Really should play the Reds at around +145 but going to pass. Moscot is good at getting out of jams and I think the Reds can take advantage of some of Samardzija's home run tendencies. At the end of the day San Francisco will probably score 10 runs off this stinky bullpen to kill my bet and I'm just not feeling like trusting that pen so it's a pass.
Missed the boat on Tampa Bay as it's been steamed. Probably still value there but unless it drops I'll probably lay off.
Some value on Nats/Royals u7.5 -105 but Young is so hit or miss that I'm going to leave it alone for now.
Orioles -116
As a general rule I don't like to play games where the line has been crushed against me but I'll play this one. Not entirely sure why Baltimore was bet down from -145 but there seems to be a good bit of value. Yankees aren't hitting and Tillman has shown in the past he's capable of doing well against them. Severino isn't anything special and gives up runs in every start. Orioles are the better offense right now and their bullpen is stronger and they are at home and they have the better starting pitcher... which all begs the question why are they only -116? I'm probably falling into a trap of some sort but I'm going to go with it anyway.
Pirates +154
Cubs/Pirates u7 -115
Arrieta is a stud. He always dominates. He'll probably dominate here. I get that. The thing is that the Cubs' offense is unlikely to support him today. Niese has pitched very well at home and has the potential to blank teams when he's on. Chicago is in the bottom half in OPS against lefties. Thinking southpaw Niese has some success. Both bullpens seem trustworthy. Just feels like a 3-2 final that could go either way. Arrieta can't win them all and this seems like a game that will be a pitcher's duel. Vegas is overinflating Arrieta lines a bit IMO.
Marlins -105
Diamondbacks/Marlins u8.5 +100
Both teams hit lefties really well. Both teams have stinky bullpens. All that being said, I still like the under because I think the starters can have some success. Arizona's offense seems off lately and they didn't do a ton of scoring earlier this year when in pitcher's parks. Miami is hitting really well but Corbin is solid and should put in good innings. Thinking Marlins win 4-3. Wasn't really planning on taking the under originally but the line seems inflated so I'll give it a go.
Mets -1.5 +100
Braves/Mets o7 -125
Went back and forth on the over here but I'll go with it. The Mets have a decent chance to cover it themselves. Wisler is never dominant and the Mets are mashing. If NYM doesn't score a bunch of runs on him they should get the job done against this stinky Atlanta bullpen. Harvey still isn't as sharp as he used to be and seems like he'll give up a couple runs each start to help our over. At only 7 I think that's worth a shot. Mets win 7-3.
Dodgers/Rays u7.5 +105
Dodgers not hitting anyone. Poor against lefties. Moore at home with a strong bullpen behind him should do very well. Rays hit lefties decently enough but Kazmir is a solid vet and he knows this stadium well. Neither bullpen scares me so hopefully won't get crushed later on.
Angels/Brewers o9 -110
Both offenses seem to be in peak form. Tropeano is solid but also has some control issues and I think that hurts him here. Guerra is a 31-year old career minor leaguer who has only been okay in AAA ball. Can't see him doing well here in a spot start, and even if he does do well the Brewers' bullpen seems like a great bet to get rocked late. Total should sail over.
Mariners/Athletics u7.5 -125
Line seems a run high. Oakland's offense is scary and Iwakuma has pitched well here in the past. Gray is a stud and he should be able to go 7 strong. Both bullpens trustworthy. I like it.
Padres -120
Skipped them last night because my line was so far off (they won, blah) but I'll play them today. Two poor bullpens could make things tricky late but Rockies don't figure to hit well in San Diego. Cashner is a good starter. Butler on the other hand is getting rocked in the minors so even a light-hitting Padres squad should be able to put up runs against him. Price is right.
Cubs -135, u8 -112
Giants -140, 9 pk
Braves @ Mets (not capping as rain will be an issue)
Angels -150, o9 -115
Nationals -140, u7 -130
Mariners -130, u7 -130
Padres pk, u7.5 -125
Indians -165, 7.5 pk
Orioles -165, o9 -112
Blue Jays -200, o8.5 -115
My bets for 5/4:
Took my sweet time handicapping and missed posting the start time of the Giants' game so no bet there as far as record keeping is concerned.
Going to call it a day and leave 4 or 5 games un-capped. Running out of time. Been a hectic day.
Giants -105
Going against the big line move (which I tend to avoid) worked yesterday with the Orioles so I'll try it again here. Giants' offense is looking very nice and they should get a few runs on Straily before the Cincy bullpen gives up a bunch more. Peavy hasn't been sharp this year but Cincinnati's offense is struggling. Giants have the better pen. -105 seems cheap.
