Horn
I am looking at 2 games this week and would like your thoughts. BYU -17.5, Northwestern -17. I like them both and think these lines will be close to 21 by the weekend. What do you think
Thanks
Horn
I am looking at 2 games this week and would like your thoughts. BYU -17.5, Northwestern -17. I like them both and think these lines will be close to 21 by the weekend. What do you think
Thanks
Let me get back to you on these buddy. Neither really interest me to be honest, and neither dog interest me. I'll try and give you some thoughts later or tomorrow.
Missed it Horn.
My fault I guess....but thought you were editing your original post's in these threads when you added a play. Will this be different for halftimes?
Horn...do you have any idea why North Carolina is only favored by four vs. UConn? Seems like a no brainer to me (which has to make ya wonder).
I know UNC had a bunch of blocked punts last year but UConn lost their best players. I just don't see them replacing them. Is it because it's @UConn? UNC even played a 1AA last week so they had even more time to prepare for UConn.
A few bad breaks away from a real solid opening week horn, but these things happen, looks like you got a few winners on board already for week 2. I'm all over UCLA this weekend, everyone lets not forget that Tenn has to go down to the swamp the following week to take on the Gators and don't think thats not on the minds of players and especially Lane Kiffin. Thats the big game of the early season for Tenn while UCLA gets their shot to make a splash on the national scene here... I'm not saying Tenn won't be prepared but this is going to be a good game and 8 points is a lot
Also, seeing the public all over Navy so maybe the line will jump up and get another point to play with..
Horn, you have an opinion on Ohio State - USC game? Was a little surprised to see the 7 point spread at home for OSU... I made the mistake of backing them last year and might have to once again. I think Pryor was able to move the ball using his feet last year even with that defense as good as it was. I know the result was not pretty but the defense is not nearly as mean this year and playing on the road with a freshman quarterback i think is going to be trouble. USC might get the win but I think it should be a close game with the defenses shining... Does the lack of effort last this weekend for the buckeyes concern you or do you throw that game out as a look ahead.
UT won 63-7 against the worst team in the country and all of a sudden they have an prolific offense? UCLA will force Clausen to throw the ball to beat them and that's not something I would be very comfortable with against a BCS opponent with one of it's leagues top defensive units. The frosh LT Sua'Filo for UCLA is very capable, followed this kid's recruiting for a couple years in HS and was impressed with his play against SDSU. The oddsmakers over reacted to the UCLA and UT box scores from week 1. The line was corrected to 7 and is now in the ball park of where it should be.
I bolded one statement you made. Clausen is going to have to throw the ball effectively to win this football game, IMO. Both teams are very similar in their youth, defensive prowess and lack of a game changing QB. UT will be without some key offensive players again and I'm not buying that this offense will be Top 50 nationally this year. 2 scores is a ton in a game that will be lined in the high 30's or low 40's. GL
Horn, you may wanna check the depth chart of UT... a Clausen hasnt been a QB there for a couple years. May wanna try Crompton.
Think you may of drank too much whiskey on Saturday...understandable
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I responded with Clawson b.c he was their Offensive Coordinator......UCLA's freshman LT got dominated by a senior in highschool by the name of Chris Martin (ND commit) in summer camps a year ago......UCLA's youth is in places that you do not want youth such as OLine and Qb compared to Tennessee's which is in the skilled positions. UCla is traveling across the country and Tenn wil not have to throw the ball.....very experienced Oline with a stable of backs......I respect the majority of your picks Horn but this is not one of them....GL
Computer is not working right now guys. On my phone, can't respond to everyone right now but I will get to everyones comments asap as well as try and get my thoughts up on the wagers.
Let me chime in on the UCLA/TENN game. first off UCLA has only one freshman in sua-filo on the line he is very advanced for being a freshman the others on the line are Maiava who was all big 12 as a freshman(transfer) eddie williams(jc transfer) Baca(sophmore) mike harris(sophmore). Kevin prince has been in the program now going on 2 years and is very football smart the kid, had he not been hurt his senior year would have been top 10 in the nation out of high school! The bottom line is TENN will not be running the ball like they did against WKU the defense that UCLA has is just to good! As far as Chris martin your right he plays for ND and the last time I checked no one could stop him!
