I usually don't write about my picks but I had to make an exception with the Browns pick. Ugh. I debated this one heavily. I've sided with the Browns the last two weeks and in both cases they've managed to screw-up what should've been covers, imo. Against Detroit, they were +10.5 and somehow the Browns blew that now infamous just before half time TD attempt, just incredible, come away with zero points. They lose by 14 even though they outgained Detroit! Last week was even more painful, just under 2 minutes left in game, Browns are covering +7.5 spread, all they need to do is NOT turn the ball over AND not allow Jags to score. Browns do both -- OMG!! They would've covered despite a 4-1 turnover deficit in the game (ended up being 5-1 TO deficit, or net -4). I've written here before about how turnovers are the #1 determinant of game outcomes and NFL teams with +3 TO margin are 172-16 ATS since 2011. And last week the Browns would've made that 171-17 ATS if they just held on to the ball for the final two minutes. The larger point being they would've defied STEEP odds, where teams in their position only cover 9% of time, and doing so versus the Jags, imo one of the top-5 teams in the NFL.
Are the Browns a bad team? Of course, duh. That's not the question. Rather, as with any team, how accurately is the line reflecting the team? To me, in the last two weeks (or more), the line has been inflated. Frankly, as I described above, the Browns have actually been competitive, with Kizer being not good but improving (he needs better coaching!). Detroit and Jags are no slouches and Browns were keeping it close (ATS) in each. And before that they played tough vs. the very good Vikings, covering until the final quarter.
Now they face the Bengals, a team arguably the opposite of Browns. whereas Browns are deceptively better than public thinks, the Bengals are worse (= line value). The Bengals were fortunate to beat the very bad Broncos last week, thanks to +2 TO margin. The Bengals have no running game, zilch, awful. The Browns are actually very good against the run. Browns should be able to shutdown Cin rush attack forcing Dalton to throw, which can often be an adventure these days. Browns are turnover prone, but Bengals not good at forcing turnovers. These two division rivals hate each other, insuring Browns show up, and also Browns lost at home to Cin 31-7 on Oct. 1st, so big revenge here and Browns better team now then on Oct 1st and Cin worse team now vs. then.
I always hold my nose when picking Browns, but when the play is there, you must play it. I hope I don't regret it for third week in a row.
Browns, ugh. More regrets? Yes and no. Yes because it was an ATS loss, but no because once again they should've covered!! See box score stats below, Browns left Bengals right. Browns outyarded Bengals 405-361, yards per play near dead even, Browns led in both rushing and passing yards, time of possession near dead even, and no turnovers in game. How do Browns not cover generous +7.5?!! Amazing.
The entire coaching staff needs to be fired, now. If I were a GM, the ATS record would be something i keep close eye on re firing coach. Browns are 2-8 ATS this season and 10-30 ATS last 3 seasons. Tells me the coaching staff not getting the team to play better than expected or up to their perceived talent. Today's game perfect example, given those close stats, some how some way Browns needed to cover that game and certainly not lose by 14 points.
But as a 'capper, no, Browns were the play and they shouldve covered.
Total Yards 405 361
Yards per Play 6.0 6.1
Passing 236 209
Rushing 169 152
Possession 29:28 30:32
Comments
Jaguars +1
Saints +6
Colts +7 -115
Jets +13.5
Seahawks -14
Jaguars +3
Saints +5.5
Titans -2.5
Titans -2.5
Jets +3.5
Bills +8
Chargers -1.5
Cowboys -3
Bears +6
Redskins -11
Cards +1.5
Steelers +3.5
Broncos -11.5
Bears +3
Packers +4
Giants +3.5
Broncos -1
2-unit: 1-0, +2 units
1-unit: Saints -10, Redskins +1.5
Rams -4.5
Falcons -2.5
Ravens +3.5
Jaguars -4.5
Saints -3
Browns +10.5
Giants -2.5
Texans -2.5
Browns +7.5
Patriots -7
Eagles -6
Cards +4.5
Are the Browns a bad team? Of course, duh. That's not the question. Rather, as with any team, how accurately is the line reflecting the team? To me, in the last two weeks (or more), the line has been inflated. Frankly, as I described above, the Browns have actually been competitive, with Kizer being not good but improving (he needs better coaching!). Detroit and Jags are no slouches and Browns were keeping it close (ATS) in each. And before that they played tough vs. the very good Vikings, covering until the final quarter.
Now they face the Bengals, a team arguably the opposite of Browns. whereas Browns are deceptively better than public thinks, the Bengals are worse (= line value). The Bengals were fortunate to beat the very bad Broncos last week, thanks to +2 TO margin. The Bengals have no running game, zilch, awful. The Browns are actually very good against the run. Browns should be able to shutdown Cin rush attack forcing Dalton to throw, which can often be an adventure these days. Browns are turnover prone, but Bengals not good at forcing turnovers. These two division rivals hate each other, insuring Browns show up, and also Browns lost at home to Cin 31-7 on Oct. 1st, so big revenge here and Browns better team now then on Oct 1st and Cin worse team now vs. then.
I always hold my nose when picking Browns, but when the play is there, you must play it. I hope I don't regret it for third week in a row.
The entire coaching staff needs to be fired, now. If I were a GM, the ATS record would be something i keep close eye on re firing coach. Browns are 2-8 ATS this season and 10-30 ATS last 3 seasons. Tells me the coaching staff not getting the team to play better than expected or up to their perceived talent. Today's game perfect example, given those close stats, some how some way Browns needed to cover that game and certainly not lose by 14 points.
But as a 'capper, no, Browns were the play and they shouldve covered.
Total Yards 405 361
Yards per Play 6.0 6.1
Passing 236 209
Rushing 169 152
Possession 29:28 30:32
1-unit: 22-23, -3.3 units
2-unit: 2-1, +1.8 units
Broncos -2
Colts +10 -115
Bucs +2.5
1-units:
Lions -2.5 -115
Vikings -2.5
Browns +2.5
Broncos +1.5
Eagles +1
Texans +10.5
Jets +16.5
Bengals +11
Bills -3.5
Titans +1
Patriots -2.5
Eagles -9
Panthers -10.5
49ers +4
Jaguars +1.5
Broncos -4.5
2-unit: 2-2, -0.40 units
1-unit: 36-33-1, -0.25 units
Ugh, onto post-season....