ACC PREVIEW
mike75
Senior Member
Week 3 ACC Preview
Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies? long-awaited debut in the ACC finally arrives Saturday when
Frank Beamer?s bunch plays host to Ted Roof?s Duke Blue Devils. Tech
bounced back off the carpet in spirited fashion last Saturday following
their disheartening 11-point loss to defending national champion Southern
Cal with a resounding 63?0 win over outmanned Western Michigan.
Surprisingly, though, the Broncos actually managed to hold a 32:25?27:35
time of possession advantage as Tech capitalized on a 4?0 turnover
advantage.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils suffered a cruel loss at Connecticut last week
when they let a 20?6 lead dissipate into a 22?20 defeat as they were
outscored 16?0 in the final stanza at Storrs. Despite the two-point
margin, Duke was outgained 461?252 by the Huskies in the contest. Give
credit to the Dukies though; they played much better than they did in the
season opener against Navy, and the Devils are 14?5 ATS on the road off an
ATS road win. Roof has this team playing with long-lost confidence. It
will be interesting to see how they react to the bitter loss last
Saturday. Looking ahead to a matchup with Maryland next week, it appears
that a 0?4 start is imminent for the gang from Durham.
The Hokies are famous for their fast starts and fizzling finishes. That?s
confirmed by a 35?2 SU and 26?9 ATS log in their first five games of the
season since 1996 as opposed to a disappointing 11?13 SU and 6?18 ATS mark
from Games Six on out the last four years. Conflicting trends also find
Tech just 1?8 ATS as conference home chalk in its last nine tries but 9?2
ATS at home vs. ACC foes (largely Virginia) in its last 11 chances.
Additionally, Duke is 51?8?1 ATS in SU conference losses while the Hokies
are 10?36?3 ATS in SU victories. The bottom line is the Devils find
themselves in a perilous situation as they enter off the aforementioned
two-point defeat while Virginia Tech anxiously awaits their ACC lid
lifter. We can only look the Hokies? way today.
Virginia Tech by 28
Akron at Virginia
On the surface, this looks to be a matchup of two teams heading in
opposite directions. The 0?2 Zips were denied their initial win of the
season in a 31?24 loss at home against Middle Tennessee last Saturday
while the 2?0 Cavaliers cruised once again in a 56?24 drubbing of North
Carolina.
The Cavaliers' talented offensive line manhandled the Tar Heels' defensive
front, opening huge holes for running backs Wali Lundy and Jason Snelling
as Virginia strung together scoring drives of 77, 68, 97, 79, 90 and 47
yards in the rout. Despite the loss of star QB Matt Schaub to the NFL,
Virginia is more talented this season than last, as they have outstatted
their first two foes (Temple and UNC) 1053?694 in total yards in 2004.
The Zips were absolutely steamrolled in Happy Valley by Penn State two
weeks ago in their season opener. We must note, however, that Virginia is
1?10 ATS as favorites after scoring 35 or more and just 1?9 ATS after
playing North Carolina. However, Akron has allowed more than 45 PPG in its
last 18 non-conference road games. That?s relevant here as Virginia is
49?10 ATS when the Cavs get 35 or more points. No Zips for us.
Virginia by 31
North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest
Jim Grobe?s Demon Deacons are doing things differently this year. Unlike
last season, they are actually winning the statistical battle. It was
completely the opposite in 2003, when Wake Forest outgained only one of
their twelve opponents. In last week?s 31?17 road win over East Carolina,
the Deacons outyarded the Pirates by 115 yards and have rushed for nearly
500 yards en route to their 1?1 start. The biggest task at hand for Grobe
will be keeping his team focused against the lowly Aggies. NC A&T kicked a
50-yard field goal as time expired, edging North Carolina Central 16?15.
They also played it close to the vest in a 16?13 setback to Alcorn State
in their season opener, losing on a 2-yard touchdown run with 36 seconds
remaining in the contest. Wake wins this one easy, but perhaps not as
comfortably as Grobe would like.
Wake Forest by 28
Louisiana Tech at Miami
Whew! That sound was the collective sigh of relief by Hurricane fans in
South Florida last Friday evening when Miami mounted a memorable 16?10
comeback overtime win over Florida State to remain the best football team
in the state of Florida (at least for the time being, anyway).Miami scored
16 straight points in the fourth quarter after Florida State took a 10?0
lead. The Canes haven?t lost to its rival since the turn of the century,
while no one on the FSU roster has beaten Miami. Only UM quarterback Brock
Berlin has lost to FSU, and that was when he was playing at Florida in
2000.While the streak lives at six, the Hurricanes must now try to
re-focus on Louisiana Tech, a team they beat handily (48?9) in their
season opener last year. The Bulldogs are 4?0 ATS in its last four chances
as an underdog with revenge. They return 16 starters and 54 lettermen from
last year?s five-win squad. That, and the fact that Miami is just 1?8 ATS
as DD home favorites in non-conference games, is about all of the good
news for the Techsters. Despite last year?s stunning 20?19 win at Michigan
State (as double-digit underdogs), Jack Bicknell?s troops are 8?21 SU away
from Ruston this decade and have lost their last three games by margins of
35, 30 and 35 points. With a visit to Tennessee up next, look for those
numbers to grow over the next two weeks. Miami showed a tremendous amount
of character and toughness in their comeback win against Florida State.
The Canes held FSU to a mere 165 total yards, as it appears the defense is
as good, or better, than ever before. Miami will certainly have to guard
against a dreaded letdown as the thrilling come-from-behind win was the
only game Larry Coker?s crew had been focusing on since they last played ?
and beat ? Florida State in the 2003 Orange Bowl game. Now he?ll have the
monumental task of preventing a letdown. Don?t be surprised if Miami is
able to pull it off, though. After all, it?s Hurricane season in South
Florida.
Miami by 31
Ohio State at NC State
If the Florida/Tennessee game isn?t atop this week?s most desirable game
list, this matchup could be. The 2002 National Champions from Ohio State
invade Raleigh to take on what we feel might be the most underrated and
dangerous team in the nation ? Chuck Amato?s Wolfpack of NC State.
As we wrote in our ACC preview earlier this year, don?t feel too sorry for
Chuck Amato. Sure he lost star QB Philip Rivers, who started all 51 games
the last four years, to the NFL. But 41 lettermen are back, including 17
starters from last season. In addition, three former starters from the
2002 season who didn?t play last year because of academics and injuries
are back on the scene as well. The most valuable player in camp, though,
is T.A. McLendon, the 2002 ACC Rookie of the Year, who, when healthy, is
quite possibly the best running back in the country. Replacing Rivers is
Marcus Stone, a cannon-armed redshirt who was his understudy last year.
We?ve got a lot of big holes to fill. Big holes, not just sink holes, but
craters, says Amato. We?re not buying it, and neither should you.
Enter the big bad Buckeyes from Ohio State. After having produced more
wins (25) than any team in the nation the last two years, Buckeyes head
coach Jim Tressel found the cupboard relatively bare this season. It was
reported that Ohio State?s two-deep looks like it has been ravaged by a
Kansas twister.?That?s because ? take your choice here ? a) more Buckeyes
have been arrested, or b) were selected in this year?s NFL draft than from
any other team. True to their developing style of play, the ?Luckeyes?
were outgained in eight of their 13 games last year and, despite a 32?7
overall record, have been outstatted in 17 games under Tressel.
For this team to remain on a Top Ten plateau they will need to ? a) stay
out of police lineups and b) begin winning games at the line of scrimmage
(read: win the stats).The Buckeyes are 2?8 ATS in their last ten tries as
road favorites and a miserable 0?10 ATS on the road off a SU DD win. NC
State has been waiting in the weeds for this game and has covered seven of
its last nine against Big Ten opponents. They are also 15?5 ATS as
underdogs with revenge. The Wolves have also cashed 12 of their last 17 at
home against nonconference opposition, and they rested McLendon in their
season opening win over Richmond, largely in anticipation of OSU?s visit.
Tressel has never covered in his road opener at Ohio State and these
Buckeyes very nearly became the first OSU bunch to lose to a MAC team
since 1895. With star CB Dustin Fox hurting, give us the home wolf here.
NC State by 10
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Reggie Ball threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to star WR Calvin Johnson with
11 seconds remaining to give Georgia Tech a dramatic 28?24 win over
conference rival Clemson last Saturday night. The win was the ultimate
payback for a 39?3 home thrashing suffered by the Ramblin? Wreck last
season as Tigers fans left Death Valley feeling like death warmed over.
Johnson, a freshman, reached high over the Tigers? Justin Miller just
inside the goal line near the left sideline to gather in his third
touchdown of the game. The winning score came just one play after
Clemson?s long snapper, Geoff Rigsby, rolled a fourth down snap pass to
punter Cole Chason, who was forced to fall on the loose ball deep in his
own territory. The Tigers still had one more chance when lightning-bolt
kick returner Airese Currie returned the ensuing kickoff to the Georgia
Tech 31 with 3 seconds to go. Charlie Whitehurst's last gasp pass to
Kelvin Grant fell incomplete as three Yellow Jackets swarmed the receiver
in the end zone.
The wild game saw five touchdowns in the final 8:30 minutes, including
three by Georgia Tech in the final 4:36. Head coach Chan Gailey was
rightfully elated, stating it was easily the most exciting game he has
ever been involved in his life. Like Larry Coker at Miami, he too will
have to guard against a natural letdown when his troops travel to Chapel
Hill to battle the Tar Heels.
North Carolina doesn?t play much defense, part of the reason for its 3?17
SU mark in its last 20 ACC games (two of the wins came against Duke). They
surrendered 505 YPG last season and coughed up 549 yards to Virginia last
week. When Georgia Tech, which hasn?t topped the 500-yard plateau in any
of its last 32 games, wins a game on the road, the Bumblebees are 36?10
ATS. The problem with lining up on Tech here is that the Bees are a woeful
2?12 ATS as ACC road favorites between -3 and -20 points and they are in
off last week's stirring last-second revenge win at Clemson. We won?t be
on our Heels today, but that 2?12 Hornet won?t sting us either.
Georgia Tech by 7
UAB at Florida State
The big question here is how Florida State reacts after that brutal
come-from-ahead loss to Miami in its biggest game of the season last week.
History tells us that FSU is 16?3 SU but just 11?8 ATS in their last 20
games after tackling the Hurricanes. Our concern, however, is the nature
of the loss and the mindset of the Seminoles this week. The truth of the
matter is Bobby Bowden has had enough losses for one week. Unfortunately,
he buried a grandson and a former son-in-law barely 24 hours before the UM
game. Trying not to dwell on the tragic family losses, Bowden chose
instead to talk about his football team. ?I don?t know that this hit me
harder than the others,?Bowden said about his sixth straight loss to
Miami, and third in less than a year. ?The only thing that might make that
true is the fact we led the game for so long. But it?s like the rest of
the Miami games.? A blocked field goal attempt proved to be the straw that
broke the camels back again. ?It?s amazing,? he said. ?Our kicking game
against Miami ? they haven?t blocked one before tonight, we just missed
them. We would have won the darn game with that kick.?
Four-year starting QB Chris Rix suffered through another dismal
performance against the Hurricanes, leading to speculation that a possible
change of signal callers may be in the offing .A switch from Rix to
sophomore Wyatt Sexton is not likely, though. Rix was pressured by a Miami
defensive front that overwhelmed the Seminoles' offensive line.
?Collectively, they might be just as good as last year, ?Bowden said of
UM?s defense. ?I didn?t think they could do that.?
