I will post all my WNBA picks the morning of the games, I will no longer be doing overnights, I got pissed at BOL for sending me BTC 4 days later and the price of BTC had dropped more than my profit, some BS, how can it take 4 days to do a BTC withdraw, anyway I asked them to expedite and they laughed at me so I threatened to leave and they laughed again and showed me the door, I still have the account but will only place bets there now if they line is sweet and their limits are high enough no more openers with them for me!
Playing openers was dumb anyway honestly
A waste of time profit too small
B the books dont pay enough to help them set their lines for 250 bucks
C if you are wrong with openers you can be more wrong on an opener over a seasoned line.
You may make a gambler yet. Now if only you can figure out that CLV thing.
that CLV thing is still kicking my ass but did you see my MLB numbers I am killing it, my model is how does Marisa Tomei put it balls on perfect accurate. Iam killing it since I made the changes on MLB, I am averaging 1.88% CLV. I think the thing is now to get it super consistent. I actually think this is like playing days, you need confidence LOL, its crazy.
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and sitting at 2.9% clv on the Ball-less Ball
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and this is my NBA model I am using with NBA, and it is going to be even better on the NBA I hope! Now MY SDQL leaves something to be desired LMAO!
Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.
Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.
He has never posted here as far as I know. I believe he has a free gambling book for download on Amazon if he is the one I remember doing it. You might want to check it out considering your novice status. You might find it educational.
Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.
Pokerjoe is the real deal. Longtime forum vet and I believe he resides here.
looks like he has not posted in a long time! it takes him about a month to answer on Twitter but is a very nice guy and super knowledgable. I hope I can keep my big mouth quiet long enough to get some good info from him. He has been very helpful with hoops!
He has never posted here as far as I know. I believe he has a free gambling book for download on Amazon if he is the one I remember doing it. You might want to check it out considering your novice status. You might find it educational.
his book sharper is really good especially for noobs like me!, I really enjoyed it and learned a lot of evenhow to start to think another way about games and betting. A must read for noobs for sure and really anyone betting period. I also 100% recommend for anyone tailing people to read black cat in a coal cellar, it helps a ton to try and get the difference between a real capper and a guy who has good marketing.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 48px"><col width="113"><col width="55"><col width="43"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="68"><col width="60"><col width="75"><col width="61"><col width="70"><col width="65"><col width="71"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
Team
My Line
Close
Bet At
Bet Amt
Result
C3 Lines
Notes
Potential
Est CLV%
Odds
Actual CLV
6/12
Nationals
131
156
0.64
L
4.23%
6/12
Cubs
-111
109
0.92
L
4.76%
6/12
Royals
-104
-105
1.05
L
-0.24%
6/12
Astros
-148
-127
1.27
W
3.73%
6/13
Tigers
128
155
0.65
W
4.64%
6/13
Dodgers
-174
-168
1.68
W
0.82%
6/15
Diamondbacks
-127
-121
1.21
W
1.20%
6/16
Blue Jays
212
199
0.50
W
-1.39%
6/16
Twins
165
190
0.53
W
3.25%
6/17
Orioles
-182
-156
1.56
W
3.60%
6/18
Pirates
-100
119
0.84
W
4.34%
6/19
Twins
181
155
0.65
W
-3.63%
6/20
Rockies
-108
-107
1.07
W
0.23%
6/21
Mariners
170
180
0.56
L
1.32%
6/21
Yankees
-185
-190
1.90
W
-0.60%
6/21
Cardinals
104
115
0.87
L
2.51%
6/22
Nationals
-162
-134
1.34
L
4.57%
6/22
Mets
133
137
0.73
L
0.72%
6/23
Tigers
221
236
0.42
L
1.39%
6/23
Royals
292
288
0.35
L
-0.26%
6/24
Rangers
151
170
0.59
L
2.80%
6/25
Nationals
104
106
0.94
L
0.48%
6/25
Padres
118
144
0.69
L
4.89%
6/26
Phillies
165
194
0.52
L
3.72%
6/26
Yankees
-180
-215
2.15
W
-3.97%
6/26
Rockies
135
119
0.84
L
-3.11%
6/27
Braves
-130
1.30
</tbody>
if you see anything I can do please let me know, I am always 100% open to any suggestions ie playing too many faves, too many big dogs, anything, cause I am just playing whatever I think has line value period, couple of those negs are cancel out games BTW
I dont bet that the market is wrong, I bet that the market is going to be correct. I got the line of the Dodgers +144 and the current line is say +114 or +184 I will bet that game hoping that the market will get correct somewhere closer to +144. The difference between the number I bet at and the number it closes at, I take those numbers subtract the margin from that and turn them into implied probability and subtract to calculate CLV.
