-England with highest xG in a single game (without penalties) so far this WC. While they allowed about only 0.20 xG to Tunisia from open play. 4-1 or 3-1 would have been a better score based on their advanced stats against Tunisia.
-Panama couldn't keep up once Belgium turned on the intensity in the 2H of the first game. So looking for a 3-0 to 4-0 game here too, as England played with much more intensity than Belgium did.
-England with highest xG in a single game (without penalties) so far this WC. While they allowed about only 0.20 xG to Tunisia from open play. 4-1 or 3-1 would have been a better score based on their advanced stats against Tunisia.
-Panama couldn't keep up once Belgium turned on the intensity in the 2H of the first game. So looking for a 3-0 to 4-0 game here too, as England played with much more intensity than Belgium did.
rest of the plays:
Portugal -138 (will confirm this play an hour before gametime. Results from the Group A games, might decide how they play.)
Spain -1.5 +103
- These plays have little to do with the teams' scoring abilities or how well their defense can hold. This isn't about the stats.These plays are simply about chaos in the final half hour of the games. In game 3 of the first-round games, teams will be chasing goals, -1- to secure their qualification position (Russia & Uruguay), -2- to qualify (Spain, Portugal & Iran) or just to score and leave their dissapointing campaign with a win and their heads up (Morocco & Egypt). Many times they abandon their defensive formations and send men forward. Look for lots counterattacks with wide open fields for the attackers.
Peru/ Australia O2/ O2.5 -119
Argentina Nigeria O2.5 -120
Sweden/ Mexico O2/ O2.5 -104
Switzerland -136
Japan +152
Japan/ Poland O2/ O2.5 -121
Colombia/ Senegal O2/ O2.5 -121
Tunisia -117
England +187 (Vertonghen, Meunier, De Bryune and Kompany (doubtful), won't play. Defense has always been a weak spot for the Belgians)
Belgium/ England O2/ O2.5 -117
Insane that France can leave out Pogba, Mbappe, Pavard, Umtiti and Matuidi and still field a very strong squad. N'golo Kante is a shark as a defensive midfielder. Eriksen from Denmark will have a hard time creating chances over the middle. They'll mostly be going to the sides to try to generate something. They've been weak creating chances in the previous 2 games. Don't see them scoring here. France FTW.
Iceland +0.5 -105 (line dropped 8 cents as I was typing)
Iceland/Croatia U2/ U2.5
Iceland/ Croatia 1H draw +115
Iceland needs the win to advance. Croatia has already advanced and is starting 7 new players. Just like in the France/ Denmark game they'll probably not give a 100% effort in attack.
What an exhillarating afternoon. Hope you guys are enjoying it just like I am.
In the round of 16 I'm expecting the following teams to advance:
- Portugal
- Spain
- France
- Croatia
Portugal with the most difficult matchup v Uruguay. Based on their play so far, Argentina, Russia and Denmark are seriously flawed teams playing against very strong competition.
France to start Tolisso instead of Matuidi. This means less attacking options and more predictability from France. It will be easier for the solid Uruguay defense to contain them. Tolisso just doesn't move ahead on his flank to deliver crosses like Matuidi does. It reinforces my belief in the 1H draw and the 2H to be highest scoring. I have this game as a 1-0 for France or a 0-0 draw.
I was hoping one can you tell me on a 3 way what would half a goal be worth
say team A was +180
what would the line be with a half goal ?
Your question doesn't specify whether you're looking at 2-way or 3-way betting. The answer for 2-way betting is easy. Just have a look at CRIS' lines:
Premier League, August 10th:
Option 1
Manchester United -1 -125
Leicester City +1 +102
Option 2
Manchester United -0.5 -208
Leicester City +0.5 +167
The half goal changes the price on Manchester United (favorite) by 83 cents (66%), while the underdog Leicester City's odds change by 65 cents (64%).
Please note that in 3-way betting,
Manchester United -208 (same as the -0.5 handicap odds, you need ManU to win this game for the bet to cash)
Draw +322
Leicester City +582
Comments
game goes in 20 minutes
Peru +213
France -1.5, -2 -102
screw you Umtiti
Egypt 0, +0.5 +115
Senegal/ Poland O2 -106
Colombia -131
wednesday:
Portugal -0.5, -1 -117
later:
Switzerland +160
Mexico -1 -105
Belgium -1.5 -123
this explains a lot......
