paddyboy longshot futures thread
paddyboy111
Senior Member
I like to play Futures bets because I find there are often good line shopping opportunities, more time to react to lines, and I find more dopamine per dollar wagered when I can follow a Longshot over the ups and downs of a season. I'm going to start posting my new futures here, mostly longshots where I see EV.
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (5D) to win the 2017 Eastern Conference, 1 units
Bookies have Toronto as the singular worst team in the NHL after last place finish in 2016, but goalie and 1st line have high variance around them, so I'll give it a play after seeing Matthews' 4 goals in his debut. 5d line shown is 100-1 for the stanley cup which doesnt have as much EV as 50-1 to win the conference so I'll pass on that.
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (BM) to win the 2017 Atlantic Division 2 units
This division is pretty wide open, with no dominant team. TB as the favorite who is only 7th ranked in the NHL.
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (5D) to win the 2017 Eastern Conference, 1 units
Bookies have Toronto as the singular worst team in the NHL after last place finish in 2016, but goalie and 1st line have high variance around them, so I'll give it a play after seeing Matthews' 4 goals in his debut. 5d line shown is 100-1 for the stanley cup which doesnt have as much EV as 50-1 to win the conference so I'll pass on that.
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (BM) to win the 2017 Atlantic Division 2 units
This division is pretty wide open, with no dominant team. TB as the favorite who is only 7th ranked in the NHL.
Comments
Philadelphia Eagles at 57-1 (5Dimes) to win Super Bowl 51, 1 unit
There are holes in the team but when you are betting longshots you dont have to think too hard about the negatives. The longshot futures game is more about finding bad lines (which happen much more often than single-game lines). Here we have two of my books with San Diego at 16-1 and 17.5 to 1 and 5D has them at 27.5 to 1.
One other consideration when betting is to calculate the vig on the futures bet. In this case all the books effectively take 10 points on this bet if they are in balance. That gives me comfort that the differential in the pricing is actually an arbitragable anomaly rather than the other two books just having bad pricing.
San Diego Chargers at 27.5 to 1 to win AFC West, 2 units
Wisconsin Badgers at 38.5 to 1 to win the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, 1 unit
Evan McMullin to be elected President at 500-1 for 1 unit.
Chargers and Eagles wont make the playoffs and Trump won the presidency, so (0-3), -4 units.
In play bets for Maple Leafs have gained a little EV as they are middle of the pack after slow start. And Wisconsin has performed about as expected, so the bargain price got some EV.
New entry is to parlay the winners of the AFC and NFC. I like the path for Pittsburgh, a hot team who will probably face backup QBs for Miami and Oakland. They might even get a home game in the championship as Pats will probably have to get past a dangerous KC. Atlanta I'm not convinced about but I like the over-hype on Dallas' young players. What I really like about the bet is the price seems slightly off at 29.25-1 on 5d. If we did a parlay on BM this would pay 20-1. A parlay on 5d it would pay 25-1, so I will take 29.25. Also would love to see mighty Pats fall, so this aligns with my betting interest.
Pittsburgh to face Atlanta in the Super Bowl, 2 units at 29.25 to 1.
This one isnt much of a longshot, but I think it is a valuable future bet on 5D. Who will score most goals in the Champions League this year. At beginning of round of 16 Messi had it all wrapped up, with home/away sets for 4 more rounds, he had 10 goals and 2nd place was at 6. And his team had the most expected games remaining. But due to PSG's 4-0 drubbing of Barcelona, Messi is likely to play only one more game and the second place guy, Cavani of PSG is likely to continue to play at least 2 more games. Cavani has averaged 1.08 goals per game including his league play (allbeit against soft French teams), and Messi is nearly the exact same but against tougher opponents.
I think Cavani should be expected to play 3.5 more remaining games than Messi and has to make up a 3 goal deficit. I dont think he'll do it but I put it at around 20% chance of a tie and 20% chance of him beating Messi.
Another way of looking at it is that PSG has about a 23% chance of making final. That would give Cavani 6 games to make up the 3 goal deficit.
At 7.5 to 1 I think there is value her. Small payoff compared to most of my plays so I'll put 4 units on it. Dead heat rules apply.
Edinson Cavani to score most goals in Champions League 2016/2017, 4 units at 7.5 to 1.
Mexico is the 6th ranked team in the World Baseball Classic and has the easiest group in round 1 as well as playing the games in Mexico. The 2nd round and finals are tough because only 2 of US, Mexico and DR will advance, but LA and San Diego venues are essentially home games. They don't have a complete lineup of hitters but have full MLB roster of pitching, especially relievers which are important due to extra-innings rule. Breezed through qualifiers outscoring opponents 25 runs to 3. Mexico has done poorly in this competition in the past which may be why the price is available.
1 unit on Mexico to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 30-1
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (5D) to win the 2017 Eastern Conference, 1 units
Maple Leafs at 50-1 (BM) to win the 2017 Atlantic Division 2 units
Wisconsin Badgers at 38.5 to 1 to win the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, 1 unit
Edinson Cavani to score most goals in Champions League 2016/2017, 7.5 to 1 for 4 units
Mexico to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 30-1, 1 unit
0.5 units on Chinese Taipei to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 100-1
Record is now 0-9, 15 units, waiting on:
Maple Leafs to win the Eastern Conference 50-1, 1 unit
Adding here two bets on the French election, the initial primary that results in two candidates on Sunday, and the election two years later. A late break by a leftist candidate Melenchon has put him in 4th but just a few points below first place in the polling. The leftist vote has been split between two candidates and Melenchon should continue to move up on election day as people don't throw away their vote on the guy who is distant 5th in polls. Sportsbetting.ag has a market on this:
Jean-Luc Melenchon to win first round of French Presidential Election at 16-1, 2 units
Melenchon would also be favored if he faced off against the Trumpist Marine Le Pen in the final election, so there is value here:
Jean-Luc Melenchon to win French Presidential Election 14-1, 2 units.