Rip's Gambling Methodology
Rip007
Banned
Posted in other forums, but thought I'd share this:
credentials: longtime bookmaker, tax professional, 40 years sportsbetting experience
goal:
simple but Important points: winner go to dinner, pay your bills when you win, when you win you are playing with YOUR money, not the bookmakers
set a constant weekly goal, appox 300.00 weekly cutoff on loses
find a local with a 100. 00 drag, think it (too difficult with (sportsbooks)
50.00 dollar bet example:
ok, what you are trying to do here is attain 150.00 to 200.00 in winnings weekly, experience has taught me 300.00 to difficult
say, you take home 800.00 weekly, what you are attempting to do is increase your net......say of that you pay 600'00 in bills, if you win 150.00 you are paying bills on 750.00, and trying to attain this goal 2 or 3 weeks in a row (short-term)
some weeks it might take you 3 games to reach, 150.00, other weeks it might take you 13 games to win the 3 games, other weeks you might lose 3 games in a row.........[think 3).........you do not want to be playing a lot of games at one time
method: I look a line history, I "painstakingly" reviewed on a daily/weekly basis, all nba, college football
for two years games writing down notes , college bb , is tough so many games
but doable
there are certain "constants" in the line history...gotta do some work......
never overlook any piece of information, I pay attention to a tout sheet that hits at 59%,
I saw a move on the Gonzaga/Santa Clara game last week, right at tip, saw two guards for Santa Clara out winner !
Summation: you are not going to win all the time, this has losing streaks as well, I lost 500.00 on halve/quarter bets
last month.....the point being you HAVE to being the game.......if you pay your bills when you win, and you win 2 or 3 weeks in a row......you are off and running......if I can do it, you can too, there is something to be said for having the peace of mind of No immediate bill pressure
credentials: longtime bookmaker, tax professional, 40 years sportsbetting experience
goal:
simple but Important points: winner go to dinner, pay your bills when you win, when you win you are playing with YOUR money, not the bookmakers
set a constant weekly goal, appox 300.00 weekly cutoff on loses
find a local with a 100. 00 drag, think it (too difficult with (sportsbooks)
50.00 dollar bet example:
ok, what you are trying to do here is attain 150.00 to 200.00 in winnings weekly, experience has taught me 300.00 to difficult
say, you take home 800.00 weekly, what you are attempting to do is increase your net......say of that you pay 600'00 in bills, if you win 150.00 you are paying bills on 750.00, and trying to attain this goal 2 or 3 weeks in a row (short-term)
some weeks it might take you 3 games to reach, 150.00, other weeks it might take you 13 games to win the 3 games, other weeks you might lose 3 games in a row.........[think 3).........you do not want to be playing a lot of games at one time
method: I look a line history, I "painstakingly" reviewed on a daily/weekly basis, all nba, college football
for two years games writing down notes , college bb , is tough so many games
but doable
there are certain "constants" in the line history...gotta do some work......
never overlook any piece of information, I pay attention to a tout sheet that hits at 59%,
I saw a move on the Gonzaga/Santa Clara game last week, right at tip, saw two guards for Santa Clara out winner !
Summation: you are not going to win all the time, this has losing streaks as well, I lost 500.00 on halve/quarter bets
last month.....the point being you HAVE to being the game.......if you pay your bills when you win, and you win 2 or 3 weeks in a row......you are off and running......if I can do it, you can too, there is something to be said for having the peace of mind of No immediate bill pressure
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Find stuff that you are +EV in and play it
Find others that are +EV and play their stuff
Find offmarket stuff (ie stuff that you could scalp at a major offshore if you wanted to) and play it
Find obscure stuff that's not correctly lined (you're likely talking props at this point)
Find a slow moving book and play moves with them before they post them (note that this will also involve feeding them some "square" action likely, so this is where I try to play my own stuff that I feel is +EV)
Set aside a set amount of $ that is your bankroll. Don't worry how you do on a certain day, week, or even month for that matter. Just keep firing stuff that's +EV and eventually it will head in the right direction. And make sure to keep a whole bunch of outs and always line shop for that extra half point (or extra cent of two on a moneyline).
Does coherency in posting count?
subjective vote, he'd ban you otherwise !
Pretty sure Dr. H (and every other pro/semi-pro) would vote for TommyL's method no matter who posted it. Sorry.
