I'm out of the Stock Market...who is with me?

Comments

• gatch333 Banned

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  you know its sad when wagering on baseball is more secure than the stock market.
• brmapes Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  Not sure...I still like riding my AAPL went I bought it at 90 and now over 150
  
  I did get out of Ruby Tuesday stock...got it at .90 and sold it at 8.00
• ChaseG Banned

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  It's much harder to make money betting on baseball than if you study the market and are educated. Not smart.
• gatch333 Banned

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  ChaseG wrote:

  It's much harder to make money betting on baseball than if you study the market and are educated. Not smart.

  
  i think ur missing the point of my comment.
• homerplayer Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  ChaseG wrote:

  It's much harder to make money betting on baseball than if you study the market and are educated. Not smart.

  
  i must beg to differ....think you are missing the overall point. when the president of the United States delays the annual mid-summer budget report, until almost fall, there can't be good news coming. the only news coming is economy worse that they said and unemployment going over 10%. if it was good news, he would be on every show, including SC. i mean it must be real bad, he is the boy who cried crisis and would use bad news to his advantage again, so it must be reeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaallll bad, excpet for wall st and goldman sachs that turned a 3.4 billion dollar profit.....no feigned outrage? Paulsen should be in jail. the American people know next to nothing about what all these crooked dems and reps do.
  
  furthermore, the amount of time required to sift and find the one value stock out of a few thousand, not worth it. why kill myself trying to find that one company out of a thousand that will see their stock take off? so i can pay brokerage fees on top of the taxes the government will take? no thanks.
  
  think i'll stick with what is working so far, but divert more funds to it, thus increasing my return. MG will only charge me $9.99 to move cash around.
  
  finally, when i get a 91% return on a -110 wager as compared to the average 7% on the stock market (not this year buddy), and have it tax free......which one should i do?
  
  GL
• homerplayer Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  gatch333 wrote:

  you know its sad when wagering on baseball is more secure than the stock market.

  
  at least the you have an honest shot in baseball
  
  as for the market, the fix is in
• ChaseG Banned

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  after bullshit in the twins game it's safe to say you're better off going to college than sitting on your ass trying to guess winners on these games.
• kkirk Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  I think the market makes new highs into the 1100's (S&P 500) by year end. You've got low expectations (for earnings, etc.), accomodative Fed policy and still lots of bearish sentiment and worry (a contrary indicator, markets go up when there's worry, consternation and fear; down when there's complacency. In fact, I would say the fact that there's a posting on BettingTalk with lots of negative feelings about the market is a sign that the market will go up). Play the TNA, QLD (which are 3X ETF's) for the rest of the year and make a nice return.
• payroll Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  I agree with kkirk, the expectations are so unbelievably low that stock prices are still rising. The key is it is not present earnings, but expected FUTURE earnings that will drive prices up. Since everyone tends to think the future is going to be better than the present, the stock market shouldn't be dead. CAT profits dropped 66%, but the stock popped 10% at one point yesterday because some suit said profits would be better going forward. That said, some statement Bernake or some general feeling that the market has gone up too much, too quick (like today) will send things rocketing downward. Sometimes it's hard to tell when that would be. The experts don't know shi* either. A couple weeks ago, the heads were saying what a rough summer it was going to be when things were dropping, then the markets surge. For this reason, money management is critical in both.
  
  For me, sportsbetting and the stock markets are equivalents now and both require strict money management to make money. Everyone gets down on gambling thinking it's all or nothing. It isn't if you start with a large enough payroll and a strict money management system, it's very hard to lose everything and watching this board, using a good system, you will win. I pounded the Tigers last night - perfect situation. You have to be as patient in sports as in stocks and not play a game/buy a stock just for something to do. In the stock market, you must never put yourself in a position to lose more than 8% on a stock. Put a stop there and prevent any substantial losses. Same thing in baseball. Don't risk too much of your roll on any one play.
  
  My strategy has been to follow Investors Business Daily (IBD) regularly and buy in at their recommended buy points from their top 100 stock list (IBD 100). I can post these if it would be helpful. Alot of these stocks are the Chinese stocks, which have done pretty well. Alot have gone up a great deal in 2009 so they may not be the best to buy in at the moment. See FUQI, CYOU, CTRP, SNDA, NTES, LFT, PWRD, SOHU, for example. Ridiculous increases. FUQI has been IBD's number 1 rated stock for days. It dropped but then just surged from 15 to 23 in no time flat. Also check out FEED, but it may be on the downswing. I've made shi*loads off of FEED, but would wait and see if it drops to $5 or less again.
  
  One I bought yesterday, which can be still picked up is Priceline (PCLN), but only when it gets back to $119.24.
  
  both stocks and gambling take mucho discipline, but there is $ in both. For me, they have been equally as risky and equally as profitable when things go well. I see no huge difference. If I had my stock funds in my gambling account, I don't think I'd see a huge difference in how much is in the account day to day.
• homerplayer Senior Member

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  good info gentlemen. i just can't buy the company line anymore. Bush and his boys kept saying economy is fine and no troubles from the sub-prime looming and housing bubbles a few years back....collapse
  
  Barry and his boys say a stimulus will keep unemployment under 8% and now it is about to click over 10%. and when i hear statements like Biden saying "we have to spend our way out of bankruptcy" (pretty sure that is what courts suggest private citizens do when filing for brankruptcy) and some other douche say "it is going to be a jobless recovery" which violates the laws of physics, i get worried.
  
  beyond that, i still just see that big old ARM adjustment coming early next year and a new round of mortgage defaults. high unemployment is leading to states having huge losses in tax revenues. instead of cutting taxes to encourage business to hire more folks, or cutting taxes to encourage more folks to spend more, thus generate more revenue for states, taxes are about to go up.
  
  i also expect an uptick in the market, a very short lived and minimal bump, but as unemployment just sits at double digits and that next ARM reset hits, where will the bottom be?
  
  i just see much less risk in betting right now, as a whole hell of a lot of information is hidden from citizens both by the government and businesses, we have no idea of the shady shit going on....at least the worst thing i have to worry about in sports is which player is secretly hung over or breaking up with his boyfriend....
  
  GL
• Produce Banned

  July 2009 edited July 2009

  I believe Warren Buffet said it best....(quote in my sig)