested" in me and not the game and Fresno State will come back and take the game.
  
  Fresno State +205 :sweatdrop:
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  FiveandDime wrote:

  :thumbdown: booooooooooo..... I want the backup handicapper!
  
  Fresno State over the last decade owns a 4-1 advantage in Reno with an average score of 44-25. It's a meaningful game to Pat Hill every year because Chris Ault of Nevada tries to recruit the San Joaquin Valley and has been known to mislead recruits on how well he does against Pat Hill (2-9). The lone win in Reno came the week after Fresno State's near win at the Coliseum against USC in 2005. Last year they did win in Fresno late in the year but Fresno State only dressed 53 players (no Ryan Mathews) and the true freshman didn't get the job done. There also was an article with quotes from Kaepernick talking about being in Fresno over the summer with his pal and running into Pat Hill. Ault, when told the story asked him if he told Hill that they kicked his butt last season.
  
  - Fresno State owns a big advantage on special teams and seems to get a key play in almost each of the contests between the two. I expect Fresno State to win the game in this area. Their punter is one of the best in the Nation at over 47 yards a punt avg and their fg kicker is 11/12 on the year with a few 50 yarders. It's one reason why Fresno State is -9 on turnovers yet 6-3.
  
  - Fresno State expects to have their most explosive receiver back and their midseason AA OL who played one quarter last week will play I am told as he was held out against Idaho as a precaution.
  
  - Sagarin rates Fresno State as a 7 point favorite on a neutral field so a 4 point favorite on the road or thereabouts. Nevada usually has the ability to make teams look real bad when they fall behind quickly as they have done the last two of the last three weeks but can also play like crap as they did two weeks ago at home against Hawaii.
  
  Last but not least, I will be there in person to watch and if the game isn't going the way I see it then i'm going to run on the field naked which will surely get the Reno players much too "interested" in me and not the game and Fresno State will come back and take the game.
  
  Fresno State +205 :sweatdrop:

  
  Great post, thanks for taking the time to write up some good stuff.
  
  Here are a few things that I like about Nevada:
  
  As much as you say Hill wants this game, and I don't doubt that he does, UNR wants and needs it more. They have put themselves in position to make a run for the conf. title with the season finale on the blue shag. Now, i don't think they will beat Boise, but you are going to have a highly motivated home team here with more to play for.
  
  The batlle in the trenches favors UNR and by a fairly wide margin, IMO. Fresno has a lot of trouble getting penetration and into the backfield. On the other hand, UNR is very strong on both sides of the football, and that is where I think this game will be won.
  
  Both teams can run the football and run it well. the difference, is that UNR is much better at defending the run. The 5.5 ypc allowed by Fresno is very concerning when facing the Ault pistol. On the other hand, the 3.6 ypc allowd by UNR and roughly 55 less ypg allowed on the ground by the Pack is a huge factor in this game.
  
  I'll readily admit, UNR's secondary is awful in coverage. The good news for me is that Colburn doesn''t really scare me through the air, despite his incredibly efficient effort in Moscow. I like Kap better from not only a leadershup role, but from and overall productivity standpoint.
  
  To counter your TO margin argument, UNR is -9 and 6-3 as well in that dept.
  
  I will concede your ST's advantage but that's about the only overall area where I think you can give FSU the nod, and coaching of course.
  
  UNR has advantages in home field, motivation, offense, rush defense and the trenches. I know you believe that FSU will be highly motivated but i feel that a shot at a conf. title outweighs Hill's bulletin board material and border war beef. Motivation is key for me when capping this time of year and I think UNR has the edge there as well as the other areas I just mentioned. FSU has been a good road pup in the past but not close to as good as UNR has been in the home chalk role.
• FiveandDime Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  horn wrote:

  Great post, thanks for taking the time to write up some good stuff.
  
  Here are a few things that I like about Nevada:
  
  As much as you say Hill wants this game, and I don't doubt that he does, UNR wants and needs it more. They have put themselves in position to make a run for the conf. title with the season finale on the blue shag. Now, i don't think they will beat Boise, but you are going to have a highly motivated home team here with more to play for.
  
  That could be true but I still believe this is huge game for Fresno State, at least as much as Nevada. If Fresno State loses then they are 3rd in the WAC and like I have mentioned earlier this season, who knows if that is enough to get Hill a new contract. Many fans are tired of "3rd" in the WAC and want change so the pressure is on. Nevada has won the WAC more recently then Fresno State and although they want to win it again no doubt, there just isn't as much pressure with the "Little General". If Fresno State wins then they still have a shot at the WAC Title as it is within the realm of possibility that Nevada could beat Boise since Boise seems to be playing the worst of the three teams recently.
  
