so my confusion continues, I keep reading all these guys posting picks with all these stats, comparisons and streaks. I dont see any of them posting avg line (because without Avg line w-l means nothing) and they are not posting clv either, I know most people dont agree with me on the importance of CLV but I am truly wondering why someone would tail them or what credit they would get with this limited what i consider important info not being posted or shown. I mean if you use standard deviation and you create 20 BT accounts using vpns and post picks just by standard deviation one or all of those accounts could be big time season winners but again that lacks complete credibility if you dont say why you chose that play specifically. I choose plays for only one reason, my model says the number is off, period! why do they choose them because Verlander is a good pitcher we all know that already that is why the line is -200
it doesnt make any sense, thats why. Most of these writeups tell you nothing , may sound great to a novice but you need to dig deeper, i keep telling you most of them will be gone long before the season is over. Your right w-l means nothing. I keep telling you just work on YOUR model and dont worry about everyone else. Am personally not concerned with CLV in baseball , am kinda like you , i make my line ,compare lines when i do them and if i feel i have the value i need ,i bet it. pretty easy, something happens later , am not worrying about it.
In the NBA i started posting right before 7 pm et , so my clv isnt going to look good or bad , does that mean i cap it ? I think am doing pretty good .
So what do i worry about most , me making a bet on Milu and winning at -113 or that the line went down to -107 and i lost 6 cents of value.
Am not so worried about that clv more then I am about winning or losing the game. I knew the starting lineups and starting pitchers , what should i be worried about if the line didnt move in my direction?
And with posting the numbers am going to start putting pn bm or bo after the line to show what book am using , you had -102 -104 and -106 with the three books we can use for the milu game....
have a great day
1st off I am still bitter from the Wolves 15 point 3rd quarter, I lost my lunch money on that game, 2nd that oddsportal thing sucks, those numbers for O/U are not correct whoever gave that to me sucked, 3rd yes winning the game ultimately is all that real matters; if I had +CLV on every game and just lost I would be out just as quick if I had -CLV BUT I think we need some honest gauge to show what the heck we are doing and why. On this thread I lost 8 out of the last 10 at about a 49% line now we all know that has nothing to do with bad picks its just the way the cookie crumbles, I might win the next 10 who knows. Knowing all the above how do we honestly gauge our skill level or luck to skill ratio. I want to know if I am unlucky or have poor skills and I believe CLV is the ONLY way to truly get a decent idea. Honestly you could be CLV lucky as well so in a sense that kinda even knocks that out the window. So I guess and solely guess the only way to truly know is to have 1000s and 1000s of plays using the same method and assuming nothing else has changed. What is anyone's opinion on this regurgitation I just spewed out?????
another crazy thought I have to judge skill vs luck is I say ok forget the margin and beating the line but look at direction
if I make 100 bets and know nothing 50 of the lines should move in my direction so in order for me to think of myself as skillful I would want to make sure that number is closer to 70 move my direction, the actual amount of movement is not as important just merely move my direction. I ultimately want to predict every closing line as accurate as possible because if I can do that it should make my path to 70 out of 100 easier. Any thoughts?????
another crazy thought I have to judge skill vs luck is I say ok forget the margin and beating the line but look at direction
if I make 100 bets and know nothing 50 of the lines should move in my direction so in order for me to think of myself as skillful I would want to make sure that number is closer to 70 move my direction, the actual amount of movement is not as important just merely move my direction. I ultimately want to predict every closing line as accurate as possible because if I can do that it should make my path to 70 out of 100 easier. Any thoughts?????
you really think 60 is good enough and if so can you elaborate or tell me why?
here are my current season MLB movement numbers which I track closely
Avg Neg -2.00%
you really think 60 is good enough and if so can you elaborate or tell me why?
here are my current season MLB movement numbers which I track closely
Avg Neg -2.00%
Avg Pos 2.38%
CLV + 53
CLV- 35
Margin+ 33
Margin - 57
% Is 60.23% no margin
but with margin % Is 36.67%
60% CLV on your bets equates to roughly 54% success rate.
so what you are saying forget how much it moves in my direction but if I can get 6 out of 10 that move my direction I should be in the +?
Not necessarily. It depends on how much you want to estimate your edge. If you have 60% CLV, you might not have significant CLV so that could be better estimated by using precise measurement. But it is a solid estimate if you do not want to take the time to do it or don't know how. I have found it to be pretty much dead on.
Comments
In the NBA i started posting right before 7 pm et , so my clv isnt going to look good or bad , does that mean i cap it ? I think am doing pretty good .
Rockets -9 216
Thunder -1 207.5
tor -6.90
hou -8.62 ..might take minn
Clev -1
Am not so worried about that clv more then I am about winning or losing the game. I knew the starting lineups and starting pitchers , what should i be worried about if the line didnt move in my direction?
And with posting the numbers am going to start putting pn bm or bo after the line to show what book am using , you had -102 -104 and -106 with the three books we can use for the milu game....
have a great day
Units -5.04
CLV .14%
if I make 100 bets and know nothing 50 of the lines should move in my direction so in order for me to think of myself as skillful I would want to make sure that number is closer to 70 move my direction, the actual amount of movement is not as important just merely move my direction. I ultimately want to predict every closing line as accurate as possible because if I can do that it should make my path to 70 out of 100 easier. Any thoughts?????
60% will do.
here are my current season MLB movement numbers which I track closely
Avg Neg -2.00%
Avg Pos 2.38%
CLV + 53
CLV- 35
Margin+ 33
Margin - 57
% Is 60.23% no margin
but with margin % Is 36.67%
60% CLV on your bets equates to roughly 54% success rate.
can you clarify it any better, I am wondering how you are getting those numbers
my avg line is 50.74% and my win% is 48.35%
so what you are saying forget how much it moves in my direction but if I can get 6 out of 10 that move my direction I should be in the +?
Not necessarily. It depends on how much you want to estimate your edge. If you have 60% CLV, you might not have significant CLV so that could be better estimated by using precise measurement. But it is a solid estimate if you do not want to take the time to do it or don't know how. I have found it to be pretty much dead on.
That is probably just bad luck just like your past performance has been good luck.