- Soccer 2015/2016 -
Obi One
Senior Member
This thread will have all my soccer plays for the upcoming season. From national club leagues to international friendlies, it will all be in here.
Champions League prelims are underway. Here's where I see value:
Shakhtar Donetsk PK +105
FC Basel +167
Rapid Wien +167
Shakhtar goes off in 15 minutes, the other 2 are for tomorrow. If there are any questions, feel free to ask.
Champions League prelims are underway. Here's where I see value:
Shakhtar Donetsk PK +105
FC Basel +167
Rapid Wien +167
Shakhtar goes off in 15 minutes, the other 2 are for tomorrow. If there are any questions, feel free to ask.
Comments
Contrary to baseball and ice-hockey, line-moves can be pretty substantial in soccer. However as there are much fewer goals being scored, variance in result is also higher.
European Cup qualifiers:
- Sturm Graz +170
- Dynamo Minsk +470
- Dynamo Minsk +1 -157
Parlay:
- Southampton, Borussia Dortmund, West Ham United +157
ytd:
1-1-1 for +0.67units
ytd-u: 2-3-1 for +3.37 units
ytd-w: 3-3-1 for +4.37 units
Ajax -117
Ajax/ Rapid Wien O2.5 -122
- Gotta love these return games in elimination contests. Ajax is sporting a very young team this season, even though most of them have 2 or 3 seasons of European and local soccer experience already. They played very well in the attack last week in Rapid Wien's stadium. Too bad their defense made a couple of mistakes which allowed the Vienna players to equalise the game at 2-2. But given the coring chances, the game could have also ended 4-2 or 5-2 in Ajax' advantage.
For the return, Vienna needs to win this match or play to a 2-2 draw to be able to get to penalties, otherwise they're eliminated. This wil open up the field for Ajax. This is not good for Vienna's weak defense. With Ajax playing at home, I'm pretty sure they'll win this game. With Vienna needing goals to advance, this will probably be an exciting match, with lots of attacks and shots on goal. It's just not Ajax' style to bunker down and play defensively. They'll try to maintain the 4-3-3 as much as possible.
PSG -125 over Lille
- Dynamo Zagreb/Molde 1H U0.5/1 +122
- Young Boys/ AS Monaco U2.5 +126
ytd-w: 4-6-1 for +2.20 units
Champions League prelims:
- Basel -1 +112
- Basel/ Lech Poznan O2.5 -130
- Shakhtar Donetsk -120
Dynamo Minsk/ FC Zurich draw +229
Inter Baku +1 -102
AZ Alkmaar +0.5/ +1 -111
Astra Giurgiu +168
Southampton +140
Sturm Graz +0.5/ +1 -108
parlay:
Southampton/ St Etienne +232
ytd-w: 10-9-1 for +5.98 units (last 6-3-1 for +3.78)
Friday, Ligue 1 pending:
- PSG -125 vs Lille
Current line is -140/-150 still good to go imo. Should be more around -200, Paris St Germain playing really good football early this season.
Saturday, Premier League:
Manchester United -152 and -1 +110
Aston Villa +306 and +0.5 -114
Netherlands, Eredivisie:
Utrecht +1 +122 and +603
Feyenoord a sieve in the back, few spurts of good defense in preseason friendlies, while Utrecht has the firepower to compete. Line totally out of whack.
Premier League
Arsenal -1.5 -112
Arsenal -145 1H
Arsenal HT/FT -113 (5D props)
-Arsenal is a title contender that has started the season strong. They have only lost 2 home matches over their previous 37 games at The Emirates stadium. They beat Chelsea 2-0 last weekend for the Community Shield. West Ham United just lost to Astra Giurgiu (who?) and got eliminated from European Soccer. I'm simply not expecting them to score here. High chance of Arsenal doing their part and scoring 2. I'm also banking on them scoring at least 1 before halftime
Southampton +166 vs Newcastle
Holland Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar PK +121 and +199 (3-way ML)
Ajax/ AZ O2.5 -140 (2x)
ytd-u: 12-9-3 for +8.98 units (last 3-0-1 for +3.00)
ytd-w: 14-10-4 for +11.04 units (last 4-1-2 for +5.06)
Premier League, UK:
West Bromwich Albion/ Manchester City BTTS -125
Manchester City -153
Premier League, Belarus:
Dynamo Minsk +0.5 -103
Dynamo Minsk/ BATE Boris draw +225
Premier League, Russia:
Kuban +0.5 +108
Kuban/ Krasnodar draw +252
Both the Russian and Belarus games have totals shaded heavily towards the under 2.5 goals. Bookies were not expecting goals and the market still liked the numbers as such that they bet them down. Nobody is expecting a whole lot of goals in these games. BATE and Minsk have played 28 games combined this season. 21 of those stayed under 2.5 goals. And in Russia the last 6 games between Kuban and Krasnodar have stayed under. Therefore I'm not betting into the heavily shaded under, but found value in the handicap at +0.5 for both teams and the draw.