Burger, I hadnt thought about how to approach HT's as far as editing my top post. I'll think of the best way to do it soon.
Kevo, I think this is going to be a popular bet and that concerns me. I made the line higher and will talk about why I made the bet soon.
BigTimer, Ya it was one of those weekends where I lost 6 bets but only felt like 3 were deserving losers. tOSU's lack of speed in the trenches and piss poor rush defense are my biggest concerns. Gun to my head, I play the home team but not interested right now. Didn't cap it very thoroughly yet though.
AUBparlay, clausen, crompton, cesar, carbonara, coleman. whatever that guy's name is - he is not what I consider to be an above average football player.
fgrauzer, appreicate the opinion and time to clarify. will try and get my thoughts up on that game ASAP.
vegasdix, 9 not much diff than 7.5 in terms of likely outcomes, would wait for the kiffin kool aid to keep gettin drank and hope for a 10. I would hold off if that's the line you currently see.
Seems weird, huh? Fellow SBC team, FAU just went to Lincoln and got spanked by the score of 49-3 last week. FAU was in the neighborhood of +22 or so. FAU was a bowl team in 08', Arkansas State - was not. So, how is the Arky State number so similar to last week's, where a fellow SBC member got spanked? I think that looking deeper into the box score may do a little better in telling the tale.
Both teams finished with 22 first downs. Nebraska had a 490-358 yardage edge. FAU passed for 5 more yards than Nebraksa, finishing with 236 through the air. As expected, FAU failed to establish the run game and Nebraska had a 259 (8.1 ypc)-122 edge.
In the 1st quarter, nebraska ran 12 plays for 52 yards, including a 28 yard TD pass. FAU ran 20 plays for 73 yards and had a FG attempt fail. FAU had a 10 play drive leading up to the failed FG.
Early in the second, Nebraska hooked up on a 51 yd TD pass. FAU responded with another 11 play 5 min. 30 second, 56 yard drive that led to a 21 yard FG when FAU couldn't punch it in with 1st and goal on the 4. Nebraska then responded with a long drive and converted a 4th and 1 on the goal line to get 7. FAU moved the ball to midfield but couldn't answer as the half expired.
At this point, FAU was in trouble and had to pretty much abandon the game plan. Rusty Smith turned it over 3 times in the 3rd and the rest was history as Helu ran wild on FAU.
Can't say that I'm too surprised that Nebraska ran for so many yards, against arguably the SBC's worst front 7. FAU moved the ball plenty, they just shot themselves in the foot when it came to scoring points.
Why do I think this game will be different?
Experience, Defense and Offensive balance. ASU may play in the SBC, but they are very different than FAU. I am concerned some about the Wolves inexperienced OL against a good Nebraska front. The good news, is while inexperienced in terms of returning OL starts - it looks to be an older group with several upperclassmen. They certainly have good size in the trenches for a SBC team.
Arkansas State hosted Miss. Valley State and won the game 61-0. They had a 26-5 1st down edge and 496-69 yardage edge and held MVS to 0-12 on 3rd downs. This is the way you are supposed to handle business against a team that is a class below you. I always look more at defensive numbers when looking at a FBS vs. lower level team and Arky State was impressive in this one. I think that this is the type of game that is big for a team in opening the season and building confidence, before hearded into a tough atmosphere in Lincoln. ASU returns their top 6 rushers, 7 of the top 9 WR's, 13 of their top 16 tacklers and a relatively intact ST's unit that features a fine Kicker. I like the senior leadership of Leonard and Arnold on the offensive side of the ball. Both players are dynamic and provide a sense of balance offensively. They return a starting DL that had 19 sacks between the four of them a season ago. This is a disruptive group on defense that finds its way into the opposing teams backfields. They were top 35 in both pass efficiency defense and rush defense nationally in 08', and return 8 starters. I fully expect this DL to surprise Nebraska some as the gap between FAU's and ASU's units will be sizable. I expect ASU to load up the box and force Lee to throw. I don't see Nebraska having a field day on a solid secondary. They will get yardage, just don't envision them marching up and down the field.