Nats/Royals u7.5 -125
This one is right on the border of what I'd usually play but I just have a feeling we'll see runs hard to come by. Wind is blasting in. Stud Strasburg against a KC offense that isn't hitting much. Medlen is very good at times. Nats dependent on home runs a bit too much lately and with the wind blasting in and Medlen not allowing many long balls I think Kris will put in quality innings. Both teams have quality bullpens. Seems like a good bet.
Mariners/Athletics u7.5 -115
Already made it known how much I love Manaea and at home in this pitcher's park I expect him to do well. Felix is Felix. He's a stud. Both teams have good bullpens. Under city.
Orioles -131
Bet is mostly due to the fact that the Orioles will score a bunch of runs against Sabathia. Wilson is still a bit of a wild card but seems capable. I'll take the home team with the better pen and a good chance to rock the opposing starter at -131 any day.
Blue Jays -1.5 +110
Not a ton of value on this play but I have a good feeling about it. Sanchez is a stud and the Rangers' offense hasn't impressed me. Ultimately the reason I'm making this play is because I don't trust Lewis or the Rangers' awful bullpen against this mighty Toronto offense. Blue Jays haven't hit well of late but they've also faced a bunch of tough pitchers. Lewis' WHIP indicates that his ERA will adjust to the mean before too long and even if he does well this bet still has legs with Sanchez holding down the Rangers and Texas' bullpen giving up late runs.
So much for those couple of productive days. 0-4 -4.76 last night. Felix got rocked, Sabathia threw his best game in forever... nothing went right. Sorry to anyone that got crushed with me.
Makes some sense to take the Cards at -177 but I'm going to leave it alone. Wind is blasting in and with Cards not hitting I worry that Garcia's potential gem could be wasted. Under has been steamed already so can't play that as I hoped.
Lean Orioles -109 but pass for now.
Small bit of value on Rangers/Jays u8.5 +100 but I'm too worried about these bullpens and Holland finally regressing to mess with me.
Lean Boston -115. I think they can hit Johnson but not 100% confident on that.
Tigers/Indians o8 -115
Looks like it's against the forum rules to risk more than 1 unit on a play (which makes sense) but between you folks and me... I'm going double on this one. Happens every once in a while that I bet double. Not often. Anyway, these starting pitchers are awful. I still have no faith in Fulmer. He was rushed to the majors before he was ready. Bauer is not ready either and Detroit rocked him numerous times last season. 8 seems like a joke even with the wind coming in a bit. Not sure either starter makes it to the 3rd inning really.
Brewers -102
Brewers/Reds o9 +100
I'm playing the total for another 2 units in real life. Chase Anderson has been a HR-prone mess lately and that's not good news in a hitter's park against a Cincy team with some power... but I don't think his recent results are indicitive of his potential here. He induces a lot of groundouts and has pitched very well on the road against Cincy in the past. He'll give up some runs but should be sturdy enough. Alfredo Simon is a mess and Milwaukee's offense is heating up a bit. With the wind blowing up and Milwaukee's power numbers good lately I think they knock out Simon early. Both bullpens are awful and should give up late runs. Guessing Brewers win 8-4 or so. Total looks great.
Mariners/Astros o9 -105
Either I'm losing my mind or these overs are money today. This is another one I'd be willing to bet double on. I promise I'm not pressing after some days either. Miley puts a ton of guys on base and is HR prone... in a hitter's park against a team with a ton of power. I think he gets mashed. Devenski is not ready to start in the pros yet and he gives up HRs too while facing a Mariners' squad that is clubbing the long ball. These starters are going to get knocked out early. Love the value.
Mets -171
I rarely play big favorites but in San Diego where scores are usually low I don't feel comfortable expecting a team to win by multiple runs. Padres don't hit. deGrom should dominate them. Probably goes 8 innings. Might shut them out. NYM is hitting nicely but San Diego is a tough place to hit. Mets get a lot of their runs from the long ball and that won't be here tonight in this spacious park. All that being said, Rea is hittable and usually gives up a few runs in every start. That's all the Mets will need to get the win, although the Padres having a horrible bullpen should be the icing on the cake if needed.
Rockies/Giants o7.5 +100
Not in love with this total like the others but it's too low. SF is a tough place to hit but Matt Cain has been a mess and seems like he'll give up some runs in every start. Rusin somehow dominated in his first start of the year but the fact remains that he's still not very good. Facing a patient Giants offense that hits lefties well I think San Francisco can knock in a few and then get another few against Colorado's horrible bullpen in the later innings after running up Rusin' pitch count. Line seems short.
