Well, I put in the 5.92 limit order on Friday and it obviously expired today. What are your thoughts about taking a bigger position now that it's jumped to 6.40 (which obviously we're all thrilled about)? Should I wait to see if it comes down a bit or get some before it gets too high? Thanks.
AGEN keeps escalating! Thanks again for getting us on that.
Sam in answer to your question, AGEN is one even though it has close to tripled since I first mentioned it will most likely continue to move up into the teens. It is currently making multi year highs but has a lot still going for it and is in the camp of one of it's BP partner's making a bid for it at some point. With it's recent run up may wait for a pull back to the 7's but would continue to keep it on the radar.
If you go back, when OPK was 6-7/sh I stated that it would/could eventually get back to it's previous high of 19/sh well it hit that over a week or so ago and has retraced back to the 15 area...would expect it to continue to consolidate the gains and eventually take another run at that resistance level before eventually breaking it..
Regarding the interest rate discussion, the one thing that no one really knows yet is that the agencies especially GNMA, are not going to allow deferred payments on student loans to be counted out of debt qualifying ratio's come a few months. That IMO is going to be a huge factor in the housing market if nothing else changes and especially if the mortgage rates inch up a bit like they have the last few weeks...as Coops and Wraps allude to, the rate sensitivity of the economy is still fragile and with added problem with student loan debt (another debt forgiveness situation issue at some point IMO with this socialistic dependent majority that continues to develop in this country) not sure how long they will continue to "kick that can" down the road. So regarding TBT, not sure how much more gains in the short term it has left, with 10yr. yields having shot up close to 85 basis pts. from the lows in late Jan/early Feb (when it touched 1.65% area up to the recent high near 2.50% area) that is really the market adjusting ahead of the Fed which is typical, now if the Fed does play catch up you can say it is already "baked in the cake" and if the economic numbers don't continue "impress" would expect a retracement back to the 2-2.25% area. which would actually correlate to a decline in the value of the TBT from 50 level back to the 45 area.
Sorry for the late response but lately I'm only on the board about 3 times a week checking in due to current scheduling and temporarily not actively betting on a routine basis. While I'm at it though, my updated thoughts on MNKD. The recent short interest came out and it rose from 113 mill. short to an astonishing 131 mill. short, which as you know I've been in the camp that they continue to chase and get pounded. Currently, the interest rate the shorts are paying for borrowed shares is upwards of 80% while those putting their shares in the lending program (at least at Fidelity as mentioned previously in the thread) the rate of return currently is unbelievably around 32% and a bit lower at Schwab. The ingredients of what I still believe will be a squeeze when it has to be unwound are just increasing. The rise in S/P from the lows in early May to the high last week in the low 7's was some entity accumulating, the pullback this week is typical of relieving what was an extremely short term overbought situation...am expecting more consolidation here at these levels with volatility and then another run up to test the 8's and eventually tough resistance in the 10's. Ultimately, would expect that to be broken and would reassess the price targets at that point based on scripts and fundamentals such as how the convertible note is handled in Aug. as well as progress on other Technosphere products in the pipeline, etc.
Hope you all enjoy a safe and profitable summer! It sure is heating up here in Vegas
Yeah, read someone that knows and been following...I know he has been long and writes from that bias but he is on point with a lot of what he puts forth, the other one has been saying "would wait on the sidelines" at the end of every piece he puts out...so wait on the platform and watch the train pass me and move on w/o me.... No thanks!
As an fyi, spoke with a SNY rep and they assured me the company is 1000% behind the product and the Endo's they have seen are getting on board, the insurance has been a process but they are working with it everyday and have a great team in that area. The stock has been on the failure to deliver list for about 15 days now, so the shorts continue to scramble with the "shell game" via options...take a look at the open interest in the Jun expiration tomorrow at the 10 strike...they short against that position but it is getting tougher as the float continues to dry up...we'll talk more when I'm chomping on that steak either tonight or tomorrow...playing WSOP today, not sure what Okie is playing so we'll have to coordinate, dinner breaks have been 90 minutes so maybe the All American at Rio would work...their steaks are fine with me lol
One day I'm very little on the positive side but most times I'm on the negative side and it's the one sticking point that I said could happen months ago
As part of the agreement inked between Sanofi and MannKind, Sanofi has the potential to exit its license of Afrezza. If Sanofi were to decide to walk away from Afrezza, it could be a big blow. That's because Sanofi has a world-class marketing and sales team that's already deeply ingrained with doctors who treat diabetes thanks to Lantus, the planet's top-selling long-lasting insulin. If Sanofi can't successfully market Afrezza, then who can?
I said I was afraid of them pushing Afrezza to the side months ago and try again at a much later date. Now I love Reb like a brother from a different mother and will most likely have dinner tomorrow with Reb, Okie and the girls also and he's the expert I'm not near the class he's in with stocks but I have done alright with my in/out ways. If they didn't have a drug that is very popular with doctors and no problems with insurance company's then maybe I would feel differently. I think if something good happens and continues to happen and by October of this year with much better 3rd Quarter results. Last week all gains wipe out before you can toast MNKD. Sorry Reb it's how I feel and yes I'm not speaking with the knowledge you have but I read everything every day and read between the lines very well. I hope I'm so wrong because I'm still with you but something needs to happen by October this year or just hold and hope one day people will realize what a terrific drug it is.
This is a very well written article. Will toast MNKD tomorrow.
Reb,
What positions do you currently suggest to buy now if one has not bought any previous shares.
Is now a good time to buy MNKD?
Thanks!
