RAS Sunday Night "Early Looks" - Week 3
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Five early looks this week:
Troy State +10.5 over Missouri (Thursday)
The Trojans won at Cincinnati in 1999, at Miss State in 2001, and at UAB
last year. They have also given scares to many other elite teams over the
years, but never has any member of a BCS conference visited Troy which is
what Missouri will be doing here. Given that, and the ESPN2 national
television broadcast, this is easily the biggest football game in the
history of the school. Troy State went 6-6 last year despite playing 8
road games and visiting the likes of Minnesota, Nebraska, Virginia, and
Kansas State. With a very young team (9 returning starters) they won at
UAB, at Utah State, and beat Marshall here at home by 9. This year they
are a much stronger team (17 returning starters plus some solid additions)
and started the season winning at Marshall, which is never an easy feat,
giving them a win over the Herd for the second year in a row. This team
plays ferocious defense. They have two future NFL players on the
defensive line and that unit dominated Marshall in the opener allowing
just 25 rushing yards and registering 8 sacks. Keep in mind Marshall led
the MAC in rushing in 2003. The Herd finished the game with only 202
total yards and 11 first downs. 13 of Marshall's 16 points were the
direct result of short fields gained from botched punts and an
interception. TSU's offense was not pretty but they have a mobile QB and
other skill position players who are capable. Missouri is a good football
team with an outstanding QB. Coming into the season, good things were
expected from the Mizzou defense as well, but they yeilded 438 yards in
the season opener vs Arkansas State. Offensively, Mizzou's weakness may
be an inexperienced offensive line which could spell big trouble against
this tough TSU defensive front. Both teams played on Saturday and will
have a short weak to prepare, but Missouri loses more time by having to
travel. Troy has looked good enough playing on the road, their potential
is untapped at home where they are 22-1 straight up the last 5 years. I
expect this to be a low scoring game and for Troy to stay within the
number. I will also be looking at playing the under once a line is
posted.
Northwestern -2.5 over Arizona State
A big question for the Wildcats heading into the season would be if QB
Brett Basanez could perform up to the potential he showed as a freshman.
In the season opener at TCU, the answer was a resounding yes. Basanez
completed 39 of 62 passes for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Wildcat
receivers are night and day better than last season. Three receivers
caught at least 8 balls and all three routinely gained big yardage after
the catch. Keep in mind that the Northwestern offense returned all 5
offensive line starters from last season and were thought to be a strong
running team coming into the season. They now will give defensive
coordinators nightmares with a tremendous balanced attack. The
Northwestern defense lost its best pash rusher just days before the season
opener and they made a lot of mental mistakes against a very good TCU
offense in the opener. Coaches say many of their mistakes are easily
correctable and while the defense still may not be a strength, I expect
them to show improvement and be respectable. ASU QB Andrew Walter really
can be a tease. He can look like an NFL star on one play and then look
dismal the next three plays. I do not know if it is him, the play
calling, or lack of a big play receiver, but this offense continues to be
very inconsistent. Walter puts up big yardage numbers but his completion
percentage last year was only 52.5%. Not what you would expect from a big
name QB. He went just 18-for-37 (48.6%) and was sacked three times versus
an inferior UTEP team in the season opener. At least two of his passes
should have been picked off. Head coach Koetter after the game said he
felt the offense was out of sync all night. Not what you would expect
against a UTEP defense that has been one of the nations worst in recent
years. ASU lost top CB RJ Oliver (foot) for the year prior to season
opener. Starting safety Ricardo Stewart sat out the opener and is "?" for
this game. Starting OL Brandon Rodd suffered a knee injury vs UTEP and is
out for the season. Starting center Drew Hodgdon (foot) is also listed as
"?" for this. The Sun Devils have struggled on the road under Koetter,
going 7-15 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS a dog. The big question for
Northwestern is if they can recover from the heartbreaking OT loss at
TCU. They showed a lot of character in that game. With two extra days to
prepare and playing in their home opener they should be ready to go.
Penn State -1 over Boston College
The Nittany Lions could not wait for this season to begin and they came
out hitting on all cylinders versus Akron in their season opener. Surely
on the road at BC will be a much tougher task, but Akron features NFL
bound QB Charlie Frye and will be a tough out for any MAC team this
season. The 48-10 margin of victory and fashion in which it was done was
impressive. Senior QB Zack Mills is completely healthy again and the
quarterback and receiver issues from last season are long gone. Sophomore
running back tandem of Austin Scott and Tony Hunt looked superb in first
game. Junior QB/RB/WR Michael Robinson is a great all-purpose threat.