Big loss yesterday on the Arsenal game. They were clearly the better side overall, but made 2 mistakes and those were the 2 chances West Ham needed. Just variance at work, Arsenal is not going to lose many more of these types of games at home this season.
ytd-u: 13-12-3 for +6.53 units (last 1-3-0 for -2.45)
ytd-w: 16-16-4 for +6.34 units (last 2-6-0 for -4.70)
Supercup:
Sevilla ML +822 (half unit)
Sevilla +1 +176
- Please note that I don't have any indication or info which suggests Sevilla is going to dominate Barcelona. Barcelona in optima forma should normally beat Sevilla 2-0 or 3-1. The one thing that makes me place this bet is that Messi just had a busy summer, Neymar is sick and won't be playing and the team might not give a damn about this cup, after winning the treble last year. The price favours a drop on Sevilla. Especially because they're not playing in Spain.
Holland, Eredivisie:
As sure a thing as there is for today,
PSV -186 (2x)
PSV +108 1H
ytd-u: 17-14-3 for +9.88 units (last 4-2-0 for +3.35)
ytd-w: 20-18-4 for +9.69 units (last 4-2-0 for +3.35)
Holland, Eredivisie:
Heerenveen -183 (2x)
Heerenveen +114 1H
Holy shit,
With PSV leading 2-1, ADO get a free kick about 35 yards out. They're already in the 90'+4 minute. It's desperation time for them and their goaltender who is pretty tall leaves his goal and moves forward to maybe head the ball in. Free kick goes to him and he frigging back-heels the ball in. One of the goals of the year. Painful.
Here it is:
Premier League, UK:
Aston Villa +1 -133
ManUnited/ Aston Villa U2.5 -126
Ligue 1, France:
Lille/ Monaco U2
Lille/ Monaco draw +266
Nothing on the Bayern Munchen or Barcelona matches.
ytd-u: 19-15-3 for +10.78 units (last 2-1-0 for +0.90)
ytd-w: 24-22-4 for +9.37 units (last 4-4-0 for -0.32)
Premier League, UK:
Stoke City +0.5 +126
Newcastle United +0.5 -105
Leicester +236
Ligue1, France:
Guingamp +0.5 -130 (2x) (Olympique Lyon have not scored in 4 matches, trouble's brewing over there.)
Bundesliga, Germany:
Hoffenheim +1 +104
Werder Bremen +206
Borussia Monchengladbach +438 also +0.5/+1 -105
Holland, Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar +149
Den Haag +399
Ajax -1.5 +104
ytd-u: 19-15-3 for +15.44 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.66)
ytd-w: 24-22-4 for +14.03 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.66)
ytd-u: 26-20-5 for +18.69 units (last 4-5-1 for +3.25)
ytd-w: 31-28-6for +14.68 units (last 4-6-1 for +0.65)
*edit to record: units from yesterday were correct, but forgot to adjust the win-loss-push record. All is up to date now.
Bayer Leverkusen +170
Sporting Lisboa +100
Parlay:
Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 -205 with Manchester United -286 pays +101
Manchester United/ Newcastle United U2.5 +118
Newcastle United +1 +131
- ManU currently with a solid defense and dominating midfield, it's just in the attack that nothing is working, they're not even very dangerous up front. Going to ride these unders for a while until I see something else from them.
Aston Villa +0.5 -102
West Ham United +138
Tottenham Hotspur +178
Sunday
Everton +1 -138
Monaco +0.5 +103 and also +403
Valencia/ Monaco draw 1H +105
Basel -1 -129
Basel 1H +104
Shakhtar PK -149
multi-day parlays:
Basel/ Southampton +97
Basel/ Southampton/ Ajax +214
ytd-u: 27-21-5 for +18.69 units (last 1-1-0 for +0.00)
ytd-w: 32-29-6 for +13.68 units (last 1-2-0 for -1.00)
starts at noon (in 20 minutes):
Minsk +256
Astra Giurgiu +117
later:
Ajax -1 -115
Midtjylland +1.5 -138
parlay
Ajax/ Athletic Bilbao +142 (2x)
PSG -1 -120 (2x)
- PSG really should win this. They have a monster team this year. I like this price even with Ibrahimovic and Di Maria out, that's how good they are. I'm not going to bet the ML at -200 for 2 units. Been a victim of soccer's variance already a couple of times, most notably with Basel last wednesday and Arsenal a couple of weeks ago. 2 teams that totally dominated the game, but lost the bets anyway. That's why I decided to take the -1 handicap at -120. PSG should win, will most probably win and hopefully wins by 2 goals. If your bookie has PSG to keep a clean sheet at better than -140 is a good bet also.
Spain, La Liga:
Sevilla/ Malaga BTTS -140
wednesday results: 1-7 for -6.29
thursday results: 3-1-1 for +2.73
ytd-u: 31-23-6 for +22.42 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.73)
ytd-w: 36-37-7 for +10.12 units (last 3-1-1 for +2.73)
Everton +1 -138 pending,
Ajax -127
Barcelona -184
Real Madrid -1.5 -129
AS Monaco/ Valencia Ovr 2.5 goals +113
BTTS -117
starts in 5 minutes
Manchester United/ Club Brugge O2.5 -115
Bundesliga, Germany:
Shalke 04 +280 vs VFL Wolfsburg
Peresic and De Bruyne are out for Wolfsburg. Especially De Bruyne was their creative motor on midfield. He will be sorely missed.
Manchester United +115
later:
PSG -103 and also -1 +187
Juventus +177
Nice results so far!