Early NFL value
mgmhatesme
Member
Just found this forum, if I make picks for season will not have write-ups as it is just too time consuming, but felt I would share a bit for first post on here
Its pretty early to invest into NFL, but if you are willing to have a long-term sports investment, I believe there are is 1 good value out there now enough to act early on. FWIW, I do not have a power ranking system for the NFL... I start by estimating the lines each week and then see how they differ from the market. I also keep a list of what I feel are undervalued or overvalued teams. I will also look for motivational or matchup issues, as does anyone I imagine... but regardless the line I thought was off:
BIGGEST SURPRISE, SUGGEST ACT NOW IF YOU LIKE NYJ:
NYJ -2.5 (-120 at pinnacle) at home vs Cleveland. I was surprised when this came out that it was -2.5, -110 not at -3.5. This price has started to move already, would not be surprised to see this at -3.5 by week 1. I dont think the market is currently valuing the offseason additions the Jets have made in Darrell Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall... as well as keeping their own. I expect them to have a top 5 defense. They did lost CJ2k but Ivory was the superior back and they also brought in Ridley and Zac Stacy for depth. Home opener with the new coach. Geno Smith is obviously factoring in heavily in public/oddsmakers view, but this is an advantage for the bettor. Meanwhile the Browns still feel in disarray to me. QB McCown had a great year with the Bears in a friendly offense for him under Trestman but has not shown much before or since. QB Manziel has not proven anything and is more likely to be overvalued based on college hype. WR Josh Gordon suspended again replaced by an aging and ineffective Dwayne Bowe. Not much help from draft. Average defense.
SMALLER VALUES, MAY AS WELL WAIT:
HOU -1.5 -105 at home vs Kansas City. Again, I believe home team is undervalued based on perception of QB. There is of course a risk with a Foster injury in preseason. 2 pretty good front 7s, but ill take a consistent Foster over a boom or bust Charles in an important home opener for year 2 of the Obrien regime.
TEN +3, -102 away vs TB. Would be interesting if this were Winston vs Mariota. Certainly will be helpful to see how they do preseason, but I think Winston ultimately will try to do a bit too much under pressure from a bad OL. Meanwhile Ten has a very solid OL and underrated team throughout. I think the line will stay at this safe number, so no need to act... but I also think Ten is the right side at +3.
NEP -2.5, -102 at home vs PITT. No Brady somewhat offset by no Bell for Pitt. Brady loss is likely overvalued and Pats seem to do well with perceived slights based on deflategate. I expect this to move to -3 and if you are on the Pats, that would be worthwhile to move now.
Its pretty early to invest into NFL, but if you are willing to have a long-term sports investment, I believe there are is 1 good value out there now enough to act early on. FWIW, I do not have a power ranking system for the NFL... I start by estimating the lines each week and then see how they differ from the market. I also keep a list of what I feel are undervalued or overvalued teams. I will also look for motivational or matchup issues, as does anyone I imagine... but regardless the line I thought was off:
BIGGEST SURPRISE, SUGGEST ACT NOW IF YOU LIKE NYJ:
NYJ -2.5 (-120 at pinnacle) at home vs Cleveland. I was surprised when this came out that it was -2.5, -110 not at -3.5. This price has started to move already, would not be surprised to see this at -3.5 by week 1. I dont think the market is currently valuing the offseason additions the Jets have made in Darrell Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall... as well as keeping their own. I expect them to have a top 5 defense. They did lost CJ2k but Ivory was the superior back and they also brought in Ridley and Zac Stacy for depth. Home opener with the new coach. Geno Smith is obviously factoring in heavily in public/oddsmakers view, but this is an advantage for the bettor. Meanwhile the Browns still feel in disarray to me. QB McCown had a great year with the Bears in a friendly offense for him under Trestman but has not shown much before or since. QB Manziel has not proven anything and is more likely to be overvalued based on college hype. WR Josh Gordon suspended again replaced by an aging and ineffective Dwayne Bowe. Not much help from draft. Average defense.
SMALLER VALUES, MAY AS WELL WAIT:
HOU -1.5 -105 at home vs Kansas City. Again, I believe home team is undervalued based on perception of QB. There is of course a risk with a Foster injury in preseason. 2 pretty good front 7s, but ill take a consistent Foster over a boom or bust Charles in an important home opener for year 2 of the Obrien regime.
TEN +3, -102 away vs TB. Would be interesting if this were Winston vs Mariota. Certainly will be helpful to see how they do preseason, but I think Winston ultimately will try to do a bit too much under pressure from a bad OL. Meanwhile Ten has a very solid OL and underrated team throughout. I think the line will stay at this safe number, so no need to act... but I also think Ten is the right side at +3.