Not saying that the Seattle/Houston game can't go over the Total but Houston isn't consider a Hitters park the way it once was. It's a middle of the road in terms of hitter friendly except for right-handed power hitters down the left field line. Miley is actually coming off a 5 hit shutout and my only concern would be that he threw 114 pitches. He's also facing a team that is underachieving so far this year and also not hitting lefties. But I'm thinking that the 16 runs may get them going. But seeing is believing. I'll pass on side and total and hope you win.. Good Luck, I enjoy your thoughts.
Every time I play the friggin' Mets they get shut out. Every other game they score a ton. If you see me bet the Mets take the team total under haha.
Anyway, if that ends up losing...
4-2 +1.27 on the day. All 3 totals hit. Got lucky on the Mariners/Astros one. Also appreciate the thoughts Old-Timer. Didn't deserve that over but it came in.
Every time I play the friggin' Mets they get shut out. Every other game they score a ton. If you see me bet the Mets take the team total under haha.
Anyway, if that ends up losing...
4-2 +1.27 on the day. All 3 totals hit. Got lucky on the Mariners/Astros one. Also appreciate the thoughts Old-Timer. Didn't deserve that over but it came in.
On the year...
47-53 -5.05u on the year.
Wasn't the Mariners/Astros over a push? You listed it as over 9 and I believe the Mariners won 6-3 resulting in a day of 3-2-1 +.27
Arghhh 3-2-1 +.27 last night and 46-53 -6.05 on the year. Thanks for pointing that out fellas. Didn't realize I got stuck with a 9 for record keeping purposes.
Some value on Twins/White Sox u9 +100 but not feeling it really. Not sure where Latos is at really but Nolasco is always hit or miss.
A's/Orioles u8 -115
Neither team hitting much lately. Rich Hill is a stud and after watching the Orioles look awful against a lesser lefty in CC a few days ago I think he'll do well. Jimenez generally pitches quality innings and Oakland's offense isn't as patient as year's past. I think both starters do well and both bullpens have been reliable thus far so under makes sense.
Red Sox/Yankees o7 -115
I really didn't want to play the over here with the wind blasting in but have to pull the trigger. The line seems far too low. This is the 2nd time recently that these teams have seen the opposing starters. I don't particularly trust either bullpen. Porcello pitching over his head and usually gives up some runs when he starts. Pineda prone to bad starts and got rocked at home against this hot-hitting Red Sox team last year. The wind scares me but I think over is the way to go with the line this low.
Rangers/Tigers u8.5 -115
Two stud pitchers here who should put in quality innings. Kind of a head-scratcher as to why the total is so high and has been bet up. Detroit's offense hasn't impressed me lately. The few lefty starters they have faced have mostly dominated them. Texas' offense has been useless on the road. Obviously Texas' bullpen is scary but at 8.5 I'll take a shot.
Reds -125
Brewers/Reds o8.5 -120
So I don't think Adleman looks nearly as sharp as he was in his opener and he could get in trouble against this hot Milwaukee offense. All that being said, he's a better option than Cravy who is a spot starter reliever. Cincinnati is also hitting well of late. The main reason I like the Reds is because Milwaukee's stinky bullpen will probably see more innings than Cincinnati's stinky bullpen.
Phillies/Marlins u7 -110
Phillies in a park that caters to pitchers and can't hit lefties. Facing a lefty and Philly's offense stinks lately. They might get shut out. Marlins are hitting pretty well of late but Velasquez has been a stud and the first time Miami sees his doesn't figure to go that well. Bullpens could blow this one open but there should be 0-3 runs scored total after 6 innings so the 7 has value.
DBacks/Braves u7 -115
Wind is BLASTING in here. Greinke's a stud. Braves can't hit. Blair is a good pitcher and teams will struggle with him the first time they see him. Diamondbacks not hitting. Game might be tied at 0 heading into the 8th. Under seems easy.
Ughhh Andrew Miller walked in the run that would push my Yankees/Red Sox over and leave the bases loaded with 1 out... except the ump was mad at Ortiz for arguing earlier and wrung him up on one of the most questionable calls I've seen all season. Ortiz and Farrell ejected. Hanley whiffs next up. Game over. That's about how my luck is running.
Back from vacation. Ready to get screwed by some more bullpens. Made a few tweaks while away so hopefully the success rate will go up.