The retesting (MNKD) on weak volume of the 200d moving avg. here looks like good entry if you didn't already take that position. As far as TBT, 10yr. yield currently retesting the high put in a bit over two weeks ago (6/10) @ 2.489...does not look as strong as the previous high right now so would wait to see if it can break that on decent strength...50d did cross the 200d but you want to make sure that it isn't a bear trap for the bond bears again. The thought is it can get back to 2.60 area and that would put a lid on the equity markets for this run to new highs. So the 52 area on TBT is currently testing that area again corresponding with the 10yr. yield retest....upside possible to 55 for this current uptrend if 10yr. makes that run to 2.60, so depends on your time horizon and whether or not you think there are better opportunities out there right now. GL
This is a great little company. Now is the time to search the oil patch for stocks with beaten down share prices, that are debt-free, and well run. They will pay you handsomely in the long run.
Look at XOOM June 4 19.81 today june 18th 22.50 still good but I'll be gone at $25 in about 3 weeks.
Good-Bye XOOM A little over 10k in a month $19.81 June 4th $25.24 July 2nd 2k Shares almost 11k in less that a month. In/out spend the money while you can. Daddy way is long gone. Next Up JBL have own this before. Got in a little late this morning and bought 1/2 of usual and will buy the other half on a DIP $25 maybe 3 months. Hopefully
I bought some CHK yesterday. I know its been viewed as an underachiever, but I think there is decent growth potential in the coming yr. Certainly buying low, so Ill take the risk.
I bought some CHK yesterday. I know its been viewed as an underachiever, but I think there is decent growth potential in the coming yr. Certainly buying low, so Ill take the risk.
any thoughts appreciated.
I wish you luck with CHK, but the short interest has been heading up-- and I don't think they're wrong. CHK needs at least $80-90 oil to get back to where they were. To me, the key right now is finding oil companies with very little debt. They all need to be able to cut back production-- why sell at these prices -- keep your product in the ground, and sell just enough to meet your needs. A lot of companies-- especially those with high debt-- can't do this.
This is the things you say when your the spoke person for a company that is selling it's product below expectations. Does he have reason other then he's most likely shorten the stock. I don't know maybe I'm just a regular guy like most people that bought into this company and see no reason why this had to be said. Seems like they we're prepare for a Q&A also or did they think nobody was going to ask questions.
The catalyst for the summer decline may be attributed to comments made by the company's CFO on June 10 that "we're not there yet" with its inhaled insulin product Afrezza. On that same day, the company was not very convincing when tough questions were posed to the management regarding the main drug in its pipeline. The two days following the renewed skepticism over Afrezza's success, the issue fell from its June 9 close ($6.70) to $5.71 on June 11.
That's what happens when you TRADE off of statements taken out of context....I INVEST on long term fundamentals and TRADE off of technicals. Here's some statements taken in context that serve the longer term fundamentals for this product and company. Truth is a fact and these users are speaking the truth when it comes to their best ever life changing results from the product:
MannKind's Afrezza: Early Adopters’ Confirms its Advantages
• Almost Six Months Have Passed Since Afrezza Became Available To Early Adopters.
• Early Adopters’ experiences have confirmed and in many respects exceeded Al Mann’s predictions and observations in the past that Afrezza is far superior (than RAAs (rapid-acting analog insulin)) in controlling blood sugar for diabetics.
Even though it took about 10 years and $1 billion personally investment from Al Mann himself for Mannkind to get Afrezza approved by FDA, Al Mann has always remained confident that Afrezza will be a paradigm-shifting product for diabetics in the prandial insulin market due to its many advantages over RAAs.
Six months after Afrezza was released into the market, the early adopters’ experiences of Afrezza have confirmed that Afrezza has plenty of advantages (over RAAs), including, among other things, the following:
• Better A1Cs
• More time-in-zone
• Peak action in 15 minutes (Fast acting in correcting BG highs)
• Action finished in 90 minutes (No worry about IOB or insulin stacking)
• Less hypos
• Precise dosing not required (and no complex Carb Counting needed)
• Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
• Reduce risks for complications
• Reduce burden of managing diabetes
• Reduce burden of family members
• Device the size of a whistle – discreet and easy to carry around
• No needles - inhaled
• Help lose weight
• Pump Free Freedom
• Other advantages (no smell, no taste; it's real human insulin - not an modified analogue; likely lead to better compliance)
1. Better A1Cs
Look at Gustavo Basualdo’s result before and after Afrezza—from 6.5 to 5.4 in 90 days.
In the Type 1 Afrezza Users “Real Life” Results Group as reported by Sam Finta, per Sam, “all nine of us have achieved lifetime best A1C with much less effort and a tremendously higher quality of life than we ever have before. And every single one of us have posted our official lab reports from our doctors’ offices to be fully transparent in all our results for whoever may be looking at this–doctor’s, diabetes educators, etc. Funny thing is we are all so different. We live in different parts of the country, we’re different ages, professions, backgrounds, and we all had varying starting A1C’s (from 10.2 to 6.5) before beginning Afrezza. Yet, within 3 months’ time,
ALL OF US have achieved a “Lifetime Best” A1C on Afrezza!”
Look at Brian Sharp’s BG level over one week. He was able to stay between 60-150 on his blood sugars for 100% of the time. He had ZERO severe or moderate lows and finished the week with an average blood sugar number of 99.
Here is what Amy Tenderich says regarding time in the zone:
“Simply put, Afrezza is helping me spend more time in range. My CGM screen now rarely shows the little dotted line going outside the borders of yellow for too-high and red for too-low. I’ve had whole days that remained in the white zone. And I’ve managed to do both a spin class and aerobics class starting at a “normal” blood sugar (100-ish) and ending there as well!”
This means Afrezza is superfast in correcting high BGs. Here is what Laura Kronen says regarding this: “Afrezza brought down a high blood sugar from 329 to 140 in 45 minutes. That would have taken me 3+ hours on [RAA] insulin.”
