Betting Talk

A Smart Gambler!....Eagles versus Pats

BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
edited November 2007 in Sports Betting
Vegas insider has this line at 24.5....I'm betting it will hit 25, the 4pm favorites are looking bad right now. People will try to "win it all back" with New England and over.

Now to what to do tonight! I am going to bet 500.00 on Philly(+25), and 500.00 on the over(51). This is the SMART MOVE. It may or may not pan out, but think of it like this. If Philly gets to 13 points, the worst you can do is push. New England would need 39 to cover, and obviously 13+39=52 OVER. Of course it's no guarantee, but it's VERY high percentage.

This game could very well end 27-0, but I doubt it. Feely has been there, Westbrook is still awesome, and New England's Lb's are still old. So my call is BET PHILLY STRAIGHT, and BET THE OVER STRAIGHT...you'll either push or hit big!!!

After being KILLED Thanksgiving day,I absolutely DESTROYED my book today(Thank you lord).

Lastly....anyone remember this?.....One time in the mid-90's Ohio st was favored over someone by 34, and the total was 33! ITS TRUE!! It eliminated one of the parlay choices, there were only 3!!

Comments

  • AAASportsAAASports Banned
    edited November 2007
    I ready your post...twice....Who is the smart gambler?
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Anyone that follows the above advice.
  • AAASportsAAASports Banned
    edited November 2007
    Oh, OK....I thought it was somebody you knew..My bad..
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Well...me today(for once!)
  • AAASportsAAASports Banned
    edited November 2007
    Patriots D intensity likely not be there tonight. I agree that Philly can score 13..Good Luck..
  • franky87franky87 Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    the 4pm favorites dont have tom brady on there team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • JfrancoJfranco Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    thunderstorm u need a checkup from the neckup son!!!
    smart and gambler is an oxymoron 98% of the time
    you need years of experience.......a proven time tested system......no desire for action
    and then you can qualify...........oh yea and since the day you placed a bet you need to be in the green
    now if you did this for a living then you would need all the above and then some
  • JimCJimC Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    im with franky... the OVER is def the play.

    CAN ANYONE JUSTIFY GOING AGAINST THE PATS?!

    average margin of victory is what the spread is..
    lets take advantage of the last line on the pats until the super bowl and look for another 35 pt win
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    It's about making a high percentage(smart) bet tonight.....I'm not going to insult you, but you SHOULD be able to figure that all out ALL BY YOURSELF.

    Checkup from the neck up? Cant wait for the " your momma's so fat" jokes
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Right...over COULD be the play(i like it), but I'm simply saying bet PHILLY and over, and you have a LOW PERCENTAGE chance of losing. A VERY HIGH% of hitting 1, and a good % chance of hitting both.
  • JimCJimC Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    AJ FUCKING FEELY!!!!!!!!! U gotta be joking right?
  • mgg20mgg20 Member
    edited November 2007
    They just keep pushing the line higher until the pats don't cover, why would you expect philly to do any better than the rest of the teams that couldn't cover the spread against them?
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    This is not rocket science......It's about a chance at a high percentage play,some people (AAA) get it,some people(the majority) do not...If the game ended 27-14, 31-10, 34-10, 37-13, you would lose both sides on a NE/Over bet...If you bet Philly/Over...you need only 13 from philly to NOT LOSE MONEY, with a decent shot of hitting big....I hope you guys can figure this out on your own from here.

    Secondly....I know football isnt fixed(LOL), but after Thanksgiving's Fav/over Fav/under Fav/Over, and Fav/Over(USC-Ariz st), you think the gambling heavens are going to let another PRIME TIME, SINGLED OUT Favorite and over cover?
  • jamhatsjamhats Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Some people would say a smart gambling move would have been to bet on Georgia Tech last night. 90+ % was on Georgia. 90 + won. Just because Vegas is getting pounded one way doesn't mean it isn't going to hit. There are still people out there betting on the eagles, a smart gambler would not be one of them.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    There were PLENTY OF GAMES GOING ON AT THAT TIME!! How many tonight??..UMMM ONE!!!

    How much you think was bet on yesterdays game?(UGA-GTECH)........10-20 mill??

    Tonights?? umm....500-600 million?? Fair trade for Vegas right? We are not talking quantum physics here.
  • LuvtheHypeLuvtheHype Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Just an observation on what the statement that were made. I see your point, playign the percentages etc etc. Everyone seems to agree that the over is going to be hit. (NE scores 40+ at will). So how about taking the over (say at 51), and then if your comfortable on Philly scoring 13, why not take a teaser with Philly +30 and over 45. Now your 13 (or should say 16 if NE does get their 45) you win both. Just something to throw out there for discussion. Not sure if Andy reid will be in the mood for someone running up a score. Could see some interesting stuff tonight with an NFC team. This is not Buffalo here. Curious on some input.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Absolutely logical...but you mentioned betting on Philly...your in trouble now!
  • LuvtheHypeLuvtheHype Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    i said yes teaser Philly with +30. you just said if Philly get 14, your forcing NE to get 45.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    Like I said....a smart gambler.....
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2007
    damn, how did i miss this thread last night?

    Pats defense is suspect at best, and untested.

    I know the Cowboy game, which i still refer to 12 penalties in less than 30 minutes of game play on Dallas. Down by 7 driving for a tying score flagged on fourth and one conversion. Game over.

    This team has no toughness and Philly exposed last night, amongst other things
  • pholmespholmes Junior Member
    edited November 2007
    even though i never seen the post yesterday i had philly and the over just wish ihad the nuts to go big on both but thunderstorm is right dont listen to these critics they just want an argument whats your opinion on tonights game thunderstorm
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