My bets for 5/10:
Lean Brewers/Marlins u8.5 with the wind blasting in but I'm not in the mood for Milwaukee's bullpen to give up 9 runs in the 9th in a 0-0 game.
Lean Indians/Astros o8.5 just because the wind is blasting out and both teams have power hitters. That being said, Houston is about the only team Bauer has had success against and he's not HR prone. Devinski keeps pitching beyond his skill and that scared me also.
Big lean to Jays/Giants o8. I had my finger on the button to lock it in and got cold feet. Cain can't get anyone out but the Jays' offense is off of late. Giants hit lefties really well and should score a few runs on Happ. I really should make the bet but the Giants' offense hasn't been sharp lately either and I'll probably end up passing.
Nationals -1.5 +138
Going to keep fading Fulmer. I just don't think he's MLB ready at this stage and the Nats have some power. Ross looks like a quality starter and Detroit's been striking out a lot. Nats also have the bullpen edge.
Royals +160
Tanaka is an awesome pitcher and should do well but the Yankees' offense isn't hitting a ton lately and Medlen is capable of dominant outings. He's also capable of getting rocked when his command goes to hell but at +160 I think this game is close. KC has defensive and bullpen edges.
Pirates -131
Nicasio is solid. Reds relying on HRs lately and Nicasio doesn't give up many. Simon seems likely to get rocked. 3rd time in recent weeks the Pirates have seen him. Hit him pretty well last time. Reds don't have a bullpen at all. Good spot for the Pirates coming off a loss.
Diamondbacks -105
Rusin somehow dominated the DBacks earlier this year but I don't see it happening in the rematch. Arizona mashes lefties and I don't think Rusin has success at Coors here. De La Rosa seems like a much better bet to excel as he's done well in Coors before. DBacks have the better bullpen also.
Cardinals/Angels u8 -115
Leake hasn't been sharp lately but the Angels aren't hitting anyone. Santiago is a solid lefty and the Cardinals' offense hasn't been that great lately either. Both teams have good bullpens. I think this one is a 3-2 type of game.
Mets +102
Wood usually pitches well at home but the Mets hit lefties well and have the better offense here. deGrom is facing a Dodgers offense that isn't hitting. I'll take the road dog here. Also as a side note the Mets have been shut out every time I've taken them this year so prepare for that.
Vegas Insider has wind going out to center at 12-17 MPH. Where are you seeing it's blowing in?
Good catch on the roof though. Where did you find out it was closed? Weather report just has clouds and 90 degrees. No clue why they'd close it.
They usually close the roof when it warms up. Close to 80% of their games are played inside, it is not because of rain. Last 6 years, they have played 1 game where the gametime temp was 90+ and the roof is open. 15 over 85. Mid/upper 80's is almost always a sign of the roof being closed.
They usually close the roof when it warms up. Close to 80% of their games are played inside, it is not because of rain. Last 6 years, they have played 1 game where the gametime temp was 90+ and the roof is open. 15 over 85. Mid/upper 80's is almost always a sign of the roof being closed.
They usually close the roof when it warms up. Close to 80% of their games are played inside, it is not because of rain. Last 6 years, they have played 1 game where the gametime temp was 90+ and the roof is open. 15 over 85. Mid/upper 80's is almost always a sign of the roof being closed.
This is not a probability issue. When you bet your own $$ you want a definite open or closed. Try 713-259-8000.
This is not a probability issue. When you bet your own $$ you want a definite open or closed. Try 713-259-8000.
They are open about 8 games a year from May thru September. It isn't too hard to figure out when there is a chance it will be open. April is the only month you need to worry about(a little over 70% of the games are open). They talked about opening more a couple years ago during games when the weather got more "comfortable" for fans but they said it takes 13 minutes to open the roof and they can only do it between innings so they decided not to hold up games.
They are open about 8 games a year from May thru September. It isn't too hard to figure out when there is a chance it will be open. April is the only month you need to worry about(a little over 70% of the games are open). They talked about opening more a couple years ago during games when the weather got more "comfortable" for fans but they said it takes 13 minutes to open the roof and they can only do it between innings so they decided not to hold up games.
Why are you giving me an unnecessary synopsis of Minute Maid Park? Your data is irrelevant to a "right now" happening. I don't need to be flashed with historical data. This is simple with no surprises when wagering real $$ and not trying to impress.
a. Check on-line Houston Chronicle
b. Call the ballpark.