Because of Afrezza’s distinctive fast-in and fast-out Pharmacokinetics, one needs not to worry about insulin on board or stacking of insulin. Here is what Gustavo Basualdo says regarding this: “as with any fast acting insulin, exercise has a big impact. If I have a BG of 150, I’ll take 4 units, wait 15 minutes and do a 100 jumping jacks. My BG will drop like a rock, but Afrezza stops working so fast, by the time it gets around 100 or so it will be done and level out.”
Here is what Brian Sharp says regarding this: “I am also an avid scuba diver and underwater photographer. With Afrezza, I don’t have to dive with high BG levels or be in fear of crashing. I don’t need to take Afrezza three hours prior to a dive to assure that it’s all gone from my system before I get in the water. I am an experienced deep water diver, cold water, high-altitude, cave diver, wrecks, and night dives. Getting low on any of those types of dives could be fatal and endanger others, so control is paramount.”
Study indicates that Afrezza causes less hypos than RAAs do. In the phase III trial (Trial 171), the Afrezza arm has 30% less hypos and 43% less severe hypos.
The experience of early adopters of Afrezza confirms this. Here is what Howard says regarding this: “Still zero severe hypos which is a huge stress relief. Huge spikes in the 200s are a thing of the past. I will never see a 300 again.”
Here are what Ana Ortiz and Bill Kinder say regarding this:
“ALEX: Have you seen any effects of Afrezza on hypoglycemia?
BILL (T2): I set a good lower limit of 70 mg/dl on my CGM and I’ve never had any hypoglycemic issues. I’m lower than I used to be and that’s a good thing, but it’s a little different because I’m used to having higher blood sugar.
ANA (T1): It’s definitely helped with the hyperglycemia. Sometimes I’ll have low blood sugars with Afrezza, but it’s not as extreme – it’s not in the 50’s [mg/dl] anymore. With Afrezza, the lowest I’ve seen is 68 mg/dl or somewhere in the 70s, and it's not as frequent.”
6. Precise dosing not required (and no Carb Counting)
Here is what Amy Tenderich says on this issue: “In this 2009 interview I did with Al Mann (http://www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/the-truth-about-afresa-inhalable-insulin-a-chat-with-al-mann#2), Al Mann explained that Afrezza essentially "turns off glucogenesis" so no glucose is secreted from the liver in reaction to food. For that reason, people with type 2 can use a set dose of Afrezza for meals and run essentially zero risk of lows no matter what the meal size, whereas type 1s “will still have the issue (of lows) if they dose and don't eat anything… and if they eat a large meal, they'll need a larger dose.”
“The advantage for all patients is that they won't have to do carb counting or anything, because Afrezza does not have to be so precisely matched to food intake,” he adds.
This, my friends, has proven 100% true for me, and it’s a HUGE life improvement to be relieved of all that math (and S.W.A.G. guessing).”
7. Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
Because of the fast-in and fast-out and less hypo prone features of Afrezza, Afrezza has enable users to eat more spontaneously and enjoy greater varieties of food.
Here what Gustavo says regarding this: “First impromptu frozen yogurt ever. EVER.”
Here is what a user (of Afrezza) on Tudiabetes.org says regarding this: “Got my first A1C since using afrezza as my primary bolus insulin--- 5.3. I'll take it. …. My previous a1c was 5.2, so essentially no change with afrezza... But I tried about 10% as hard and very much expanded the types of foods I was willing to eat.”
This is what I like reading and it's easy to find and it's not the first time I read this but I thought I would save you the trouble of looking. I read this acticule at least 3/4 times.
The natural next step would require the inclusion of the rest of MannKind, taking into consideration all of the revenues, expenses, and potential associated with Technosphere, along with the remaining organization. We have very little idea of how developments with the drug delivery platform are going to unfold, however, which is critical to being able to assign some value to the technology. As such, for the purposes of this exercise, we are going to go the Theravance route, whereby we will separate the JV, calling it MannKind Corporation (MC), from the R&D operation, which well call MannKind Technologies (MT). The MT spinoff, into a publicly traded entity, would take most of the cash on hand to fund ongoing developments. Management of that entity should also be able to access the capital markets, if necessary, just like most other development-stage biotechs. MC, meanwhile, would essentially be a royalty managemententerprise, receiving the profit sharing proceeds from the JV. Operating expenses would be minimal. As well, much of its income would be sheltered from taxation for some time to come since the separation would leave all of the $2 billion-plus accumulated losses on its balance sheet. Note, too, that the manufacturing operation is essentially a non-factor on earnings since all costs are fully reimbursed and washes through the JVs P&L.
The scenario detailed above would have current MNKD investors holding stock in MC and MT in a few years. Its all but impossible to value MT at this juncture, but the company would most certainly be additive to the total. As for the MC component, readers are free to make all sorts of adjustments to our projections, including the time line, and assign their own multiples to sales and earnings. But almost any reasonable multiple would produce a stock price thats considerably above the current price. A Price/Earnings ratio of 20, for instance, which can clearly be characterized as reasonable for a company whose earnings are still rising strongly, would produce a price north of $40. A multiple of 10-times sales, which is the valuation being given Novo Nordisk, which is the closest thing to a pure play in the diabetes sector, would also suggest that MNKD stock offers considerable upside potential, even excluding MT.