Meanwhile, UAB invades Tallahassee as the victim in waiting, playing with
a week of rest following a season-opening 56?14 win over Baylor. The
Blazers are 5?1 ATS mark as road dogs and its 13?3 ATS as underdogs of
more than +9.We don?t feel this Blazer fits, though, as the Seminoles are
20?4?1 ATS after scoring less than 25 points and a powerful 27?6?1 ATS
when they win after losing (they will win here). FSU coaches will remind
players that the 1988 team that lost 31?0 at Miami in the season opener
won 11 straight and finished No.3 in the country. Don?t be surprised if
it?s d?j? vu all over again.
Florida State by 35
Week 3
Other Games
Clemson at Texas A&M (Big 12 Preview)
Maryland at West Virginia (Big East Preview)
Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies? long-awaited debut in the ACC finally arrives Saturday when
Frank Beamer?s bunch plays host to Ted Roof?s Duke Blue Devils. Tech
bounced back off the carpet in spirited fashion last Saturday following
their disheartening 11-point loss to defending national champion Southern
Cal with a resounding 63?0 win over outmanned Western Michigan.
Surprisingly, though, the Broncos actually managed to hold a 32:25?27:35
time of possession advantage as Tech capitalized on a 4?0 turnover
advantage.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils suffered a cruel loss at Connecticut last week
when they let a 20?6 lead dissipate into a 22?20 defeat as they were
outscored 16?0 in the final stanza at Storrs. Despite the two-point
margin, Duke was outgained 461?252 by the Huskies in the contest. Give
credit to the Dukies though; they played much better than they did in the
season opener against Navy, and the Devils are 14?5 ATS on the road off an
ATS road win. Roof has this team playing with long-lost confidence. It
will be interesting to see how they react to the bitter loss last
Saturday. Looking ahead to a matchup with Maryland next week, it appears
that a 0?4 start is imminent for the gang from Durham.
The Hokies are famous for their fast starts and fizzling finishes. That?s
confirmed by a 35?2 SU and 26?9 ATS log in their first five games of the
season since 1996 as opposed to a disappointing 11?13 SU and 6?18 ATS mark
from Games Six on out the last four years. Conflicting trends also find
Tech just 1?8 ATS as conference home chalk in its last nine tries but 9?2
ATS at home vs. ACC foes (largely Virginia) in its last 11 chances.
Additionally, Duke is 51?8?1 ATS in SU conference losses while the Hokies
are 10?36?3 ATS in SU victories. The bottom line is the Devils find
themselves in a perilous situation as they enter off the aforementioned
two-point defeat while Virginia Tech anxiously awaits their ACC lid
lifter. We can only look the Hokies? way today.
Virginia Tech by 28
Akron at Virginia
On the surface, this looks to be a matchup of two teams heading in
opposite directions. The 0?2 Zips were denied their initial win of the
season in a 31?24 loss at home against Middle Tennessee last Saturday
while the 2?0 Cavaliers cruised once again in a 56?24 drubbing of North
Carolina.
The Cavaliers' talented offensive line manhandled the Tar Heels' defensive
front, opening huge holes for running backs Wali Lundy and Jason Snelling
as Virginia strung together scoring drives of 77, 68, 97, 79, 90 and 47
yards in the rout. Despite the loss of star QB Matt Schaub to the NFL,
Virginia is more talented this season than last, as they have outstatted
their first two foes (Temple and UNC) 1053?694 in total yards in 2004.
The Zips were absolutely steamrolled in Happy Valley by Penn State two
weeks ago in their season opener. We must note, however, that Virginia is
1?10 ATS as favorites after scoring 35 or more and just 1?9 ATS after
playing North Carolina. However, Akron has allowed more than 45 PPG in its
last 18 non-conference road games. That?s relevant here as Virginia is
49?10 ATS when the Cavs get 35 or more points. No Zips for us.
Virginia by 31
North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest
Jim Grobe?s Demon Deacons are doing things differently this year. Unlike
last season, they are actually winning the statistical battle. It was
completely the opposite in 2003, when Wake Forest outgained only one of
their twelve opponents. In last week?s 31?17 road win over East Carolina,
the Deacons outyarded the Pirates by 115 yards and have rushed for nearly
500 yards en route to their 1?1 start. The biggest task at hand for Grobe
will be keeping his team focused against the lowly Aggies. NC A&T kicked a
50-yard field goal as time expired, edging North Carolina Central 16?15.
They also played it close to the vest in a 16?13 setback to Alcorn State
in their season opener, losing on a 2-yard touchdown run with 36 seconds
remaining in the contest. Wake wins this one easy, but perhaps not as
comfortably as Grobe would like.
Wake Forest by 28
Louisiana Tech at Miami
Whew! That sound was the collective sigh of relief by Hurricane fans in
South Florida last Friday evening when Miami mounted a memorable 16?10
comeback overtime win over Florida State to remain the best football team
in the state of Florida (at least for the time being, anyway).Miami scored
16 straight points in the fourth quarter after Florida State took a 10?0
lead. The Canes haven?t lost to its rival since the turn of the century,
while no one on the FSU roster has beaten Miami. Only UM quarterback Brock
Berlin has lost to FSU, and that was when he was playing at Florida in
2000.While the streak lives at six, the Hurricanes must now try to
re-focus on Louisiana Tech, a team they beat handily (48?9) in their
season opener last year. The Bulldogs are 4?0 ATS in its last four chances
as an underdog with revenge. They return 16 starters and 54 lettermen from
last year?s five-win squad. That, and the fact that Miami is just 1?8 ATS
as DD home favorites in non-conference games, is about all of the good
news for the Techsters. Despite last year?s stunning 20?19 win at Michigan
State (as double-digit underdogs), Jack Bicknell?s troops are 8?21 SU away
from Ruston this decade and have lost their last three games by margins of
35, 30 and 35 points. With a visit to Tennessee up next, look for those
numbers to grow over the next two weeks. Miami showed a tremendous amount
of character and toughness in their comeback win against Florida State.
The Canes held FSU to a mere 165 total yards, as it appears the defense is
as good, or better, than ever before. Miami will certainly have to guard
against a dreaded letdown as the thrilling come-from-behind win was the
only game Larry Coker?s crew had been focusing on since they last played ?
and beat ? Florida State in the 2003 Orange Bowl game. Now he?ll have the
monumental task of preventing a letdown. Don?t be surprised if Miami is
able to pull it off, though. After all, it?s Hurricane season in South
Florida.
Miami by 31
Ohio State at NC State
If the Florida/Tennessee game isn?t atop this week?s most desirable game
list, this matchup could be. The 2002 National Champions from Ohio State
invade Raleigh to take on what we feel might be the most underrated and
dangerous team in the nation ? Chuck Amato?s Wolfpack of NC State.
As we wrote in our ACC preview earlier this year, don?t feel too sorry for
Chuck Amato. Sure he lost star QB Philip Rivers, who started all 51 games
the last four years, to the NFL. But 41 lettermen are back, including 17
starters from last season. In addition, three former starters from the
2002 season who didn?t play last year because of academics and injuries
are back on the scene as well. The most valuable player in camp, though,
is T.A. McLendon, the 2002 ACC Rookie of the Year, who, when healthy, is
quite possibly the best running back in the country. Replacing Rivers is
Marcus Stone, a cannon-armed redshirt who was his understudy last year.
We?ve got a lot of big holes to fill. Big holes, not just sink holes, but
craters, says Amato. We?re not buying it, and neither should you.
Enter the big bad Buckeyes from Ohio State. After having produced more
wins (25) than any team in the nation the last two years, Buckeyes head
coach Jim Tressel found the cupboard relatively bare this season. It was
reported that Ohio State?s two-deep looks like it has been ravaged by a
Kansas twister.?That?s because ? take your choice here ? a) more Buckeyes
have been arrested, or b) were selected in this year?s NFL draft than from
any other team. True to their developing style of play, the ?Luckeyes?
were outgained in eight of their 13 games last year and, despite a 32?7
overall record, have been outstatted in 17 games under Tressel.
For this team to remain on a Top Ten plateau they will need to ? a) stay
out of police lineups and b) begin winning games at the line of scrimmage
(read: win the stats).The Buckeyes are 2?8 ATS in their last ten tries as
road favorites and a miserable 0?10 ATS on the road off a SU DD win. NC
State has been waiting in the weeds for this game and has covered seven of
its last nine against Big Ten opponents. They are also 15?5 ATS as
underdogs with revenge. The Wolves have also cashed 12 of their last 17 at
home against nonconference opposition, and they rested McLendon in their
season opening win over Richmond, largely in anticipation of OSU?s visit.
Tressel has never covered in his road opener at Ohio State and these
Buckeyes very nearly became the first OSU bunch to lose to a MAC team
since 1895. With star CB Dustin Fox hurting, give us the home wolf here.
NC State by 10
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Reggie Ball threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to star WR Calvin Johnson with
11 seconds remaining to give Georgia Tech a dramatic 28?24 win over
conference rival Clemson last Saturday night. The win was the ultimate
payback for a 39?3 home thrashing suffered by the Ramblin? Wreck last
season as Tigers fans left Death Valley feeling like death warmed over.
Johnson, a freshman, reached high over the Tigers? Justin Miller just
inside the goal line near the left sideline to gather in his third
touchdown of the game. The winning score came just one play after
Clemson?s long snapper, Geoff Rigsby, rolled a fourth down snap pass to
punter Cole Chason, who was forced to fall on the loose ball deep in his
own territory. The Tigers still had one more chance when lightning-bolt
kick returner Airese Currie returned the ensuing kickoff to the Georgia
Tech 31 with 3 seconds to go. Charlie Whitehurst's last gasp pass to
Kelvin Grant fell incomplete as three Yellow Jackets swarmed the receiver
in the end zone.
The wild game saw five touchdowns in the final 8:30 minutes, including
three by Georgia Tech in the final 4:36. Head coach Chan Gailey was
rightfully elated, stating it was easily the most exciting game he has
ever been involved in his life. Like Larry Coker at Miami, he too will
have to guard against a natural letdown when his troops travel to Chapel
Hill to battle the Tar Heels.
North Carolina doesn?t play much defense, part of the reason for its 3?17
SU mark in its last 20 ACC games (two of the wins came against Duke). They
surrendered 505 YPG last season and coughed up 549 yards to Virginia last
week. When Georgia Tech, which hasn?t topped the 500-yard plateau in any
of its last 32 games, wins a game on the road, the Bumblebees are 36?10
ATS. The problem with lining up on Tech here is that the Bees are a woeful
2?12 ATS as ACC road favorites between -3 and -20 points and they are in
off last week's stirring last-second revenge win at Clemson. We won?t be
on our Heels today, but that 2?12 Hornet won?t sting us either.
Georgia Tech by 7
UAB at Florida State
The big question here is how Florida State reacts after that brutal
come-from-ahead loss to Miami in its biggest game of the season last week.
History tells us that FSU is 16?3 SU but just 11?8 ATS in their last 20
games after tackling the Hurricanes. Our concern, however, is the nature
of the loss and the mindset of the Seminoles this week. The truth of the
matter is Bobby Bowden has had enough losses for one week. Unfortunately,
he buried a grandson and a former son-in-law barely 24 hours before the UM
game. Trying not to dwell on the tragic family losses, Bowden chose
instead to talk about his football team. ?I don?t know that this hit me
harder than the others,?Bowden said about his sixth straight loss to
Miami, and third in less than a year. ?The only thing that might make that
true is the fact we led the game for so long. But it?s like the rest of
the Miami games.? A blocked field goal attempt proved to be the straw that
broke the camels back again. ?It?s amazing,? he said. ?Our kicking game
against Miami ? they haven?t blocked one before tonight, we just missed
them. We would have won the darn game with that kick.?
