Bill the Cop
Bill the Cop · Senior Member
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(Quote) Yes!
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Lacking any other issues, probably nothing would happen to you. However, police officers have some discretion in these situations as it could be construed as an "obscene gesture" under certain city ordinances. It really is a slippery slo…
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I'm a retired Deputy Chief of Police (25 years on the job). So ask away, I'll answer if I can.
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I believe that to be true, however I don't have those data in my database. Perhaps someone else does. As you said, it would be interesting to know.
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This will be my last post on this subject as I just don't have the time or inclination for protracted verbal battles. As an example of the point I was trying to make, Bookmaker (who doesn't mind booking any 6 point teasers, but charges -120 for them…
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(Quote) I wasn't completely happy with my attempt to explain this the way I wanted to. So I'll try again. Let's assume a line is +2.5EV at one book and they don't mind booking BS teasers, another book doesn't particularly like booking BS teaser…
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I don't know, maybe because the "3" isn't the quintessential teaser candidate and they don't worry about anything other than the well known BS types? Or, maybe they think it would be foolish to tease a +3? All I know is when I see a +3 w…
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Yes of course some are taking the BS teasers +1.5 to +2.5 down and the -7.5 to -8.5 up, but I've seen quite a few of those +3-135 lines. It seems to me it would be easier for them to get off a +2.5 game by going up a half pt. to a juiced +3 than to…
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My formula for NFLX is quite simple. I tease ALL +1 to +3 dogs up 6 points, 17 year Sample size 623, 460-161-2 for 74.1% (last 5 years 164-58 for 73.9%). If they won't take teasers, parlay them in RR 2 teamers (I actually do both, they're not mut…
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"For example...Avg snowy days in Moscow for Dec is 17 from Wikipedia..so 54% days have snow and the price is only -125? Seems like good value to take Moscow!!" Why? If it does snow on 17 days you win $1700, if it doesn't on 14 days you l…
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My take on parlays. In order to make sure we're comparing apples to apples I'll limit the discussion to 2 team parlays paying 13/5 (or +260) and the straight bets at -110. Let's make some basic assumptions: -Let's assume, as a result of database …
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(Quote) Here ya go: All dogs teased +2.5 to +9 (6.5 pt. teaser), 184-75-2 for 71% Home dogs teased +2.5 to +9, 73-31-1 for 70.2% All dogs teased +2.5 to +10 (7.5 pt. teaser), 186-61-14 for 75.3% Home dogs teased +2.5 to +10, 74-25-6 for 74.7% Th…
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Make that BE on the 6 pointer at -110 72.4% (I'm used to the even money 6 pointers which are 70.7% BE)
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Here's some data that may help you: +3 teased 6 pts to +9 at -110 (BE 70.7%) All dogs, 603-242-6 for 71.4%, just home dogs, 250-95-4 for 72.5% +3 teased 7pts to +10 at -130 (BE 75.2%) All dogs, 609-213-29 for 74.1%, just home dogs, 254-84-11 for …
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(Quote) 113 is close, the rest are good to go. BTW, you know what the criteria is (as do others who are making this play). Maybe the less said going forward the better, so no need to post weekly candidates. At the end of the year I'll post how t…
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(Quote) 357, 389, and 387 makes the cut this week. I don't need to tell you that last week the straight bets on D/Os kicked some serious ass! Out of the 10 plays FOUR D/O came in and only one F/U (the other 5, as you know, lost the vig on one side…
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(Quote) Maybe this is what you're looking for: RD+9 teased to +17.5, 58-28 for 67.4% Compare this to one of my favorites, HF-9 teased down to -2.5, 69-17 for 80.2%
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(Quote) The problem is the line of 11 sample size of 43 is pretty small to make an intelligent analysis in this case. But here it is anyway. RD+11 teased 6.5 to +17.5 has went 28-15 for 65.1%. So that's no good. Let's look at teasing that HF-1…
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More like 50%. I consider it "line to total ratio" or LTR. So a game with a line of 32 and a total of 55 would have a LTR of 1.71 (We're looking for 2 or better so 1.71 is good) Aleleck, watch 136, 141, 155, and 165 (if it tightens up, …
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(Quote) No, he's right. It's a whole different play (straight bets D and O 1h). 136, 141, 155,165,181,183,185,191,198, and 209
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(Quote) I'm assuming you are talking about college and the book is paying +260 on parlays and you know the BE is 27.8% Let's say you only bet games with an LTR of from 1 to 2 (SS 555). For full games the F/O and D/U would both cover right at 32.6…
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I just checked Pinny, 5 of the games have moved down on totals and 1 has moved up a half a point since 8/21/12 when I posted this.
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(Quote) Okay, let's look at the results of the last 2 weeks. Week 1 the median for totals was 35, the average points scored was 33.3, the Overs went 7-7-2 Week 2 the median for totals was 38, the average points scored was 44.7, the Overs went 11-…
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Look, I have no interest in starting an argument with you or anyone else. I respect your opinion, and indeed you may be right, but my bets simply reflect the current line compared to the historical lines. I just can't see an increase of 13% in the…
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Back with you Chuck. Full game data, SS 555, LTR 2-1 (ie line 25 total 50) F/O covers 32.6 for +EV of 17.3% , about the same for the D/U. Again, make sure your getting at least +260, if not let me know what the payout is and I'll recalculate for y…
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(Quote) I've done a great deal of work on correlated parlays. If your guy would take a F/O parlay with something less than a 2 to 1 LTR (line 25 total 50) you will cash right at 35% of the time. That's about a +EV of 26%. D/U is about the same. …
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(Quote) The preseason data I cited covers years 1998-2011 (not just pre 2005). We have 2 weeks of data so far, a SS of 33. Favs ATS 13-19-1 for 40.6% (of course, Dogs 19-13-1 for 59.4%) Favs teased 6 points 21-12 for 63.6%, Dogs teased 6 points 25…