Betting Talk

This finishes -150 or better

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited July 2014 in Sports Betting
just sayin'

6/7/14 5:00pm Horses Other Sports 104 Field wins Belmont -130* vs California Chrome wins Belmont
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Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2014
    I went the other direction here and played him @ +115 (action, so a scratch is a loser). I'll be shocked if he goes off north of even money on Saturday.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    TommyL wrote: »
    I went the other direction here and played him @ +115 (action, so a scratch is a loser). I'll be shocked if he goes off north of even money on Saturday.
    That is certainly the better play then laying -130 on the field when there is only about 4 logical horses that can beat him and their individual odd's will be much higher payouts.
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    There is a good argument to be made that it should be -150, but given that Chrome's ML on track is currently 3-5, I doubt it does.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    underwraps wrote: »
    when there is only about 4 logical horses that can beat him and their individual odd's will be much higher payouts.

    Commanding Curve, Ride On Curlin, Tonalist and......???
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Commanding Curve, Ride On Curlin, Tonalist and......???

    I'd assume Wicked Strong, if the extra rest allows him to get the mile and a half.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Commanding Curve, Ride On Curlin, Tonalist and......???

    I don't like Commanding curve and I certainly don't like Dallas Stewart as a trainer in this spot.
    I will post the 4 contenders on Friday as i gather more info
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Truth be told I only put half of it out there so far, in case it does drop, but that would require bettors to ignore both history and math. We can save the math until afterwards though.

    But the history? Holy shot fellas, did you guys get outfitted with blinders?

    Other non contenders with no chance:
    Summer Bird, whom is going to get smoked by Mine that Bird.

    Drosselmeyer.

    Ruler on Ice has zero fucking chance, Animal Kingdom is going to run away with it.

    Union Rags, okay, at least he had PT Odds under 10.

    Palaca Malice, whom ran poorly in Derby and skipped Preakness (wow, I wonder if there is any historical data on how horses run in Belmont if they ran in Derby and Preakness compared to skipping the Preakness (lightbulb?))

    Prob work Chrome into some exotics, maybe.

    GL all, push that price down for me so I can hit it again!!!
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited June 2014
    FWIW I'm on Tonalist.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    on the move boys:

    6/7/2014 6:50 PM Horses Other Sports 104 Field wins Belmont* -140 vs California Chrome wins Belmont
    California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2014
    Jafar wrote: »
    FWIW I'm on Tonalist.

    As am I. Think we will get 6-1 on him.

    The bombs who have won the race in the past all seem to be horses who run the entire race the same plodding pace and gobble up tired horses down the stretch, pay a ton and no one knows where they came from. Their numbers don't look great but they can run that pace forever where the rest of the group hits the wall the last 1/4 mile. If that happens this year, it will be Matuszak, who will go off less than the 30-1 ML(worth a flyer at 20-1).
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Here's the 4 horses that I think could beat Cali Chrome

    General Arod
    Medal Count
    Samraat
    Tonalist
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    If that happens this year, it will be Matuszak, who will go off less than the 30-1 ML(worth a flyer at 20-1).

    Currently 40-1 @ 5Dimes.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited June 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    As am I. Think we will get 6-1 on him.

    The bombs who have won the race in the past all seem to be horses who run the entire race the same plodding pace and gobble up tired horses down the stretch, pay a ton and no one knows where they came from. Their numbers don't look great but they can run that pace forever where the rest of the group hits the wall the last 1/4 mile. If that happens this year, it will be Matuszak, who will go off less than the 30-1 ML(worth a flyer at 20-1).

    I like the theory but not the conclusion. I would rather take a flyer on Matterhorn than Matuszak who is extremely slow. I'm hoping Tonalist stays at the current 8-1 but don't think it will go lower than 7.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Went to the Belmont in 1997 and 1998 when each year a horse had a chance to win the triple crown. (Silver Charm and Real Quiet) They of course got beat. Atmosphere was great. Went another time when it wasn't a triple crown chance and the atmosphere was shit.