Sanofi will not be abandoning Afrezza anytime soon, so investors should jettison this concern from their big portfolio of anxieties. The rapidly approaching debt maturity is probably of little concern, too, as the company has multiple relatively painless alternatives to meet its obligations. To go a little further, we think MNKD stockholders should stop obsessing about the weekly prescription data and every minute-to-minute tick of the stock price. Sanofis game plan is undoubtedly measured in years, as evident in the data for Lantus, and it has an impressive history of marketing new products, unlike all of us armchair experts who are disappointed with every weekly scripts figure. With regards to the stock price, its abundantly clear, from changes in the short interest, changes in the number of shares available for shorting on a daily basis, and changes in the interest rate being charged/paid to borrow shares, that the short sellers remain a major factor in the daily fluctuations. The day-to-day changes are of little consequence to
As to our back-of-the-envelope calculation, it is clearly simplistic and subject to multiple adjustments. Moreover, like all of our other valuation exercises, detailed in previous articles, the scenario painted above is predicated on the opening assumption that sales of Afrezza will be robust. That said, the latest exercise is probably no less predictive than the sophisticated models put out by Wall Street analysts, who have been known to halve their projections at the proverbial drop of a hat. All in all, we continue to believe that MNKD shares offer a compelling risk/reward proposition.
This article is written by George Rho and was originally published on Seeking Alpha. The author is long MNKD and SNY.
Like I said I'm no expert but the market is so manipulated that it gave you a taste the shorts came in with more and made more. The high intrest rate hasn't seem to bother them. It goes to $15 by the end of the year or even up to the first quarter next year you got 2 steaks one to eat and one to take home. This author keeps putting up the same articule and he's long in MNKD and SNY. Hang in there that was something custer said to his man and can you believe they had Custer in charge. Just breaking your balls but I'm not going away till I get my money that's how I was brought up. lol
That's what happens when you TRADE off of statements taken out of context....I INVEST on long term fundamentals and TRADE off of technicals. Here's some statements taken in context that serve the longer term fundamentals for this product and company. Truth is a fact and these users are speaking the truth when it comes to their best ever life changing results from the product:
MannKind's Afrezza: Early Adopters’ Confirms its Advantages
• Almost Six Months Have Passed Since Afrezza Became Available To Early Adopters.
• Early Adopters’ experiences have confirmed and in many respects exceeded Al Mann’s predictions and observations in the past that Afrezza is far superior (than RAAs (rapid-acting analog insulin)) in controlling blood sugar for diabetics.
Even though it took about 10 years and $1 billion personally investment from Al Mann himself for Mannkind to get Afrezza approved by FDA, Al Mann has always remained confident that Afrezza will be a paradigm-shifting product for diabetics in the prandial insulin market due to its many advantages over RAAs.
Six months after Afrezza was released into the market, the early adopters’ experiences of Afrezza have confirmed that Afrezza has plenty of advantages (over RAAs), including, among other things, the following:
• Better A1Cs
• More time-in-zone
• Peak action in 15 minutes (Fast acting in correcting BG highs)
• Action finished in 90 minutes (No worry about IOB or insulin stacking)
• Less hypos
• Precise dosing not required (and no complex Carb Counting needed)
• Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
• Reduce risks for complications
• Reduce burden of managing diabetes
• Reduce burden of family members
• Device the size of a whistle – discreet and easy to carry around
• No needles - inhaled
• Help lose weight
• Pump Free Freedom
• Other advantages (no smell, no taste; it's real human insulin - not an modified analogue; likely lead to better compliance)
1. Better A1Cs
Look at Gustavo Basualdo’s result before and after Afrezza—from 6.5 to 5.4 in 90 days.
In the Type 1 Afrezza Users “Real Life” Results Group as reported by Sam Finta, per Sam, “all nine of us have achieved lifetime best A1C with much less effort and a tremendously higher quality of life than we ever have before. And every single one of us have posted our official lab reports from our doctors’ offices to be fully transparent in all our results for whoever may be looking at this–doctor’s, diabetes educators, etc. Funny thing is we are all so different. We live in different parts of the country, we’re different ages, professions, backgrounds, and we all had varying starting A1C’s (from 10.2 to 6.5) before beginning Afrezza. Yet, within 3 months’ time,
ALL OF US have achieved a “Lifetime Best” A1C on Afrezza!”
Look at Brian Sharp’s BG level over one week. He was able to stay between 60-150 on his blood sugars for 100% of the time. He had ZERO severe or moderate lows and finished the week with an average blood sugar number of 99.
Here is what Amy Tenderich says regarding time in the zone:
“Simply put, Afrezza is helping me spend more time in range. My CGM screen now rarely shows the little dotted line going outside the borders of yellow for too-high and red for too-low. I’ve had whole days that remained in the white zone. And I’ve managed to do both a spin class and aerobics class starting at a “normal” blood sugar (100-ish) and ending there as well!”
This means Afrezza is superfast in correcting high BGs. Here is what Laura Kronen says regarding this: “Afrezza brought down a high blood sugar from 329 to 140 in 45 minutes. That would have taken me 3+ hours on [RAA] insulin.”
Because of Afrezza’s distinctive fast-in and fast-out Pharmacokinetics, one needs not to worry about insulin on board or stacking of insulin. Here is what Gustavo Basualdo says regarding this: “as with any fast acting insulin, exercise has a big impact. If I have a BG of 150, I’ll take 4 units, wait 15 minutes and do a 100 jumping jacks. My BG will drop like a rock, but Afrezza stops working so fast, by the time it gets around 100 or so it will be done and level out.”
Here is what Brian Sharp says regarding this: “I am also an avid scuba diver and underwater photographer. With Afrezza, I don’t have to dive with high BG levels or be in fear of crashing. I don’t need to take Afrezza three hours prior to a dive to assure that it’s all gone from my system before I get in the water. I am an experienced deep water diver, cold water, high-altitude, cave diver, wrecks, and night dives. Getting low on any of those types of dives could be fatal and endanger others, so control is paramount.”
Study indicates that Afrezza causes less hypos than RAAs do. In the phase III trial (Trial 171), the Afrezza arm has 30% less hypos and 43% less severe hypos.
The experience of early adopters of Afrezza confirms this. Here is what Howard says regarding this: “Still zero severe hypos which is a huge stress relief. Huge spikes in the 200s are a thing of the past. I will never see a 300 again.”