I dont bet that the market is wrong, I bet that the market is going to be correct. I got the line of the Dodgers +144 and the current line is say +114 or +184 I will bet that game hoping that the market will get correct somewhere closer to +144. The difference between the number I bet at and the number it closes at, I take those numbers subtract the margin from that and turn them into implied probability and subtract to calculate CLV.
What is your CLV percentage on your WNBA bets this year?
So how are you calculating? I would assume that if you bet even and the line moves to -105 you have 5% CLV. So you would want at least 3% to equal a basic half-point line move.
Comments
LOL. Bitcoin.
You may make a gambler yet. Now if only you can figure out that CLV thing.
- - - Updated - - -
and sitting at 2.9% clv on the Ball-less Ball
- - - Updated - - -
and this is my NBA model I am using with NBA, and it is going to be even better on the NBA I hope! Now MY SDQL leaves something to be desired LMAO!
Storm +6.5
Wings +9.5
Dallas O160
He has never posted here as far as I know. I believe he has a free gambling book for download on Amazon if he is the one I remember doing it. You might want to check it out considering your novice status. You might find it educational.
Pokerjoe is the real deal. Longtime forum vet and I believe he resides here.
his book sharper is really good especially for noobs like me!, I really enjoyed it and learned a lot of evenhow to start to think another way about games and betting. A must read for noobs for sure and really anyone betting period. I also 100% recommend for anyone tailing people to read black cat in a coal cellar, it helps a ton to try and get the difference between a real capper and a guy who has good marketing.
I have never thought in terms of CLV % but that seems subpar. Aren't you going to need more like 5%?
Indiana +12
<colgroup><col style="width: 48px"><col width="113"><col width="55"><col width="43"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="68"><col width="60"><col width="75"><col width="61"><col width="70"><col width="65"><col width="71"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
Team
My Line
Close
Bet At
Bet Amt
Result
C3 Lines
Notes
Potential
Est CLV%
Odds
Actual CLV
6/12
Nationals
131
156
0.64
L
4.23%
6/12
Cubs
-111
109
0.92
L
4.76%
6/12
Royals
-104
-105
1.05
L
-0.24%
6/12
Astros
-148
-127
1.27
W
3.73%
6/13
Tigers
128
155
0.65
W
4.64%
6/13
Dodgers
-174
-168
1.68
W
0.82%
6/15
Diamondbacks
-127
-121
1.21
W
1.20%
6/16
Blue Jays
212
199
0.50
W
-1.39%
6/16
Twins
165
190
0.53
W
3.25%
6/17
Orioles
-182
-156
1.56
W
3.60%
6/18
Pirates
-100
119
0.84
W
4.34%
6/19
Twins
181
155
0.65
W
-3.63%
6/20
Rockies
-108
-107
1.07
W
0.23%
6/21
Mariners
170
180
0.56
L
1.32%
6/21
Yankees
-185
-190
1.90
W
-0.60%
6/21
Cardinals
104
115
0.87
L
2.51%
6/22
Nationals
-162
-134
1.34
L
4.57%
6/22
Mets
133
137
0.73
L
0.72%
6/23
Tigers
221
236
0.42
L
1.39%
6/23
Royals
292
288
0.35
L
-0.26%
6/24
Rangers
151
170
0.59
L
2.80%
6/25
Nationals
104
106
0.94
L
0.48%
6/25
Padres
118
144
0.69
L
4.89%
6/26
Phillies
165
194
0.52
L
3.72%
6/26
Yankees
-180
-215
2.15
W
-3.97%
6/26
Rockies
135
119
0.84
L
-3.11%
6/27
Braves
-130
1.30
</tbody>
if you see anything I can do please let me know, I am always 100% open to any suggestions ie playing too many faves, too many big dogs, anything, cause I am just playing whatever I think has line value period, couple of those negs are cancel out games BTW
Chicago O156
5% is really really high, I have never seen anyone even get close to that number!
NY +9.5
- - - Updated - - -
34-19-2 Units +13.1 before 6-28 games
That would be high for every game on the board which I guess is what you are referring to. But isn't that what you are looking for in games bet?
If you are getting 1.88% on every game, I guess you would have a reasonable chance of finding good bets.
What is your CLV percentage on your WNBA bets this year?
So how are you calculating? I would assume that if you bet even and the line moves to -105 you have 5% CLV. So you would want at least 3% to equal a basic half-point line move.
OK. What do you consider margin again? Because that is not profitable so I think I am about right here.
So what is 2.88% going to be on a regular basketball line sort of move as a theoretical equivalent example.
so example
the above bet -105 to -110 is nearly break even
Yeah. Nearly. 2.88% is going to be barely profitable, no?
OK then. That's pretty good.