This reminds me of the VP joker (drawing a blank on his name) whose "method" involved reaching a trip win goal and then going home before returning for another trip (as if somehow tagging his his house between sessions would impact his long-run results).
I will refrain from giving any (experience- related )advice in the future......back to my coin flips, the "board" gave me LaSalle today see what happens
How dare you have a different opinion than the cult leaders. Drink the Kool Aid
This is like trying to claim 2 + 3 = 7 and then bitching about being ostracized by the cult that says it's 5.
There's a reason to follow certain opinions/established norms in these cases... because they're more fact than opinion.
By all means, gamble however you see fit with your money. I hope you know I'm not disagreeing with you just for the hell of it as I'm the last person who enjoys pointless internet arguing (while others love it for whatever reason).
Respectful of others opinions is one thing, but if you can save people from listening to opinions that could hurt them, speaking up is not wrong. A harmless opinion is "I'll take Brady over Manning any day". A harmful opinion is this thread because it goes against facts.
If you lose, do you not pay your bills? If you still pay your bills then why do you mention to pay your bills when you win. Isn't that a given?
to your views on capping......not bashing anything or saying of what you guys do is wrong.......you can't have it both ways.......do you want an "enlightened forum" or an "elitist utopia"..........majority rules, I guess......(.detrimental,) think that's a bit of a reach....not all of" main st" has 3k
or 5k to tie up during the course of a baseball, football season,.. so "long term" has little meaning to recreational betters, and my thread was geared to them....my mistake, I see what I am up against here...won't happen again......but I think you are" off base" on how you treat posters that disagree with you .......
It's not that we are treating you different because you have a different view on things. It's because you are flat out wrong. Like SY stated it can be harmful for others who may not know better. There is no one on earth that has been up in the long term following your type of strategy.
That statement is just wrong.
I'm not getting into any discussion but you should seriously think about that statement.
If you paid off all those things that's great but sooner or later you will regress to the mean and if you are playing with money for bills, what are you going to do? Oh wait nvm you plan on winning every week. Got it.
Durito, If you read the beginning of the thread, I study line history,I look for "constants" if you saw the pages of notes I have.... anyway the(info I need is tricky, but there ) most of my "limited success" comes in college football, I use BG's plays in NFL in conjunction with numerous publications which I read.....and being a member of other forums, I pick up on others approach...follow BG in bases, but I could not exploit his winnings, because I abhor leaving any money in a sportsbooks account.....baseball is a bit different because it comes at you every day..........
I am going to give you an example,....in the NBA, and this tip came from a very good capper ......when a number pops in the line history of a certain sportsbook, it triggers a play, usually on a 9-10 point home /road /dog.......now, this doesn't win all the time and it only has happened 12 or 14 times
but has won I believe nine times, .......I play it on the moneyline /spreadline
I look and review numbers all the time, all games weather I play them or not ......".I know what I am doin"
So you can predict when bad streaks are gonna happen? How aren't you a millionaire yet? You realize each play is independent of the next? Meaning just cause you lost 3 in a row doesn't mean you're gonna keep losing. That's why there is variance. You can't predict that BG would start the CBB season down nearly 20 units or that SY could lose roughly 30units before July of a baseball season. That's why the only thing you can do to win over the long haul is to dig in, practice bankroll management and get ready to ride the crazy up and down swings. As far as short term, all I can say is please don't play with money you can't afford to lose ie bills and such. Good luck to whatever you try.
4 cups sifted flour
1 1/2 cups sugar
2 teaspoons cinnamon
1 cup butter
3 eggs
Cream butter until well softened and add to sugar and eggs.
Mix quickly with flour.
Drop mixture from a teaspoon and small jagged heaps onto a cookie sheet and bake in 375 to 400 degrees oven
when I left off yesterday, I stated that I have a 100.00 drag with local weekly, now in a given week( Fri to Fri) for me say if I am down say 85.00
on a Wed.,I know that I have no chance of winning for that given week ,unless I go on a small run I can bet 50/100 and lose, and most likely pay, bet 50/100 win have a small positive/negative balance, of call my friend and have him throw I one bet in for me, I have a chance to win for that week, if I lose, I lose 55/110.. and "drag" the 85.00 into next week........food for thought gotta have a little street sense
More' chocolate goodies' later, or should I say donuts
can't keep printing money
Here's another tip: pay for things with credit cards. That way you're not really spending money at all!