Here are what Ana Ortiz and Bill Kinder say regarding this:
“ALEX: Have you seen any effects of Afrezza on hypoglycemia?
BILL (T2): I set a good lower limit of 70 mg/dl on my CGM and I’ve never had any hypoglycemic issues. I’m lower than I used to be and that’s a good thing, but it’s a little different because I’m used to having higher blood sugar.
ANA (T1): It’s definitely helped with the hyperglycemia. Sometimes I’ll have low blood sugars with Afrezza, but it’s not as extreme – it’s not in the 50’s [mg/dl] anymore. With Afrezza, the lowest I’ve seen is 68 mg/dl or somewhere in the 70s, and it's not as frequent.”
6. Precise dosing not required (and no Carb Counting)
Here is what Amy Tenderich says on this issue: “In this 2009 interview I did with Al Mann (http://www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/the-truth-about-afresa-inhalable-insulin-a-chat-with-al-mann#2), Al Mann explained that Afrezza essentially "turns off glucogenesis" so no glucose is secreted from the liver in reaction to food. For that reason, people with type 2 can use a set dose of Afrezza for meals and run essentially zero risk of lows no matter what the meal size, whereas type 1s “will still have the issue (of lows) if they dose and don't eat anything… and if they eat a large meal, they'll need a larger dose.”
“The advantage for all patients is that they won't have to do carb counting or anything, because Afrezza does not have to be so precisely matched to food intake,” he adds.
This, my friends, has proven 100% true for me, and it’s a HUGE life improvement to be relieved of all that math (and S.W.A.G. guessing).”
7. Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
Because of the fast-in and fast-out and less hypo prone features of Afrezza, Afrezza has enable users to eat more spontaneously and enjoy greater varieties of food.
Here what Gustavo says regarding this: “First impromptu frozen yogurt ever. EVER.”
Here is what a user (of Afrezza) on Tudiabetes.org says regarding this: “Got my first A1C since using afrezza as my primary bolus insulin--- 5.3. I'll take it. …. My previous a1c was 5.2, so essentially no change with afrezza... But I tried about 10% as hard and very much expanded the types of foods I was willing to eat.”
I know you know what your talking about but it just seems hard to convince people (The Masses) that it's better hopefully someday soon. My son doesn't even know about it and loves the pump.
Comments
Am I missing something? I thought others would be more excited about this play.
Am I missing something? I thought others would be more excited about this play.
Sam in answer to your question, AGEN is one even though it has close to tripled since I first mentioned it will most likely continue to move up into the teens. It is currently making multi year highs but has a lot still going for it and is in the camp of one of it's BP partner's making a bid for it at some point. With it's recent run up may wait for a pull back to the 7's but would continue to keep it on the radar.
If you go back, when OPK was 6-7/sh I stated that it would/could eventually get back to it's previous high of 19/sh well it hit that over a week or so ago and has retraced back to the 15 area...would expect it to continue to consolidate the gains and eventually take another run at that resistance level before eventually breaking it..
Regarding the interest rate discussion, the one thing that no one really knows yet is that the agencies especially GNMA, are not going to allow deferred payments on student loans to be counted out of debt qualifying ratio's come a few months. That IMO is going to be a huge factor in the housing market if nothing else changes and especially if the mortgage rates inch up a bit like they have the last few weeks...as Coops and Wraps allude to, the rate sensitivity of the economy is still fragile and with added problem with student loan debt (another debt forgiveness situation issue at some point IMO with this socialistic dependent majority that continues to develop in this country) not sure how long they will continue to "kick that can" down the road. So regarding TBT, not sure how much more gains in the short term it has left, with 10yr. yields having shot up close to 85 basis pts. from the lows in late Jan/early Feb (when it touched 1.65% area up to the recent high near 2.50% area) that is really the market adjusting ahead of the Fed which is typical, now if the Fed does play catch up you can say it is already "baked in the cake" and if the economic numbers don't continue "impress" would expect a retracement back to the 2-2.25% area. which would actually correlate to a decline in the value of the TBT from 50 level back to the 45 area.
Sorry for the late response but lately I'm only on the board about 3 times a week checking in due to current scheduling and temporarily not actively betting on a routine basis. While I'm at it though, my updated thoughts on MNKD. The recent short interest came out and it rose from 113 mill. short to an astonishing 131 mill. short, which as you know I've been in the camp that they continue to chase and get pounded. Currently, the interest rate the shorts are paying for borrowed shares is upwards of 80% while those putting their shares in the lending program (at least at Fidelity as mentioned previously in the thread) the rate of return currently is unbelievably around 32% and a bit lower at Schwab. The ingredients of what I still believe will be a squeeze when it has to be unwound are just increasing. The rise in S/P from the lows in early May to the high last week in the low 7's was some entity accumulating, the pullback this week is typical of relieving what was an extremely short term overbought situation...am expecting more consolidation here at these levels with volatility and then another run up to test the 8's and eventually tough resistance in the 10's. Ultimately, would expect that to be broken and would reassess the price targets at that point based on scripts and fundamentals such as how the convertible note is handled in Aug. as well as progress on other Technosphere products in the pipeline, etc.
Hope you all enjoy a safe and profitable summer! It sure is heating up here in Vegas
Interest rates have to rise sooner or later, I plan on holding this long term and I know I will eventually make money.
Do you not agree?
BTW, I'm planning on buying some MNKD within a week.
Any opinions.
Looking at SLW and SLV, it can't stay this low for a long time, can it?
