Tommy, I didn't want to clutter your thread any more than it has been but I wanted to say thanks for taking the time to post. I always tail everything and know posting is a thankless endeavor. It looks like the majority of the futures wagers this tourney won't pan out but that's the way it goes sometimes. Here's to better luck in the knockout rounds as I'm sure there will still be some good betting opportunities.
Tommy-So close to putting a wager on pannama +1550. Its more a play against england, as I am not impressed with their team and first match. Suckers bet or serious value?
Update heading into the last wave of group stage games...
Updated YTD Result: -8.385 units (ROI: -8.5%)
Pending plays:
Uruguay to win Group A (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Iran advances from Group B (+700) .5 units to win 3.5 units
Spain wins group B (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Morocco last in Group B (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590) 2.36 units to win .4 units
Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Germany wins Group F (-235) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450) 2.25 units to win .5 units
South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
South Korea last in Group F (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Belgium wins Group G (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Colombia wins Group H (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Japan advances from Group H (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
Russia/Uruguay under 2 (+109) 2 units to win 2.18 units
Peru -.5 Australia (+110) 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Germany -1.5 South Korea (-138)** 2.76 units to win 2 units
Belgium/England under 2.5 (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Belgium/England to draw (+240) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600) .4 units to win 6.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000) .15 units to win 6 units
Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
Best Asian Team - Iran (+300) 1 unit to win 3 units
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Nigeria under .5 goals (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Paulo Dybala no goals scored (-285) 1.425 units to win .5 units
Odion Ighalo no goals scored (-535) 1.605 units to win .3 units
Simy Nwankwo no goals scored (-850) 1.7 units to win .2 units
Alex Iwobi no goals scored (-885) 1.77 units to win .2 units
Sigurdarson Bjorn no goals scored (-515) 2.06 units to win .4 units
Jon Dadi Bodvarsson no goals scored (-675) 2.025 units to win .3 units
Rurik Gislason no goals scored (-1110) 2.22 units to win .2 units
Kari Arnason no goals scored (-2250) 2.25 units to win .1 unit
Mexico doesn't advance from Group (+435) .5 units to win 2.175 units
Panama +.5 Tunisia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
France E Argentina (-153) 1.53 units to win 1 unit
France HT/France FT (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 units
1st half France 2 Argentina 0 (+1400) .3 units to win 4.2 units
Portugal scores 1st goal/no goals is a loss (+128) 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Spain HT/Spain FT (+155) 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Switzerland advances (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Switzerland reaches semifinal (+400) 1 unit to win 4 units
Colombia advances (+165) 1 unit to win 1.65
Best South American team - Brazil (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Tommy can you please help me with this question,I know there are a zillion factors but in general can you tell me what home field does to the money line in soccer generally, example NBA home game is 3 points to the line
so
3way
team A is +140
team B is +190
draw is +235
on a neutral field now what the lines be in GENERAL at team A's home field, I am asking mainly MLS but anythign will help thank you
Im traveling and cant get too detailed, but regardless, I dont cap MLS and only follow it casually, so I cant help much. In general though, Id assume that HFA would vary widely in soccer based on the type of game, conditions, etc. (Bolivia playing a World Cup qualifier at 8k feet is a lot different than the Union hosting DC United in a US Open Cup game).
rough as my grammar and spelling throw out a wild educated guess
Toronto neutral field is +150
so at home they would be -150ish?????
thanks Tommy for the help, I tried to express super basic in general I am sure there are so many factors that even someone who does soccer like you knows them all but in general am I close????
thanks again!
what do you think of this?
I took last 10 games for each MLS team averaged the home and away line
home line avg all teams 1.95
Away line avg all teams 4.29
that seems hella extreme but does that make sense to you literally -200 difference between home and away??
One club friendly for today that goes in an hour...
Rennes +1 Borussia Dortmund (-111) 1.665 units to win 1.5 units
Don't play more than 1-2 club games a year, but this is a nice spot...Rennes starts their season next week, while Dortmund still has three weeks to prepare. Dortmund is bringing their World Cup guys back into the fold so they have the bigger names on paper, but I expect Rennes to be sharper in their final tune-up.
One club friendly for today that goes in an hour...
Rennes +1 Borussia Dortmund (-111) 1.665 units to win 1.5 units
Don't play more than 1-2 club games a year, but this is a nice spot...Rennes starts their season next week, while Dortmund still has three weeks to prepare. Dortmund is bringing their World Cup guys back into the fold so they have the bigger names on paper, but I expect Rennes to be sharper in their final tune-up.
91st minute penalty to cash this bet. Nice work Tommy
Tommy, just curious, but did you start a thread for 2019 plays? using the search function and could not find anything. if not, any thoughts on tonight's match for the US?