I love the situation. How is Nebraska going to be excited for this game?
- Revenge game in Blacksburg, VA against VT next week.
- Just "crushed" fellow SBC member, FAU at home
- I like the fact it's not the first home game. Just another pit stop before the Top 25 showdown at VT
- Does Pelini really wanna show Beamer anymore SEC blitz packages before he gets to VA?
On the other hand:
- ASU went to Texas A&M in week 1 last year, and won outright 18-14 as 19 point dogs
-Coming off a tune up game where they stayed vanilla and played fundamental football. Should have confidence
- Playing into a bye week, should guarantee full focus on this game.
-ASU 8-7 ATS last 15 as a road dog, coming off a 3-8 ATS campaign LY, expect this team to pay bettors by season's end
Tons of corrections and adjustments made by the oddsmakers after week one's results. After seeing some of those corrections; why is this one only a tick higher than last week's against FAU? Couple reasons, IMO: 49-3 doesn't paint an accurate pitcure from last week's game in Lincoln. ASU is a much better matchup against Neb than FAU and their poverty stricken defense and one dimensional passing attack. I think the oddsmakers dangled a piece of meat out there, asking for Nebraska money here to get even after the bath they took on them in week 1. I truly expect this to be a legitimate good football game where the outcome is not decided until the fourth quarter.
I will not edit my top post anymore. I just don't feel comfortable doing it, when only select others have the ability to do so. I know that means it may be tough to find some plays, so i will start new threads for any 1H/HT plays. I will also start a new thread for any total bets I make and keep them in a separate weekly thread. I think a long thread is beneficial with discussion and I still encourage that 100%, I also want to be conscious of some people that have said it's tough to find my plays deep in a thread. Trying to find a middle ground and this is what I came up with. GL
horn, I go through a local for my lines unfortunately, so I don't have access to the opening lines. If I may ask, can you comment on what numbers you would play up to for the games above. I have put in brackets lines available to me. Thanks for all the hard work you put in!
Horn Why not Auburn again this week. Ride the wave!!THey win this by 20 i think? What are your thoughts??14.5 seems pretty good?
I'm not a fan of laying double digits in SEC conf. play. I think the line is sharp and would like to see both teams play again. I watched the tapes from both of their games last weekend and have a few things I wanna see before I get involved in conf. play.
I think this is a great spot for a Washington State team to get a much needed win. Hawaii hasn't exactly dazzled away from the island in the past. Granted, not an incredibly long road trip; but their past results on the mainland don't impress me much.
WSU is coming off a 2-11 08' campaign. Statistically, they couldn't be much worse. I don't give them a free pass, but Wulff was left in a bad spot from the previous regime and the Cougars couldn't stay healthy. This year, they return 14 starters from 08' and I do think they will be noticably improved. Maybe not record wise, but from a competitive standpoint.
Hawaii returns a big chunk of their offense from 08' from their 7-7 campaign. They are painfully thin on defense, returning just two starters from a defense that allowed 36 ppg on the mainland. The strength of the team is obviously going to be the passing offense as usual. However, I don't think that this passing attack will be near as potent as they have been in year's past.
Washington State got beat at home by Stanford to open the season. The score was 39-13, but I think this box score is again - a bit misleading. They were only out FD'd 20-17 and outgained 481-351. The bulk of the damage came on the ground as Stanford rumbled for 288 yards on 42 carries. They did a pretty nice job with Stanford's future star QB - Andrew Luck. Luck went 11-23 and a TD on a 63 yard pass to Owusu. WSU also allowed and 85 yard special teams TD, early in the second half. They did a nice job offensively as both Lopina and Lobbesteal were effective in the passing game. As expected, Hardy and Montgomery split carries and accounted for 97 yards of their rushing yards on 27 carries. That is impressive against a good Stanford front. Special teams hurt WSU and gave Stanford some points and short fields. They played turnover free football and that is certainly a step in the right direction after 08'.