  Add to that the fact that I can't recall the last time Nevada won a "big game". They are well known in the WAC for laying eggs in big games or finding ways to lose by poor decisions made by Ault. See prior three seasons and their record in season openers when playing FBS teams (which I do consider big games).
  
  The batlle in the trenches favors UNR and by a fairly wide margin, IMO. Fresno has a lot of trouble getting penetration and into the backfield. On the other hand, UNR is very strong on both sides of the football, and that is where I think this game will be won.
  
  Both teams can run the football and run it well. the difference, is that UNR is much better at defending the run. The 5.5 ypc allowed by Fresno is very concerning when facing the Ault pistol. On the other hand, the 3.6 ypc allowd by UNR and roughly 55 less ypg allowed on the ground by the Pack is a huge factor in this game.
  
  Fresno State has played two teams with more stout rushing D's on the season (in terms of yards allowed per game), Boise State and Wisconsin. Boise State(#17 rush D) allows a similar 3.7 ypc and Wisconsin (#19) allows 3.1 ypc. Fresno State rushed for 8.2 and 4.6 ypc against them showing that Fresno State can control the line of scrimmage against these better rushing D's. Nevada also hasn't faced a top 30 rush O this year and only 2 top 50 rush O's. No team averages more than 4.5 ypc (Hawaii doesn't really count).
  
  Fresno State is also 10th in T.O.P. which is a key factor in this game IMO. I believe Fresno State will use the Cincy game plan of tight formation runs that are more geared on 4 ypc then busting big plays to keep Nevada away from the football.
  
  No need to cover Fresno rush D versus Nevada rush O because that is a clear winner for you but I would say that Fresno has easily played stronger rushing O's so the numbers might be skewed a little more against Fresno then it should but still not as strong.
  
  I'll readily admit, UNR's secondary is awful in coverage. The good news for me is that Colburn doesn''t really scare me through the air, despite his incredibly efficient effort in Moscow. I like Kap better from not only a leadershup role, but from and overall productivity standpoint.
  
  Without CK, we probably wouldn't be debating this game LOL. However his weakness is passing on obvious passing downs where he can't sell playaction. His numbers drop off in these situations and so the key for a Fresno State victory is to get a lead and make Nevada go to the air.
  
  To counter your TO margin argument, UNR is -9 and 6-3 as well in that dept.
  
  OK then tie!
  
  I will concede your ST's advantage but that's about the only overall area where I think you can give FSU the nod, and coaching of course.
  
  UNR has advantages in home field, motivation, offense, rush defense and the trenches. I know you believe that FSU will be highly motivated but i feel that a shot at a conf. title outweighs Hill's bulletin board material and border war beef. Motivation is key for me when capping this time of year and I think UNR has the edge there as well as the other areas I just mentioned. FSU has been a good road pup in the past but not close to as good as UNR has been in the home chalk role.

  
  
  I see your reasoning and think you do have some solid points but i'm very confident in this game based on feel of the team and intangibles (or I just overdosed on the kool-aid). So just don't bet TOO much on Nevada :shakehands:
• vegas dix Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Horn any lean tonight. Need to bet if its on tv..Nothing else to watch. Thinkin of just taking the home team, but I know absolutely nothing about either. Thanks..VD
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  vegas dix wrote:

  Horn any lean tonight. Need to bet if its on tv..Nothing else to watch. Thinkin of just taking the home team, but I know absolutely nothing about either. Thanks..VD

  
  Lean Ohio, Ohio 1H, 1H UNDER
  
  Believe that Buff's QB is suspended for the 1st quarter and they are dinged up at the RB position. Gill is a conservative coach and may try and keep it close to the vest early. Ohio is a better team, hard to factor in mid-week HFA for a MAC game.
• vegas dix Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Horn thanks alot.. Will go with it..
• Mustang Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  horn wrote:

  Lean Ohio, Ohio 1H, 1H UNDER
  
  Believe that Buff's QB is suspended for the 1st quarter and they are dinged up at the RB position. Gill is a conservative coach and may try and keep it close to the vest early. Ohio is a better team, hard to factor in mid-week HFA for a MAC game.