Yeah, read someone that knows and been following...I know he has been long and writes from that bias but he is on point with a lot of what he puts forth, the other one has been saying "would wait on the sidelines" at the end of every piece he puts out...so wait on the platform and watch the train pass me and move on w/o me.... No thanks!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3266715-launching-mannkinds-afrezza-sanofis-4-laws-of-success?auth_param=1od6j:1ao4v4j:0a3b9120b2aa38ef9f9eb1cc08396505&uprof=45
As an fyi, spoke with a SNY rep and they assured me the company is 1000% behind the product and the Endo's they have seen are getting on board, the insurance has been a process but they are working with it everyday and have a great team in that area. The stock has been on the failure to deliver list for about 15 days now, so the shorts continue to scramble with the "shell game" via options...take a look at the open interest in the Jun expiration tomorrow at the 10 strike...they short against that position but it is getting tougher as the float continues to dry up...we'll talk more when I'm chomping on that steak either tonight or tomorrow...playing WSOP today, not sure what Okie is playing so we'll have to coordinate, dinner breaks have been 90 minutes so maybe the All American at Rio would work...their steaks are fine with me
I'm going to buy some TBT at about 50, sooner or later rates will rise.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3261995-a-detailed-look-at-china-techfaiths-real-estate-assets
What positions do you currently suggest to buy now if one has not bought any previous shares.
Is now a good time to buy MNKD?
Thanks!
One day I'm very little on the positive side but most times I'm on the negative side and it's the one sticking point that I said could happen months ago
As part of the agreement inked between Sanofi and MannKind, Sanofi has the potential to exit its license of Afrezza. If Sanofi were to decide to walk away from Afrezza, it could be a big blow. That's because Sanofi has a world-class marketing and sales team that's already deeply ingrained with doctors who treat diabetes thanks to Lantus, the planet's top-selling long-lasting insulin. If Sanofi can't successfully market Afrezza, then who can?
I said I was afraid of them pushing Afrezza to the side months ago and try again at a much later date. Now I love Reb like a brother from a different mother and will most likely have dinner tomorrow with Reb, Okie and the girls also and he's the expert I'm not near the class he's in with stocks but I have done alright with my in/out ways. If they didn't have a drug that is very popular with doctors and no problems with insurance company's then maybe I would feel differently. I think if something good happens and continues to happen and by October of this year with much better 3rd Quarter results. Last week all gains wipe out before you can toast MNKD. Sorry Reb it's how I feel and yes I'm not speaking with the knowledge you have but I read everything every day and read between the lines very well. I hope I'm so wrong because I'm still with you but something needs to happen by October this year or just hold and hope one day people will realize what a terrific drug it is.
This is a very well written article. Will toast MNKD tomorrow.
There seems to be a lot of insiders buying this.
Any thoughts?
There seems to be a lot of insiders buying this.
Any thoughts?
The retesting (MNKD) on weak volume of the 200d moving avg. here looks like good entry if you didn't already take that position. As far as TBT, 10yr. yield currently retesting the high put in a bit over two weeks ago (6/10) @ 2.489...does not look as strong as the previous high right now so would wait to see if it can break that on decent strength...50d did cross the 200d but you want to make sure that it isn't a bear trap for the bond bears again. The thought is it can get back to 2.60 area and that would put a lid on the equity markets for this run to new highs. So the 52 area on TBT is currently testing that area again corresponding with the 10yr. yield retest....upside possible to 55 for this current uptrend if 10yr. makes that run to 2.60, so depends on your time horizon and whether or not you think there are better opportunities out there right now. GL
Thinking of buying some at .31
To my understanding in recent history about 90% of these mining companies trading in Canada are scams. Stay away trust me.
Greece to Default on $1.73 Billion IMF Payment http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-union-prepares-for-potential-fallout-from-greek-bank-shutdown-1435573213
Embarrassing Bounced Check From Greece Taped Up In IMF Headquarters
CIwfSBkUAAEoC1b.jpg
Don't think for a moment that it can't happen here because it can and a much faster rate. Bunker Time LOL
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sundance-energy-australia-limited-enters-164028088.html
This is a great little company. Now is the time to search the oil patch for stocks with beaten down share prices, that are debt-free, and well run. They will pay you handsomely in the long run.
Currently long--
SDCJF
ZARFF
TBTEF
ATXDY
LVLEF
AXAS
http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2015/07/01/airline-stocks-tank-on-doj-investigation-report/
Good-Bye XOOM A little over 10k in a month $19.81 June 4th $25.24 July 2nd 2k Shares almost 11k in less that a month. In/out spend the money while you can. Daddy way is long gone. Next Up JBL have own this before. Got in a little late this morning and bought 1/2 of usual and will buy the other half on a DIP $25 maybe 3 months. Hopefully
I bought some CHK yesterday. I know its been viewed as an underachiever, but I think there is decent growth potential in the coming yr. Certainly buying low, so Ill take the risk.
any thoughts appreciated.
I wish you luck with CHK, but the short interest has been heading up-- and I don't think they're wrong. CHK needs at least $80-90 oil to get back to where they were. To me, the key right now is finding oil companies with very little debt. They all need to be able to cut back production-- why sell at these prices -- keep your product in the ground, and sell just enough to meet your needs. A lot of companies-- especially those with high debt-- can't do this.
Just my penny's worth.
The catalyst for the summer decline may be attributed to comments made by the company's CFO on June 10 that "we're not there yet" with its inhaled insulin product Afrezza. On that same day, the company was not very convincing when tough questions were posed to the management regarding the main drug in its pipeline. The two days following the renewed skepticism over Afrezza's success, the issue fell from its June 9 close ($6.70) to $5.71 on June 11.
MannKind's Afrezza: Early Adopters’ Confirms its Advantages
Link for entire article that will be posted:
http://mnkd.proboards.com/thread/3078/mannkinds-afrezza-adopters-confirms-advantages
Summary
• Almost Six Months Have Passed Since Afrezza Became Available To Early Adopters.