Hawaii played Central Arkansas on the island in week 1. They held on for a 25-20 win, while trailing at the half. They did not take care of the football and had 4 TO's. QB Greg Alexander threw an INT and they lost 3 fumbles. They outgained UCA 415-270 with 380 of those yards coming from Alexander through the air and on the ground. They essentially had no productivity from the RB's as they rushed 12 times for 35 yards. They only had a 17-16 FD advantage of a much lesser opponent. Again, this lack of running game is going to be problematic for Hawaii, as I'm not a fan of the poor decision making - slow released Qb Alexander. I don't think you can sugar coat how worrisome a 25-20 win in Hawaii over UCA really is for Hawaii.
WSU went to the island and fell short 24-10 in the 08' season finale. Hawaii struggled with WSU pass rush in that game as they allowed 4 sacks. Pass protection has been a problem for UH and as I alluded to earlier, it has a lot to do with Alexander at QB. UH had a nice day through the air but the rushing attack was stifled. Polar opposites for WSU in that game, they couldn't get the passing game going , but ran the football somewhat effectively. WSU was -2 in TO's in that game. No doubt an emotional flat spot for WSU, as they traveled to Hawaii just one week after an incredibly emotional win for the Apple Cup. Hawaii was playing into a bye week and had a tune up game against Idaho the previous week in their 4 game home stretch.
I think WSU's loss against Stanford is more impressive than UH's win over UCA at home. UH loses 11 of their top 13 tacklers from 08'. They do return almost the full compliment of RB's, but the running game can be called extremely suspect at best. Stanford had their way on the ground against WSU but didn't blow me away with their passing attack. Yes Luck is young, but I would take him right now over Alexander without thinking twice about it. UH is going to have to rely on Alexander's play for the passing and most of the running attack to boot. I think this is risky business for any team to put that much faith on one player, that I am obviously not high on at all. I think WSU has a pair of solid QB's and RB's that all bring unique strengths to the table. I expect them to continue to establish the run game as they likely won't fall behind and be taken out of their gameplan, as they did against Stanford. Any team that is -25 in TO's the previous year, will likely show marked improvements the following year. The UH defense is extremely inexperienced and the majority of the group will be playing their first game away from home.
This game is being played in Seattle. WSU is 4-2 their last 6 against UH while playing host in Seattle. In the event of inclement weather, always possible in Seattle, the balanced WSU offense has a definitive edge over a one dimensional UH offense that hasn't shown good resolve away from home in the past. Not sure how UH opened as the favorite, but I will gladly take advantage of a + ML or bonus FG.
Side Note: There is also a strong gay community in Seattle and McMackin may be receiving some hate mail after his tirade about ND and certain people's sexual orientation. Can't properly prepare the team??
Comments
NOTRE DAME (-4)
It's looking more and more like a play on ND. My only concern is ND's defense keeping up with Michigan's offensive speed.
I am looking at 2 games this week and would like your thoughts. BYU -17.5, Northwestern -17. I like them both and think these lines will be close to 21 by the weekend. What do you think
Thanks
What do you think of taking Miami (+3) 2nd Half?
I already have them on the ML
If you have them to win +200 or so, no need to take them to win at -110, IMO
Let me get back to you on these buddy. Neither really interest me to be honest, and neither dog interest me. I'll try and give you some thoughts later or tomorrow.
+100
?
Makes the game line Miami -1.. at +100
You already have Miami ML I believe at +200, I wouldn't bet it again
My fault I guess....but thought you were editing your original post's in these threads when you added a play. Will this be different for halftimes?
Thanks and good luck
burger
I know UNC had a bunch of blocked punts last year but UConn lost their best players. I just don't see them replacing them. Is it because it's @UConn? UNC even played a 1AA last week so they had even more time to prepare for UConn.
Any thoughts? Thanks bro.
Also, seeing the public all over Navy so maybe the line will jump up and get another point to play with..