The defense returns 7 starters and looked much better also. They have
some good young talent on that side of the ball. Boston College is coming
off a lackluster 19-11 win at Ball State in their opener. They benefitted
from a kickoff return for a TD or the game might have been even closer.
BC suffered some key injuries in the game losing top RB LV Whitworth and
starting LT Jeremy Trueblood for at least this game. With the injury to
Trueblood, BC now only has one returning starter on their offensive line
and two of the losses were 1st team Big East picks last year. It is the
first time in O'Brien's tenure that their are no seniors on the line. If
the questionable line is unable to establish a successful running game, BC
will be forced to throw and have been inconsistent doing so since the
beginning of last year. Starting QB Paul Peterson went 12-for-23 for 135
yards vs a weak Ball State team in opener. BC continues to be plagued by
penalties (11 for 72 yards in opener) and feature true freshman at both
kicker and punter. PSU will be playing its first revenge game of the
season. Some big turnovers early on and poor run defense led to PSU's
demise in a 27-14 loss to BC in Happy Valley. Look for them to turn the
tables this year.
Notre Dame +13.5 over Michigan
The Irish disappointed badly, particularly on offense, in their season
opener at BYU. A team who performs poorly on national television the week
prior often is a good value the next week. I believe that to be the case
here, especially since college teams are said to improve the most from
game one to game two. Notre Dame easily could have been looking past BYU
to this game and a chance to avenge last years 38-0 loss in Ann Arbor.
The Notre Dame defense looked in good shape and the offense has too much
talent to not come alive soon. Michigan's 43-10 season opening win over
Miami, Ohio is a bit misleading. This game was tied 0-0 in the 2nd
quarter and Michigan led 24-10 with the Redhawks driving inside the 20
early on in the 4th quarter before an interception runback blew the game
open. Michigan only outgained Miami by 24 yards and only notched one more
first down. This is despite 7 Redhawk turnovers. The Wolverines are a
very strong team but their current QB issues will put them at a major
disadvantage in this big road game. Projected starter Gutierrez injured a
shoulder two days before the opener and true freshman Chad Henne got the
start. Henne made a few big plays (14-for-24, 2 TD, 1 INT) but with only
30 practices and one game under his belt, play calling will be limited.
Not to mention playing on the road at Notre Dame is a much different
animal than a home game vs Miami Ohio. Gutierrez is listed as
questionable for the game but it would be his first collegiate start as
well. One way or another, the Irish should keep this game close. The
early action appears to be on Michigan, we may end up getting +14 here.
Alabama -10 over Mississippi
Last year, Mike Schula did not even get a spring practice with his team.
Alabama played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. They
lost six games by one possession (8 points or less) including Oklahoma by
7, double OT vs Arkansas, and 5 OT vs Tennessee. It is no wonder they
finished 4-9. This year they look to be much improved. A new
strength/conditioning coach and philosophy has the team faster and
stronger than ever. Their defensive effort seemed very spirited vs Utah
State in season opener. Mike Schula and his staff have now had a full
offseason to work with this team. There is plenty of talent here. Junior
QB Brodie Croyle is one of my favorites in the country. He has a strong
arm, great accuracy, makes good decisions, and has good speed for his
size. Bama has a fine stable of running backs and some good young
receivers. The defense returns 8 starters and features one of the best LB
units in the country. The post Eli Manning era did not get off to a good
start for Ole Miss. They were outgained 392-to-240 by Memphis in their
season opener. New Ole Miss QB Spurlock went 11-of-31 for 182 yards in
his starting debut. The Rebels were just 3-of-15 on 3rd down
conversions. The game would not have been as close as the 20-13 final
margin if not for a first quarter goal line stand that stopped Memphis on
downs at the 1 yard line. Ole Miss is also working to replace 7 of their
top 10 tacklers on defense. This will be the second of three straight
home night games for the Tide. Look for them to win this by double digits
as they avenge last years 15 point loss in Oxford that was aided by a -3
turnover ratio.
*Early look plays are recommened for 1/2 unit.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
http://www.handicapper.net
Try our revolutionary live Saturday half-time service. Delivered via
e-mail and instant messenger services. 60.7% lifetime win percentage.
