Service Play Thread for Thursday
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Comments
OHIO over AKRON by 8
Ohio needs a win here to lock up the MAC East title and a spot in the conference championship
game, and Bobcats are looking to atone for 27-3 loss last season in which they were
out-gained 498-110 in total offense. Ohio leads the MAC in pass defense efficiency this season
and should do a better job of containing Akron QB Luke Getsy, who is coming off a four-
TD performance in win over Buffalo. OHIO, 24-16.
WEST VIRGINIA over *PITTSBURGH by 6
Expect that ever-swift Mountaineers tandem of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton to prove
to be too elusive here for a Pittsburgh defense that allowed UConn signal-caller D.J.
Hernandez to run/pass ‘em wild in that two-OT game last week. The ’06 Backyard Brawl will
be closer than last year’s 45-13 West Virginia win. WEST VIRGINIA, 34-28.
least the last 3 in the series
Pointspread Record Since 1993: 17-6 ATS (66%)
This week’s application: Akron, Northwestern
=============================================================
5 West Virginia 41-17
winning points
Ohio U.* over Akron by 7 (Thursday)
Bobcats get nearly two full weeks to prepare for this one, which means physical
freshness to match what should be an ideal focus a win here and they go to the
M.A.C. Championship game. OHIO 26-19.
West Virginia over Pittsburgh* by 13 (Thursday)
Panther rush defense is the worst possible weakness to have when Pat White and
Steve Slaton come to town, and the short practice week off of a long day at UConn
is not the way to heal tired bodies in the DL. WEST VIRGINIA 33-20.
winning points
rockets by 2
warriors by 3
Georgia Tech* over Georgia State by 21
The Colonial visitors might be able to slow the tempo, but the backcourt is scattershot.
When the guards attempt to feed the post, it gets coughed back out against opposition
at Georgia Techs level. GEORGIA TECH, 72-51.
Arkansas State* over Bowling Green by 9
Back-to-back-to-backers against Clemson, Old Dominion and MEAC champ
Monmouth on 11/10-11-12, then a four-day break in advance of this home game vs.
a MAC visitor that was 7-21 a year ago. ARKANSAS STATE, 69-60.
USC* over South Carolina by 2
Do not discount all the NIT action that South Carolina got while the USC kids were
neither practicing nor playing last spring. Wed say that it gave Dave Odom a great
chance to play his bench except that he didnt have one! USC, 67-65.
Troy over Rhode Island by 6 (at Fairbanks, AK)
Transition to a more up-tempo style could hurt Rhode Island here, because the Troy
boys are a lot farther along in that kind of ballgame. RIU players are aware of the giveand-
take involved, and the downside turnovers and not getting back on D for 40
minutes. TROY, 79-73.
Wunderdogs
Game: W Virginia at Pittsburgh (Thursday 11/16 12:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on W Virginia -11.5
Everyone is wondering about Pittsburgh. What jas happened? What happened is they played a soft schedule early with teams they matched up with well except for Michigan St. The problem they had last year with W. Virginia has manifested itself again this year. They really struggle against teams that have a good ground game. They have held opponents to 522 yds. rushing in 6 wins or just over 85 yards per game. The problem is that, in their losses teams have piled up just shy of 300 yards per game! W. Virginia ran for 453 last year, and only needed to complete 4 passes. This will not be a look ahead game for W. Virginia, but rather a statement game. Whatever hope they have in reaching the Championship game is going to require an eye popping victory here similar to last year's score of 45-13, and then a similar result versus Rutgers, with a little "hope for the best" thrown in. It is a two-game season for West Virginia right now, and the punishing ground gam! e that has taken its toll on Pittsburgh all year will once again rear it s ugly head. Mountaineers in this one.
