NFL Favs ATS in 2008
homerplayer
Senior Member
wow, what a season. it is all math people. pretty sure Vegas is making money again.
last week favs were 5-10
this week is another losing week as they are once again 5-10 waiting on MNF for results.
so a 2 week total of 11-20 or 10-21
what does it mean? i don't let, i get too emotional about math
i can tell you after week 9 favs were 63-63 ATS
after week 13 they were 93-93 ATS
after week 16 they will be ???? ATS
last week favs were 5-10
this week is another losing week as they are once again 5-10 waiting on MNF for results.
so a 2 week total of 11-20 or 10-21
what does it mean? i don't let, i get too emotional about math
i can tell you after week 9 favs were 63-63 ATS
after week 13 they were 93-93 ATS
after week 16 they will be ???? ATS
Comments
I doubt it Vet. Problem with that theory is you would lose all of the times the favorite won the game but didn't cover the spread. Although the last two weeks you would have killed the books betting all the dogs on the ML
how much you +/- so far?
I have no idea either. Sounded like I was on to something, huh?
how dare you sir.
well, i doubled my bank roll 5 of the last 7 years, but kept taking it out at the end of the season, so while i have a big screen tv and a new $1,100 sectional sofa, i never thought ahead far enough to just keep the money in there and roll it over.
anyway, not a good year thus far.
let us just say that for simplicity, 2.5% of my bankroll equals one Unit
+ 37.28 Units
so far in basketball, using Ed's plays on your dime (thank you again) i am
+ 40.00 Units (not bad for 3 weeks of service....Ed is really good.)
looking to heat up in bowl season and hoping for a miracle with my work situation....
that is how i took it, that you wondered about my overall standing thus far. sorry.
and i don't mind if anyone asks me about my gains or losses in any sport at anytime. that is why i post my $10 betting tickets and admit my bets run between $20 and $50, to display my honesty.
so when i post my +/- units, it shouldn't be doubted....
i went outside my standard plays for Ed's stuff. which brings me to a question about Ed
he is 1-6 L7 on sides and that dropped him back under .500 for the season. I look at that as an opportunity to bet more on his 3 sides today. thoughts?
Are you trying to get me banned?
Here's the safest answer I can give you......Go back and check the year ending results for sides the last two years and make your decision based of that. Don't take my word, use facts.
One thing you have on your side if you do decide to bet more is the fact that some of the plays today are graded at 1.5 units, theoretically a stronger play than normal.
My point was referring to the possibilies that people chase units sometimes and they might over value their plays to "get even" or chase
Just because someone post a play for a higher value than their normal play doesn't necessarily mean they like it anymore than the last. There could be other reasons behind it
sorry Vette -
was trying to point out that if the system that favs operate in hovers around the 50% mark, much like a coin flip, as the 93-93 record after 13 weeks suggests, then to have two consecutive weeks where the percentage drops to 32 or 35 % depending on tonight's game, we have a large deviation from what we know to be normal results. we can even add week 14.
after week 14, favs were 102 - 100 ATS for 50.4 % winners.
i would not suggest blindly betting favs in week 17, but i do suggest we all toss around some ideas of why a system producing 50.4% winners over 202 games would prodcue a results that vary greatly from the known and expected results not once, but twice.
on the year, favs had
5 winnings weeks
9 losing weeks and
2 weeks of finishing even
i am hampered at this point by a lack of evidence for the last for years. i will start a spread sheet that tracks this however.
GL
1. That because dogs covered, the books lost money
...Not necessarily so. You can assume a majority of players won, but that does not mean the books were sided in favor of the players. If team A, the favorite, drew 100 wagers at -110 and team B drew 10 wagers at 1100 the books don't give diddly squat who won although that very public (90%) favorite was good. Exactly the same math applies to the dog, Team B, in reverse. Either way the book makes $100 by brokering the event, not gambling against his players. Only money determines whether or not the books won, the number of dogs or favorites can be irrelevant.
2. The 50.4% number should tell you the books are doing an excellent job of setting their lines. Deviations like the last couple weeks will be absorbed over the long haul, no problem.
Agreed, the book merely serves as a market place for speculators to plunk down money on which commidity will out perform the other and Vegas makes the money off of this. regardless of who covers, the 10% off the top keeps Vegas running smooth.
however, you err sir when you go on to say that just because more dogs cover does not equate to more money for Vegas. yes they want equal action on games and in most cases, i think we can agree, they probably get pretty darn close.
and we both know from betting % that the Public loves to back the favorite and the over.
i also know from discussions with bookies, one of the greatest lessons i ever learned, that every guy that bet with him had a pattern. some guys were heavy dog bettors. some guys were heavy on favorites. Thunder would call him Chuck, what's up buddy, got a figure?
so then if we know bettors have a distinct pattern and we know the majorty of said bettors back favorites, then we can safely assume that what is bad for favorites is good for Vegas.
also, the 52.4% B/E Point means unless you are switching it up, you are losing.
the pure math part says a correction will take place.
GL
% doesn't equal money. The people betting the most amount of money might be in the smaller %. Therefore it is very possible 65% of the people lost the game but so did the book because the 35% of people that won bet more than the 65% that lost.
once again, I apologize if this is repeat info........I'm lazy
Favorites are 158-74 SU for the year
Overs are 112/113 (and 8 )ties for the year
Kind of shoots down the betting all dogs on the year and make $ theory
Also shoots down the just pick the winner and don't worry about the spread theory too
lp