CLV VS line movement direction
danshan
Senior Member
We all can basically in theory agree long term CLV + bettors who are beating the margin are profitable. But I see a gap here where there might be another indicator and that being movement direction. Please chime in.
Example I wont bet the Yankees if they are more fave than -140
so I wait all day and tomorrow comes and they are now 5 minutes before close they are -139, so I BET!
my line is -139 and it closes 5 minutes later at -141.
this is for sure negative value against the margin no argument there but could this be a possible indicator that the market agreed with your pick? I am saying if you are doing this often you can look horrible against the margin but could you still be on the right side of more than the assumed 50-50. If you could say do this over a large sample size and maintained some above a few deviations your direction could this be an indicator of skill? say it was 68% out of 5000 bets even though the clv over those 5000 bets was negative against the margin but the direction was nearly 2 out of 3 your way, would that indicate anything or am I just talking gibberish again?
Example I wont bet the Yankees if they are more fave than -140
so I wait all day and tomorrow comes and they are now 5 minutes before close they are -139, so I BET!
my line is -139 and it closes 5 minutes later at -141.
this is for sure negative value against the margin no argument there but could this be a possible indicator that the market agreed with your pick? I am saying if you are doing this often you can look horrible against the margin but could you still be on the right side of more than the assumed 50-50. If you could say do this over a large sample size and maintained some above a few deviations your direction could this be an indicator of skill? say it was 68% out of 5000 bets even though the clv over those 5000 bets was negative against the margin but the direction was nearly 2 out of 3 your way, would that indicate anything or am I just talking gibberish again?
Comments
You got a better line than the closing line, so you have 2 cents of positive line value
Wut?
That's exactly what is happening, it's called positive CLV
bettor A has a CLV of +2.00% he has 57% of his lines go in his direction
bettor B has CLV of -1.00% this guy bets all the time whenever he likes the line and he has 80% of the lines go in his direction
which is more skilled with this info only?
Milw -105
Giants -160
Dodgers -155
Atlanta +100
Cleveland -200
T.Bay -150
Boston -300
Houston -150
Philly -125
Toronto -115
Cards -120
Wash -220
Please don't be insulted if I don't get into discussions about closing lines and games I really don't have the time. But I wish you the best of of luck and hope you find what your searching for.
I've no idea if you were using the 5 minutes before kick-off as an example but, if your model is often only showing value when it's 5 minutes before kick-off, it's very likely that your model is off. Assuming an efficient market, your model should be close to the closing line on most games if you've an edge.
I don't agree with the notion that lots of successful bettors bet last minute either. If anything, they will bet whenever it's best for them to bet whether it be because the limits went up or if a game reached a certain number/price. I typically avoid betting games when it's close to kick-off in efficient markets because by then the number is about where it should be.
Your numbers are pretty similar to mine, here's what I have for today:
902 Arizona(Koch) +1.05
904 San Francisco(Suarez) -1.50
906 Miami(Smith) +1.55
908 Atlanta(McCarthy) +1.00
912 Kansas City(Hammel) -1.15
916 Boston(Sale) -3.25
918 Houston(Verlander) -1.45
920 Baltimore(Castro) +1.25
924 NY Mets(Wheeler) +1.15
926 Minnesota(Lynn) +1.30
928 Washington(Scherzer) -2.15
The only one we seem to be far off on is the Tampa Bay/Kansas City game.
I appreciate your response, thanks for that and the whole community always appreciates your input.
so here is the scenario and I hope this helps clarify what i am hinting at
Bettor A has a model that says the Yankees -140 so he says I bet them at anything above -130 and so here the Yankees open at -151 and he is pass and 5 minutes before first pitch the Yankees drop to -129 and he says oh great yeah!!!!! and bets -129, now the Yanks close at -131.
His CLV is garbage but the line moved in his direction
He obviously has positive line value but not enough to cover the margin -129 to -131
so his CLV is bad but the line moved in his direction
so my question is this a sharp bet or not? I am only using 1 game here but if this is his scenario and this is the result say 70% of the time would that not imply skill?
I really want to know how you can tell if someone is skilled.
OT when you say line value do you mean closing line value or do you mean value because you think Yanks are -170 is fair and you bet at -140.
so if I bet the Yanks at -130 5 minutes before kickoff and it closes at -130 that is a poor bet because the market is effecient and you are just paying juice on that wager? Your model having long term accuracy says its -150 and you got it at -130 is not relevant because the market is effecient?
I think we know overall the Market is effecient but I think we all also know that is not true on every game. We all see games close at -130 and we are like wtf what is this, I got this at -105 and nothing shows me -130, that happens and it is true and overall when you take into account 50000000000 games that game falls inbetween the sheets and the market stays effecient. I personally have read on here from skilled bettors that I would say probably have a good idea of prices and they say all the time WTF I got Braves at -130 and they closed at +100 and another skilled bettor will chime in and say I got -125.
and what about this question and answer this one and then go, MR super busy on here all day guy!
OT when you say line value do you mean closing line value or do you mean value because you think Yanks are -170 is fair and you bet at -140.
They have access to some books/agents that raise their limits at certain points in the day. That's the main reason but that's what I've been told by a friend who helps them get down.
W/L does not matter until you have 10000 bets and by then if you suck you are broke
CLV is a great measure, I mean that is how the house makes money but my fear here is that most people even here dont talk about it much and seem to discount it. I still believe to this moment you cant win if you cant beat the line by more than margin but many smart people will argue with that wholeheartedly.
Hey Joseph, do you think you could agree or disagree, I am wondering if you bet 1000 bets and 70% or more go in your direction maybe not enough to beat the margin, that 70% could be a reasonable indicator of skill? example bet @ -110 & it closes at -111 that would count
reply
Yes, it might show skill, but insufficient to make a long term profit. I might be a highly skilled golf tournament winner forecaster but because of the huge margin in such a market I still might be a million miles away from profitable expectation.