NEP -2.5, -102 at home vs PITT. No Brady somewhat offset by no Bell for Pitt. Brady loss is likely overvalued and Pats seem to do well with perceived slights based on deflategate. I expect this to move to -3 and if you are on the Pats, that would be worthwhile to move now.
Comments
Welcome to Bettingtalk.
In my opinion every pick you make right now for an event that's 3 months away, with unknown players, unknown weather and unknown player health, are nothing more than a coin flip. No matter how much you think you know the teams. Remember how Dallas was supposed to be in shambles last year? How did that work out? And how about St Louis? They were everybody's dark horse, together with Buffalo and a bit less so Tampa Bay.
Don't want to discourage you posting, all discussions are welcome, but I hope you can see where I'm coming from.
Greetz,
Obi
Well stated.
Blackbull, Excellent point. I think I read that before in one of Peter Lynch's books about the stock market and it should apply to any market.
OP: Gino Smith will always be Gino Smith he's very up and down QB. Hopefully he has a good game on opening day for you.
I agree with you Blackbull, thank you for sharing that wisdom, but I hope that you can agree with me that that's a very big 'IF'.
To those that DO believe they can beat the books, think about the following points:
- There's a reason why books don't mind putting out NFL lines this far in advance. Because they know they cannot get burned. They'll bat .500 at worst and make money on the vigorish. Take for example the NBA. No sane book will put out lines until just a few days before the season starts, why is that? Because the NBA is a sport with a much smaller roster with only 5 starters, where you indeed can predict a team's strength by using RAPM or PER. There is almost no way you can be accurate in predicting how a 56-player roster will work out in the future. Too many variables.
- Any single turnover in the NFL can cause a 14 point swing, With an average of only 9 to 10 drives per game, this can kill you as you'll have a hard time recovering from such a mistake. On the other hand in the NBA, a game features about 90 to 100 possessions. Here the variance is decidedly less.
However, you still do not grasp the point I am trying to make. "Vegas" is not the omnipotent beast that most make it out to be (trust me, I'm here now, it's a wonderful town with wonderful people, but the sports books are oh so very unimpressive).
Now re: the all powerful Demi-Gods of Vegas , they merely opens prices (often AFTER what I call "Major Market Open") when they are confident that they can manage incoming action and leverage their vig appropriately. So they don't create the price, they open the marketplace, they let the market decide the price, and they take their cut for brokering all those transactions that hammer the price into its correct place along the way.
They point is: they don't have to be perfect, they just have to be good enough; and the smart operators understand the importance of volume. They are going to open prices (some which are off, sometimes significantly), the are going to manage the action as it comes in, the price is going to get tighter, limits are going to be raised throughout the process as confidence in the price increases, and they are going to make money by managing this process competently.
A smart operation uses professional players as consultants. Sharp money comes in, they move the lines appropriately, and the sharp players get paid for their "consults" with long term expected profit. If they wait too long to open the price, they are going to get hammered with softer prices at higher limits. Better to let the up and comers shape it into place before limits are raised. At least, better for the sports books.
Early on, prices are at their weakest, which is why limits are lower. And as I said before: Sportsbooks would actually prefer the small-time pros to come in and hammer the price into shape before limits are raised later on in the process. It's better for business. On the other end: you will see the angry larger pros who wish these smaller guys would just wait until limits are raised so that they can take full advantage of the early, softer prices at larger limits later in the week. Eventually, the small time guys become big time guys and they complain just as their predecessors did, lol, the cycle continues
But I digress, the point is this: AT ANY TIME when a price is offered, that price is made from current data. IF a trader can use current data in the process of making a more accurate line than that which is currently being offered, he has made money.
Remember the joke about the bear and the two guys?
Bear starts running at two guys in the woods. One guy says, "We will never out run that bear, we're finished!"
The other guy, finishing up tying his shoes, responds to the guy with a smile, "I don't have to outrun the bear, I merely have to out run you."
Such is the case in trading. You don't have to come up with a perfect price. You don't have to be able to predict everything that is going to happen or know every variable (many that will remain a secret to EVERYONE involved in the process), all you have to do is "Out run the bear" -> I.E. Price things better than the market has priced them at any given point in time.
Now is that an easy thing to do: ABSOLUTELY NOT! But it is possible and those that do it will make money long term.
I think they put the lines out early simply because it is a liquid market, not because the oddsmakers feel they have an extra handicapping edge.