Four-year starting QB Chris Rix suffered through another dismal
performance against the Hurricanes, leading to speculation that a possible
change of signal callers may be in the offing .A switch from Rix to
sophomore Wyatt Sexton is not likely, though. Rix was pressured by a Miami
defensive front that overwhelmed the Seminoles' offensive line.
?Collectively, they might be just as good as last year, ?Bowden said of
UM?s defense. ?I didn?t think they could do that.?
Meanwhile, UAB invades Tallahassee as the victim in waiting, playing with
a week of rest following a season-opening 56?14 win over Baylor. The
Blazers are 5?1 ATS mark as road dogs and its 13?3 ATS as underdogs of
more than +9.We don?t feel this Blazer fits, though, as the Seminoles are
20?4?1 ATS after scoring less than 25 points and a powerful 27?6?1 ATS
when they win after losing (they will win here). FSU coaches will remind
players that the 1988 team that lost 31?0 at Miami in the season opener
won 11 straight and finished No.3 in the country. Don?t be surprised if
it?s d?j? vu all over again.
Florida State by 35
Week 3
Other Games
Clemson at Texas A&M (Big 12 Preview)
Maryland at West Virginia (Big East Preview)
Comments
Oregon at Oklahoma
The Oklahoma machine returned in Week Two as the Sooners whipped Houston
63?13, sprinting out to a 49?7 lead at the half. It was a performance
straight out of Oklahoma?s 2003 season, when the Sooners hammered
everything in their path during the 12?game regular season.
Oregon, meanwhile, was upset in its season-opener at home by lightly
regarded Indiana 30?24, snapping a 24-game non-conference winning streak
at Autzen Stadium. Oregon fell behind 23?0 at halftime, then put together
a rally in the second half but could not finish it off, committing two
turnovers and missing a field goal in the fourth quarter. The Ducks owned
the statistical battle, outgaining the Hoosiers 495?198, but seven
turnovers and an Indiana kickoff return for a touchdown spelled the
difference in the disappointing defeat.
Defending Heisman Trophy winner Jason White appears to be moving better
than he did last year after minor off-season knee surgery. That gives
coach Bob Stoops yet another weapon, to go along with dangerous wide
receivers Mark Clayton, Will Peoples and Brandon Jones. KeJuan Jones and
Adrian Peterson also give the Sooners a threatening running attack, as
Peterson piled up 117 yards against Houston and both Jones and Peterson
scored two touchdowns. Peterson, considered the top freshman running back
in the nation, is averaging 113 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.
Oklahoma has averaged 271 yards rushing in its first two games.
Oregon, meanwhile, will have to regroup after the surprising loss to
Indiana. Quarterback Kellen Clemens completed 24-of-44 passes for 317
yards with three touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions. As a
first-time starter in 2003 as a sophomore, Clemens had a TD:INT ratio of
18:9. The Ducks? two main tailbacks, Kenny Washington and Terrence
Whitehead, combined for 18 carries and 125 yards for an impressive 6.9
yards per carry.
Neither of Oklahoma?s opponents have found much success running the ball,
though Bowling Green and Houston figure to be a notch below Oregon?s
talent level. For the Ducks to have a chance in this game, they will have
to establish at least the threat of a running attack in order to take the
pressure off Clemens and open things up for wide receiver Demetrius
Williams, who appears ready to take over as the No. 1 target for the
departed Samie Parker.
Oklahoma has covered the spread in its last two games against the Pac-10,
beating UCLA at home last year, 59?24, and beating Washington State in the
Rose Bowl after the 2002 season, 34?14. Oklahoma is 5?0 ATS before a bye
week since 2000. Oregon is 10?2 ATS on grass over the last four years and
has covered the spread in its last five road-openers.
Oklahoma by 24
Clemson at Texas A and M
Clemson played two down-to-the-wire contests in the first two weeks of the
season, edging Wake Forest in Week One in overtime and falling apart in
the final seconds against Georgia Tech in a 28?24 loss. Emotionally, the
Tigers will be down entering their first road game of the season after
seeing a sure victory disappear on a bad punt snap with 23 seconds left
against Georgia Tech.
Unlike Clemson, Texas A and M has yet to play in a close game. The Aggies
will be feeling a little better about themselves after blanking Wyoming
31?0 following a dispiriting 41?21 loss in their season opener at Utah.
The win over Wyoming broke a four-game losing streak dating back to last
season. Quarterback Reggie McNeal finished with a career-high 342 total
yards, including 298 through the air.
Clemson has an athletic defense that may give the Aggies problems. A and
M?s offensive weaknesses were exposed by Utah in the season-opener, and
the Tigers have more speed on defense than the Utes. Even against Wyoming,
the Aggies? offense scored just one touchdown in the first three quarters.
McNeal is an athletic quarterback but sometimes is too quick to run. He
has protected the ball well in 2004, however; he hasn?t thrown an
interception in 59 pass attempts this season after having a TD:INT ration
of 8:7 last year.
One of the keys of the game will be Clemson?s ability to move the ball on
the ground. Against Wake Forest, Clemson rushed for just 2.4 yards per
carry, but against Georgia Tech, the Tigers averaged 6.6. Texas A and M,
meanwhile, was dominant against the rush in the Wyoming game, holding the
Cowboys to negative-3 yards. Of course, against Utah, the Aggies
surrendered 4.7 yards per rush. Texas A and M will find Clemson more like
Utah than Wyoming.
Clemson quarterback Charlie Whitehurst will be the second talented
signal-caller to line up against the Aggies this season. Utah?s Alex Smith
completed 21-of-29 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns in the
opening game against the Aggies, numbers Whitehurst is capable of
duplicating. Whitehurst is averaging 282 yards passing per game, with both
games coming against tough competition.
Texas A and M?s defense may be able to keep the Aggies in this one for a
time, and the Kyle Field crowd will help at the outset. But Clemson?s
offense will eventually break through, and the Aggies will not be able to
sufficiently answer.
Over the last three seasons, Texas A and M is 2?10 ATS when coming off a
home win. Since 2002, the Aggies are 2?5 ATS in non-conference home games
and 2?8 ATS overall in non-conference games.
Over the last three seasons, Clemson has covered the spread in their lone
non-conference road game of the season ? South Carolina (2001), Georgia
(2002) and South Carolina (2003).
Clemson by 13
TCU at Texas Tech
Texas Tech returns home after suffering a 27?24 loss to New Mexico when
the Lobos booted a 43-yard field goal on the game?s final play. The
Raiders had won 10 straight against New Mexico, but a key missed field
goal and the inability to put the ball in the end zone ended that streak
in a hostile environment in Albuquerque.
TCU moved to 2?0, winning its second game in much different fashion than
its first. The Horned Frogs blanked SMU 44?0 in Week Two after surviving a
48?45 double-overtime thriller against Northwestern in the opener.
New Texas Tech quarterback Sonny Cumbie is putting the ball up at the same
rate as his record setting predecessors Kliff Kingsbury and B.J. Symons.
Cumbie threw 69 passes in the New Mexico loss, completing 44 for 452 yards
and one touchdown. The Raiders are not scoring at the same rate, however,
as Tech averaged 50 points against SMU and New Mexico last year, but just
25.5 points this season.
TCU quarterback Tye Gunn upped his record as a starter to 10?0 in the SMU
win, but he needed a helping hand from capable backup Brandon Hassell.
Gunn aggravated a rib injury in the second quarter, and Hassell came off
the bench to throw for 264 yards and two touchdowns in the rout. Running
back Lonta Hobbs is averaging 115 yards per game.
Comparing the two teams? scores against SMU, it would appear TCU would
have the upper hand despite having to go on the road. The Horned Frogs?
offense has simply been more productive in the season?s opening month.
Texas Tech is 3?0?1 ATS in its last four home openers. TCU is 1?5?1 ATS on
artificial turf the past three years.
TCU by 6
SMU at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has run to two straight victories and will look to move to
3?0 for the first time in the Les Miles era. The Cowboys have done all
their work on the ground thus far in beating Tulsa 38?21 and UCLA 31?20.
SMU (0?2) drags a 14-game losing streak into the match-up after being shut
out 44?0 by TCU. It?s the nation?s second longest behind Army?s 16-game
losing streak.
Vernand Morency has been the early season story for Oklahoma State, as the
junior running back has blossomed into a star after Tatum Bell?s departure
to the NFL. Morency has rushed for 445 yards and three touchdowns against
UCLA and Tulsa, taking the load of the offense squarely on his back while
quarterback Donovan Woods gets acclimated to the offense. Woods has done
little in two games, completing just five passes on 16 attempts.
SMU appeared to be making solid progress in Week One when it lost to Texas
Tech by 14 one year after losing by 48. But the Mustangs could do little
against TCU, getting outgained by 392 yards in the shutout loss. After
finishing last season minus-13 in turnovers, SMU is minus-6 already this
season.
As a road underdog in 2003 and 2004, SMU is 1?6 ATS. Oklahoma State is
13?3 ATS prior to a bye week since 1991.
Oklahoma State by 27
Ball State at Missouri
Missouri will attempt to put its season back together after a shocking
24?14 loss at Troy last week. Missouri, one of the preseason favorites to
win the Big 12 North, was expected to roll through its non-conference
slate of Arkansas State, Troy and Ball State before taking on the powers
in the Big 12, but Troy caught Missouri napping and now the Tigers must
regroup.
Ball State enters the contest looking for its first win of the season
after battling Boston College close in Week One before losing 19?11, and
getting blown out by Purdue 59?7 in Week Two. Ball State is 113th in the
nation in total offense after two weeks.
Brad Smith and the Missouri offense appeared capable of putting up big
numbers after scoring 52 points in the opening week, then scoring on its
first two possessions against Troy. But after that, Smith and the Tigers
were unable to score on their final 15 possessions against the Trojans.
Missouri has pounded Ball State the previous two seasons, 41?6 in 2002 and
35?7 in 2003.Missouri is 6?1 ATS in its last seven games as a home
favorite. Ball State is 2?6 ATS in its last eight road games.
Missouri by 22
North Texas at Colorado
Colorado enters its third game as one of only two teams in the Big 12
North without a loss (with Kansas being the other), though it has taken
two last-minute goal-line stands to get there.
One week after stopping Colorado State at the three-yard line as time
expired to preserve a 27?24 win, the Buffaloes forced a fumble at the
one-yard line with 17 seconds left while protecting a 20?12 lead at
Washington State. Running back Bobby Purify was held in check by
Washington State (53 yards) one week after gaining 189 against the Rams.
Colorado should get a breather in Week Three, as North Texas visits
Boulder with an 0?2 record and questions about its star running back
Patrick Cobbs. Cobbs, who led the nation in rushing in 2003, left North
Texas? 20?13 loss to Florida Atlantic in the third quarter with a strained
knee, and his status for Colorado is in doubt. Without Cobbs, North Texas?
offense could really struggle. It is ranked 112th in the NCAA in total
offense after two games.
Colorado is 2?5 ATS in its last seven home games. North Texas is 6?3 ATS
in its last nine road games against BCS conference teams.
Colorado by 9
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State
Kansas State will look to rebound after suffering its worst nonconference
loss in 13 years. The Wildcats were shocked 45?21 by emerging Fresno State
as Heisman Trophy candidate Darren Sproles was held to 37 yards on 11
carries. Kansas State was outgained by 220 yards by the visitors from the
Western Athletic Conference.