Tommy, just curious, but did you start a thread for 2019 plays? using the search function and could not find anything. if not, any thoughts on tonight's match for the US?
hope all is well
I haven't played anything at all this year, and have no thoughts on tonight. In fact, I didn't even watch or record the game on Thursday. Very unusual for me, but life has been crazy (work/traveling, coaching soccer, umpiring, getting ready to head down to Augusta in two weeks, and the NCAA tourney).
Things should settle down in the next couple of months and I'll get back into it, but just been taking a break from the grind with everything else happening. Everything going great, but just not enough hours in a day. Which reminds me that I do need to get in and update my final records from 2018 when I have some time. But a very busy calendar on the soccer front this spring/summer, so I'll certainly be back at some point soon.
You didn't miss a ton on Thursday. Ecuador basically bunkered, US had pretty solid possession with very few chances and one fluke goal. Oh, and Weston McKennie turned his ankle pretty badly coming down from going up for a header and is out for a while.
Comments
Updated YTD Result: -8.385 units (ROI: -8.5%)
Pending plays:
Uruguay to win Group A (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Iran advances from Group B (+700) .5 units to win 3.5 units
Spain wins group B (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Morocco last in Group B (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590) 2.36 units to win .4 units
Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Germany wins Group F (-235) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450) 2.25 units to win .5 units
South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
South Korea last in Group F (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Belgium wins Group G (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Colombia wins Group H (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Japan advances from Group H (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
Russia/Uruguay under 2 (+109) 2 units to win 2.18 units
Peru -.5 Australia (+110) 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Germany -1.5 South Korea (-138)** 2.76 units to win 2 units
Belgium/England under 2.5 (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Belgium/England to draw (+240) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600) .4 units to win 6.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000) .15 units to win 6 units
Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
Best Asian Team - Iran (+300) 1 unit to win 3 units
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Nigeria under .5 goals (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Paulo Dybala no goals scored (-285) 1.425 units to win .5 units
Odion Ighalo no goals scored (-535) 1.605 units to win .3 units
Simy Nwankwo no goals scored (-850) 1.7 units to win .2 units
Alex Iwobi no goals scored (-885) 1.77 units to win .2 units
Sigurdarson Bjorn no goals scored (-515) 2.06 units to win .4 units
Jon Dadi Bodvarsson no goals scored (-675) 2.025 units to win .3 units
Rurik Gislason no goals scored (-1110) 2.22 units to win .2 units
Kari Arnason no goals scored (-2250) 2.25 units to win .1 unit
Panama +.5 Tunisia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
1st half - Germany 2 South Korea 0 (+445) .5 units to win 2.225 units
Pending plays:
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
France HT/France FT (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 units
1st half France 2 Argentina 0 (+1400) .3 units to win 4.2 units
Portugal scores 1st goal/no goals is a loss (+128) 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Spain HT/Spain FT (+155) 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Switzerland advances (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Switzerland reaches semifinal (+400) 1 unit to win 4 units
Colombia advances (+165) 1 unit to win 1.65
Best South American team - Brazil (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
so
3way
team A is +140
team B is +190
draw is +235
on a neutral field now what the lines be in GENERAL at team A's home field, I am asking mainly MLS but anythign will help thank you
Toronto neutral field is +150
so at home they would be -150ish?????
thanks Tommy for the help, I tried to express super basic in general I am sure there are so many factors that even someone who does soccer like you knows them all but in general am I close????
thanks again!
I took last 10 games for each MLS team averaged the home and away line
home line avg all teams 1.95
Away line avg all teams 4.29
that seems hella extreme but does that make sense to you literally -200 difference between home and away??
One club friendly for today that goes in an hour...
Rennes +1 Borussia Dortmund (-111) 1.665 units to win 1.5 units
Don't play more than 1-2 club games a year, but this is a nice spot...Rennes starts their season next week, while Dortmund still has three weeks to prepare. Dortmund is bringing their World Cup guys back into the fold so they have the bigger names on paper, but I expect Rennes to be sharper in their final tune-up.
91st minute penalty to cash this bet. Nice work Tommy
Denmark/Slovakia over 4.5 (-129) 1.29 units to win 1 unit
hope all is well
I haven't played anything at all this year, and have no thoughts on tonight. In fact, I didn't even watch or record the game on Thursday. Very unusual for me, but life has been crazy (work/traveling, coaching soccer, umpiring, getting ready to head down to Augusta in two weeks, and the NCAA tourney).
Things should settle down in the next couple of months and I'll get back into it, but just been taking a break from the grind with everything else happening. Everything going great, but just not enough hours in a day. Which reminds me that I do need to get in and update my final records from 2018 when I have some time. But a very busy calendar on the soccer front this spring/summer, so I'll certainly be back at some point soon.
Thanks.
You didn't miss a ton on Thursday. Ecuador basically bunkered, US had pretty solid possession with very few chances and one fluke goal. Oh, and Weston McKennie turned his ankle pretty badly coming down from going up for a header and is out for a while.