200 to 10,000 Betting Log (Division)
Division
Senior Member
I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn 200 into 10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.
Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.
Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.
I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.
I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill
*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning 20 into 1,000 for example.
*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate 500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the worlds poorest people to transform their lives.
Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.
Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.
I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.
I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill
*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning 20 into 1,000 for example.
*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate 500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the worlds poorest people to transform their lives.
Comments
English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67
English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56
English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_sign
He's basically trying to quantify what the expectation is on his bet. So based on his numbers, he'll return $1.27 for every $1 bet. (ie, if you gave me +120 on a coin toss, the "expected value" as he's calculating it would be 110% since that's what I'd expect to return on every dollar bet). It's just the expected winning % (or "expected strike rate" as he phrased it) multiplied by the odds.
The alternative would be to just bet the same amount for all 75 bets. If you bet $200 each time, you would have a 70.75 chance of reaching your goal and get a 363% cumulative return, including upside and downside scenarios. You may say, "well I wouldnt make 75 $200 bets I dont have a bankroll that deep", but the theorists would say you dont have a deep enough bankroll to bet $200 to win $10K either.
But I am on YOUR side on this one. You have a system that is unproven. You dont know for sure that it has a 5% ROI, because if you had real faith in your 5% ROI on a market as deep as EPL you wouldn't be betting $200 on anything. In that case I like the idea of increasing the bet as you win. It is like having a parlay bet with correlated legs.
Lets consider two types of systems:
System A: Bet football teams in the 1st quarter who like to receive when they are playing teams that like to defer. I see the ratio between the game money line and the Q1 moneyline and when you have one of these receive vs. defer matchups it is the same as the ratio in the same week where you have a receive vs receive matchup. I KNOW there is an edge here. So I should bet 1 unit per game.
System B: Blindly bet NFL Home Dogs of 7+ points after Thanksgiving. This is a system that I think works but I dont know whether it has been arbitraged away or the bookies have priced it in and it no longer works in 2016. So I think it works but wont really ever know for sure. In this type of system I think your wacky progressive betting system mgiht be a good idea.
ALSO I GOT IN ON YOUR PICKS WELL DONE 2 for 2.
To put things as simply as possible, I make my own prices which allows me to be determine my estimated winning percentage and therefore expected value.
In that case I'm wondering why you would sign up for $10 to post your strategy?
Hull 1-1 West Brom
Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 West Ham
Current Balance: €282
English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82
Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102
Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98
Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund
Current Balance: €294
English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: 81
English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: 108
English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: 105
Everton 2-1 Arsenal
West Ham 1-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd
Current Balance: 406
English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: 99
English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: 152
English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: 155
Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 Liverpool
Current Balance: 190
English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: 58
English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: 64
Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: 68
Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man City
Current Balance: 197
German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: 62
English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: 58
English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: 77
Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 Sunderland
Current Balance: 290
German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: 102
Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: 81
Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: 107
Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 Barcelona
Current Balance: 138
English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: 43
English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: 36
English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: 52
Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 Hull
Current Balance: 137
English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: 53
English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: 39
German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: 45
Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim
Current Balance: 69
Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: 22
Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: 25
Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: 22
To quote my opening post:
"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning 20 into 1,000 for example."
I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.
Regarding my pledge to donate 500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.