It was the second straight sub-par performance by the Wildcats, predicted
by the media win the Big 12 North in the preseason. In Week One, Kansas
State struggled with Division I-AA Western Kentucky, leading by just seven
halfway through the fourth quarter before winning 27?13.
Louisiana-Lafayette nearly pulled off an upset last weekend, falling to
Louisiana Tech 24?20 a week after beating Division I-AA Northwestern State
14?7. Against Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette scored 20 straight
points in the third quarter to take a 20?17 lead but could not protect it
in the fourth.
If the Ragin? Cajuns are going to make this a game, they must continue to
force turnovers. The UL-Lafayette defense has forced seven in two games.
UL-Lafayette is 4?2 ATS in its last six road games at BCS conference
teams. Since 1992, Kansas State is 18?6 ATS in September.
Kansas State by 29
Northern Illinois at Iowa State
Iowa State may have done more in defeat in Week Two than it did in victory
in Week One. The Cyclones, who snapped a 10-game losing streak in the
opener by beating Northern Iowa 23?0, showed they are a much-improved team
in losing 17?10 at Iowa on a day their backup kicker missed three field
goals.
The Cyclones are trying to rebound after a 2?10 season in 2003, and they
are looking for their defense to lead the way. Iowa State is tied for
seventh in the nation after two weeks in total defense, yielding just 202
yards per game.
Northern Illinois has played in two tight contests, falling to Maryland
23?20 in the opener before beating Division I-AA Southern Illinois 23?22
by denying a two-point attempt by the Salukis in the final minute.
Iowa State is 2?14 ATS in its last 16 games. Northern Illinois is 20?13?1
ATS after a win under coach Joe Novak.
Iowa State by 4
Week 3
Other Games
Kansas at Northwestern (Big 10 Preview)
Nebraska at Pittsburgh (Big East Preview)
Byes ? Baylor and Texas
San Diego State at Michigan
So who gets the blame for Michigan?s stunning 28?20 loss at Notre Dame?
Let?s point the finger at head coach Lloyd Carr, whose game-management
skills in pivotal contests have proven to be maddeningly inconsistent.
Favored by nearly two touchdowns, Michigan toyed with the Irish early on
and seemed on the verge of blowing things wide open at any moment. But
Carr was playing ?not to lose? instead of playing to win: his
overly-conservative offense refused to take risks and stretch Notre Dame?s
defense, and an opening half of complete domination led to a mere 9?0
edge. Then, when things began to unravel late in the game, Carr and his
assistants were unable to make the adjustments necessary to pull the
offense out of its shell. Even worse, the Wolverines simply lost their
composure, yielding 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points to turn a 12?7
lead into a crushing defeat.
At first glance, Saturday?s matchup with mediocre Mountain West opponent
San Diego State should be just what the doctor ordered for the hosts. A
closer inspection, however, indicates more trouble on the horizon for the
Maize-and-Blue. Statistically, the 2004 Michigan offense is stuck in
neutral. Compared to ?03?s 447-yard average, the Wolverines have posted
anemic totals of 274 and 296 total yards while logging an un-Michigan-like
2.4 yards per rush.
The Aztecs, fresh off a 581-yard outburst in a season-opening 38?21 win
over Idaho State, field 16 returning starters including QB Matt
Dlugolecki, and the seven leading tacklers on defense. In fact, San Diego
State?s defense made tremendous improvement in 2003, surrendering 120
fewer yards per game than the previous edition, to finish No. 8 in the
nation. Potential trouble spots? The Aztecs committed three turnovers and
a whopping 118 yards in penalties in their Game One victory.
Scheduling dynamics and emotional edges also favor the visitors. Michigan
is off a frustrating loss to a bitter rival and could be looking ahead to
its Big Ten opener, a double-revenge grudge match against Iowa (the last
team to defeat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor). The Aztecs, meanwhile, have
had an extra week to rest and prepare for one of their few prime-time
appearances.
Looking inside the numbers, Michigan is 7?1 ATS the last 8 in the Big
House, 4?1 in the first of back-to-back homers, and 28?16 at home vs. a
foe off a SU win. But Carr has logged only a 2?6 ATS mark the week before
Big Ten openers, and has covered only one of six at home (average winning
margin of just 10 points) after suffering the season?s first loss on the
road. Third-year Aztecs? head man Tom Craft has notched a respectable 7?4
record as a road dog, including 6?1 when taking double digits.
Though Michigan fans will be clamoring for a blowout (the Wolverines have
slaughtered their last four non-league opponents at Ann Arbor by 39 PPG),
it simply may not happen. Don?t forget that San Diego State rolled into
Columbus last year as 31-point dogs and took Ohio State to the limit
before losing a 16?13 nail biter. Things won?t be that close here but the
Aztecs should stay within what could be a four-touchdown margin. Don?t
drop the dime until you check the status of Michigan?s No. 1 running back,
David Underwood, who left the Notre Dame game with an injury after only
one carry.
Michigan by 18
UCF at Penn State
The roller coaster ride continues in Happy Valley. One week after stirring
the echoes with a convincing 48?10 rout of Akron, Penn State reverted to
form with a mistake-filled 21?7 road loss at Boston College ?? a defeat
that lined the pockets of bookmakers across America (Penn State money
pushed the Lions from a slight opening dog to a four-point favorite by
game time). Joe Paterno?s squad, which had rushed for 352 yards against
the Zips, managed only 73 yards on the ground against Boston College while
committing five costly turnovers. Further south in Orlando, Central
Florida opened the George O?Leary era by serving as cannon fodder for West
Virginia in a 45?20 destruction.
Now 0?2 SU/ATS, the Knights continue their overly-ambitious 2004 schedule
by returning to Big Ten country. The timing couldn?t be better for Penn
State QB Zack Mills, who served up four crucial interceptions last week
and will now get to face a UCF pass defense that was riddled for 225 yards
and four touchdowns by WVU?s Rasheed Marshall (not exactly a leading
candidate for this year?s Davey O?Brien award).Neither team has fared well
as of late against the point spread: Paterno is 4?10 ATS in his last 14
tries and Central Florida has covered just three of its last 14 outings.
The Knights are also a pitiful 2?7 lately against non-conference opponents
and 1?5 off a double-digit SU loss.
Considering the horrendous performances of MAC teams so far in 2004, one
can only look in Penn State?s direction. But a huge Big Ten opener looming
ahead at Wisconsin ? coupled with the Lions? recent Jekyll-and-Hyde act ?
should steer you towards other investments. UCF narrowly lost its last
visit to Beaver Stadium by only a field goal; the margin should be greater
here as Zack Mills and the offense get back on track.
Penn State by 15
Kansas at Northwestern
Hard to effectively gauge the early returns on these two teams.
Northwestern has dropped two straight close decisions to a pair of quality
teams while the Jayhawks have laid the wood to not-so great competition in
Tulsa and Toledo. (The Rockets should be sued for impersonating a football
team after last week?s 63?14 massacre in Lawrence.) One thing?s for
certain: With Minnesota and Ohio State to follow this matchup, the
Wildcats will have to stop Kansas to avoid a disastrous 0?5 start.
Point spread logs favor the host. The Wildcats are 11?5 ATS lately with
head coach Randy Walker calling the shots compared to a 4?7 road dog mark
compiled by Kansas? Mark Mangino. The Jayhawks, playing with revenge for
last year?s 28?20 defeat, are just 10?23 ATS away in that role and an
equally bad 18?37 when getting points with revenge.
Despite opening with consecutive blowouts, the Kansas offense has
generated 274 yards less than this week?s opponent. They?ve also been
aided by eight turnovers, a situation that may not continue as
Northwestern has committed only three giveaways. Though the pressure to
recognize the Jayhawks? impressive start is undeniable, we feel that the
Wildcats are simply a more talented team with better coaching. They should
find a way to stop the bleeding here.
Northwestern by 7
Western Michigan at Illinois
Games like this are not what lured over 5.2 million fans through the Big
Ten turnstiles in 2003.However, it could be a godsend to the beleaguered
Illini, whose 35?17 thrashing by UCLA last week marked loss No. 11 in
their last 12 contests (Illinois has not covered against a lined opponent
since the close of the 2002 season). MAC teams, meanwhile, have failed to
win a single lined, non-league game this year, posting a dreadful 0?21
record with an average margin of defeat of 26 points!
Illinois coach Ron Turner, who fired his defensive coordinator after ?03?s
1?11 debacle, could not have enjoyed watching his revamped ?D? yield 481
yards to a Bruins club that was riding its own six-game losing streak.
Even worse, QB Jon Beutjer, suffered a rib injury and failed to return
after halftime.
Point spread records offer no support for either of these stiffs. Western
Michigan is 0?5 as a road dog before another away game and the outright
winner in Broncos? games stands at 33?9?1 since 1999. Illinois is 1?5 ATS
home before Big Ten openers, 1?5 before facing Purdue, and 11?24 home off
a SU loss. Pick your poison.
Illinois by 6
Notre Dame at Michigan State
History tells us that this series has continually brought out the best the
Spartans have to offer. Michigan State has controlled the hard-fought,
low-scoring rivalry by covering in seven of the previous eight meetings,
including a 5?2 ATS mark at East Lansing. Add the Spartans? 15?6 record
when playing at home off a double-digit SU win to Notre Dame?s 1?7 ATS
mark after facing its first Big Ten opponent of the season and the scales
tip in favor of the Green-and-White.
But Michigan State?s rush defense appears to be in total disarray. With
seven starters returning from a unit that gave up just 125 yards and 3.2
per carry on the ground in ?03, the Spartans have been ripped for a total
of 410 yards (4.4 YPC) in two games against less than-stellar competition.
If Notre Dame can continue to mount the same power running game it
displayed against Michigan, John L. Smith?s defense could be on the field
for a mighty long time. The Spartans? offense, even though receiving
steady play from new QB Stephen Reaves and the rushing tandem of Jason
Teague and Jehuu Caulcrick, has converted a woeful six of 26 third-down
opportunities. Are the scales tipping back?
All things considered, let?s stick with recent history and look for a
narrow Michigan State win. The Spartans have turned the ball over just
once in two outings and reduced their penalty yardage from 147 against
Rutgers to only 19 vs. Central Michigan. Irish head coach Tyrone
Willingham said he wouldn?t allow his team to celebrate the Michigan win
for too long but that task is far easier said than done.
Michigan State by 2
Week 3 Big Ten Preview
Other Games
Indiana at Kentucky (SEC Preview)
Iowa at Arizona State (Pac-10 Preview)
Minnesota at Colorado State (MWC Preview)
Ohio State at NC State (ACC Preview)
Wisconsin at Arizona (Pac-10 Preview)
Bye ? Purdue
Call this a replacement game. In effect, Connecticut is replacing the
departing Boston College Eagles within the Big East, and this figures to
be the last time the New England rivals will play for some time. The
question in this game is which offense can kick it in gear. Sure, UConn
has big-time QB Dan Orlovsky, but BC counters with left defensive end
Mathias Kiwanuka, the 2003 Big East sacks leader, and company. On the
other side, is senior quarterback Paul Peterson the prime timer the Boston
College coaches expected during fall camp? He was 12-of-23 for 135 yards
passing against Ball State, then 23-of-31 for 199 against PSU. In addition
to the hostile environment, UConn must deal with pressure. The Big East
needs the Huskies to win. Coach Randy Edsall just signed a nice long-term
contract. He now has to prove he?s worth it.
Boston College by 8
Maryland at West Virginia
UM?s Ralph Friedgen has absolutely overwhelmed WVU?s Rich Rodriguez since
the two coaches were hired four seasons ago. The good news for West
Virginia is left-handed Maryland quarterback Scott McBrien is gone.
