actually the sdql includes the line so if the line opens at blah it might be a bet for me but say the line changes again it might get kicked depending on the line movement, but the line is only one of 5 factors.
Well good luck, it's not something I'd ever consider betting.
durito, I really do appreciate your input. So basically you are saying sdql is crap. I can agree with that to a certain extent. The thing with my sdql is it is based on my betting pattern and all the past results do is show me how my betting pattern would have done over the past 13 yers and the reason you say you would never bet it, I really dont understand that part honestly.
I was going to post but rito has covered everything there is to say. Listen to him. He's absolutely right about everything he's posted in this thread.
yeah to be honest I am not exactly sure what he told me, he said he would not bet and that the market will adjust to kill my bet eventually and to not use past stats to determine future results. I am not sure I understand why this is true?
I'm not an accomplished bettor but I do have some experience with sdql. I notice you already found the google group which is basically sdql headquarters, so you pretty much know where to go with your questions. My advice is to do what you already probably plan on doing anyway -- play it and see if it wins. For now don't let yourself fall too deep into dreams of solid gold toilet seats. I think sdql is basically another piece of evidence, and the trick with it is not to assign too much, or too little, significance to that evidence. What I like about it as evidence is that it helps get me away from hunches and intuition, and leads me in a more objective numerical-based direction...
I'm not an accomplished bettor but I do have some experience with sdql. I notice you already found the google group which is basically sdql headquarters, so you pretty much know where to go with your questions. My advice is to do what you already probably plan on doing anyway -- play it and see if it wins. For now don't let yourself fall too deep into dreams of solid gold toilet seats. I think sdql is basically another piece of evidence, and the trick with it is not to assign too much, or too little, significance to that evidence. What I like about it as evidence is that it helps get me away from hunches and intuition, and leads me in a more objective numerical-based direction...
I think sdql is great, I take my betting "hunches" lets call them and I run them since 2003 to see if what I consider valid handicapping is good or not.
Example I always like to play a home favorite after a big win and the sdql will show you that literally does not matter.
I also thought super high OU were always good Under bets and sdql will show you that is just not true.
things like that make sdql priceless
and yes rook thank you, your comment is the best thing yet, but my question is still I have an sdql with 1000 games and a 5.9% ROI is that awesome or is it as rook puts it just another thing to throw into the betting mind before making a play.
and if my sdql is garbage how can it be, I mean it is over 13 seasons with wins nearly every year and over the life of sdql and over 1000 games has a 5.9% ROI, please tell me how that is garbage, please so I understand. I am not doubting the skill here but just tell me why I am retarded for thinking it is cool, please
and if my sdql is garbage how can it be, I mean it is over 13 seasons with wins nearly every year and over the life of sdql and over 1000 games has a 5.9% ROI, please tell me how that is garbage, please so I understand. I am not doubting the skill here but just tell me why I am retarded for thinking it is cool, please
are you talking about this comment and if so he does not say why it is wrong? the market is undervaluing the play and will catch up, they have not for 15 years since sdql and I bet even longer if we hand did the data, why does that mean it is wrong??? tell me in plain english I am dumb sorry
Ok, so with 95% confidence we can say the true return of this system is between 67% and 73%. Average odds of -198, shit fire away we getting rich.
Not so fast. In reality this just doesn't work out. How many systems did you try first before coming up with this one? If we looking for a 5% p-value you'd only have to test about 20 before stumbling into one randomly that looks significant but isn't. Does the system make sense? Ie is there a reason you think the market is systemically under valuing something? LIke say NFL home underdogs the week after getting blown out. That was pretty solid for a long time -- until it wasn't.
That's the main issue with systems that take an angle and suggest betting without projecting our own fair value. You have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke.
are you talking about this comment and if so he does not say why it is wrong? the market is undervaluing the play and will catch up, they have not for 15 years since sdql and I bet even longer if we hand did the data, why does that mean it is wrong??? tell me in plain english I am dumb sorry
Ok, so with 95% confidence we can say the true return of this system is between 67% and 73%. Average odds of -198, shit fire away we getting rich.
Not so fast. In reality this just doesn't work out. How many systems did you try first before coming up with this one? If we looking for a 5% p-value you'd only have to test about 20 before stumbling into one randomly that looks significant but isn't. Does the system make sense? Ie is there a reason you think the market is systemically under valuing something? LIke say NFL home underdogs the week after getting blown out. That was pretty solid for a long time -- until it wasn't.
That's the main issue with systems that take an angle and suggest betting without projecting our own fair value. You have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke.
Ok nvm. Bet it and get rich. He's trying to help you and you refuse to see it.
Not so fast. In reality this just doesn't work out. Why?
How many systems did you try first before coming up with this one? None but how does that matter?
If we looking for a 5% p-value you'd only have to test about 20 before stumbling into one randomly that looks significant but isn't. Why isnt it?
Does the system make sense? absolutely it is very legitimate stats not crazy streaks or games on tuesday or anything like that
Ie is there a reason you think the market is systemically under valuing something? I have no idea really how to value a line.