  
  Would think Ohio 1Q might be worth a look as well with this information -
  
  (from the Buffalo News)
  
  University at Buffalo sophomore quarterback Zach Maynard and wide receiver Terrell Jackson will both be held out of the first quarter of Tuesday's game against Ohio University because of an undisclosed violation of team policies, the university announced Monday evening.
  
  Redshirt freshman Jerry Davis will start at quarterback against the Bobcats.
  
  Junior tailback Ike Nduka (ankle) and sophomore cornerback Joe Petit (concussion) have been ruled out of the game due to injury. True freshman Jeffvon Gill will earn his first career start at tailback and will be backed up by junior Brandon Thermilus and senior Mario Henry.
  
  The 6-foot-1, 200-pound Davis is 5-for-10 for 59 yards in limited playing time behind Maynard, who has started all nine games for the Bulls this season.
  
  Jackson is a backup behind senior Brett Hamlin and has 11 receptions for 103 yards.
  
  
  Nduka is their leading rusher, with around 600 yards @6.2 yds. per carry and 6 TDs. (leader in all 3 catagories)
• FrankOBeans Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  would you take smu at -8?
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  FrankOBeans wrote:

  would you take smu at -8?

  
  No.
• vegas dix Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Horn u watchin this game. Nice call u like over sec half
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  vegas dix wrote:

  Horn u watchin this game. Nice call u like over sec half

  
  Not watching it, watching Jimmy the Greek special
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Added: 115 West Virginia/Cincy OVER 53.5
• OSU4Life133 Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Hey Horn- Some totals I like this week: (Your thoughts)
  
  129 Michigan St
  130 Purdue (53)
  
  139 Texas
  140 Baylor (51)
  
  149 Nebraska
  150 Kansas (42)
  
  I like all the over's in these games. Texas & Nebraska have been lights out on Defense this year, but both on the road this week. I can see Baylor and Kansas putting some scores up this week to flirt with these overs.
  
  Mich St./Purdue- both bad Defenses and both can score pretty easily against Big 10 teams.
  
  Thanks for any input- OSU
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  OSU4Life133 wrote:

  Hey Horn- Some totals I like this week: (Your thoughts)
  
  129 Michigan St
  130 Purdue (53)
  
  139 Texas
  140 Baylor (51)
  
  149 Nebraska
  150 Kansas (42)
  
  I like all the over's in these games. Texas & Nebraska have been lights out on Defense this year, but both on the road this week. I can see Baylor and Kansas putting some scores up this week to flirt with these overs.
  
  Mich St./Purdue- both bad Defenses and both can score pretty easily against Big 10 teams.
  
  Thanks for any input- OSU

  
  I like the NU/KU game most. Think what this total would have been just a few weeks ago. I gotta believe that both teams gotta get it straightened out at some point here soon.
  
  No real opinion on the other two, lines seem about right to me.
  
  GL
• patbateman Junior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Horn, any lean on the Toledo-CMU game tonight?
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Didn't look at it. No opinion.
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Central Michigan -3.5 1st Quarter (-125)
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  151 UAB/Memphis OVER 63.5
• GrapeApe Senior Member

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  Keep on Trucking.....got my golashes(however it is spelled) on while laying in my hammock,,,,ok its not really a hammock it is a tub in my yard I put some hay in......
  
  Anyways, Loved the interaction with you and 5 and dime.....I don't know what to do there...wanted to take Fresno but I suck at cfb....so you are probably a winner there!!!
  
  Quick question about futures....Say there was no way possible Uconn could win 7 right now....like they were 2-5 with 3 remaining. Would they hold your money til the season ends or would you get it now? Always wonder how it works.
  
  Good Luck Buddy
• horn Super Moderator

  November 2009 edited November 2009

  GrapeApe wrote:

  Keep on Trucking.....got my golashes(however it is spelled) on while laying in my hammock,,,,ok its not really a hammock it is a tub in my yard I put some hay in......
  
  Anyways, Loved the interaction with you and 5 and dime.....I don't know what to do there...wanted to take Fresno but I suck at cfb....so you are probably a winner there!!!
  
  Quick question about futures....Say there was no way possible Uconn could win 7 right now....like they were 2-5 with 3 remaining. Would they hold your money til the season ends or would you get it now? Always wonder how it works.
  
  Good Luck Buddy

  
  They would hold the money until the conclusion of the regular season on something like that.
  
  It was a good discussion with 5and10. Wish we could have more of it here without people taking things personally, like we see all too often.
  
  If you want to take Fresno, by all means go for it. Don't let me talk you off of it.
  
  Headed back to my hammock now.. GL