McBrien transferred from Morgantown to College Park and lit up his former
teammates three times. Against Northern Illinois, new Terrapins QB Joel
Statham exhibited the jitters, fumbling three times in the first quarter.
He came back to complete 18-of-25 passes for 268 yards and two TDs in
Maryland?s 45?22 home win over Temple. He can also lean on back Sam
Maldonado, the former Ohio State Buckeye, who ran for 106 yards versus
Temple.
WVU?s backfield, meanwhile, took a hit this past Saturday when Kay-Jay
Harris pulled a hamstring after carrying the ball but two times. In his
place was Jason Colson (21 rushes for 108 yards). The WVU star in a 45?20
win over Central Florida was quarterback Rasheed Marshall, who completed
14-of-18 passes for 225 yards and four touchdowns. He can always throw a
jump ball to the acrobatic Chris Henry. This may be the year for the
Mountaineers.
West Virginia by 2
Cincinnati at Syracuse
Syracuse coach Paul Pasqualoni?s hot seat cooled, but just a smidge, this
past weekend as the Orange pushed past lowly Buffalo, 37?17. But it took a
couple of second-quarter blocked punts from Anthony Smith to get the
Orange going. Syracuse looks lost on offense. The quarterbacks are
struggling, and running back Walter Reyes, mentioned as a Heisman Trophy
candidate in preseason, had 17 carries for a paltry 59 yards for his
second subpar outing. If there is a positive for SU, it?s the defensive
improvement. After giving up 51 points to Purdue, the Orange defense
tightened this past weekend.
In their first game, the Bearcats forced three turnovers while committing
none in a 27?6 loss at Ohio State. Then Cincinnati got its offense rolling
against Miami (Ohio).Quarterback Gino Guidugli hit 12-of-23 passes for 258
yards and two TDs, while rushing for another. Back Richard Hall,
meanwhile, blew past the RedHawk defense for 238 yards and three scores in
the 45?26 victory. If Reyes can again be bottled up, look for Cincinnati
to slip past the Orange.
Cincinnati by 1
Nebraska at Pittsburgh
After Pittsburgh failed to meet high expectations in 2003,fans in the
Steel City are grumpy. Meanwhile, Nebraska rolled in Bill Callahan?s debut
against Western Illinois, but fell 21?17 to defending Conference USA
champion Southern Mississippi in Lincoln. Cornhusker QB Joe Dailey?s
penchant for interceptions hurt against Southern Miss. Dailey threw for
two TDs, but also three picks. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, beat Ohio 24?3,but
it wasn?t exactly a flying start for the Panthers. Junior QB Tyler Palko
made his first start and completed but 6-of-19 passes for 49 yards. Expect
Nebraska to be able to run. Cory Ross, 5'6, had 169 yards rushing on 27
attempts against Southern Miss. And if Dailey can continue to find his
favorite receiver, Matt Herian, expect the Cornhuskers to take this one,
the first game between the schools in 46 years.
Nebraska by 4
Florida A&M at Temple
Temple has finally stopped playing nationally ranked ACC opponents. The
Owls have now lost 44?14 to Virginia and 45?22 to Maryland. Temple?s Bobby
Wallace has seen little offensive execution, save for that of QB Walter
Washington, who completed 16-of-27 passes for 188 yards against Maryland
and rushed for 75 more yards and two TDs on 15 carries. Defensively, the
Owls have been giving up big plays. They can?t do that against the
Rattlers, who threw 42 times (completing 31) against Tulane. If Temple?s
offense can get on the board early, the Owls should win at home.
Temple by 3
Kent State at Rutgers
Leave it to Rutgers to squander prosperity. A week after beating Michigan
State, 19?14, the Scarlet Knights fell to Division I-AA New Hampshire. The
hosts could only muster 50 yards rushing on 36 attempts. Quarterback Ryan
Hart was sacked four times and threw one interception. Defenively, RU was
riddled by UNH quarterback Ricky Santos. Kent State also boasts an
effective QB in Joshua Cribbs, who ran for 105 yards and a TD and passed
for two more in his team?s 38?10 win over Liberty. Cribbs, who missed his
team?s first game, a 39?7 loss to Iowa, is dangerous as a runner and
passer. Defensively, though, the Golden Flashes are small up front.
Rutgers by 1
The Golden Bears invade Southern Miss for a mid-week non-conference game
that should feature a high-energy atmosphere. Southern Miss raised the
stake, after stunning Nebraska 21?17 in Lincoln last week, becoming just
the seventh visiting team to win at Nebraska?s Memorial Stadium in the
last 16 years. Jeff Bower?s opportunistic defense took advantage of
Nebraska miscues, converting four of the Cornhuskers? five turnovers into
points, as Southern Miss became the first non-conference foe to win in
Lincoln since 1991. The Eagles? defense will need the same kind of
production to slow down California?s high octane offense. Nebraska
outgained Southern Miss 476-239 in total yards, but the Golden Eagles got
out of town with the win.
Southern Miss did a fine job protecting quarterback Dustin Almond,
allowing Nebraska?s Blackshirts to collect only one sack. Almond went
12-of-28 for 143 yards with one touchdown and an interception, including a
46-yard scoring strike to Marvin Young with 7:47 left to put USM in front
for good. Linebackers Antoine Cash and Michael Boley are very active and
defensive back John Eubanks heads up the secondary. Southern Miss did a
great job frustrating Nebraska?s new West Coast offense under new coach
Bill Callahan, but the degree of difficulty jumps considerably with
California coming to town. USM kicker Darren McCaleb heads into the Cal
game on a roll, after drilling three first half field goals at Nebraska.
Jeff Tedford has quickly restored pride in the football team at Berkeley
as Cal heads into Thursday night?s test at the Rock.Cal is on a major roll
after opening the season with a pair of lopsided victories. Cal fans have
jumped on the bandwagon in droves this year, buying more than 33,000
season tickets. Junior Aaron Rodgers triggers the Cal passing game, and
Chase Lyman is his top target.
Two weeks ago in a season opening 56?14 romp at Air Force, Cal unleashed a
furious running game, piling up 342 yards, 181 of them coming from senior
J.J. Arrington, while true freshman Marshawn Lynch tacked on 92 yards on
just seven carries. Arrington ran for 177 yards and three scores ? he now
has six TDs in two games ? as the Bears drilled New Mexico State in their
home opener 41?14. Cal is averaging 42.7 points per game over its last
eight contests.
The Golden Bears? defense won?t face its first serious test until lining
up against Southern Miss. Cal?s dominance of New Mexico State allowed
Tedford to rest many of his front liners, which could be a key as Cal
prepares for a short week of practice and a cross-country trip.
Southern Miss is 29?9 ATS in its next game after being a road underdog.
California failed to cover a huge number in its win over New Mexico State
and is only 2?12 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite.
Southern Miss by 1
Louisville at Tulane
Louisville spoiled Bobby Ross? Army debut rolling up 574 yards en route to
handing the Black Knights their 16th straight loss 52?21. Stefan LeFors
continued his hot hand, going 18-for-24 for 270 yards and Broderick Clark
caught six of those passes for 122 yards. Michael Bush keyed the
Louisville ground game with a pair of TDs.
After blanking Kentucky 28?0 two weeks ago, the Cardinals could find more
defensive success this week against a young Tulane attack. Louisville?s
Kerry Rhodes had a pair of interceptions against Kentucky, including one
he returned 55 yards for a touchdown.
Tulane took down I-AA Florida A&M 39?19 last week. LSU transfer
quarterback Lester Ricard hit on 12-of-16 passes for 174 yards and one
interception, finding Bubba Terranova with a 38-yard TD pass in the first
quarter and Gabe Ratcliff with a 5-yard score just before halftime. Tulane
struggled in the kicking game, missing a pair of extra points, and failed
on a two-point conversion.
Green Wave linebacker Anthony Cannon followed through on his prediction
that Tulane would have a better defensive effort against FAMU. In Tulane?s
season-opening 28?7 loss at Mississippi State, Cannon posted eleven
tackles. Tulane is one of the youngest teams in C-USA; 14 new players saw
action in the opener at Mississippi State, including 13 freshmen.
Louisville is a double-digit favorite against Tulane as they meet for the
third time in the last four years. The Cardinals are 3?0 against the Green
Wave straight up in those games and 2?1 ATS. Tulane is 11?21 ATS in its
last 32 games as a home underdog.
Louisville by 17
Army at Houston
Army?s Black Knights have returned to a ground-based attack under new
coach Bobby Ross, but failed to get much offensive momentum developed last
week against Louisville. Army had 10 penalties in the 52?21 loss.
Louisville had a 2:1 edge in time of possession and rushed for 240 yards,
a trend surely not lost on Houston. Army?s Carlton Jones rushed for 93
yards and a touchdown.
In Norman, Houston scored first, but was rolled over by powerful Oklahoma
last week 63?13 as quarterback Kevin Kolb?s streak of a touchdown pass in
six straight games was snapped. Army is UH?s conference opener and its
best opportunity for an early season win.
Last year Army was 4?0 ATS as a road underdog. Houston is 15?8 ATS in its
last 23 games against teams averaging less than 4.5 yards per offensive
play ? the Black Knights fit the bill for that odd trend.
Houston by 14
C-USA Preview
Other Games
Cincinnati at Syracuse (Big East Preview)
Memphis at Arkansas State (Sun Belt Preview)
South Florida at South Carolina (SEC Preview)
TCU at Texas Tech (Big 12 Preview)
UAB at Florida State (ACC Preview)
Bye ? East Carolina
This is the first Mountain West Conference game of the season, and neither
team has too much going for it right now. Neither has defeated a Division
I-A opponent, although each has done some good things.
Air Force opened the season with a 56?14 home loss to California, which is
a very good team, and a 42?20 victory over Eastern Washington, which is
not. The key to any game involving Air Force is whether the opponent can
handle the wishbone offense. The Falcons rushed for 353 yards against EWU,
but the Rebels are obviously much better equipped to deal with freshman
quarterback Shaun Carney. In last week?s 18?3 loss at Wisconsin, the
Rebels gave up only 276 yards and made the Badgers earn everything they
got.
More questions surround the match-up of UNLV?s offense against Air Force?s
defense. UNLV starting quarterback Kurt Nantkes left the Wisconsin game
with a groin injury after the first series. Sophomore Shane Steichen took
over and directed an offense that recorded only 174 total yards and
converted just 1-of-13 third down situations. Then again, Wisconsin?s
defense is much better than Air Force?s, and UNLV running back Dominique
Dorsey showed promise in a 42?17 loss to Tennessee the previous week. Air
Force gave up 413 total yards (293 passing) against Eastern Washington and
will make UNLV?s offense suddenly look better.
UNLV by 9
Minnesota at Colorado State
This is a rare trip West for the Gophers, who will be looking to redeem
themselves after last week?s 37?21 win over Illinois State. What? Well,
coach Glen Mason was angry with his team?s performance against the
Division I-AA Redbirds, so the Gophers were likely to have his attention
in practice. Speaking of redemption, Colorado State will try to bounce
back after a 49?0 defeat at USC.
Both of these teams looked a lot better in the season openers, as
Minnesota pounded Toledo and CSU easily could have beaten Colorado, but
blew a goal-line sequence at the end of the game. The Gophers will try to
hammer CSU on the ground, with running backs Marion Barber III and
Laurence Maroney leading the way. Quarterback Bryan Cupito is much more
effective when the backs are running well, as was the case when Minnesota
racked up 700 yards against Toledo.