Troy State +10.5 over Missouri (Thursday)
The Trojans won at Cincinnati in 1999, at Miss State in 2001, and at UAB
last year. They have also given scares to many other elite teams over the
years, but never has any member of a BCS conference visited Troy which is
what Missouri will be doing here. Given that, and the ESPN2 national
television broadcast, this is easily the biggest football game in the
history of the school. Troy State went 6-6 last year despite playing 8
road games and visiting the likes of Minnesota, Nebraska, Virginia, and
Kansas State. With a very young team (9 returning starters) they won at
UAB, at Utah State, and beat Marshall here at home by 9. This year they
are a much stronger team (17 returning starters plus some solid additions)
and started the season winning at Marshall, which is never an easy feat,
giving them a win over the Herd for the second year in a row. This team
plays ferocious defense. They have two future NFL players on the
defensive line and that unit dominated Marshall in the opener allowing
just 25 rushing yards and registering 8 sacks. Keep in mind Marshall led
the MAC in rushing in 2003. The Herd finished the game with only 202
total yards and 11 first downs. 13 of Marshall's 16 points were the
direct result of short fields gained from botched punts and an
interception. TSU's offense was not pretty but they have a mobile QB and
other skill position players who are capable. Missouri is a good football
team with an outstanding QB. Coming into the season, good things were
expected from the Mizzou defense as well, but they yeilded 438 yards in
the season opener vs Arkansas State. Offensively, Mizzou's weakness may
be an inexperienced offensive line which could spell big trouble against
this tough TSU defensive front. Both teams played on Saturday and will
have a short weak to prepare, but Missouri loses more time by having to
travel. Troy has looked good enough playing on the road, their potential
is untapped at home where they are 22-1 straight up the last 5 years. I
expect this to be a low scoring game and for Troy to stay within the
number. I will also be looking at playing the under once a line is
posted.
Northwestern -2.5 over Arizona State
A big question for the Wildcats heading into the season would be if QB
Brett Basanez could perform up to the potential he showed as a freshman.
In the season opener at TCU, the answer was a resounding yes. Basanez
completed 39 of 62 passes for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Wildcat
receivers are night and day better than last season. Three receivers
caught at least 8 balls and all three routinely gained big yardage after
the catch. Keep in mind that the Northwestern offense returned all 5
offensive line starters from last season and were thought to be a strong
running team coming into the season. They now will give defensive
coordinators nightmares with a tremendous balanced attack. The
Northwestern defense lost its best pash rusher just days before the season
opener and they made a lot of mental mistakes against a very good TCU
offense in the opener. Coaches say many of their mistakes are easily
correctable and while the defense still may not be a strength, I expect
them to show improvement and be respectable. ASU QB Andrew Walter really
can be a tease. He can look like an NFL star on one play and then look
dismal the next three plays. I do not know if it is him, the play
calling, or lack of a big play receiver, but this offense continues to be
very inconsistent. Walter puts up big yardage numbers but his completion
percentage last year was only 52.5%. Not what you would expect from a big
name QB. He went just 18-for-37 (48.6%) and was sacked three times versus
an inferior UTEP team in the season opener. At least two of his passes
should have been picked off. Head coach Koetter after the game said he
felt the offense was out of sync all night. Not what you would expect
against a UTEP defense that has been one of the nations worst in recent
years. ASU lost top CB RJ Oliver (foot) for the year prior to season
opener. Starting safety Ricardo Stewart sat out the opener and is "?" for
this game. Starting OL Brandon Rodd suffered a knee injury vs UTEP and is
out for the season. Starting center Drew Hodgdon (foot) is also listed as
"?" for this. The Sun Devils have struggled on the road under Koetter,
going 7-15 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS a dog. The big question for
Northwestern is if they can recover from the heartbreaking OT loss at
TCU. They showed a lot of character in that game. With two extra days to
prepare and playing in their home opener they should be ready to go.
Penn State -1 over Boston College
The Nittany Lions could not wait for this season to begin and they came
out hitting on all cylinders versus Akron in their season opener. Surely
on the road at BC will be a much tougher task, but Akron features NFL
bound QB Charlie Frye and will be a tough out for any MAC team this
season. The 48-10 margin of victory and fashion in which it was done was
impressive. Senior QB Zack Mills is completely healthy again and the
quarterback and receiver issues from last season are long gone. Sophomore
running back tandem of Austin Scott and Tony Hunt looked superb in first
game. Junior QB/RB/WR Michael Robinson is a great all-purpose threat.
The defense returns 7 starters and looked much better also. They have
some good young talent on that side of the ball. Boston College is coming
off a lackluster 19-11 win at Ball State in their opener. They benefitted
from a kickoff return for a TD or the game might have been even closer.
