I had it at 165.5 and I would have taken it at 162 if I would have seen it but I was out late last night and did not get to it this AM
I bet Sky +4.5, Mystics +1.5 and Dream U167.5 ( the dream played them a few days ago and it was 164 and nothing sig changed)
I think I am doing something wrong, there is no way I get over 164 on that game and it closed at 171 and they are gonna score 200. I am going to keep posting but when you are following and betting someone you got to see these things, dont pay attention to win losses pay attention to when the line is way off, its not bad luck when the line is off by 2 or 3 points on quite a few games!. MY recommendation is to watch nmy picks for awhile until you start seeing me getting the good side of the line BEFORE you start betting them again!
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<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
Team
My Line
Bet at
Closing line
Line moved good or bad
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<tbody>
Date
Team
My Line
Bet at
Closing line
Line moved good or bad
7/10
Aces
2
5
3.5
good
7/10
Sky
172.5
175.5
175
good
7/11
Dream
159.5
164
164.5
bad
7/11
Fever
160.5
157
155.5
bad
7/13
Fever
5.5
8
10
bad
7/13
Aces
164.5
161.5
163.5
good
7/14
Storm
-5.5
-4.5
-4.5
neither
7/15
Sky
2
4.5
4.5
neither
7/15
Mystics
-2
1.5
-2.5
great
7/15
Dream
163
167.5
166
good
</tbody>
this information right here is how you should track the people you follow forget the wins and losses, this tells you who you are dealing with and if they have a clue, whenever you think about tailing start a spreadhseet like this and do it just like this, do about 10 20 plays before you even consider paying for service or a bet. if you have to pay to find out ask to pay for 10 games to see if you like it, most guys will do it so they can get some money they dont care how much really, they work on bulk and change screennames as faster than I post on here! if they wont sell you 10 games only ask if they offer refunds and if they do pay and if there sheet looks like shit after 10 plays get a refund and move on. a guy with 3 bad 5 good and 2 neither (which is bad really) is not going to make you money!
I think I am doing something wrong, there is no way I get over 164 on that game and it closed at 171 and they are gonna score 200. I am going to keep posting but when you are following and betting someone you got to see these things, dont pay attention to win losses pay attention to when the line is way off, its not bad luck when the line is off by 2 or 3 points on quite a few games!. MY recommendation is to watch nmy picks for awhile until you start seeing me getting the good side of the line BEFORE you start betting them again!
really that is interesting thanks for that info because I could not get 171 out of that game no matter how I tried, that is a true indication that I have zero clue about this game. I will keep investigating because being wrong is wrong!
I just started doing this in the past week so I have no idea about the prior game. I don't place wagers that far off my number in such a weak market.
wow really that is far off your number that is insane my avg
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<colgroup><col style="width: 85px"><col width="85"><col width="90"></colgroup><tbody>
Total Av Diff
2.36
Sides Av Diff
2.03
</tbody>
that is overall since the season started that far off 3 off to me is a good number ! shoot I am nearly 2.5 off on average on my sides, wow your model is awesome, very cool dude, much respect!
7-19
Liberty +9
Mystics U177
sorry wont be around at 9am to catch morning lines,
I am way off on both of those games and I think if 175.5 I would still go Under and +7 would still take the Liberty. I think these 2 are really good value bets! first time today got some good line movement and the numbers look way sharper today compared to a few days ago. I was getting nervous, LOL!
looking good so far, I hope it keeps rolling! Line value is back these super high weird totals are a little strange. I will update if I figure anything out about it!
WNBA total
before 7-10 this season total line avg 162.9 after 7-10 169.7
that is a big move not sure why? any ideas anyone???