Sport: College Basketball Picks
Game: South Carolina @ USC on Nov 16, 2006 10:30PM
Prediction: USC
Even though they were favorites the last 3 games, the struggling Panthers have lost those games both straight up and ATS. Overall, the once hot Panthers are 5-4 ATS. The Panthers' ability to stop the run seems to weigh heavily on whether or not they cover. In the games that the Panthers covered, they allowed an average of 82.6 YPG on the ground. In the games that Pitt failed to cover, they allowed an alarming 277.5 YPG on the ground. This isn't good news considering WVU has an absolutely lethal ground attack that averages 318.2 YPG. With these overwhelming rushing numbers in mind it isn't surprising that over 90% of the early action is on WVU -11.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 105-106: Akron at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 75.861; Ohio 85.455
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Ohio by 4; 39
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-4); Under
Game 107-108: West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 104.761; Pittsburgh 89.634
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 15; 58
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11; 53
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-11); Over
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 501-502: Chicago at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.161; Houston 120.619
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Sacramento at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 119.487; Golden State 117.670
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4); Under
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 505-506: Georgia State at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 48.560; Georgia Tech 68.039
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 22
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+22)
Game 507-508: Bowling Green at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 44.400; Arkansas State 51.348
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 7
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-5)
Game 509-510: South Carolina at USC
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 63.920; USC 65.300
Dunkel Line: USC by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 5
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+5)
Game 511-512: Maryland at St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 68.884; St. John's 63.736
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 5
Vegas Line: Maryland by 2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2)
Game 513-514: Michigan State vs. Texas (in New York, NY)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 66.897; Texas 75.803
Dunkel Line: Texas by 9
Vegas Line: Texas by 5
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5)
Game 515-516: Weber State at Alaska-Fairbanks
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 49.100; Alaska Fairbanks (No Rating)
Dunkel Line: No Line
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 517-518: Troy vs. Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 52.930; Rhode Island 55.700
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 3
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 5
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+5)
Game 519-520: NC Greensboro at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 47.864; Duke 75.395
Dunkel Line: Duke by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 24
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-24)
Game 521-522: Samford at Towson
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 51.670; Towson 53.371
Dunkel Line: Towson by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Towson by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+2 1/2)
Game 523-524: Tennessee-Martin at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 46.444; Southern Mississippi 53.900
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-6 1/2)
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 51-52: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 13.300; Boston 11.052
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1 1/2); Over
Game 53-54: Montreal at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.796; Florida 11.253
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under
Game 55-56: Minnesota at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.519; Nashville 12.247
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Over
Game 57-58: Chicago at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.381; Phoenix 11.213
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Neutral
Game 59-60: St. Louis at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.062; Edmonton 12.627
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-1 1/2); Under
Game 61-62: Philadelphia at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.173; Los Angeles 11.087
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+1 1/2); Over
Please and thank you!
NFL KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY over Oakland by 20
INDIANAPOLIS over Dallas by 10
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Diego-Denver game
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
NORTHWESTERN by 10 over Illinois
TEXAS TECH by 16 over Oklahoma State
NOTRE DAME by 42 over Army
ALABAMA by 7 over Auburn
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
regular plays
pittsburgh and under total
Ben Burns
Nba Hoops
Tnt Game Of The Week
Golden State Warriors
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
regular play
st johns
Ben Burns
Nhl Regular Play
Boston Bruins
any help
Anyone with writeups?
League: College Football
Event: West Virginia vs Pittsburgh on 11/16/2006 at 16:45
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm going a little against the grain here as West Va has been an under team on the road recently and Pitt has been an under team when playing as a dog. Also, the weather forecast is not great and the West Va offense is best suited for a fast track. However, this West Va team has been held under 30 points just ONCE all year (27 at East Carolina), while topping 40 points in six of nine games. The Mountaineers 40.2 PPG average places them second in the nation in scoring. Meanwhile, Pitt averages 33 PPG (15th) and I expect QB Tyler Palko to have success vs a West Va defense that is at times, vulnerable to the pass. Palko is No. 2 in the nation in passing efficiency and has 22 TDPs vs just six INTs. Pitt's D has been run all over lately, allowing 258 YPG rushing (5.0 YPC) in losing three straight games (Pitt had been 6-1). That doesn't bode well vs a West Va team that's second in the nation in rushing at 318.2 YPG (6.9 YPC) with 38 rushing TDs. Slaton averages 151.4 YPG and 7.5 YPC and White 93 YPG and 7.9 YPC. LY West Va ran for 451 yards against Pitt and barring a horrible playing field, will run wild tonight. This year's "Backyard Brawl" will not be a 'dogfight' but rather a 'shootout' in which Palko and Co. try and match the Mountaineers score for score.
CFB TV Total of the Year 15* West Va/Pit Over
OHIO (-4.0) 24 Akron 14
Akron is a solid team from the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.3 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and allowing 4.9 yppl on defense (to teams that would average 4.8 yppl). The Zips are actually better than Ohio from the line of scrimmage, as the Bobcats are 0.9 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. Akron’s problem is their special teams and Ohio’s strength is their special teams so the Bobcats should enjoy much better field position in this game and turn their yards into points at a more efficient rate. My math model favors Ohio by 10 points, so I’ll lean with the Bobcats minus the points.