BC suffered some key injuries in the game losing top RB LV Whitworth and
starting LT Jeremy Trueblood for at least this game. With the injury to
Trueblood, BC now only has one returning starter on their offensive line
and two of the losses were 1st team Big East picks last year. It is the
first time in O'Brien's tenure that their are no seniors on the line. If
the questionable line is unable to establish a successful running game, BC
will be forced to throw and have been inconsistent doing so since the
beginning of last year. Starting QB Paul Peterson went 12-for-23 for 135
yards vs a weak Ball State team in opener. BC continues to be plagued by
penalties (11 for 72 yards in opener) and feature true freshman at both
kicker and punter. PSU will be playing its first revenge game of the
season. Some big turnovers early on and poor run defense led to PSU's
demise in a 27-14 loss to BC in Happy Valley. Look for them to turn the
tables this year.
Notre Dame +13.5 over Michigan
The Irish disappointed badly, particularly on offense, in their season
opener at BYU. A team who performs poorly on national television the week
prior often is a good value the next week. I believe that to be the case
here, especially since college teams are said to improve the most from
game one to game two. Notre Dame easily could have been looking past BYU
to this game and a chance to avenge last years 38-0 loss in Ann Arbor.
The Notre Dame defense looked in good shape and the offense has too much
talent to not come alive soon. Michigan's 43-10 season opening win over
Miami, Ohio is a bit misleading. This game was tied 0-0 in the 2nd
quarter and Michigan led 24-10 with the Redhawks driving inside the 20
early on in the 4th quarter before an interception runback blew the game
open. Michigan only outgained Miami by 24 yards and only notched one more
first down. This is despite 7 Redhawk turnovers. The Wolverines are a
very strong team but their current QB issues will put them at a major
disadvantage in this big road game. Projected starter Gutierrez injured a
shoulder two days before the opener and true freshman Chad Henne got the
start. Henne made a few big plays (14-for-24, 2 TD, 1 INT) but with only
30 practices and one game under his belt, play calling will be limited.
Not to mention playing on the road at Notre Dame is a much different
animal than a home game vs Miami Ohio. Gutierrez is listed as
questionable for the game but it would be his first collegiate start as
well. One way or another, the Irish should keep this game close. The
early action appears to be on Michigan, we may end up getting +14 here.
Alabama -10 over Mississippi
Last year, Mike Schula did not even get a spring practice with his team.
Alabama played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. They
lost six games by one possession (8 points or less) including Oklahoma by
7, double OT vs Arkansas, and 5 OT vs Tennessee. It is no wonder they
finished 4-9. This year they look to be much improved. A new
strength/conditioning coach and philosophy has the team faster and
stronger than ever. Their defensive effort seemed very spirited vs Utah
State in season opener. Mike Schula and his staff have now had a full
offseason to work with this team. There is plenty of talent here. Junior
QB Brodie Croyle is one of my favorites in the country. He has a strong
arm, great accuracy, makes good decisions, and has good speed for his
size. Bama has a fine stable of running backs and some good young
receivers. The defense returns 8 starters and features one of the best LB
units in the country. The post Eli Manning era did not get off to a good
start for Ole Miss. They were outgained 392-to-240 by Memphis in their
season opener. New Ole Miss QB Spurlock went 11-of-31 for 182 yards in
his starting debut. The Rebels were just 3-of-15 on 3rd down
conversions. The game would not have been as close as the 20-13 final
margin if not for a first quarter goal line stand that stopped Memphis on
downs at the 1 yard line. Ole Miss is also working to replace 7 of their
top 10 tacklers on defense. This will be the second of three straight
home night games for the Tide. Look for them to win this by double digits
as they avenge last years 15 point loss in Oxford that was aided by a -3
turnover ratio.
*Early look plays are recommened for 1/2 unit.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
http://www.handicapper.net
Try our revolutionary live Saturday half-time service. Delivered via
e-mail and instant messenger services. 60.7% lifetime win percentage.
Comments
Agree with most of your early looks. Its very early in the week but the
one I would have to disagree with is your ND game. This team is down and
has no playmakers. I like your thinking of playing one week(looking bad)
and the following week getting good value, but not here. Even with the
Michigan qb situation in flux. If Michigan can put up 24 points I think
you have a cover? Can't see this ND team putting up more than 10 points.
ND hasn't been in the top ten in 11 years. Thats right....11 years.
this Michigan defense, but I do think they will make enough plays to be
competitive or at least cover.
Edward