Why are you giving me an unnecessary synopsis of Minute Maid Park? Your data is irrelevant to a "right now" happening. I don't need to be flashed with historical data. This is simple with no surprises when wagering real $$ and not trying to impress.
a. Check on-line Houston Chronicle
b. Call the ballpark.
You do that, I will bet it 8 hours earlier because I and anyone smarter than a monkey already knows.
I really don't GAF what you bet. You action would be welcome in my circles. I simply consider you a data miner that finally has seen the light on the CLV perks. Took you a while.
Comments
Indians -110, 8.5 pk
Orioles -160, u8.5 -112
Cubs -150, u6 -115
Blue Jays -165, 9 pk
Marlins -130, 7.5 pk
Mets -285, 8 pk
Giants -140, 9 pk
Rays -160, u7 -115
Angels pk, o9.5 -115
White Sox -135, 8 pk
Astros -160, 8 pk
Royals -115, u7 -112
Cardinals -155, u7.5 -115
A's -130, u6.5 -115
Padres -150, 8 pk
My bets for 5/3:
Really should play the Reds at around +145 but going to pass. Moscot is good at getting out of jams and I think the Reds can take advantage of some of Samardzija's home run tendencies. At the end of the day San Francisco will probably score 10 runs off this stinky bullpen to kill my bet and I'm just not feeling like trusting that pen so it's a pass.
Missed the boat on Tampa Bay as it's been steamed. Probably still value there but unless it drops I'll probably lay off.
Some value on Nats/Royals u7.5 -105 but Young is so hit or miss that I'm going to leave it alone for now.
Orioles -116
As a general rule I don't like to play games where the line has been crushed against me but I'll play this one. Not entirely sure why Baltimore was bet down from -145 but there seems to be a good bit of value. Yankees aren't hitting and Tillman has shown in the past he's capable of doing well against them. Severino isn't anything special and gives up runs in every start. Orioles are the better offense right now and their bullpen is stronger and they are at home and they have the better starting pitcher... which all begs the question why are they only -116? I'm probably falling into a trap of some sort but I'm going to go with it anyway.
Pirates +154
Cubs/Pirates u7 -115
Arrieta is a stud. He always dominates. He'll probably dominate here. I get that. The thing is that the Cubs' offense is unlikely to support him today. Niese has pitched very well at home and has the potential to blank teams when he's on. Chicago is in the bottom half in OPS against lefties. Thinking southpaw Niese has some success. Both bullpens seem trustworthy. Just feels like a 3-2 final that could go either way. Arrieta can't win them all and this seems like a game that will be a pitcher's duel. Vegas is overinflating Arrieta lines a bit IMO.
Marlins -105
Diamondbacks/Marlins u8.5 +100
Both teams hit lefties really well. Both teams have stinky bullpens. All that being said, I still like the under because I think the starters can have some success. Arizona's offense seems off lately and they didn't do a ton of scoring earlier this year when in pitcher's parks. Miami is hitting really well but Corbin is solid and should put in good innings. Thinking Marlins win 4-3. Wasn't really planning on taking the under originally but the line seems inflated so I'll give it a go.
Mets -1.5 +100
Braves/Mets o7 -125
Went back and forth on the over here but I'll go with it. The Mets have a decent chance to cover it themselves. Wisler is never dominant and the Mets are mashing. If NYM doesn't score a bunch of runs on him they should get the job done against this stinky Atlanta bullpen. Harvey still isn't as sharp as he used to be and seems like he'll give up a couple runs each start to help our over. At only 7 I think that's worth a shot. Mets win 7-3.
Dodgers/Rays u7.5 +105
Dodgers not hitting anyone. Poor against lefties. Moore at home with a strong bullpen behind him should do very well. Rays hit lefties decently enough but Kazmir is a solid vet and he knows this stadium well. Neither bullpen scares me so hopefully won't get crushed later on.
Angels/Brewers o9 -110
Both offenses seem to be in peak form. Tropeano is solid but also has some control issues and I think that hurts him here. Guerra is a 31-year old career minor leaguer who has only been okay in AAA ball. Can't see him doing well here in a spot start, and even if he does do well the Brewers' bullpen seems like a great bet to get rocked late. Total should sail over.
Mariners/Athletics u7.5 -125
Line seems a run high. Oakland's offense is scary and Iwakuma has pitched well here in the past. Gray is a stud and he should be able to go 7 strong. Both bullpens trustworthy. I like it.