20 DIME
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Ohio University
10 DIME
St.Johns
DR BOB
Rotation #124 Wake Forest (+2) 2-Stars at -1 or better, 3-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #134 Purdue (-10) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars from -12 1/2 to -14.
Rotation #147 Army (+31 1/2) 3-Stars at +30 or more, 2-Stars from +29 1/2 to +28.
Rotation #166 Oregon (-13) 2-Stars at -14 points or less.
Rotation #188 Boston College (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #194 Louisiana Tech (+20) 2-Stars at +17 or more, 3-Stars at +21 or more.
Strong Opinions/Possible Best Bets
Rotation #111 Central Michigan (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (Friday game).
Rotation #125 Duke (+26) Strong Opinion at +26 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +28 or more.
Rotation #130 Iowa State (+14 1/2) Strong Opinion at +14 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +16 or more.
Rotation #198 Arizona State (-4) Strong Opinion at -4 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
3 Star Selection
***PURDUE (-10.0) 41 Indiana 20
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Purdue has not had the season that their fans anticipated, but the Boilermakers have been able to beat the teams that they are capable of beating, registering wins and spread wins against all 5 Big 10 teams they’ve faced that currently have losing records - Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois. I’ll look for that pattern to continue this week as the Boilermakers’ potent attack (6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) will score with ease against an Indiana defense that is 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense) and is especially horrible defending the pass (8.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Purdue has had their defensive issues this season (0.5 yppl worse than average), but Indiana is a mediocre offensive team that won’t be able to keep up with what their defense allows. Purdue is coming off consecutive road wins and they qualify in a very good 56-16 ATS home favorite momentum situation as well as a 93-41-4 ATS last home game angle. Indiana, meanwhile, is ready for the season to be over after getting whipped the last two weeks and the Hoosiers apply to a negative 33-75-2 ATS last game road team situation. My math model favors the Boilermakers by 14 points in this game and I’ll take Purdue in a 3- Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars from -12 ½ to -14 points.
3 Star Selection
***Army 13 NOTRE DAME (-31.5) 34
11:30 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
A lot of people find it surprising that Notre Dame has not won a game by more than 26 points in two seasons under coach Charlie Weis, especially given that they’ve been favored by 23 points or more 4 times and by 30 plus points twice. The Irish are 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 21 points under Weis and it will be impossible for him to get his team focused on this game with their date against USC coming next week. Notre Dame also isn’t good enough to be favored by this many points over a scrappy Army team hasn’t won many games under coach Bobby Ross (9-23 straight up) but doesn’t get blown out very often. Army is 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 14 points or more and they lost by just 4 points as a 27 point underdog to Texas A&M in their only such game this season. There are some general situations that favor Army to bounce back from their 7-43 loss at Air Force and they’ve had an extra week to prepare for this game. Army applies to a very good 88-21-2 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation and that angle is 51-7-1 ATS if the opponent is on a win streak of 3 games or more – which assures that they are likely to be overlooking the big dog off a horrible performance. By the way, that 51-7-1 subset has won 35 consecutive times since 1995! My math model favors Notre Dame by just 26 ½ points. Army has been turning the ball over at a very high rate (3.2 turnovers per game), but Notre Dame doesn’t force too many turnovers and the math would favor the Irish by just 30 points if they are +2 in turnover margin instead of the +1.4 that my math model predicts. I took a horrible Stanford as a big dog against Notre Dame for an easy spread win earlier this season and I don’t see the Irish playing with full intensity in this game either (they’re just 1-7 ATS at home after consecutive wins under Weis). I’ll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at +30 points or more and for 2-Stars from +28 to +29 ½ points.
2 Star Selection
**BOSTON COLLEGE (-7.0) 32 Maryland 18
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Maryland is the worst 2 loss team in the nation and the Eagles will help prove my point with an easy win in their home finale. The Terrapins are just barely better than average offensively, as they’ve averaged 5.3 yards per play with starting quarterback Sam Hollenbach on the field, against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. Hollenbach and company will have trouble moving the ball against a solid Boston College defense that is good against both the run (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp) and the pass (5.2 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Overall the Eagles are 0.8 yppl better than average on defense, giving them a significant edge over Maryland’s attack. Boston College also has the advantage when they have the ball, as the Eagles have averaged 5.4 yppl with Matt Ryan at quarterback (he missed the Buffalo game) while facing teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. Maryland has given up 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense, so they aren’t likely to slow down the Eagles’ offense in this game. Maryland does have great special teams, as they usually do every year, but Boston College is only 1.4 points worse in special teams and my math model favors the Eagles by 14 points in this game. BC has a very profitable 60% chance of covering at -7 points, based on the historical predictability of my math model, and I’ll take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less while making the Eagles a strong opinion at -7 ½ or -8 points.