CSU?s defense is obviously vulnerable, having surrendered 322 rushing
yards to USC. The Trojans finished with 553 total yards and 32 first downs
? including 22 in the first half.
CSU?s offense is capable, judging by quarterback Justin Holland?s 400-yard
day against Colorado, but the trip to USC was obviously a different story.
The Trojans pressured Holland, resulting in four sacks and four
interceptions. While Holland passed for 233 yards, the Rams had only 48
net rushing yards.
CSU?s fans get revved up for nationally televised night games, with the
Rams having become a Thursday night staple in recent years. This one?s on
a Saturday and, while the Rams will come out with some fire, Minnesota?s
running game will eventually wear them down. Mason will demand a better
performance, and the lackluster win over Illinois State will ultimately
help the Gophers.
Minnesota by 6
USC at BYU
The last visit of a No. 1 team to Provo, Utah, produced one of the most
memorable games in BYU history. Defending national champion Miami came to
town and became the launching pad for quarterback Ty Detmer?s successful
Heisman Trophy campaign, as the Cougars upset the ?Canes. But that was a
long time ago ? 1990, to be exact, and things have changed for BYU. This
game was originally booked as the Cougars? season opener. Notre Dame
engineered a series of changes involving several schools in the interest
of playing a game before meeting Michigan. That plan worked well for the
Fighting Irish ? and BYU, which created hope for this season and coach
Gary Crowton?s future by beating Notre Dame.
But while the Irish went on to upset Michigan, BYU crumbled in the second
half of a 37?10 loss at Stanford. Part of the reason was the Cougars were
down to their No. 3 quarterback ? junior college transfer Jason Beck, who
was making his first Division I-A appearance. Starter Matt Berry, the
original No. 2 quarterback, lasted three plays at Stanford before hurting
his hand. John Beck, the No.1 quarterback, actually mopped up in the
fourth quarter, so he might be ready for USC.
The bigger question is will BYU?s defense be ready for USC? The Cougars?
aggressive style worked against Notre Dame, but they gave up too many big
plays against Stanford, as Trent Edwards? first two completions covered
119 yards. BYU will be geared toward stopping USC?s running game, which
accounted for 322 yards in last week?s 49?0 win over Colorado State, and
trying to pressure quarterback Matt Leinart. Good luck.
USC by 28
MWC Preview
Other Games
San Diego State at Michigan (Big Ten Preview)
New Mexico at Oregon State (Pac-10 Preview)
Utah at Utah State (Sun Belt Preview)
Bye ? Wyoming
The Division I-AA Bears will come to San Jose loaded with a couple of top
nicknames if nothing else. Quarterback Bradshaw Littlejohn ? nicknamed The
Big Show ? is 6-foot-3, 258 pounds. Defensive tackle Aaris Johnson ?
nickname Tank ? is 6-4, 320. Tank opened the season with two sacks, a
forced fumble and a fumble recovery against Division II Bowie State. San
Jose State returns to the field after a nightmare opener and a bye. The
Spartans nearly had to forfeit the Stanford game when they were told a day
before that up to 17 players were ineligible. Coaches cut the list to six,
and expected all to be ruled eligible eventually.
San Jose State by 14
Buffalo at Nevada
Buffalo gets a chance to prove it?s not the worst team in Division I-A
football. They opened with a 34?30 heartbreaker against Eastern Michigan
and a 37?17 loss to Syracuse in front of a sold-out home crowd. This could
be a high-scoring affair, as neither team has showed much defense.
Nevada, 6?1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents the last two-plus seasons,
needs to find its footing quickly under new/old coach Chris Ault. The Pack
plays at San Diego State, at UNLV and at Hawaii the next three weeks, with
WAC contenders Rice and Tulsa headed to Reno after that.
Nevada by 12
Portland State at Fresno State
The Bulldogs make their first appearance at home after an impressive 2?0
start against Washington and Kansas State.
The fans should be fired up, and the Bulldogs have been unbeatable of late
in home openers (5?0 SU, 3?1 ATS).They also have dominated Portland State
with a 5?0 mark, including three wins against the Vikings in Pat Hill?s
first seven seasons with the Bulldogs.
Fresno State by 38
Navy at Tulsa
Two of 2003?s most surprising teams clash in Tulsa. For the Midshipmen,
4?1 ATS vs. the WAC since 2000, it?s a chance for a 3?0 start that would
prove Paul Johnson?s team is no fluke. The Middies beat Duke 27?12 in the
opener and squeaked past I-AA Northeastern last week. For the Hurricane,
6?12?1 ATS in non-conference games since 1998, a loss would make them one
of this season?s most disappointing teams, although the schedule has done
them no favors. They?re already 0?2 ? with road losses at Kansas and
Oklahoma State. Navy quarterback Aaron Polanco is a serious threat on the
ground. He already has two 100-yard games and five rushing touchdowns. He
completed 8-of-9 passes against Duke, so he can throw, too.
Tulsa also features a dual-threat quarterback. James Kilian, who passed
for 170 yards and two touchdowns against Oklahoma State, often scrambles
for first downs. This will be Tulsa?s third straight game against a 2003
bowl team.
Navy by 1
Hawaii at Rice
This is a critical game in the WAC race. Rice, which has won five of its
last six dating to last season, can become a serious conference
championship contender with a win. The Owls don?t have to play league
favorite Boise State. Hawaii, which got stunned by Florida Atlantic in the
opener at home, can?t afford to lose this one. The Warriors still have to
travel to Boise State and Fresno State.
Both teams got a week off to prepare for the other?s unique offense. The
Owls run the spread option; the Warriors employ the run-and-shoot. They
also have opposite concerns in this game. Rice, which upset Houston 10?7
in its opener, needs to find a way to score. Hawaii, a 35?28 loser, needs
to find a way to stop somebody.
The series history favors a tight game. Rice is 5?0 ATS against Hawaii and
18?4?1 as a home underdog under coach Ken Hatfield, and Hawaii is 5?8 ATS
on the road in September since 1995.
The key might be how much pressure Rice can put on star quarterback Timmy
Chang. Chang faces a Rice defense that recorded nine sacks against Houston
gunslinger Kevin Kolb.
Rice by 2
Boise State at UTEP
The Broncos own the WAC, and the Miners. Boise State has beaten UTEP four
straight years and is 3?1 ATS vs. the Miners. The Broncos carry win
streaks of 13 overall and 18 in WAC play into this game. Both are the
longest in Division I-A.
The Broncos opened the season with 50-plus-point performances against
Idaho and Oregon State. Sophomore quarterback Jared Zabransky settled into
the starting role nicely with a mixture of pocket passing, rollout passing
and scrambling.
The Miners (1?1) rebounded from a tough trip to Arizona State by beating
I-AA Weber State in coach Mike Price?s home debut. Now Price will find out
how much work he needs to do to get the Miners into the WAC?s upper
echelon. Sophomore quarterback Jordan Palmer ? the younger brother of
Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer ? has been erratic. He must limit his
interceptions to keep the Miners competitive. The Broncos did show some
vulnerability to the pass against Oregon State, although the Beavers were
playing catch-up.
Boise State by 28
WAC Preview
Other Games
Louisiana Tech at Miami (ACC Preview)
SMU at Oklahoma State (Big 12 Preview)
Arizona State?s potentially special 2003 season started to spiral out of
control in Iowa City. The 2?0 Sun Devils, ranked 16th in the nation,
managed just 184 total yards in a 21?2 loss to Iowa. Including that
setback, ASU lost seven of its last 10 SU and eight of its last 10 ATS.
Well, ASU, 2?0 once again, has a shot at redemption in the desert, but the
Sun Devils are just 4?10 ATS when revenging a loss in the Dirk Koetter era.
Iowa is 2?0 SU (1?1 ATS) in 2004, and the Hawkeyes are doing it with
defense once again. Norm Parker?s unit has given up just one offensive
touchdown and a total of 343 yards through two games ? wins over Kent
State and Iowa State.
After ranking 20th in the nation in passing offense and 96th in rushing a
year ago, the Sun Devils are searching for some balance on offense.
Tailback Loren Wade went over the 100-yard mark in the win over
Northwestern, but running the ball on Iowa will be far more challenging.
If ASU is unable to get its tailbacks going ? which was the case last year
against Iowa ? it will make life difficult for senior quarterback Andrew
Walter.
Iowa has won six of its last nine ATS on the road and has been a very
strong play since the start of the 2002 season with a 19?7 record ATS.
Iowa by 7
UCLA at Washington
In recent years, this series has been dominated by the Bruins, who are 6?1
SU and 6?0?1 ATS in the last seven against Washington. UCLA was one of the
worst offensive teams in the nation last year ? 100th in scoring offense,
110th in total offense ? but still managed 46 points in a 30-point win
over the Huskies in L.A.
The Bruins are off to a decent start offensively in 2004, with a
27.5-point average through two games ? a home loss to Oklahoma State and a
win at Illinois. And 27 points could be an important number in this game
for the UCLA offense; Washington is 0?7 SU and ATS in the Keith Gilbertson
era when allowing 27 or more points.
Washington has major issues at quarterback, but the key to this game will
be the Huskies? ability to take advantage of UCLA?s poor run defense. The
Bruins gave up a staggering 426 rushing yards in the loss to Oklahoma
State and 208 in the win at Illinois. If UW tailback Kenny James (75 yards
on 17 carries in the opener against Fresno State) is not well over the
100-yard mark against the Bruins, it could be a long day for the UW
offense.
UCLA by 3
Wisconsin at Arizona
Don?t expect too much offense when Wisconsin heads to Tucson this weekend.
With a first-year starter at quarterback (sophomore John Stocco) and an
injury to tailback Anthony Davis, the Badgers have been sluggish with the
ball in home wins over UCF and UNLV. They are averaging just 338.0 yards
per game and managed just one offensive touchdown against a UNLV defense
that gave up six touchdown drives of 80 yards or more in a season-opening
loss at Tennessee.
Arizona has a fiery new coach in Mike Stoops, but the Wildcats? scoring
woes (113th in the nation last year) have continued. They scored just
seven points in the first three quarters of a 21?3 win over Division I-AA
Northern Arizona, then failed to score a touchdown in a 23?6 loss to Utah
last Saturday. As expected, Stoops? club is playing well defensively.
Utah, which torched Texas A&M for 582 yards two weeks ago, totaled just
326 against Arizona.
Wisconsin has struggled as a favorite in recent years (12?22 since 2001)
but was 3?1 SU and ATS as a road favorite last season. Arizona is 5?13 as
a home dog since the start of the 1998 season.
Wisconsin by 10
New Mexico at Oregon State
Give these two programs credit: They aren?t afraid of some difficult
non-conference competition. Oregon State is 0?2 (1?1 ATS) after opening
the season at LSU and Boise State. New Mexico hits the road for the first
time after splitting a homestand against Washington State (loss) and Texas
Tech (win).
The Beavers return seven starters from the nation?s seventh ranked defense
and looked every bit as strong against LSU. Then Boise State rolled up 246
yards passing and 246 yards rushing en route to a 53?34 win.
After playing a near-flawless game against LSU, Oregon State quarterback
Derek Anderson (24 TDs, 24 INTs in 2003) was back to his old ways in
Boise. He threw for a ton of yards (411) but was picked off four times.
Anderson will have an opportunity against New Mexico ? the Lobos gave up
449 yards passing against Texas Tech ? but he must limit his mistakes. The
Beavers no longer have Steven Jackson to lean on, so Anderson, a senior,
will be forced to carry even more of the offensive burden.
