NFL 2016-2017 thread
sosoangry
Senior Member
I have no play on tonight's game (sorry) but I just had to present the following from Marc Lawrence:
NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 19-3 SU in home openers since 1994; and Denver is 28-4 SU and 20-10-2 ATS in home openers since 1984 (including 2-0 SUATS as a dog); and 18-9 SU and 19-7-1 ATS as a non-division home dog since 1983.
Defending Super Bowl losers who open the season on the road in Game One are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 1990, including 0-6 SUATS versus a foe that won 11 or more games the previous year.
And yet the SB loser Panthers are road faves here, at Denver no less, tough away venue... Huh?
It does make you question trends, at what point does Vegas correct for? And do all these trends apply despite Denver's QB situation (which we can presume is accounted for in the line?)?
It's my general tendency regarding fairly well-known trends to go against them.... By the time they become "established" and part of the tout universe, they're likely ready to reverse....
NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 19-3 SU in home openers since 1994; and Denver is 28-4 SU and 20-10-2 ATS in home openers since 1984 (including 2-0 SUATS as a dog); and 18-9 SU and 19-7-1 ATS as a non-division home dog since 1983.
Defending Super Bowl losers who open the season on the road in Game One are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 1990, including 0-6 SUATS versus a foe that won 11 or more games the previous year.
And yet the SB loser Panthers are road faves here, at Denver no less, tough away venue... Huh?
It does make you question trends, at what point does Vegas correct for? And do all these trends apply despite Denver's QB situation (which we can presume is accounted for in the line?)?
It's my general tendency regarding fairly well-known trends to go against them.... By the time they become "established" and part of the tout universe, they're likely ready to reverse....
Comments
1-unit Browns +3.5
1-unit Bears +5
1-unit Dolphins +10.5
2-unit Rams +7
2-unit Texans -2.5
1-unit Rams OVER 38
1-unit Lions -6
1-unit Jaguars +3
1-unit Cowboys +3
1-unit Vikings +2.5
1-unit Bears -3
Your main record needs to be unweighted (all plays 1u) but you're free to keep a secondary weighted record as well.
Thanks.
rest 1-unit:
Bills +3.5
Redskins +3
Vikings +7
49ers +10
Eagles +3.5
Patriots -7.5
Browns +7.5
Bucs +3
49ers +2
Chiefs +5
all 1-unit:
Bills Pk
Chargers +3.5
Lions +4 -115
Patriots OVER 46.5
Colts -4.5
2-unit Bengals +9 -115
2-unit Dolphins +7
Bills -8
Jets +7
rest 1-unit:
Vikings -3
Bucs +1
Steelers +7
rest 1-unit:
Bills +6
Colts +3 -120
Bears +4
Browns +7
Raiders -1
rest 1-unit:
Jaguars -2
Packers -3
Bears -2.5
Vikings +2.5
rest 1-unit:
Colts -2.5
Chiefs -7.5
49ers +11.5
Vikings -2.5
Browns +8
Redskins +7 -120
Bengals +4
Browns +7
Bucs +6
Jets +7.5
Packers +4
2.5 unit Redskins +2.5
2 unit Ravens -3.5
2 unit Chargers -3.5
rest 1 unit:
Jags +3.5
Falcons -5.5
49ers -2
Steelers -6.5
Panthers +7.5
Jets +1.5
rest 1-unit:
Titans -1
Steelers -3
Jaguars +3
Colts -6.5
Bengals -5
back soon with an updated record....
2-unit Bears +5.5
1-unit Vikings -4.5
1-unit Redskins -6.5
rest 1-unit:
Bears +3
Saints -3.5
Vikings +7
Browns +4
Broncos +3.5 -115
rest 1-unit:
Eagles -5.5
Titans -4
Vikings -6.5