(Click on the pic.twitter. com link below)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Enjoyed watching Russia in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WorldCup?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#WorldCup</a><br>But I'm skeptical of the huge step-up in performance from a nation with a history of state-sponsored doping<br>Decided to have a look at distance run and every team fell within 1.4 standard deviations of the mean... Except for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Russia</a> <a href="https://t.co/8bRqBAS9kE">pic.twitter.com/8bRqBAS9kE</a></p>— Mr James Hodari (@MrJamesHodari) <a href="
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Tunisia/Belgium O2.5 -106
Germany Clean Sheet YES +101
Mexico Clean Sheet YES -112 (to win 2 units)
-England with highest xG in a single game (without penalties) so far this WC. While they allowed about only 0.20 xG to Tunisia from open play. 4-1 or 3-1 would have been a better score based on their advanced stats against Tunisia.
-Panama couldn't keep up once Belgium turned on the intensity in the 2H of the first game. So looking for a 3-0 to 4-0 game here too, as England played with much more intensity than Belgium did.
Great call!
Russia +205
rest of the plays:
Portugal -138 (will confirm this play an hour before gametime. Results from the Group A games, might decide how they play.)
Spain -1.5 +103
Russia/ Uruguay O2 -128
Iran/Portugal O2 -128
Morocco/ Spain O2.5/O3 -108
- These plays have little to do with the teams' scoring abilities or how well their defense can hold. This isn't about the stats.These plays are simply about chaos in the final half hour of the games. In game 3 of the first-round games, teams will be chasing goals, -1- to secure their qualification position (Russia & Uruguay), -2- to qualify (Spain, Portugal & Iran) or just to score and leave their dissapointing campaign with a win and their heads up (Morocco & Egypt). Many times they abandon their defensive formations and send men forward. Look for lots counterattacks with wide open fields for the attackers.
Line on Portugal already 20 cents worse. I'm not playing it.
tuesday till thursday
Peru/ Australia O2/ O2.5 -119
Argentina Nigeria O2.5 -120
Sweden/ Mexico O2/ O2.5 -104
Switzerland -136
Japan +152
Japan/ Poland O2/ O2.5 -121
Colombia/ Senegal O2/ O2.5 -121
Tunisia -117
England +187 (Vertonghen, Meunier, De Bryune and Kompany (doubtful), won't play. Defense has always been a weak spot for the Belgians)
Belgium/ England O2/ O2.5 -117
France +109
Round of 16:
Uruguay/ Portugal Draw +198
Spain -158 (2x)
Insane that France can leave out Pogba, Mbappe, Pavard, Umtiti and Matuidi and still field a very strong squad. N'golo Kante is a shark as a defensive midfielder. Eriksen from Denmark will have a hard time creating chances over the middle. They'll mostly be going to the sides to try to generate something. They've been weak creating chances in the previous 2 games. Don't see them scoring here. France FTW.
Iceland/Croatia U2/ U2.5
Iceland/ Croatia 1H draw +115
Iceland needs the win to advance. Croatia has already advanced and is starting 7 new players. Just like in the France/ Denmark game they'll probably not give a 100% effort in attack.
In the round of 16 I'm expecting the following teams to advance:
- Portugal
- Spain
- France
- Croatia
Portugal with the most difficult matchup v Uruguay. Based on their play so far, Argentina, Russia and Denmark are seriously flawed teams playing against very strong competition.
Tunisia/ Panama O2.5/ O3 -104
Adding:
France +138
Croatia -113 (2x)
Brazil/Mexico U2.5 -123
Switzerland/Sweden draw +194
England/ Colombia O2 -106
Japan +1/ +1.5 -113
France -101
Sweden +0.5 -105
England/ Sweden U2 -116
highest scoring half: 2nd half +119
1st booking: Uruguay -147
1Half to draw -108
France to start Tolisso instead of Matuidi. This means less attacking options and more predictability from France. It will be easier for the solid Uruguay defense to contain them. Tolisso just doesn't move ahead on his flank to deliver crosses like Matuidi does. It reinforces my belief in the 1H draw and the 2H to be highest scoring. I have this game as a 1-0 for France or a 0-0 draw.
Honestly hate it when I lose bets because of player stupidity
France +157 over Belgium.
England +127
say team A was +180
what would the line be with a half goal ?
Your question doesn't specify whether you're looking at 2-way or 3-way betting. The answer for 2-way betting is easy. Just have a look at CRIS' lines:
Premier League, August 10th:
Option 1
Manchester United -1 -125
Leicester City +1 +102
Option 2
Manchester United -0.5 -208
Leicester City +0.5 +167
The half goal changes the price on Manchester United (favorite) by 83 cents (66%), while the underdog Leicester City's odds change by 65 cents (64%).
Please note that in 3-way betting,
Manchester United -208 (same as the -0.5 handicap odds, you need ManU to win this game for the bet to cash)
Draw +322
Leicester City +582