• Early Adopters’ experiences have confirmed and in many respects exceeded Al Mann’s predictions and observations in the past that Afrezza is far superior (than RAAs (rapid-acting analog insulin)) in controlling blood sugar for diabetics.
Even though it took about 10 years and $1 billion personally investment from Al Mann himself for Mannkind to get Afrezza approved by FDA, Al Mann has always remained confident that Afrezza will be a paradigm-shifting product for diabetics in the prandial insulin market due to its many advantages over RAAs.
Six months after Afrezza was released into the market, the early adopters’ experiences of Afrezza have confirmed that Afrezza has plenty of advantages (over RAAs), including, among other things, the following:
• Better A1Cs
• More time-in-zone
• Peak action in 15 minutes (Fast acting in correcting BG highs)
• Action finished in 90 minutes (No worry about IOB or insulin stacking)
• Less hypos
• Precise dosing not required (and no complex Carb Counting needed)
• Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
• Reduce risks for complications
• Reduce burden of managing diabetes
• Reduce burden of family members
• Device the size of a whistle – discreet and easy to carry around
• No needles - inhaled
• Help lose weight
• Pump Free Freedom
• Other advantages (no smell, no taste; it's real human insulin - not an modified analogue; likely lead to better compliance)
1. Better A1Cs
Look at Gustavo Basualdo’s result before and after Afrezza—from 6.5 to 5.4 in 90 days.
afrezzauser.com/week-17-afrezza-produces-non-diabetic-a1c/
In the Type 1 Afrezza Users “Real Life” Results Group as reported by Sam Finta, per Sam, “all nine of us have achieved lifetime best A1C with much less effort and a tremendously higher quality of life than we ever have before. And every single one of us have posted our official lab reports from our doctors’ offices to be fully transparent in all our results for whoever may be looking at this–doctor’s, diabetes educators, etc. Funny thing is we are all so different. We live in different parts of the country, we’re different ages, professions, backgrounds, and we all had varying starting A1C’s (from 10.2 to 6.5) before beginning Afrezza. Yet, within 3 months’ time,
ALL OF US have achieved a “Lifetime Best” A1C on Afrezza!”
afrezzauser.com/week-17-afrezza-produces-non-diabetic-a1c/
2. More time in the zone
Look at Brian Sharp’s BG level over one week. He was able to stay between 60-150 on his blood sugars for 100% of the time. He had ZERO severe or moderate lows and finished the week with an average blood sugar number of 99.
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Here is what Amy Tenderich says regarding time in the zone:
“Simply put, Afrezza is helping me spend more time in range. My CGM screen now rarely shows the little dotted line going outside the borders of yellow for too-high and red for too-low. I’ve had whole days that remained in the white zone. And I’ve managed to do both a spin class and aerobics class starting at a “normal” blood sugar (100-ish) and ending there as well!”
www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/amazing-afrezza-non-invasive-insulin-works#2
3. Peak action in 15 minutes (Fast acting in correcting BG highs)
With Afrezza, maximum concentration in blood reached within 12 to 15 minutes.
www.afrezzapro.com/afrezza-action-profile
This means Afrezza is superfast in correcting high BGs. Here is what Laura Kronen says regarding this: “Afrezza brought down a high blood sugar from 329 to 140 in 45 minutes. That would have taken me 3+ hours on [RAA] insulin.”
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Think about it, if you are a diabetic and is having a high blood sugar of 329, would you prefer it to come down in 45 minutes or 3+ hours?
4. Action finished in 90 minutes (No worry about IOB or insulin stacking)
With Afrezza, maximum concentration in blood reached within 12 to 15 minutes and declined to baseline by approximately 180 minutes (see chart above).
www.afrezzapro.com/afrezza-action-profile
Because of Afrezza’s distinctive fast-in and fast-out Pharmacokinetics, one needs not to worry about insulin on board or stacking of insulin. Here is what Gustavo Basualdo says regarding this: “as with any fast acting insulin, exercise has a big impact. If I have a BG of 150, I’ll take 4 units, wait 15 minutes and do a 100 jumping jacks. My BG will drop like a rock, but Afrezza stops working so fast, by the time it gets around 100 or so it will be done and level out.”
afrezzauser.com/afrezza-journey/
“Had a post lunch spike. Is my afternoon bike session ruined due to post correcting insulin pooling? Not with #afrezza.”
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Here is what Brian Sharp says regarding this: “I am also an avid scuba diver and underwater photographer. With Afrezza, I don’t have to dive with high BG levels or be in fear of crashing. I don’t need to take Afrezza three hours prior to a dive to assure that it’s all gone from my system before I get in the water. I am an experienced deep water diver, cold water, high-altitude, cave diver, wrecks, and night dives. Getting low on any of those types of dives could be fatal and endanger others, so control is paramount.”
www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/how-afrezza-changing-life-type-1-diabetic-pilot#3
5. Less hypos
Study indicates that Afrezza causes less hypos than RAAs do. In the phase III trial (Trial 171), the Afrezza arm has 30% less hypos and 43% less severe hypos.
www.medscape.org/viewarticle/845829?src=sttwit
The experience of early adopters of Afrezza confirms this. Here is what Howard says regarding this: “Still zero severe hypos which is a huge stress relief. Huge spikes in the 200s are a thing of the past. I will never see a 300 again.”
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Here are what Ana Ortiz and Bill Kinder say regarding this:
“ALEX: Have you seen any effects of Afrezza on hypoglycemia?
BILL (T2): I set a good lower limit of 70 mg/dl on my CGM and I’ve never had any hypoglycemic issues. I’m lower than I used to be and that’s a good thing, but it’s a little different because I’m used to having higher blood sugar.