I also think regarding the turnovers, the probability should be priced into the line, although I agree luck is certainly a factor. That can go both ways though.
You don't seem to like NFL wagering and you may be right that there may be better opportunities in baseball or basketball. I just added here where I felt I had some knowledge, as I can't add value to the forum in the other sports. And admittedly, even in my forties and after doing this for 20+ years, I can play for entertainment more than I should trying to force an NFL night game play when I shouldnt have. Still, there are investments that can be made that are correct. I think money management does people in more so than picks anyway.
The only issue I have with playing the early lines really is not being able to rollover your bankroll multiple times... As this should be a major benefit for the sports bettor that can gain a small edge on the market. However, I felt there was enough of a variance over the "true" line that there was value. Theoretically, I could arbitrage here if the line does move to +3, +125 or so for CLE against the NYJ, and I coukd hope to catch the 3. I don't plan this.
Edit: All you have to do is "Out run the other guy." Sorry guys, makes sense with that edit. I'm a fast thinker/typer. Mistakes will be made
The NFL competition committee's extra-point proposal passed.
slightly higher NFL totals and key numbers less important now?
The NFL may have been shooting for an equal return, but I believe your expected return on a 2pt play will be higher, just not sure to what extent. A 2pt try will have an average expected rate of return of 0.96 points on conservative side. In 2014, FG from 20-29yd were successful 97.5% while from 30-39yd were successful 90.4%. Not sure at exactly 33yd, but I would expect that number long term to likely be around 94-95%... So your expected return is 0.95 let's say optimistically... Which would give an edge to the 2pt play.... It may be even 2%.
Any team with a good offensive line/ good running game/ mobile QB would be wise to go for 2 every single time. (Opponent D also a factor of course). However as historical production on 2-point try has been .98 points, there is not much that changes theoretically. So no real changes in game-totals (or key-numbers).
Just some quick thoughts of mine, wondering what kind of articles the statheads will produce on the web. Wait and see.
I suspect you are right about key numbers changing a bit. Not sure on totals....
I'd be surprised if the 37s,38s,41s etc... are just as valuable when say the pats and eagles meet?
I think it's even more interesting for 2nd halves, the 24 is still going to be a very very important number (also 27) I guess it depends on the teams and the situations. Kelly may not even go for two in the 2h up 30 in the 4th but belichick probably will lol
We have not even talked about the sides yet
When would a pats/eagles game ever see a total of 37/38/41?
I still can't see a reason why totals should change right now. As long as the point expectancy hovers around .96 (or 1 point) not much changes imo.
However when it comes to key numbers there's actually a whole lot changing. After giving it more thought I'd say that the 2 and the 4 become just as important as the 3. The 1 also gets more value than before. Here are a couple of examples:
Case 1: A team is trailing 20 - 15. Should they score a TD, what should the strategy be? Kick the XP or go for 2? There are 4 possible outcomes here:
- XP make, score is 20 - 22. Difference = 2 points
- XP miss, score is 20 -21. Difference = 1 point
- 2PT make, score is 20 - 23, Difference = 3 points
- 2 PT miss, score is 20 - 21, Difference = 1 point
Case 2: A team is trailing 20 - 16. Should they score a TD, what should the strategy be? Kick the XP or go for 2? There are 4 possible outcomes here:
- XP make, score is 20 - 23. Difference = 3 points
- XP miss, score is 20 -22. Difference = 2 points
- 2PT make, score is 20 - 24, Difference = 4 points
- 2 PT miss, score is 20 - 22, Difference = 2 points
You can continue doing this same exercise for all possible deficits and you'd see that the 2, the 4, the 6 and the 8 all become more important.
Looking forward to your thoughts.
OK Obi, you can add a 5th possible outcome in your scenarios. A 5th would be a botched
attempt leading to a Defensive return and score for 2pts. Similar to college. Late game strategy by smart staffs come into play. Late when leading by 4, pre-extra pt/pts attempt the intelligent play would be to take a knee. Kinda similar to the intentional safety theory around the #s 4 and #6.
Agree with your key #s theory
Questions and comments for the NFL Commish please call during office hours
1-800- LA- RAPINA :laugh:
No need to apologize I was just picking on you. I think this rule change will have very little effect on lines.
1. I don't think the kickers will miss much(similar to XP's)
2. Most NFL coaches are bad at math
Even if the 2pt conversion is worth more/attempt it's going to take a long time to filter thru to the coaches making that decision. Most of them are more concerned with their job than the .06pt difference they gain each time. It's such a minor change.
The 30sec clock in CBB.....now that's a little more interesting.
Hahaha, too true!