Padres -120
Skipped them last night because my line was so far off (they won, blah) but I'll play them today. Two poor bullpens could make things tricky late but Rockies don't figure to hit well in San Diego. Cashner is a good starter. Butler on the other hand is getting rocked in the minors so even a light-hitting Padres squad should be able to put up runs against him. Price is right.
43-47 -1.56u on the year.
Cubs -135, u8 -112
Giants -140, 9 pk
Braves @ Mets (not capping as rain will be an issue)
Angels -150, o9 -115
Nationals -140, u7 -130
Mariners -130, u7 -130
Padres pk, u7.5 -125
Indians -165, 7.5 pk
Orioles -165, o9 -112
Blue Jays -200, o8.5 -115
My bets for 5/4:
Took my sweet time handicapping and missed posting the start time of the Giants' game so no bet there as far as record keeping is concerned.
Going to call it a day and leave 4 or 5 games un-capped. Running out of time. Been a hectic day.
Giants -105
Going against the big line move (which I tend to avoid) worked yesterday with the Orioles so I'll try it again here. Giants' offense is looking very nice and they should get a few runs on Straily before the Cincy bullpen gives up a bunch more. Peavy hasn't been sharp this year but Cincinnati's offense is struggling. Giants have the better pen. -105 seems cheap.
Nats/Royals u7.5 -125
This one is right on the border of what I'd usually play but I just have a feeling we'll see runs hard to come by. Wind is blasting in. Stud Strasburg against a KC offense that isn't hitting much. Medlen is very good at times. Nats dependent on home runs a bit too much lately and with the wind blasting in and Medlen not allowing many long balls I think Kris will put in quality innings. Both teams have quality bullpens. Seems like a good bet.
Mariners/Athletics u7.5 -115
Already made it known how much I love Manaea and at home in this pitcher's park I expect him to do well. Felix is Felix. He's a stud. Both teams have good bullpens. Under city.
Orioles -131
Bet is mostly due to the fact that the Orioles will score a bunch of runs against Sabathia. Wilson is still a bit of a wild card but seems capable. I'll take the home team with the better pen and a good chance to rock the opposing starter at -131 any day.
Blue Jays -1.5 +110
Not a ton of value on this play but I have a good feeling about it. Sanchez is a stud and the Rangers' offense hasn't impressed me. Ultimately the reason I'm making this play is because I don't trust Lewis or the Rangers' awful bullpen against this mighty Toronto offense. Blue Jays haven't hit well of late but they've also faced a bunch of tough pitchers. Lewis' WHIP indicates that his ERA will adjust to the mean before too long and even if he does well this bet still has legs with Sanchez holding down the Rangers and Texas' bullpen giving up late runs.
43-51 -6.32u on the year.
My personal lines for 5/5:
Cardinals -220, u7 -120
Indians pk, o9.5 -120
Orioles -130, u7.5 -120
Blue Jays -160, o8 -112
Marlins -140, o8 -112
Brewers -135, 10 pk
Cubs -135, 7.5 pk
Red Sox -115, u9 -112
Astros -125, o10.5 -112
Mets -220, u7 -120
Giants -145, 8.5 pk
My bets for 5/5:
Makes some sense to take the Cards at -177 but I'm going to leave it alone. Wind is blasting in and with Cards not hitting I worry that Garcia's potential gem could be wasted. Under has been steamed already so can't play that as I hoped.
Lean Orioles -109 but pass for now.
Small bit of value on Rangers/Jays u8.5 +100 but I'm too worried about these bullpens and Holland finally regressing to mess with me.
Lean Boston -115. I think they can hit Johnson but not 100% confident on that.
Tigers/Indians o8 -115
Looks like it's against the forum rules to risk more than 1 unit on a play (which makes sense) but between you folks and me... I'm going double on this one. Happens every once in a while that I bet double. Not often. Anyway, these starting pitchers are awful. I still have no faith in Fulmer. He was rushed to the majors before he was ready. Bauer is not ready either and Detroit rocked him numerous times last season. 8 seems like a joke even with the wind coming in a bit. Not sure either starter makes it to the 3rd inning really.
Brewers -102
Brewers/Reds o9 +100
I'm playing the total for another 2 units in real life. Chase Anderson has been a HR-prone mess lately and that's not good news in a hitter's park against a Cincy team with some power... but I don't think his recent results are indicitive of his potential here. He induces a lot of groundouts and has pitched very well on the road against Cincy in the past. He'll give up some runs but should be sturdy enough. Alfredo Simon is a mess and Milwaukee's offense is heating up a bit. With the wind blowing up and Milwaukee's power numbers good lately I think they knock out Simon early. Both bullpens are awful and should give up late runs. Guessing Brewers win 8-4 or so. Total looks great.
