Betting Talk

Question for board / Re: Poll Results

RightAngleRightAngle Admin
edited July 2007 in Sports Betting
According to the poll results above, over 30% of the voters believe that 15%-30% of professional games or MORE are fixed by players, officials, coaches, or other.

So I have to ask, why would anyone who thinks this way bet on sports? 10% juice plus 15-30%+ fixed games is ton of disadvantage to overcome!

Assuming you go 50% on fixed games, you'd have to hit over 54% on non-fixed games just to break even!


Edward

Comments

  • AAASportsAAASports Banned
    edited July 2007
    I was thinking the same thing Ed...lol...I think we would have to assume that these people are not betting, or that they think they have the ability to either stay away from these contests or that they have a knack of spotting the fixed games and winning with a high percentage on them...

    Or of course, they are in the actual fix, which would be very profitable of course!!
  • topplayertopplayer Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    It also could be that we have a bad habit started years ago and find that it makes the games alot more fun.
  • lentellentel Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    Yes but 69% of those answering your poll feel the fixing occurs between 0 and 15% of the time. A much small margin to over come
  • acecapperacecapper Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    also there are so many things to bet on...parlay, teasers, straights, props (which i think can easiest: its easier for a player to bet money on no runs in 1st, or in football/basketball betting on quarters )...theres no way of predicting which kind and game is fixed. plus we have 50/50 chance anyway, theres a chance our bets are on the same side as the fixing :) ....so its just not that simple a conclusion
  • topplayertopplayer Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    And how many people win at this stuff anyway on a regular basis. Ed is an excellent capper and studies the games greatly and barely finished in the black in college football this year.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited July 2007
    I don't think a enough people realize exactly how hard it is to win at sports betting long term.

    Long term 54% is considered a very good capper, 55% and above is considered world class.

    Keep in mind that at -110 you have to hit 52.4% of games just to break even, and that is if none of the games have a predetermined (fixed) outcome.

    The 10% vig is hard enough to overcome by itself, but IF 15-30% of games have a predetermined outcome as well, which many on this board seem to believe, then you have to be a very good capper just to break even, and a world class capper to make any money.


    Edward
  • triple htriple h Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    That is a real high % for people to think. Again I am going to go back and say you busted your ass handicapping a game and you play the game and win. You find out later that the game was fixed, but you won. Now I know the opposite could happen too. My point is with all the games we bet in a year we do not know which games are fixed and not fixed. The only thing that pisses me off is it does kill the integrity of the game. I dont know just babbling.
  • sheepsheep Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    stay with college----those NBA "stars--?" are way way overpaid anyway---
    it has been posted here on our BT also---SPOILED--i personally don't play the nba till playoff time---and i'm as a big a"deviate" as anyone here---(smile)
  • FridayFriday Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    cause were men
  • doggie29doggie29 Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    Ed,
    even if every single game was fixed, you still have a 50-50 shot of picking the right side. theres not many types of bets where you have a 50 percent shot of winning. Am not talking about juice or any of that, just that you still have a 50 percent chance of hitting the same side the refs might be on.
    Lets put it this, if games are fixed or not it doesnt really matter cause nobody really knows whos gonna win anyways.
  • FastEddieFastEddie Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    I am monitored for all sports and I have been doing this for 15 years and of the 300 plus NFL Handicappers being monitored only 10 to 13 have a winning % each year and same with NBA...every sportsbook tells me that they lose $$$ on MLB and win it back with NFL and NBA...those 2 are the hardest to handicap...you just have to be on the right side more than not or stay with College Football and College Basketball...you only have to worry about the players fixing the games in college...oh crap...will we ever figure this out...golf...gamble and beaver...those are things we men love the most...why ??? because we can't figure 'em out...


    GL....
    Eddie
  • FlipperFlipper Member
    edited July 2007
    I believe most of the time that if the game is fixed, that I am on the fixed side.
  • FlipperFlipper Member
    edited July 2007
    Also, I believe 54% LONG TERM is world class!
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited July 2007
  • Big DogBig Dog Banned
    edited July 2007
    Edward,

    The one factor not discussed here is the one thing (and only thing) that the bettor totally controls - the number of units with each wager. A good money management system will win many units with 50% or less wins. For example, Ed, over the last couple of years that I've been with you (including some free picks) your outstanding picks have hit 69-41 for a fantastic 63% winning edge. But with a good money management system, this produced almost 100 units adding to the already great value of your service. I guess another example is what I've posted on this forum. I'm currently 43-19 with 24 more wins than losses. But, I'm at plus 67 Units which is more than the total games posted here, including losses, which means that my money management system has produced over one positive unit for every game wagered - win or lose.

    Big Dog
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited July 2007
    Big Dog wrote:
    Edward,

    The one factor not discussed here is the one thing (and only thing) that the bettor totally controls - the number of units with each wager. A good money management system will win many units with 50% or less wins. For example, Ed, over the last couple of years that I've been with you (including some free picks) your outstanding picks have hit 69-41 for a fantastic 63% winning edge. But with a good money management system, this produced almost 100 units adding to the already great value of your service. I guess another example is what I've posted on this forum. I'm currently 43-19 with 24 more wins than losses. But, I'm at plus 67 Units which is more than the total games posted here, including losses, which means that my money management system has produced over one positive unit for every game wagered - win or lose.

    Big Dog

    The biggest advantage the bettors have over the books is the ability to PASS! Bettors can pick and choose their spots.
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