169 scored avg after 7-10
163 scored avg before 7-10
7-25
Sky +5
Too many big name injuries for Mercury, my adjustments put it at -5.5 with Griner playing but if she is limited and Taurasi out spells trouble for Mercury
I dont see Phoenix taking a big chance with GRiner going into a break, they will limit her or not play her at all and let her use the week to get healthy!
darn it I should have got the over at 169.5, too greedy wanted 169 darn it, well good luck I dont have the capability to do the all star game so back when the games are back, cjheck out my cfl it is very interesting line moves are looking good and it is winning
I thought I would try and come up with some magic formula for the all star game
so I have player rankings I use for injuries and I added up both teams and to me it looks like 5.5 Team Delle
so in my very educated (LOL) projection is the Delle team -5.5 so I am going to bet Delle -2.5
- - - Updated - - -
of course my over under is stupid low so nothing going for me on totals
I wonder if that system I used for the all star game is actually anything or just coincidence up to this point, I mean it is not closed yet! Might close at +3 LOL
Comments
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="58"></colgroup><tbody>
7/15
Chic
Sky
2
7/15
New
Liberty
166.5
7/15
Wash
Mystics
-2
7/15
Atla
Dream
163
7/15
Phoe
Mercury
-8.5
7/15
Indi
Fever
162.5
7/15
Los
Sparks
-5.5
7/15
Las
Aces
160.5
7/15
Conn
Sun
165.5
7/15
Minn
Lynx
-5
</tbody>
I had it at 165.5 and I would have taken it at 162 if I would have seen it but I was out late last night and did not get to it this AM
I bet Sky +4.5, Mystics +1.5 and Dream U167.5 ( the dream played them a few days ago and it was 164 and nothing sig changed)
Liberty U169.5
Sun U168.5
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
Team
My Line
Bet at
Closing line
Line moved good or bad
7/10
Aces
2
5
3.5
good
7/10
Sky
172.5
175.5
175
good
7/11
Dream
159.5
164
164.5
bad
7/11
Fever
160.5
157
155.5
bad
7/13
Fever
5.5
8
10
bad
7/13
Aces
164.5
161.5
163.5
good
7/14
Storm
-5.5
-4.5
-4.5
neither
7/15
Sky
2
4.5
4.5
neither
7/15
Mystics
-2
1.5
-2.5
great
7/15
Dream
163
167.5
166
good
</tbody>
this information right here is how you should track the people you follow forget the wins and losses, this tells you who you are dealing with and if they have a clue, whenever you think about tailing start a spreadhseet like this and do it just like this, do about 10 20 plays before you even consider paying for service or a bet. if you have to pay to find out ask to pay for 10 games to see if you like it, most guys will do it so they can get some money they dont care how much really, they work on bulk and change screennames as faster than I post on here! if they wont sell you 10 games only ask if they offer refunds and if they do pay and if there sheet looks like shit after 10 plays get a refund and move on. a guy with 3 bad 5 good and 2 neither (which is bad really) is not going to make you money!
My number was 172.4
- - - Updated - - -
why did you not bet it if you had 172 it opened and sat around 167ish for awhile?
- - - Updated - - -
I mean they played each other a week ago and it was 164, so how now 172? to me that does not make sense
- - - Updated - - -
and 169 to 172 is not a play for you? I play on totals when its 2.5 or more off my model
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 85px"><col width="85"><col width="90"></colgroup><tbody>
Total Av Diff
2.36
Sides Av Diff
2.03
</tbody>
that is overall since the season started that far off 3 off to me is a good number ! shoot I am nearly 2.5 off on average on my sides, wow your model is awesome, very cool dude, much respect!
- - - Updated - - -
do you think a game a week ago assuming all else is equal which it basically was, a line can change 8 points?
Fever O155
Liberty +9
Mystics U177
sorry wont be around at 9am to catch morning lines,
I am way off on both of those games and I think if 175.5 I would still go Under and +7 would still take the Liberty. I think these 2 are really good value bets! first time today got some good line movement and the numbers look way sharper today compared to a few days ago. I was getting nervous, LOL!
7-19
Aces U172
7-20
Sky U179.5
Storm +3
before 7-10 this season total line avg 162.9 after 7-10 169.7
that is a big move not sure why? any ideas anyone???
169 scored avg after 7-10
163 scored avg before 7-10
Liberty O155
Dream O155.5
Sky +5
Too many big name injuries for Mercury, my adjustments put it at -5.5 with Griner playing but if she is limited and Taurasi out spells trouble for Mercury
so I have player rankings I use for injuries and I added up both teams and to me it looks like 5.5 Team Delle
so in my very educated (LOL) projection is the Delle team -5.5 so I am going to bet Delle -2.5
- - - Updated - - -
of course my over under is stupid low so nothing going for me on totals
Dream O163