Horn, you have an opinion on Ohio State - USC game? Was a little surprised to see the 7 point spread at home for OSU... I made the mistake of backing them last year and might have to once again. I think Pryor was able to move the ball using his feet last year even with that defense as good as it was. I know the result was not pretty but the defense is not nearly as mean this year and playing on the road with a freshman quarterback i think is going to be trouble. USC might get the win but I think it should be a close game with the defenses shining... Does the lack of effort last this weekend for the buckeyes concern you or do you throw that game out as a look ahead.
Horn, you may wanna check the depth chart of UT... a Clausen hasnt been a QB there for a couple years. May wanna try Crompton.
Think you may of drank too much whiskey on Saturday...understandable
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Kevo, I think this is going to be a popular bet and that concerns me. I made the line higher and will talk about why I made the bet soon.
BigTimer, Ya it was one of those weekends where I lost 6 bets but only felt like 3 were deserving losers. tOSU's lack of speed in the trenches and piss poor rush defense are my biggest concerns. Gun to my head, I play the home team but not interested right now. Didn't cap it very thoroughly yet though.
AUBparlay, clausen, crompton, cesar, carbonara, coleman. whatever that guy's name is - he is not what I consider to be an above average football player.
fgrauzer, appreicate the opinion and time to clarify. will try and get my thoughts up on that game ASAP.
vegasdix, 9 not much diff than 7.5 in terms of likely outcomes, would wait for the kiffin kool aid to keep gettin drank and hope for a 10. I would hold off if that's the line you currently see.
Widely Available
Arkansas State +24.5
Seems weird, huh? Fellow SBC team, FAU just went to Lincoln and got spanked by the score of 49-3 last week. FAU was in the neighborhood of +22 or so. FAU was a bowl team in 08', Arkansas State - was not. So, how is the Arky State number so similar to last week's, where a fellow SBC member got spanked? I think that looking deeper into the box score may do a little better in telling the tale.
Both teams finished with 22 first downs. Nebraska had a 490-358 yardage edge. FAU passed for 5 more yards than Nebraksa, finishing with 236 through the air. As expected, FAU failed to establish the run game and Nebraska had a 259 (8.1 ypc)-122 edge.
In the 1st quarter, nebraska ran 12 plays for 52 yards, including a 28 yard TD pass. FAU ran 20 plays for 73 yards and had a FG attempt fail. FAU had a 10 play drive leading up to the failed FG.
Early in the second, Nebraska hooked up on a 51 yd TD pass. FAU responded with another 11 play 5 min. 30 second, 56 yard drive that led to a 21 yard FG when FAU couldn't punch it in with 1st and goal on the 4. Nebraska then responded with a long drive and converted a 4th and 1 on the goal line to get 7. FAU moved the ball to midfield but couldn't answer as the half expired.
At this point, FAU was in trouble and had to pretty much abandon the game plan. Rusty Smith turned it over 3 times in the 3rd and the rest was history as Helu ran wild on FAU.
Can't say that I'm too surprised that Nebraska ran for so many yards, against arguably the SBC's worst front 7. FAU moved the ball plenty, they just shot themselves in the foot when it came to scoring points.
Why do I think this game will be different?
Experience, Defense and Offensive balance. ASU may play in the SBC, but they are very different than FAU. I am concerned some about the Wolves inexperienced OL against a good Nebraska front. The good news, is while inexperienced in terms of returning OL starts - it looks to be an older group with several upperclassmen. They certainly have good size in the trenches for a SBC team.