Mariners/Astros o9 -105
Either I'm losing my mind or these overs are money today. This is another one I'd be willing to bet double on. I promise I'm not pressing after some days either. Miley puts a ton of guys on base and is HR prone... in a hitter's park against a team with a ton of power. I think he gets mashed. Devenski is not ready to start in the pros yet and he gives up HRs too while facing a Mariners' squad that is clubbing the long ball. These starters are going to get knocked out early. Love the value.
Mets -171
I rarely play big favorites but in San Diego where scores are usually low I don't feel comfortable expecting a team to win by multiple runs. Padres don't hit. deGrom should dominate them. Probably goes 8 innings. Might shut them out. NYM is hitting nicely but San Diego is a tough place to hit. Mets get a lot of their runs from the long ball and that won't be here tonight in this spacious park. All that being said, Rea is hittable and usually gives up a few runs in every start. That's all the Mets will need to get the win, although the Padres having a horrible bullpen should be the icing on the cake if needed.
Rockies/Giants o7.5 +100
Not in love with this total like the others but it's too low. SF is a tough place to hit but Matt Cain has been a mess and seems like he'll give up some runs in every start. Rusin somehow dominated in his first start of the year but the fact remains that he's still not very good. Facing a patient Giants offense that hits lefties well I think San Francisco can knock in a few and then get another few against Colorado's horrible bullpen in the later innings after running up Rusin' pitch count. Line seems short.
Anyway, if that ends up losing...
4-2 +1.27 on the day. All 3 totals hit. Got lucky on the Mariners/Astros one. Also appreciate the thoughts Old-Timer. Didn't deserve that over but it came in.
On the year...
47-53 -5.05u on the year.
Arghhh 3-2-1 +.27 last night and 46-53 -6.05 on the year. Thanks for pointing that out fellas. Didn't realize I got stuck with a 9 for record keeping purposes.
Cubs -115, 7.5 pk
Orioles -120, u7 -115
Red Sox pk, o8 -112
Blue Jays -130, u8 -112
Indians -150, u7.5 -112
Tigers -135, u7 -115
Reds -150, o9.5 -112
Marlins -145, u6.5 -120
DBacks -140, u6.5 -125
White Sox -145, 8.5 pk
Mariners -125, 8.5 pk
Cardinals -135, u7.5 -112
Rays -130, u7.5 -112
Giants -200, u7.5 -115
Mets -135, u7 -118
My bets for 5/6:
Some value on Twins/White Sox u9 +100 but not feeling it really. Not sure where Latos is at really but Nolasco is always hit or miss.
A's/Orioles u8 -115
Neither team hitting much lately. Rich Hill is a stud and after watching the Orioles look awful against a lesser lefty in CC a few days ago I think he'll do well. Jimenez generally pitches quality innings and Oakland's offense isn't as patient as year's past. I think both starters do well and both bullpens have been reliable thus far so under makes sense.
Red Sox/Yankees o7 -115
I really didn't want to play the over here with the wind blasting in but have to pull the trigger. The line seems far too low. This is the 2nd time recently that these teams have seen the opposing starters. I don't particularly trust either bullpen. Porcello pitching over his head and usually gives up some runs when he starts. Pineda prone to bad starts and got rocked at home against this hot-hitting Red Sox team last year. The wind scares me but I think over is the way to go with the line this low.
Rangers/Tigers u8.5 -115
Two stud pitchers here who should put in quality innings. Kind of a head-scratcher as to why the total is so high and has been bet up. Detroit's offense hasn't impressed me lately. The few lefty starters they have faced have mostly dominated them. Texas' offense has been useless on the road. Obviously Texas' bullpen is scary but at 8.5 I'll take a shot.
Reds -125
Brewers/Reds o8.5 -120
So I don't think Adleman looks nearly as sharp as he was in his opener and he could get in trouble against this hot Milwaukee offense. All that being said, he's a better option than Cravy who is a spot starter reliever. Cincinnati is also hitting well of late. The main reason I like the Reds is because Milwaukee's stinky bullpen will probably see more innings than Cincinnati's stinky bullpen.
Phillies/Marlins u7 -110
Phillies in a park that caters to pitchers and can't hit lefties. Facing a lefty and Philly's offense stinks lately. They might get shut out. Marlins are hitting pretty well of late but Velasquez has been a stud and the first time Miami sees his doesn't figure to go that well. Bullpens could blow this one open but there should be 0-3 runs scored total after 6 innings so the 7 has value.