LIke say NFL home underdogs the week after getting blown out. That was pretty solid for a long time -- until it wasn't. OK this is not that
I am not refusing to see it, just in one sentence tell me why it is garbage?
"Since you have no clue how to make a fair line, you'll have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke."
"Since you have no clue how to make a fair line, you'll have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke."
it has been working since 2004, why would it change now with my chump change wagers believe me nobody is going to be worried about my bets
screw the haters danshan. post the plays so we can get rich with you
I plan to post them has not been a game in 3 days but trust me I will post up and I might lose my ass but I guarantee one thing it will be a good time telling all of these guys on here, why did you not tell me not to bet this, I asked a 100 times and you never told me it sucked, why oh why!
it has been working since 2004, why would it change now with my chump change wagers believe me nobody is going to be worried about my bets
Buddy, nobody is saying you're going to be the one moving the lines. The idea is that, if your angle is worthwhile, other people out there will find it and bet it, and suck all of the value out until you're paying the juice. And you'll have no way of knowing when this happens.
Please spend more than 30 seconds considering this scenario before you reply.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and a $1000 win
But here's what your not getting about this. Here it is again same trend using the past 3.5 years which is a little more current.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and date>=20140401 Total <132>
I don't want to piss on your parade and I'm not saying not to consider trends went looking to bet. But the way to go is to put your energy into learning how to make a fair line and then play the money not the teams. That's just one way to go. At the very least you'll know if your getting value. Here's one that I like it could happen the way I see it or maybe not.
Tomorrow (Saturday I played the Mets -158 it would surprise me if this didn't hit -180/-185
Comments
Well good luck, it's not something I'd ever consider betting.
Split data into test/train sets. Train data on train set, test on test set. Repeat.
-181 http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=H+and+line%3D-181&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
people take this info and say look "i have a guaranteed winner"
this is just not true
Of course. Just make sure to follow the record keeping guidelines found at the top of the forum.
It's pretty self-explantory if you've read the record keeping guidelines.
For a -190 bet you'd be risking 1.9u to win 1u.
yeah to be honest I am not exactly sure what he told me, he said he would not bet and that the market will adjust to kill my bet eventually and to not use past stats to determine future results. I am not sure I understand why this is true?
I think sdql is great, I take my betting "hunches" lets call them and I run them since 2003 to see if what I consider valid handicapping is good or not.
Example I always like to play a home favorite after a big win and the sdql will show you that literally does not matter.
I also thought super high OU were always good Under bets and sdql will show you that is just not true.
things like that make sdql priceless
Try looking here:
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180438-I-have-an-SDQL-and-need-advice-on-it?p=905772&viewfull=1#post905772
Ok, so with 95% confidence we can say the true return of this system is between 67% and 73%. Average odds of -198, shit fire away we getting rich.
Not so fast. In reality this just doesn't work out. How many systems did you try first before coming up with this one? If we looking for a 5% p-value you'd only have to test about 20 before stumbling into one randomly that looks significant but isn't. Does the system make sense? Ie is there a reason you think the market is systemically under valuing something? LIke say NFL home underdogs the week after getting blown out. That was pretty solid for a long time -- until it wasn't.
That's the main issue with systems that take an angle and suggest betting without projecting our own fair value. You have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke.
Ok nvm. Bet it and get rich. He's trying to help you and you refuse to see it.
GL fam
How many systems did you try first before coming up with this one? None but how does that matter?
If we looking for a 5% p-value you'd only have to test about 20 before stumbling into one randomly that looks significant but isn't. Why isnt it?
Does the system make sense? absolutely it is very legitimate stats not crazy streaks or games on tuesday or anything like that
Ie is there a reason you think the market is systemically under valuing something? I have no idea really how to value a line.
LIke say NFL home underdogs the week after getting blown out. That was pretty solid for a long time -- until it wasn't. OK this is not that
"Since you have no clue how to make a fair line, you'll have no idea when the market will start incorporating that angle and probably will only find out once you've gone broke."
it has been working since 2004, why would it change now with my chump change wagers believe me nobody is going to be worried about my bets
Start your thread, post your plays, stop theoriticizing. Idea?
I plan to post them has not been a game in 3 days but trust me I will post up and I might lose my ass but I guarantee one thing it will be a good time telling all of these guys on here, why did you not tell me not to bet this, I asked a 100 times and you never told me it sucked, why oh why!
Please spend more than 30 seconds considering this scenario before you reply.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and a $1000 win
But here's what your not getting about this. Here it is again same trend using the past 3.5 years which is a little more current.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and date>=20140401 Total <132>
I don't want to piss on your parade and I'm not saying not to consider trends went looking to bet. But the way to go is to put your energy into learning how to make a fair line and then play the money not the teams. That's just one way to go. At the very least you'll know if your getting value. Here's one that I like it could happen the way I see it or maybe not.
Tomorrow (Saturday I played the Mets -158 it would surprise me if this didn't hit -180/-185