Arkansas State hosted Miss. Valley State and won the game 61-0. They had a 26-5 1st down edge and 496-69 yardage edge and held MVS to 0-12 on 3rd downs. This is the way you are supposed to handle business against a team that is a class below you. I always look more at defensive numbers when looking at a FBS vs. lower level team and Arky State was impressive in this one. I think that this is the type of game that is big for a team in opening the season and building confidence, before hearded into a tough atmosphere in Lincoln. ASU returns their top 6 rushers, 7 of the top 9 WR's, 13 of their top 16 tacklers and a relatively intact ST's unit that features a fine Kicker. I like the senior leadership of Leonard and Arnold on the offensive side of the ball. Both players are dynamic and provide a sense of balance offensively. They return a starting DL that had 19 sacks between the four of them a season ago. This is a disruptive group on defense that finds its way into the opposing teams backfields. They were top 35 in both pass efficiency defense and rush defense nationally in 08', and return 8 starters. I fully expect this DL to surprise Nebraska some as the gap between FAU's and ASU's units will be sizable. I expect ASU to load up the box and force Lee to throw. I don't see Nebraska having a field day on a solid secondary. They will get yardage, just don't envision them marching up and down the field.
I love the situation. How is Nebraska going to be excited for this game?
- Revenge game in Blacksburg, VA against VT next week.
- Just "crushed" fellow SBC member, FAU at home
- I like the fact it's not the first home game. Just another pit stop before the Top 25 showdown at VT
- Does Pelini really wanna show Beamer anymore SEC blitz packages before he gets to VA?
On the other hand:
- ASU went to Texas A&M in week 1 last year, and won outright 18-14 as 19 point dogs
-Coming off a tune up game where they stayed vanilla and played fundamental football. Should have confidence
- Playing into a bye week, should guarantee full focus on this game.
-ASU 8-7 ATS last 15 as a road dog, coming off a 3-8 ATS campaign LY, expect this team to pay bettors by season's end
Tons of corrections and adjustments made by the oddsmakers after week one's results. After seeing some of those corrections; why is this one only a tick higher than last week's against FAU? Couple reasons, IMO: 49-3 doesn't paint an accurate pitcure from last week's game in Lincoln. ASU is a much better matchup against Neb than FAU and their poverty stricken defense and one dimensional passing attack. I think the oddsmakers dangled a piece of meat out there, asking for Nebraska money here to get even after the bath they took on them in week 1. I truly expect this to be a legitimate good football game where the outcome is not decided until the fourth quarter.
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>6-15</TD><TD>4-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>358</TD><TD>490</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>236</TD><TD>231</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>20-41</TD><TD>17-25</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.8</TD><TD>9.2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>259</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>32</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>8.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>11-67</TD><TD>9-86</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>32:18</TD><TD>27:42</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I will not edit my top post anymore. I just don't feel comfortable doing it, when only select others have the ability to do so. I know that means it may be tough to find some plays, so i will start new threads for any 1H/HT plays. I will also start a new thread for any total bets I make and keep them in a separate weekly thread. I think a long thread is beneficial with discussion and I still encourage that 100%, I also want to be conscious of some people that have said it's tough to find my plays deep in a thread. Trying to find a middle ground and this is what I came up with. GL
Arkansas State +24.5 [I have 23.5]
Washington State +3.5 [I have +2]
UCLA +10 [I have +9]
LA Tech +7.5 [I have +7]
UNLV +7 [I have +7]
horn, I go through a local for my lines unfortunately, so I don't have access to the opening lines. If I may ask, can you comment on what numbers you would play up to for the games above. I have put in brackets lines available to me. Thanks for all the hard work you put in!
I'm not a fan of laying double digits in SEC conf. play. I think the line is sharp and would like to see both teams play again. I watched the tapes from both of their games last weekend and have a few things I wanna see before I get involved in conf. play.
I think this is a great spot for a Washington State team to get a much needed win. Hawaii hasn't exactly dazzled away from the island in the past. Granted, not an incredibly long road trip; but their past results on the mainland don't impress me much.
WSU is coming off a 2-11 08' campaign. Statistically, they couldn't be much worse. I don't give them a free pass, but Wulff was left in a bad spot from the previous regime and the Cougars couldn't stay healthy. This year, they return 14 starters from 08' and I do think they will be noticably improved. Maybe not record wise, but from a competitive standpoint.
Hawaii returns a big chunk of their offense from 08' from their 7-7 campaign. They are painfully thin on defense, returning just two starters from a defense that allowed 36 ppg on the mainland. The strength of the team is obviously going to be the passing offense as usual. However, I don't think that this passing attack will be near as potent as they have been in year's past.
