in General with two options of stake amount
danshan
Senior Member
Just say I have two NBA games and what I do now is bet $1 on every spot I see space. I was thinking does anyone think it might be wiser to place $1 on each half point I think there is space for example
Nets I got +1 and the book has +3 so 4 spots including half point moves
Now I would bet $1 dollar on Nets but I was thinking bet $4 since there is 4 spots of space
another example
Spurs -7 I got and book has -6
I currently bet $1 and in what i am saying bet $2 units since 2 spots of space.
I guess the question is when they are way off are they going to get more clv or am I just completely off. I guess the only way to know would be to break my clvs down by space
god I know I ramble cluelessly but I hope that makes enough sense to get a response from someone
thanks in advance again
Nets I got +1 and the book has +3 so 4 spots including half point moves
Now I would bet $1 dollar on Nets but I was thinking bet $4 since there is 4 spots of space
another example
Spurs -7 I got and book has -6
I currently bet $1 and in what i am saying bet $2 units since 2 spots of space.
I guess the question is when they are way off are they going to get more clv or am I just completely off. I guess the only way to know would be to break my clvs down by space
god I know I ramble cluelessly but I hope that makes enough sense to get a response from someone
thanks in advance again
Comments
I think the answer here is that increasing your bet linearly with the 'edge' that you calculate is VERY aggressive. Most bettors would only rarely double or triple their bet.
I think the answer here is that increasing your bet linearly with the 'edge' that you calculate is VERY aggressive. Most bettors would only rarely double or triple their bet.[/QUOTE]
What you call very agressive is the optimal.off course in sportsbetting its not possible to pinpoint precisely the mean edge for a give game.However you should mold your staking size according perceived edge.Assuming your estimations are accurate you will outperform anyother staking methodology this way(Kelly) and reach any arbitrary large goal faster.
Just bet half or one third of your perceived edge.if you are not good at estimating fair probabilities dont bet
What you call very agressive is the optimal.off course in sportsbetting its not possible to pinpoint precisely the mean edge for a give game.However you should mold your staking size according perceived edge.Assuming your estimations are accurate you will outperform anyother staking methodology this way(Kelly) and reach any arbitrary large goal faster.
Just bet half or one third of your perceived edge.if you are not good at estimating fair probabilities dont bet[/QUOTE]
All I read was dont bet and I 100% totally agree JK, I did not understand the part about "However you should mold your staking size according perceived edge", can you clarify that please?
do you have any long term results against the close, with your lines
no it is a very new my model was created Novemberish and tested and actually started mid dec.
what do you mean bet anything 3 points off your line and are you only talking NBA?
like lakers I got +3 and they are +7 that would be a hint that I am lost on that game at least?
and thanks for the reply?
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Could you explain in more depth?
Basically if I got -4 and the current line is -1 is it better to go harder after that in comparison to betting the same wager on every "edge" without regard to the implied edge differences or size of the edge
Thanks I have been straight betting for 45 days or so and doing well but that is nothing as we all know in this game, you need way more data than that
I think the sharp method is hard to identify is it just coincidence variance luck that 1-2 points is +3.5CLV and 3-5 points is +1.01%CLV or lord knows. I am very confused on a solid bank roll, if you look at my lines I have posted up you can see I am on the right track for the model but the stake method and how to play with those numbers is above my pay grade.