ANA (T1): It’s definitely helped with the hyperglycemia. Sometimes I’ll have low blood sugars with Afrezza, but it’s not as extreme – it’s not in the 50’s [mg/dl] anymore. With Afrezza, the lowest I’ve seen is 68 mg/dl or somewhere in the 70s, and it's not as frequent.”
diatribe.org/inhaled-insulin-afrezza-real-deal#sthash.vkBZ1tmL.dpuf
6. Precise dosing not required (and no Carb Counting)
Here is what Amy Tenderich says on this issue: “In this 2009 interview I did with Al Mann (http://www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/the-truth-about-afresa-inhalable-insulin-a-chat-with-al-mann#2), Al Mann explained that Afrezza essentially "turns off glucogenesis" so no glucose is secreted from the liver in reaction to food. For that reason, people with type 2 can use a set dose of Afrezza for meals and run essentially zero risk of lows no matter what the meal size, whereas type 1s “will still have the issue (of lows) if they dose and don't eat anything… and if they eat a large meal, they'll need a larger dose.”
“The advantage for all patients is that they won't have to do carb counting or anything, because Afrezza does not have to be so precisely matched to food intake,” he adds.
This, my friends, has proven 100% true for me, and it’s a HUGE life improvement to be relieved of all that math (and S.W.A.G. guessing).”
www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/amazing-afrezza-non-invasive-insulin-works#2
Here is what Brian Sharp says regarding this: “I don’t count carbs…. I don’t fixate much of my day controlling my diabetes.”
afrezzauser.com/afrezza-delivers-low-a1c/
Here is what Jackie says this: “Larger meals, I take an 8u, smaller meals I take a 4u. Its that easy. Every now and then a follow up dose.”
afrezzauser.com/afrezza-journey/
7. Spontaneousness (meaning one can enjoy more varieties of Food (and in general, life))
Because of the fast-in and fast-out and less hypo prone features of Afrezza, Afrezza has enable users to eat more spontaneously and enjoy greater varieties of food.
Here what Gustavo says regarding this: “First impromptu frozen yogurt ever. EVER.”
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Here is what a user (of Afrezza) on Tudiabetes.org says regarding this: “Got my first A1C since using afrezza as my primary bolus insulin--- 5.3. I'll take it. …. My previous a1c was 5.2, so essentially no change with afrezza... But I tried about 10% as hard and very much expanded the types of foods I was willing to eat.”
www.tudiabetes.org/forum/t/i-started-on-afrezza-last-night/23316/239
Read more: http://mnkd.proboards.com/thread/3078/mannkinds-afrezza-adopters-confirms-advantages#ixzz3h7L2adnG
The natural next step would require the inclusion of the rest of MannKind, taking into consideration all of the revenues, expenses, and potential associated with Technosphere, along with the remaining organization. We have very little idea of how developments with the drug delivery platform are going to unfold, however, which is critical to being able to assign some value to the technology. As such, for the purposes of this exercise, we are going to go the Theravance route, whereby we will separate the JV, calling it MannKind Corporation (MC), from the R&D operation, which well call MannKind Technologies (MT). The MT spinoff, into a publicly traded entity, would take most of the cash on hand to fund ongoing developments. Management of that entity should also be able to access the capital markets, if necessary, just like most other development-stage biotechs. MC, meanwhile, would essentially be a royalty managemententerprise, receiving the profit sharing proceeds from the JV. Operating expenses would be minimal. As well, much of its income would be sheltered from taxation for some time to come since the separation would leave all of the $2 billion-plus accumulated losses on its balance sheet. Note, too, that the manufacturing operation is essentially a non-factor on earnings since all costs are fully reimbursed and washes through the JVs P&L.
The scenario detailed above would have current MNKD investors holding stock in MC and MT in a few years. Its all but impossible to value MT at this juncture, but the company would most certainly be additive to the total. As for the MC component, readers are free to make all sorts of adjustments to our projections, including the time line, and assign their own multiples to sales and earnings. But almost any reasonable multiple would produce a stock price thats considerably above the current price. A Price/Earnings ratio of 20, for instance, which can clearly be characterized as reasonable for a company whose earnings are still rising strongly, would produce a price north of $40. A multiple of 10-times sales, which is the valuation being given Novo Nordisk, which is the closest thing to a pure play in the diabetes sector, would also suggest that MNKD stock offers considerable upside potential, even excluding MT.
Sanofi will not be abandoning Afrezza anytime soon, so investors should jettison this concern from their big portfolio of anxieties. The rapidly approaching debt maturity is probably of little concern, too, as the company has multiple relatively painless alternatives to meet its obligations. To go a little further, we think MNKD stockholders should stop obsessing about the weekly prescription data and every minute-to-minute tick of the stock price. Sanofis game plan is undoubtedly measured in years, as evident in the data for Lantus, and it has an impressive history of marketing new products, unlike all of us armchair experts who are disappointed with every weekly scripts figure. With regards to the stock price, its abundantly clear, from changes in the short interest, changes in the number of shares available for shorting on a daily basis, and changes in the interest rate being charged/paid to borrow shares, that the short sellers remain a major factor in the daily fluctuations. The day-to-day changes are of little consequence to
As to our back-of-the-envelope calculation, it is clearly simplistic and subject to multiple adjustments. Moreover, like all of our other valuation exercises, detailed in previous articles, the scenario painted above is predicated on the opening assumption that sales of Afrezza will be robust. That said, the latest exercise is probably no less predictive than the sophisticated models put out by Wall Street analysts, who have been known to halve their projections at the proverbial drop of a hat. All in all, we continue to believe that MNKD shares offer a compelling risk/reward proposition.
This article is written by George Rho and was originally published on Seeking Alpha. The author is long MNKD and SNY.
I know you know what your talking about but it just seems hard to convince people (The Masses) that it's better hopefully someday soon. My son doesn't even know about it and loves the pump.