2 Star Selection
**OREGON (-13.0) 30 Arizona 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Oregon has a habit of beating up on mediocre or bad teams at home, as evidenced by their 24-11 ATS mark when hosting a team with a win percentage of .500 or lower (9-0 ATS recently). The Ducks should be in a mood to kick some ass after getting whipped at USC last week and they apply to a solid 137-67-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. The best part of that angle doesn’t apply, but I don’t need much technical support to get on the side of the Ducks in this game against the suddenly overrated Wildcats. Arizona has upset Washington State and Cal in consecutive weeks, but they were out-gained in those two upsets by an average of 4.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl – so they really aren’t playing any better than they have been all season. Arizona has been a bit better this season with Willie Tuitama at quarterback but his return coinciding with the two upset wins is just a fluke since the offense really hasn’t played that well (as noted above). For the season the Wildcats have averaged just 4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, and they’re still 0.9 yppl worse than average with Tuitama at quarterback. Tuitama will have no success throwing against an Oregon defense that ranks among the best in the nation, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass play this season to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average team. Oregon is 0.3 yards per rushing play below average defensively, but Arizona is a horrible running team (just 3.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp) – so the Wildcats are not likely to take advantage of Oregon’s one minor defensive flaw. Arizona does have a solid defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit), but Oregon is 1.0 yppl better than average offensively and the Ducks have the advantage in that match-up. Overall my math model favors Oregon by 18 points in this game and the line would have been that high two weeks ago before Arizona pulled off two lucky upset wins while being out-gained by 1.5 yppl. I’ll take Oregon in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**WAKE FOREST 20 Virginia Tech (-2.0) 12
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
There shouldn’t be much more doubt about Wake Forest being for real after last week’s resounding 30-0 victory at Florida State. The Demon Deacons have always played their best against good teams, as their mis-direction offense tends to level of playing field against athletically superior teams. It also tends to keep less talented teams close, which has made Wake Forest a bad bet against lesser teams. The underdogs is now 45-17-1 ATS in Wake Forest games since Jim Grobe took over as head coach, including 9-0 ATS this season. That is not the reason I’m playing Wake Forest this week, since they are not really much of an underdog. The reason for the play is 32-6-1 ATS situation that applies to Wake Forest that is based on last week’s shutout win. That situation is 18-1-2 ATS when applying to home teams and has a solid 59% chance of covering at a fair line. My math model favors Wake Forest by ½ a point and I’ll take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection
**LOUISIANA TECH 23 Nevada (-20.0) 34
05:00 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Nobody wants to be on a Louisiana Tech team that has allowed an average of 41.6 points per game, especially against a Nevada squad that has covered the spread in 8 consecutive games. However, those facts are the reason why Louisiana Tech is a good play this week. The Bulldogs apply to a 50-25-3 ATS big home underdog angle that plays on teams with a bad defense and Nevada is only 9-1 ATS this season because they are +1.2 per game in turnover margin, which isn’t likely to continue (my math model projects +0.4 in TO margin for the Wolf Pack today). What is hidden by Nevada’s great pointspread run is their horrible run defense (5.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense), and teams that allow 5.0 yprp or more are just 68-108-3 ATS as a road favorite of 10 points or more. The Wolf Pack apply to a very negative 21-65-1 ATS subset of that angle and Louisiana Tech has a freshman in Daniel Porter that has averaged 5.9 ypr since burning his red-shirt in game 4. In 7 games since Porter starting play the Bulldogs have averaged 5.2 yprp (against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and my math model projects 6.3 yprp for Louisiana Tech in this game. Nevada does have an excellent pass defense, but Bulldogs’ quarterback Zac Champion is a decent passer (6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). Louisiana Tech’s offense should move the ball well enough to score enough points to cover the big number in this game, especially given that the technical analysis is in their favor. Louisiana Tech also tends to play better at home, as they are 20-36-1 ATS under coach Jack Bicknell away from home and 17-14 ATS at home, including 9-3 ATS following a game in which they lost straight up and to the pointspread. My math model favors Louisiana Tech by just 12 ½ points and they’d be favored by just 17 points if they were their typical +1.2 in turnover margin. So, there is line value even if Nevada continues to get lucky with the turnovers, and I’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 3-Stars at +21 points or more.