    After 1998 Visa bought up a bunch of the "good" seats as they were the main sponsor. In 1997/1998 we sat at the eighth pole, 2nd level, front 2 rows. The cat's ass. Tried to get same tickets in 1999, another triple crown year, and they wouldn't sell them to us. Corporate sponsors got them. Nonsense.

    I'd love to go tomorrow but it just didn't work out. Should be great weather and an unbelievable atmosphere.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    I don't know. Bout the only thing I do know is running in all 3 events usually spells disaster and results in horses not even hitting the board (save last year). Although this field is weaker.

    Don't put a ton of stock in Beyer, but no way I'm backing a horse with an 89 as his best ever. One of them fuckers knocked out a 107, might have been in Derby.

    I want a rested, fast horse that has some pedigree.

    What did DaTara go off at few years back? 30-1? 40-1?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2014
    TommyL wrote: »
    Currently 40-1 @ 5Dimes.

    80-1 at BM. Matterhorn 55-1. I'll bite.
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    underwraps wrote: »
    That is certainly the better play then laying -130 on the field when there is only about 4 logical horses that can beat him and their individual odd's will be much higher payouts.

    Jesus. Thank you for posting this. Laying -130 (or worse, -150) on the Field here is just about the dumbest way to play the Belmont.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited June 2014
    Just did a tri box on Tonalist, Matterhorn, and Samraat. Prob just threw away $120 but huge value if the two favorites don't hit the board. Hopefully these horses running their 3rd race in 5 weeks are gassed down the stretch.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    babaoriley wrote: »
    Jesus. Thank you for posting this. Laying -130 (or worse, -150) on the Field here is just about the dumbest way to play the Belmont.

    If you have an opinion and do not act on it, you really don't have an opinion.

    Or...words minus action are meaningless.

    So which it is? Just another loud mouthed fortune teller lacking the fortitude to stake his money to his 'opinion', or someone willing to take action?
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    And now for the kinda of math part. When does a slump stopped be considered a slump and just reality?

    The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown, which has a historical success rate of 33 percent. The current slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 – nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    homerplayer wrote: »
    If you have an opinion and do not act on it, you really don't have an opinion.

    Or...words minus action are meaningless.

    So which it is? Just another loud mouthed fortune teller lacking the fortitude to stake his money to his 'opinion', or someone willing to take action?

    I'm not claiming I know the winner but I am most definitely echoing underwraps' comment that this is a bad way to fade Chrome. Unless you just think this is a complete crapshoot, in which case you probably shouldn't be betting it at all. I truthfully didn't mean for that to sound as dickish as it may have sounded.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2014
    Darin Zoccali ‏@atTheTrack7 1h
    By the way, Tonalist being 15-1 is the definition of dead on the board. That is shockingly high.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Victor Espinoza's win record is below the Mendoza line. I couldn't trust this guy @ odds-on.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2014
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    Darin Zoccali ‏@atTheTrack7 1h
    By the way, Tonalist being 15-1 is the definition of dead on the board. That is shockingly high.

    Maybe the rumors of a foot issue are true.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Jafar wrote: »
    FWIW I'm on Tonalist.

    Nice call sir, good day for me to follow you.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Boom!
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Yeah thanks to those who suggested tonalist.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Nice job Jafar and SY.
    CChrome owner Steven Colborn hits the lotto with a 10k investment with his horse and rants on national tv today and also blasted CDowns after the Derby. This system has been around for over a century and he has the nerve to call some owners/trainers cowards. This man was on a soapbox speaking like he had the tenure of the late Woody Stephens. What a fuken farmer.

    Oh, Bob Costas. I loved that data mining about the NY teams etc. GMAFB
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2014
    Man was I rooting for that # 1 medal count to finish second. Oh well at least Tonalist won, so not a bad day.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2014
    Jafar and SY anyone else who leaned Totalist great call, had a nice entertainment bet on our boy
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