Oregon State pounded New Mexico 55?14 in the 2003 Las Vegas Bowl, and the
numbers favor the Beavers once again. Oregon State is 18?5 ATS as a home
favorite since 1998 and has won six of its last eight ATS at home against
non-conference foes. New Mexico, on the other hand, is 9?15?1 ATS in
non-conference games since Rocky Long took over in 1998.
Oregon State by 10
Week 3
Other Games
California at Southern Miss (C-USA Preview)
Oregon at Oklahoma (Big 12 Preview)
USC at BYU (MWC Preview)
Washington State at Idaho (Sun Belt Preview)
Bye ? Stanford
Indiana pulled off the upset of this past weekend, beating Oregon more
than 2000 miles away from home at Autzen Stadium in a 30?24 shocker as
20-point underdogs.
Indiana jumped out to a 17?0 first-quarter lead and held on for the
six-point win. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a big, bruising back with 90-plus
yards in each of the Hoosiers? first two games. Senior quarterback Matt
LoVecchio, a former starter at Notre Dame, needed only six completed
passes to beat Oregon thanks to the strength of the running game. For a
team that has shown virtually no athleticism in recent seasons, the fact
that Indiana forced seven turnovers and had a kick return touchdown in
that ballgame could be a real sign that head coach Gerry DiNardo finally
has the program moving in the right direction.
The same cannot be said for Kentucky?s Rich Brooks. The Wildcats fell to
4?8 last season after a seven-win campaign in Guy Morriss? last season at
the helm in 2002.After a 28?0 whitewash by Louisville in the opener,
Kentucky appears very much like a team headed for a long season.
Quarterback Shane Boyd couldn?t complete half of his passes; running back
Arliss Beach managed only 24 yards on the ground; and the Wildcats?
defense forced just three punts for the entire game. Expect more offensive
woes from Kentucky this weekend.
Indiana by 6
Maine at Mississippi State
Mississippi State has experienced the highs and lows of an entire football
season in its first two weeks of game action. The Bulldogs had a magical
afternoon in Sylvester Croom?s debut, playing a near perfect second half
to earn a 28?7 victory over Tulane in a dominant defensive effort.
But Mississippi State was positively blown off the field against Auburn
this past weekend, trailing 43?0 early in the fourth quarter before
scoring a couple of late touchdowns in garbage time. The Bulldogs face off
against Maine this weekend, with a prime chance to get back over .500.
Maine is a decent I-AA team, coming in off a 38?0 shutout win over
Northern Colorado thanks to a strong rushing day from Marcus Williams, a
strong passing day from Ron Whitcomb and a pair of defensive touchdowns.
But the Black Bears don?t have athletes who can compete on an even playing
field with playmakers like Bulldogs running back Jerious Norwood or
quarterback Omarr Conner, making this a relatively easy game for Croom?s
club to control.
Mississippi State by 26
Arkansas at UL-Monroe (at Little Rock)
Louisiana-Monroe is not the type of smaller school program that goes on
the road against BCS conference opposition and expects to compete. Charlie
Weatherbie?s Indians were blown off the field at Auburn in a 31?0 shutout
loss on opening day, allowing more than five yards per carry from Cadillac
Williams and Ronnie Brown.
The Indians lost at LSU 49?7, at Mississippi 59?14 and at Auburn 73?7 in
2003.They are not a club that is likely to test Houston Nutt?s Razorbacks.
The only question here is whether Nutt will be able to get his very young
squad focused in time for kickoff, as this is a major sandwich game for
the Hogs. Will they be able to respond positively to their near-upset of
No. 6 Texas, or will the memories of quarterback Matt Jones? late fumble
that cost them a chance at the win haunt them this week?
With their SEC opener vs. Alabama on deck, this is the type of game in
which Arkansas might just show up and expect the win without much effort.
Arkansas by 23
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt has had two weeks to recover from its crushing defeat on
opening day, a 31?6 pasting from South Carolina. With 21 returning
starters, the Commodores had high hopes for the 2004 season, a year that
coach Bobby Johnson has been building for since his arrival in Nashville
prior to the 2002 season. The Commodores haven?t won a road game in SEC
play since their road finale in 2000 at Kentucky. They lost their four
conference road games last year by an average of more than three
touchdowns.
Junior quarterback Jay Cutler has some skills, but his supporting cast is
simply too small and too slow to do much in this athletic conference
except for pull off the occasional upset over a distracted foe.
Unfortunately for the 2004 Commodores, experience does not beat speed and
raw talent in modern college football very often.
Ole Miss is a squad that has struggled mightily in their first two games
of the season against tough competition, getting beaten at home by an
upstart Memphis squad, then getting blasted on the road at Alabama this
past Saturday. The Rebels managed only nine first downs and 185 total
yards as young quarterbacks Micheal Spurlock and Ethan Flatt failed to
move the offense, combining to complete only 10 of their 27 passing
attempts.
And the Rebels? defense has been unable to contain the run, allowing a
100-yard rusher in each of their first two games. After losing three top
defensive linemen and three quality starting linebackers to graduation, we
can expect those struggles against the run to continue this week, as
Vanderbilt finds a way to keep this one close.
Ole Miss by 2
Marshall at Georgia
This is a very tough spot for the Thundering Herd of Marshall. After
getting upset at home by a surprising Troy squad in the opener, Marshall
went on the road and gave Ohio State everything it could handle, falling
on a 54-yard field goal from Buckeye kicker Mike Nugent on the final play
of the game. After that type of effort on both sides of the football,
Marshall now has to head on the road once again, to face an angry Georgia
squad, disappointed from its poor showing at South Carolina. The Bulldogs
trailed 16?0 in that ballgame thanks to mistakes, turnovers and penalties
that positively killed them early. While senior quarterback David Greene
was able to rally the team to a four-point win, it wasn?t the type of
showing that head coach Mark Richt expects to see out of a club that has
hopes of competing for a national championship.
Marshall was able to move the ball on the ground successfully against Ohio
State, getting 146 yards on 33 carries from running backs Ahmad Bradshaw
and Earl Charles. Senior quarterback Stan Hill didn?t turn the ball over,
effectively utilizing the short passing game to move the chains. And, for
the second consecutive week, Marshall did an excellent job defending the
run. But coming off that loss, with a major revenge matchup against MAC
conference rival Miami (Ohio) on deck, this could be a very flat spot for
the Thundering Herd.
That?s bad news against a Georgia team ready to take out its frustrations
after a pair of mediocre offensive showings by a squad that many expect to
compete for a national championship in 2004. Look for Greene to rebound
from his poor performance at South Carolina last week and lead his team to
a big win.
Georgia by 24
LSU at Auburn
Auburn had rebounded from its 0?2 start, winning five in a row and looking
like the championship contender that they were supposed to be prior to its
meeting with LSU last year. But the eventual BCS champs dominated the
game, holding Auburn to 50 rushing yards (1.5 yards per carry), while
sacking quarterback Jason Campbell four times en route to a 31?7 victory.
Auburn never recovered from that defeat, losing conference games to Ole
Miss and Georgia over the final month of the campaign. LSU?s run defense
appears to be just as dominant in 2004, holding Oregon State to 84 rushing
yards in its opening day victory and Arkansas State to just 54 rushing
yards in a 53?3 blowout over the Indians this past Saturday. When Ronnie
Brown and Cadillac Williams have room to run, like they did this past
weekend at Mississippi State, Auburn is a very tough team to beat.
But when Brown and Williams don?t have room to run, the Auburn offense is
generally very stagnant. Senior quarterback Jason Campbell has regressed,
not progressed, during his collegiate career. He couldn?t even complete
half of his passes against a poor Bulldogs pass defense last week and has
never been able to carry the team on his back without a strong running
game to support him. Facing LSU and its dominant rush defense, Auburn
could struggle to move the football in this ballgame.
But LSU could have some problems moving the ball against Auburn?s stout
defense as well. Auburn has allowed a total of 14 points in its two games
this season, both touchdowns coming in garbage time vs. Mississippi State
after Auburn had taken a 43?0 lead into the fourth quarter. Auburn?s
defense was ranked fifth in the nation last year in yardage allowed and
ninth in the nation in terms of points allowed. Coordinator Gene Chizik
had great success at Central Florida, success that has carried over to his
first two seasons with the Tigers.
The defense lost three starters from the line to graduation, making it
suspect against the run in 2004. But all four members of the secondary
return, including star cornerback Carlos Rogers. LSU does not have a great
passing game this season. Senior quarterback Marcus Randall is similar to
Jason Campbell in the fact that he has never quite lived up to
expectations, still making poor decisions and bad throws in his final
collegiate season. And youngster JaMarcus Russell, who has split playing
time with Randall in each of the first two games, will be seeing his first
action on the road in SEC play against a quality secondary. That means
this game is likely to be decided on the ground. Justin Vincent and Joseph
Addai win this one for LSU if they can find enough room to break free once
or twice against the Auburn defense.
LSU by 4
Western Carolina at Alabama
Alabama has looked impressive in each of its two victories to open the
season. The Crimson Tide shut the door on Utah State in the opener,
showing a killer instinct that simply wasn?t there in Mike Shula?s first
year at the helm. And they put on a defensive show against Ole Miss this
past Saturday night, holding the Rebels to a single touchdown and just
nine first downs for the game.
Quarterback Brodie Croyle is finally living up to expectations, completing
30 of his 44 passing attempts over the first two games for more than 10
yards per completion. He has thrown four touchdowns without an
interception. And Croyle is seeing the field very well ? seven different
receivers caught his 14 passes against Ole Miss this past weekend.
The running back by committee approach is working as well. Ray Hudson and
Ken Darby have both shown flashes of big-play ability, bad news for a
Western Carolina squad that simply can?t compete on a physical level with
the better Division I-A programs.
Alabama does have its SEC road opener at Arkansas next week, so there is a
legitimate threat of distraction ? this team lost at home to Northern
Illinois last year prior to their game with Arkansas. Don?t expect that to
happen two years in a row.
Alabama by 37
South Florida at South Carolina
South Carolina did almost enough to beat Georgia this past weekend, but
the Dondrial Pinkins-led offense sputtered with the game on the line in
the fourth quarter, and Lou Holtz?s squad came up four points short.
The Gamecocks have responded well to early-season losses in recent seasons
under Holtz. Last year, following each of their first three losses of the
season, South Carolina bounced right back the next week with a victory
against lesser competition. And Holtz has shown an uncharacteristic
willingness to beat up on inferior foes in recent seasons. Last year,
following their loss to Georgia, the Gamecocks bounced back with a 42?10
win over UAB the following week. In 2002, South Carolina beat Temple by
three touchdowns and Mississippi State by 24 points, each coming in the
first half of the season.
South Florida has yet to play a Division I-A opponent this season, or a
road game, as head coach Jim Leavitt tries to prepare his club for entry
into the Big East in 2005. The Bulls are a tough team to beat at home, but
they have not had any sort of success against BCS conference opposition as
a road underdog in recent years.
South Carolina by 18
Florida at Tennessee
The recent history of the Florida-Tennessee series is one that heavily
favors the road team ? the visitor has won the game straight up in each of
the last four seasons, including Tennessee?s 24?10 victory in the Swamp
last September. The Gators, in particular, have been a much better team on
the road under third-year head coach Ron Zook then they have been at home.
Last year, the Gators lost at home three times but won on the road at LSU
and Arkansas while beating Georgia in Jacksonville and nearly upsetting
Miami in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Neyland Stadium in Knoxville has not
been a house of horrors for visitors of late ? the Vols have lost four
home games over the past two years.