DBacks/Braves u7 -115
Wind is BLASTING in here. Greinke's a stud. Braves can't hit. Blair is a good pitcher and teams will struggle with him the first time they see him. Diamondbacks not hitting. Game might be tied at 0 heading into the 8th. Under seems easy.
Hahahaha I'll see what I can do. Might go overboard on "filthy" trying to avoid "stud" though.
48-57 -8.65 on the year.
Blah.
My bets for 5/10:
Lean Brewers/Marlins u8.5 with the wind blasting in but I'm not in the mood for Milwaukee's bullpen to give up 9 runs in the 9th in a 0-0 game.
Lean Indians/Astros o8.5 just because the wind is blasting out and both teams have power hitters. That being said, Houston is about the only team Bauer has had success against and he's not HR prone. Devinski keeps pitching beyond his skill and that scared me also.
Big lean to Jays/Giants o8. I had my finger on the button to lock it in and got cold feet. Cain can't get anyone out but the Jays' offense is off of late. Giants hit lefties really well and should score a few runs on Happ. I really should make the bet but the Giants' offense hasn't been sharp lately either and I'll probably end up passing.
Nationals -1.5 +138
Going to keep fading Fulmer. I just don't think he's MLB ready at this stage and the Nats have some power. Ross looks like a quality starter and Detroit's been striking out a lot. Nats also have the bullpen edge.
Royals +160
Tanaka is an awesome pitcher and should do well but the Yankees' offense isn't hitting a ton lately and Medlen is capable of dominant outings. He's also capable of getting rocked when his command goes to hell but at +160 I think this game is close. KC has defensive and bullpen edges.
Pirates -131
Nicasio is solid. Reds relying on HRs lately and Nicasio doesn't give up many. Simon seems likely to get rocked. 3rd time in recent weeks the Pirates have seen him. Hit him pretty well last time. Reds don't have a bullpen at all. Good spot for the Pirates coming off a loss.
Diamondbacks -105
Rusin somehow dominated the DBacks earlier this year but I don't see it happening in the rematch. Arizona mashes lefties and I don't think Rusin has success at Coors here. De La Rosa seems like a much better bet to excel as he's done well in Coors before. DBacks have the better bullpen also.
Cardinals/Angels u8 -115
Leake hasn't been sharp lately but the Angels aren't hitting anyone. Santiago is a solid lefty and the Cardinals' offense hasn't been that great lately either. Both teams have good bullpens. I think this one is a 3-2 type of game.
Mets +102
Wood usually pitches well at home but the Mets hit lefties well and have the better offense here. deGrom is facing a Dodgers offense that isn't hitting. I'll take the road dog here. Also as a side note the Mets have been shut out every time I've taken them this year so prepare for that.
Really Jake? The wind is actually blowing in.............but that's a moot point. The retractable roof is CLOSED tonight.
Vegas Insider has wind going out to center at 12-17 MPH. Where are you seeing it's blowing in?
Good catch on the roof though. Where did you find out it was closed? Weather report just has clouds and 90 degrees. No clue why they'd close it.
They usually close the roof when it warms up. Close to 80% of their games are played inside, it is not because of rain. Last 6 years, they have played 1 game where the gametime temp was 90+ and the roof is open. 15 over 85. Mid/upper 80's is almost always a sign of the roof being closed.
Daily Baseball Data showing winds out to center at 14 MPH. Not sure what to believe. Ultimately a moot point as you mentioned.
Good info. Thanks!
This is not a probability issue. When you bet your own $$ you want a definite open or closed. Try 713-259-8000.
They are open about 8 games a year from May thru September. It isn't too hard to figure out when there is a chance it will be open. April is the only month you need to worry about(a little over 70% of the games are open). They talked about opening more a couple years ago during games when the weather got more "comfortable" for fans but they said it takes 13 minutes to open the roof and they can only do it between innings so they decided not to hold up games.
Why are you giving me an unnecessary synopsis of Minute Maid Park? Your data is irrelevant to a "right now" happening. I don't need to be flashed with historical data. This is simple with no surprises when wagering real $$ and not trying to impress.
a. Check on-line Houston Chronicle
b. Call the ballpark.
You do that, I will bet it 8 hours earlier because I and anyone smarter than a monkey already knows.
That was a fine response from someone that doesn't beat the market very often.
Sure, if you say so internet tough guy. Talking without knowing anything as usual. You have no idea what I bet.