Friday Strong Opinion
Central Mich (-3.5) 31 NORTHERN ILL 21
05:05 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-06
I expected Northern Illinois to be very good running the ball again this season with Garrett Wolfe returning for his senior season and the Huskies were the best running team in the nation their first 6 games (7.7 yards per rushing play). However, opponents have stacked the line and Wolfe has been bothered by a sore hamstring and the Huskies have averaged a pathetic 62 rushing yards at 2.5 yprp in their last 4 games and teams will continue to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run until the Huskies prove that they can beat you with the pass. Quarterback Phil Horvath is a decent passer, but he’s actually gotten worse the last 4 games too, which doesn’t make a lot of sense since there are less defenders focused on the pass. Northern Illinois is still an average offensive team for the season (6.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team), but the Huskies have averaged just 4.4 yppl in their last 4 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. Northern Illinois has averaged 3.9 yppl or less in 3 of those 4 games with the exception being against a horrible Temple defense, and Central Michigan has one of the best defensive units in the MAC and the rate a bit better than average defensively on a national scale (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl). Central Michigan is also 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and they should move the ball very well against a bad Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive unit. Overall, my math model favors Central Michigan by 3 ½ points, which is right where the line has settled, but that number would be higher if Northern Illinois continues to play at the much lower offensive level that they’ve played at recently. Northern Illinois’ upset home loss to Toledo last Tuesday is not a good omen for the Huskies today, as that loss set them up in a very negative 12-51 ATS situation. The Chippewas are unbeaten in MAC play and they should stay that way. I’ll consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 3 points, but I’ll Upgrade Central Michigan to a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Duke 10 GEORGIA TECH (-26.0) 31
10:30 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Georgia Tech doesn’t have a good enough offense to be such a big favorite, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged just 5.1 yards per play with starting quarterback Reggie Ball in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Duke has a porous defense, but my math model only projects 5.8 yppl and 31 points for Georgia Tech in this game – which will make it tough to cover a nearly 4 touchdown spread. Georgia Tech does have a good defense (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average stop unit), but my math model projects the Dukies with 11 points and favors the Yellow Jackets by just 20 ½ points. Georgia Tech is only 3-10-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under coach Chan Gailey and the Yellow Jackets are only 12-20-1 ATS after a victory in his tenure (1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more). With their rivalry game with Georgia coming up next week I just don’t see Georgia Tech being fully focused on Duke. I’ll consider Duke a Strong Opinion at +26 points or more and I’ll make Duke a 2-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more.
Strong Opinion
IOWA ST. 21 Missouri (-14.5) 30
11:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Iowa State is 0-6 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games and head coach Dan McCarthy will be coaching his last game in Ames after 12 years on the job. I expect the Cyclones to rally for their departing coach and underperforming teams can be good plays in their finale at home. In fact, Iowa State applies to a solid 34-10-2 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on big home underdogs in their final game that have been struggling. Missouri, meanwhile, applies to a negative 15-47 ATS late season off a bye angle and the Tigers are not as good defensively without star defensive end Brian Smith (their all time sack leader), who has missed the last 3 games and is out for the rest of the season. My math model favors Missouri by just 10 ½ points, but Iowa State has been allowing more points defensively than their stats would dictate since they have been horrible in 3rd down defense. If I adjust for that then I get a fair line of Missouri by 14 points. So, the line is at least fair and the situations favor Iowa State. I’ll consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA ST. (-4.0) 27 UCLA 17
07:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Both of these teams are coming off good wins last week, but Arizona State is in a better position to play well again. The Sun Devils apply to a solid 89-47-4 ATS last home game situation and they’ve been better at home under coach Koetter (21-14 ATS) than they’ve been on the road (11-19 ATS). My math model favors Arizona State by just 3 ½ points and the situation isn’t strong enough to make the Sun Devils a Best Bet without some line value. I’ll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -4 or -3 ½ points and I’d take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Thank's for the DR.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
(Coaches vs. Cancer Classic – Madison Square Garden – New York, NY)
3 Units: Maryland (-2) vs St. John’s – 7:00 pm (e)
Chip Chirimbes 2006 Football
Thursday, November 16, 2006
2*
Akron / OHIO U. (Under 38.5)
7:30pm (ET)
Jim Hurley's 2006 Platinum Club Football
Thursday, November 16, 2006
2 units
West Virginia (-11) over Pittsburgh
7:30pm (ET)
ATS Lock Club -
3* Ohio University
ppp
Hoops
4% Southern Miss
3% Towson
3% Duke
3% Georgia Tech
John Ryan -
5* Golden St Warriors
Kelso Sturgeon -
The Big East Backyard Brawl Play
50* West Virginia -11
50* West Va.