The only thing I am really interested in with this election is to see how Nate Silver's forecast does. Rs were shocked when he was dead on with Obama and pissed as hell about it so they celebrated when he was wrong on Trump. But was that just due to lack of voter turnout and a fluke? I am betting so.
Silver had Trump with a 28.6% of winning, which was better than the market as we went into election day. And what does "we are not looking for a little value bet, we are all in" even supposed to mean? What's the point of trying to win in the betting market if you're not looking for value?
He was. Might have been a live line after votes were coming in. I did not bother tuning in until later and the mood was somber because they knew it was going Trump's way.
That was wild. It was Trump minus 375 at one point, down to minus 275 when I went to bed. And now I wake up to Biden minus 150. Who needs sports?
I don't know how they could cheat even if they wanted to. They would need hundreds of nefarious poll counters across the country somehow only counting the Biden votes? Enlighten me.
Yes his commitment is fine, but his commitment is saying that my bankroll will soon completely disappear, which is an unpleasant prospect. And you know that not only is he committed, but, being a Trump supporter, he always tells the truth. So, I am screwed. I guess I already knew I was screwed, given the fact that he also exposed the fact that my bet only had a 9% chance of winning from the getgo...
What about the British bastard that lost $5 million? He briefly thought he won. And there was no way there was enough liquidity in the market for him to cash out? "Sell, Mortimer, Sell!!! To who???"
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The only thing I am really interested in with this election is to see how Nate Silver's forecast does. Rs were shocked when he was dead on with Obama and pissed as hell about it so they celebrated when he was wrong on Trump. But was that just due to lack of voter turnout and a fluke? I am betting so.
If you were following Nate Silver 4 years ago, you would have been betting on Trump (at least as Election Day approached).
Trump was down to -110 by election day. Silver was not forecasting an even race. He had Clinton as a heavy favorite. It was way off.
We are not looking for a little value bet. We are all in.
Where was Trump down to "-110 by election day" in 2016? It was more like +400.
or
https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20201102-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-donald-trump-only-had-a-20pp-chance-of-winning-in-2016-he-has-a-35pp-chance-in-2020
Silver had Trump with a 28.6% of winning, which was better than the market as we went into election day. And what does "we are not looking for a little value bet, we are all in" even supposed to mean? What's the point of trying to win in the betting market if you're not looking for value?
That means we are betting the whole bankroll and then some because it is a drop-dead cinch. Now that is value!!!
I remember -110 distinctly but maybe that was day of.
Im with Tommy on this . Donald was no where near -110 day of election at any book I know of.
TomL....who ya got in TCC for the Houston ?!
Penciled in Scott, but it’s very unlikely to matter as I’m mostly playing out the string.
https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures
ya same...maybe next season!
He was. Might have been a live line after votes were coming in. I did not bother tuning in until later and the mood was somber because they knew it was going Trump's way.
Why would anybody be "all-in" on betting on any of this? You think you have some sort of edge??
You can hit singles or you can swing for the seats. If you want to drive in runs, you have to swing from the heels.
Dems hinting they are losing Pennsylvania and have to win Arizona. Lancer may pull this one out and rook and Obi on the ropes.
yup
But hold on Biden may take Arizona. If they will vote for a lesbian, Biden may pull this out.
^^^^ MURICA
This feels like Bush-Gore. Let the cheating begin.
That was wild. It was Trump minus 375 at one point, down to minus 275 when I went to bed. And now I wake up to Biden minus 150. Who needs sports?
I don't know how they could cheat even if they wanted to. They would need hundreds of nefarious poll counters across the country somehow only counting the Biden votes? Enlighten me.
Holy crap. Biden is favorite now? This is hilarious. Nobody has a clue. The betting market has been a perfect reverse barometer the entire time.
I hope it goes to the courts and they don't count a single vote. That would be a perfect ending.
9/11 was not caused by Americans dude, get real on that.
trump will win this election btw.
"Minneapolis (worst financial damage in U.S. history!!)"
WORDS MATTER, dude.
You know what I meant
um no. see. this is the problem with humans in general.
if you have a point to make. make it and dont ASSUME anything.
it is not other peoples responsibility to dissect your commentary on important issues.
either talk with facts and clear messaging. or sit down.
I like Lancer's commitment. He's got the will to win.
Yes his commitment is fine, but his commitment is saying that my bankroll will soon completely disappear, which is an unpleasant prospect. And you know that not only is he committed, but, being a Trump supporter, he always tells the truth. So, I am screwed. I guess I already knew I was screwed, given the fact that he also exposed the fact that my bet only had a 9% chance of winning from the getgo...
What about the British bastard that lost $5 million? He briefly thought he won. And there was no way there was enough liquidity in the market for him to cash out? "Sell, Mortimer, Sell!!! To who???"
We've got to let this play out.
GG
bye bye