Washington State got beat at home by Stanford to open the season. The score was 39-13, but I think this box score is again - a bit misleading. They were only out FD'd 20-17 and outgained 481-351. The bulk of the damage came on the ground as Stanford rumbled for 288 yards on 42 carries. They did a pretty nice job with Stanford's future star QB - Andrew Luck. Luck went 11-23 and a TD on a 63 yard pass to Owusu. WSU also allowed and 85 yard special teams TD, early in the second half. They did a nice job offensively as both Lopina and Lobbesteal were effective in the passing game. As expected, Hardy and Montgomery split carries and accounted for 97 yards of their rushing yards on 27 carries. That is impressive against a good Stanford front. Special teams hurt WSU and gave Stanford some points and short fields. They played turnover free football and that is certainly a step in the right direction after 08'.
Hawaii played Central Arkansas on the island in week 1. They held on for a 25-20 win, while trailing at the half. They did not take care of the football and had 4 TO's. QB Greg Alexander threw an INT and they lost 3 fumbles. They outgained UCA 415-270 with 380 of those yards coming from Alexander through the air and on the ground. They essentially had no productivity from the RB's as they rushed 12 times for 35 yards. They only had a 17-16 FD advantage of a much lesser opponent. Again, this lack of running game is going to be problematic for Hawaii, as I'm not a fan of the poor decision making - slow released Qb Alexander. I don't think you can sugar coat how worrisome a 25-20 win in Hawaii over UCA really is for Hawaii.
WSU went to the island and fell short 24-10 in the 08' season finale. Hawaii struggled with WSU pass rush in that game as they allowed 4 sacks. Pass protection has been a problem for UH and as I alluded to earlier, it has a lot to do with Alexander at QB. UH had a nice day through the air but the rushing attack was stifled. Polar opposites for WSU in that game, they couldn't get the passing game going , but ran the football somewhat effectively. WSU was -2 in TO's in that game. No doubt an emotional flat spot for WSU, as they traveled to Hawaii just one week after an incredibly emotional win for the Apple Cup. Hawaii was playing into a bye week and had a tune up game against Idaho the previous week in their 4 game home stretch.
I think WSU's loss against Stanford is more impressive than UH's win over UCA at home. UH loses 11 of their top 13 tacklers from 08'. They do return almost the full compliment of RB's, but the running game can be called extremely suspect at best. Stanford had their way on the ground against WSU but didn't blow me away with their passing attack. Yes Luck is young, but I would take him right now over Alexander without thinking twice about it. UH is going to have to rely on Alexander's play for the passing and most of the running attack to boot. I think this is risky business for any team to put that much faith on one player, that I am obviously not high on at all. I think WSU has a pair of solid QB's and RB's that all bring unique strengths to the table. I expect them to continue to establish the run game as they likely won't fall behind and be taken out of their gameplan, as they did against Stanford. Any team that is -25 in TO's the previous year, will likely show marked improvements the following year. The UH defense is extremely inexperienced and the majority of the group will be playing their first game away from home.
This game is being played in Seattle. WSU is 4-2 their last 6 against UH while playing host in Seattle. In the event of inclement weather, always possible in Seattle, the balanced WSU offense has a definitive edge over a one dimensional UH offense that hasn't shown good resolve away from home in the past. Not sure how UH opened as the favorite, but I will gladly take advantage of a + ML or bonus FG.
Side Note: There is also a strong gay community in Seattle and McMackin may be receiving some hate mail after his tirade about ND and certain people's sexual orientation. Can't properly prepare the team??
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>5-13</TD><TD>4-14</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>2-3</TD><TD>0-1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>481</TD><TD>351</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>193</TD><TD>247</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>11-24</TD><TD>19-30</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>8.0</TD><TD>8.2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>288</TD><TD>104</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>34</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>6.9</TD><TD>3.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-55</TD><TD>5-24</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>31:53</TD><TD>28:07</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>