Both squads have high hopes and intense pressure in 2004. Zook isn?t
likely to keep his job unless Florida makes some real noise in the SEC
East race and gets his team to a New Year?s Day bowl victory. Back-to-back
five-loss seasons have not made the Gainesville faithful particularly
patient. But Phil Fulmer at Tennessee is under no less pressure, though
his job is not on the line. The Volunteers have failed to meet
expectations in each of the last two years, suffering a couple of blowout
bowl losses as well. Their eight losses over the past two seasons are the
most since Fulmer arrived in Knoxville in the early ?90s. Both of these
schools have proud traditions of winning, but each has been surpassed by
Georgia and LSU in the race for supremacy in this very competitive
conference.
This game is likely to be decided by the play of the young quarterbacks on
both sides. Florida?s Chris Leak had an impressive start to his sophomore
campaign, completing 16 of his 25 pass attempts vs. Eastern Michigan for
244 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Leak went 6?3 as a
starter last year for the best record of any freshman quarterback in the
nation.
Tennessee?s defense was not sharp in its opener against UNLV, giving up
121 yards on 18 carries to Dominique Dorsey. So, the Gators? Ciatrick
Fason and DeShawn Wynn should be able to move the football on the ground,
opening things up for Leak and the passing game. But the Gators? defense
dropped at least three sure interceptions and missed a key tackle that
allowed a touchdown in the win over Eastern Michigan in the season opener
this past weekend. And the Gators defense has been statistically mediocre
for the past two seasons, allowing three touchdowns per game and four
yards per rush.
But Tennessee has a pair of true freshman quarterbacks ? this will be, by
far, the toughest defense that Brent Schaeffer and Erik Ainge have ever
seen. Beating UNLV is not the same as beating Florida. Look for the
success of the road team in this series to continue on Saturday.
Florida by 3
One of the MAC?s oldest and most traditional showcase games takes center
stage on Saturday, as Miami hosts Ohio in Oxford in the league opener for
both teams.
Ohio took some positives away from their 24?3 loss at Pittsburgh last
week. The Bobcats? defense, which was racked by injuries last year, held
the Panthers to just two offensive touchdowns and 217 total yards. The
Bobcats have ditched their traditional option attack and are using a
pro-style passing game this season. It continues to be a work in progress.
Ohio quarterback Ryan Hawk hit 19-of-41 passes for 169 yards while rushing
for 57 more against Pitt, but a third quarter 42-yard interception return
for a touchdown by the Panthers? Malcolm Postell ended any hopes of an
upset. For the Miami RedHawks, their home test with Ohio will be their
second rivalry game in as many weeks. Miami was out-slugged by Cincinnati
45?26 last week.
Miami found little success running the football against Cincinnati and was
held to just 37 ground yards. New MU quarterback Josh Betts tossed four
interceptions in the RedHawks? season opening 43?10 loss at Michigan two
weeks ago but rebounded by going 26-of-43 for 416 yards and four
touchdowns at Cincinnati. Look for Miami to establish a more balanced
attack against Ohio.
Ohio is 0?4 SU and ATS in its last four trips to Miami. Ohio is 1?7 ATS in
its last eight September games.
Miami by 10
Toledo at Eastern Michigan
After two weeks, you?d be hard-pressed to find a more disappointing team
than the Toledo Rockets. Tom Amstutz?s club was considered by many to be
among the best bets to take this year?s role of BCS busters but have been
awful in road losses at Minnesota and Kansas. The Jayhawks took Toledo out
of the game early last week and hammered the Rockets 63?14.
Toledo?s lack of early season offensive production is baffling. UT
quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is among the best passers in the MAC, while
his top target Lance Moore is still around after leading the nation in
receptions last year. Moore caught just three passes for nine yards at
Kansas. Toledo?s traditionally massive offensive line features All-America
candidate Nick Kaczur, but as a unit the Rockets line has come up woefully
short in the first two games ? both lopsided losses. If it?s possible,
Toledo?s defense has been even worse. UT has allowed 126 points in the
first two games, a Rocket record for defensive futility. Toledo allowed a
school-record 49 points in the first half at Kansas, one week after tying
the mark by giving up 42 first-half points in a 63?21 loss at Minnesota.
While it?s understandable if Toledo is questioning itself after two
unexpectedly bad losses, Eastern Michigan heads into this game against its
geographically closest MAC rival with a glimmer of hope. Eastern Michigan
opened the season two weeks ago under new head coach Jeff Genyk with a
37?34 home win over Buffalo. The Eagles piled up 248 rushing yards against
the UB Bulls and got a solid performance at quarterback from Iowa transfer
Matt Bohnet, who completed 11-of-20 attempts for 91 yards in his first
start.
But any hopes of going 2?0 for the first time in 15 years were dashed last
week in the Swamp, as Florida drilled Eastern Michigan 49?10. Bohnet was
19-of-36 for 201 yards, no interceptions and a 22-yard TD pass against the
Gators, but Anthony Sherrell, who rushed for 151 yards against Buffalo and
an EMU record 1,531 last season, was limited to just 24 yards on 16
carries.
EMU is 11?4 ATS in its last 15 games after a road blowout loss of 21
points for more. Toledo is 3?1 ATS vs. Eastern Michigan in the last four
meetings.
Toledo by 14
SE Missouri St. at Central Michigan
After opening the Brian Kelly era with back-to-back road losses against
Big Ten opponents Indiana and Michigan State, new Chips head coach Brian
Kelly makes his home debut against I-AA Southeast Missouri State. Despite
an 0?2 mark, in the wake of a competitive 24?7 loss in East Lansing and
Indiana?s upset win at Oregon, CMU has to be feeling pretty good about
itself heading into a test against SEMO. Sophomore Jerry Seymour may be
among the most exciting players the nation has yet to see. At 5'6" and a
solid 195 pounds, Seymour rushed for 164 yards on 26 carries at Michigan
State, including a 90-yard TD run.
Southeast Missouri State continues its tour of the MAC West at CMU on
Saturday after losing 49?10 at Bowling Green last week. SEMO?s 359 yards
of total offense at BG gives the Indians hope they can move the ball on
the Chips.
Central Michigan by 14
Week 3
Other Games
Akron at Virginia (ACC Preview)
Ball State at Missouri (Big 12 Preview)
Buffalo at Nevada (WAC Preview)
Kent State at Rutgers (Big East Preview)
Marshall at Georgia (SEC Preview)
Northern Illinois at Iowa State (Big 12 Preview)
UCF at Penn State (Big 10 Preview)
Western Michigan at Illinois (Big 10 Preview)
Bye ? Bowling Green
Two teams reeling from gut-wrenching defeats collide in what amounts to a
home game for both. Washington State outgained Colorado by 299 yards but
the Cougars were done in by three turnovers and miscues on special teams
in a 20?12 loss. Idaho was unable to cash in on five takeaways and saw a
splendid drive die via penalty late in a 14?7 defeat at Utah State.
Officially, it?s Idaho?s home opener even though the contest will be
played in WSU?s Martin Stadium. The two institutions stare down each other
from across the state line.
The teams feature contrasting offensive styles. Idaho runs the ball 60
percent of the time while Washington State has gone upstairs on 56 percent
of its plays. Just who will do the tossing for the Cougars is hard to say.
Sophomore starter Josh Swogger was benched after a horrendous start
against Colorado. In his first appearance, freshman Alex Brink was
12-of-23 for 251 yards, but he also had an interception returned for what
proved to be the game-winning TD. Regardless of who gets the call, look
for receiver Jason Hill to get the ball. Against Colorado, Hill caught six
passes for 206 yards.
True freshman Jayson Bird, who wasn?t even on the 2-deep last week, has
rushed for 171 yards on 21 carries in two games for Idaho.
The Vandals are stoked with emotion and enthusiasm under first year coach
Nick Holt. But it?s the Cougars that are stocked with talent.
Washington State by 18
Utah at Utah State
This intrastate rivalry will feature one of the better quarterback
match-ups of the season so far between Utah?s Alex Smith and Utah State?s
Travis Cox. Smith thrives in coach Urban Meyer?s spread offense while Cox
leads the most prolific passing attack in the Sun Belt. But Smith has been
more efficient, which is a big reason why Utah is surging in the national
polls.
Smith is 33-of-51 for 529 yards, five TDs and no picks. In Steven Savoy
and Paris Warren, the Utes have a pair of dynamic receivers who have
accounted for 69 percent of the team?s passing yards. Cox is 37-of-65 for
419 on the season, but has thrown as many INTs, four, as TDs.
Utah?s crisp offense also features a formidable ground game. Marty Johnson
leads a rushing attack that has generated 184 yards per game and 4.4 yards
per carry. That stands in sharp contrast to Utah State, which has managed
only 119 yards on the ground in two games. The Aggies were stymied by
sloppy play with five turnovers, two dropped passes in the end zone and a
fumble on the goal line. That was enough to squeak past Idaho, 14?7, but a
comparable performance would be a disaster against Utah, which has yet to
commit a turnover this season. This looks like a Utah romp. But hosting a
rival makes it interesting.
Utah by 14
Memphis at Arkansas State
Arkansas State has paid dearly for its two season-opening paydays. The
Indians have been throttled by Missouri and LSU, giving up more than 50
points to each. Now they return to Jonesboro for their home opener against
Memphis. Will they be mauled by Tigers for the third week in a row? Sure
looks that way.
Memphis is a team on the prowl, lurking on the outskirts of the top 25.
Danny Wimprine leads an offense that is producing 444 yards per game, with
more than two-thirds of that total coming via the pass. Through two games,
nine players have caught two or more passes with no one snagging more than
five. But Memphis? calling card is its running game, namely DeAngelo
Williams. With his 136 yards in last week?s 52?21 pasting of Chattanooga,
Williams has rushed for more than 100 yards in 12 consecutive games.
Arkansas State quarterback Nick Noce has been steady, completing 28-of-44
for 387 yards. Chuck Walker has been on the receiving end of nine passes
for 239 yards. On the ground, leading rusher Shermar Bracey managed just
four carries for eight yards against LSU.
Don?t look for a breakout performance against a Memphis defense that is
allowing less than 300 yards per game.
Memphis by 20
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee
One week after stunning Hawaii in overtime, Florida Atlantic upended
3-time defending Sun Belt champ North Texas with a touchdown on its last
play. This week FAU returns to Middle Tennessee where they downed the Blue
Raiders on the final play a year ago.
FAU quarterback Jared Allen, running back Doug Parker and receiver Anthony
Crissinger-Hill, must be anxious to get after a defense that allowed 502
yards (339 passing) in last week?s 31?24 win at Akron.
Middle has receivers Chris Henry and Kerry Wright but not much else. The
Blue Raiders mustered only 64 rushing yards in their opener.
Florida Atlantic by 10
Troy at New Mexico State
One week after its coming-out party against Missouri, Troy hits the road
for its Sun Belt opener at New Mexico State. Against such a backdrop, one
would think a lengthy trek to dusty Las Cruces would be quite a let down.
One would be wrong.
The Trojans have proven to be one of the hardest working teams in the
business. The stunner over Missouri followed a win at Marshall. DeWhitt
Betterson is a classy running back and should he falter, Troy can always
turn to lineman Junior Louissaint who recovered a fumble and rambled 63
yards for a TD last week.
New Mexico State has been blown out in both games thus far. They?ll regain
some respect Saturday but not enough to slow the Trojans.
Troy by 10
Week 3
Other Games
UL-Lafayette at Kansas State (Big 12 Preview)
UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas (Little Rock) (SEC Preview)
North Texas at Colorado (Big 12 Preview)
Hawaii will stop the option and Chang wiil display his gun.
That's what this site is all about.
THANKS Mike !
PEACE, Shawn
Thank you, Mike