Looks like the Pacers are going to make the playoffs. A very experienced squad with Paul George back in the fold. This is a very dangerous team imo. Found them at +5000 in the futures department at 5Dimes. This is 'to win the Eastern conference'.
Wow,
Lazy job on my part. CRIS has +6343.
Even at +5000 the chance of guaranteeing a profit by hedging with the series prices is big. Imagine what you could do with the +9500 from Heritage.
If Indiana gets in, their opponents in none of the 3 series (1st Round, 2nd Round, Eastern Conference Championship game) are going to be bigger than -600 favorites. So you can hedge -1200 to win 2units in each round to get a profit.
If they get in they will play Atlanta which I already have at +9000 to win it all, so who ever they play the first Round I will have to hedge anyway.
If I didn't have Atlanta then yes I would play the +9500 on Indiana
Now that the limits have been raised and lines are open at all the books, here are the adjusted lines for the official plays,
- WSH +4.5 @ TOR
- SAS +1 @ LAC
- BOS +11 @ CLE
- ATL -10 vs BKN
- MIL/CHI U 186 (wouldn't play it at this number anymore)
- NOP/GSW U 203.5
- POR/MEM U188.5
1H MIL/CHI U93.5
- Only way Milwaukee can have a chance to be competitive in this series is to slow the game down. Get set on defense and try to stifle the Bulls. Looking for a much slower tempo in game 2 compared to the fast paced 1st game.
TOR season on the line for the 2H, they can't go down 0-2 with the series shifting to WSH. Also WSH bad 2H numbers all season long. Grab TOR at the opening number.
4-1 last 5 picks,
playoffs record 8-8 for -0.7 units
for tonight:
1731 SA/LAC O100 1H GM2
1731 SA +1 @ LAC GM2
tomorrow:
1734 BOS +2 1H vs CLE GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on BOS Q1 for GM3)
1736 MIL +1 vs CHI 1H GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on MIL Q1 for GM3)
1738 NO +2 vs GSW 1H GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on NO Q1 for GM3)
obi sorry to clutter your picks thread, but really like your nba plays for today though. i will be on the same good luck to us.
Well the thinking is simple,
One team is super motivated and backed by the home crowd, the other has a diminished sense of urgency with a 2-0 series lead. 6 plays total already for the 1st round, expecting a minimum of 4 wins on the 1st half plays. Good luck to us!
Comments
ORL/IND U94 1H
CLE -2.5 1H @ DAL
SAS -4 1H vs TOR
NYK/UTA U88.5 1H
LAL +1.5 1H
PHI +3 1H vs CHI
MEM -3 1H @ BOS
MEM/BOS U93 1H
ORL +4.5 1H @ MIL
DEN +3.5 1H vs ATL
DET/ GS U204.5 FG
SAS -3 1H (2x)
IND/CHI U90 1H
ORL/DAL O102.5 1H
DEN/MIA O105 1H
As advised by my publisher, posting late sunday night for the obvious reason
YTD: 44 - 45 for -5.5 UW and -8.4 Weighted
Getting ready for the playoffs. Will post those plays here and also futures and series prices.
1u Indiana Pacers to win Eastern Conference +5000
Will have 1st round series prices on thursday.
Wow,
Lazy job on my part. CRIS has +6343.
Even at +5000 the chance of guaranteeing a profit by hedging with the series prices is big. Imagine what you could do with the +9500 from Heritage.
If Indiana gets in, their opponents in none of the 3 series (1st Round, 2nd Round, Eastern Conference Championship game) are going to be bigger than -600 favorites. So you can hedge -1200 to win 2units in each round to get a profit.
If I didn't have Atlanta then yes I would play the +9500 on Indiana
-1u to start the playoffs,
Going to need a good run to end the season positive on my posted picks.
Lines of the 1st games of the 2015 playoffs are posted at 5D already,
Grabbed these:
- WSH +4.5 @ TOR
- SAS +2 @ LAC
- BOS +11 @ CLE
- ATL -9 vs BKN
- MIL/CHI U 193.5
- NOP/GSW U 205.5
- POR/MEM U191.5
Will post the official lines at which I will grade later on, when CRIS and Pinny are available
- WSH +4.5 @ TOR
- SAS +1 @ LAC
- BOS +11 @ CLE
- ATL -10 vs BKN
- MIL/CHI U 186 (wouldn't play it at this number anymore)
- NOP/GSW U 203.5
- POR/MEM U188.5
Can't complain about the line-value.
4709 2nd Q CLE -3 vs BOS
1710 1H BOS/CLE U100
1H MIL/CHI U93.5
- Only way Milwaukee can have a chance to be competitive in this series is to slow the game down. Get set on defense and try to stifle the Bulls. Looking for a much slower tempo in game 2 compared to the fast paced 1st game.
CHI -5 2H vs MIL
playoffs record 8-8 for -0.7 units
for tonight:
1731 SA/LAC O100 1H GM2
1731 SA +1 @ LAC GM2
tomorrow:
1734 BOS +2 1H vs CLE GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on BOS Q1 for GM3)
1736 MIL +1 vs CHI 1H GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on MIL Q1 for GM3)
1738 NO +2 vs GSW 1H GM3 (when the lines open I will also be on NO Q1 for GM3)
Joey Crawford calls a technical mid-fastbreak, .....total lands at 99......incredible
Well the thinking is simple,
One team is super motivated and backed by the home crowd, the other has a diminished sense of urgency with a 2-0 series lead. 6 plays total already for the 1st round, expecting a minimum of 4 wins on the 1st half plays. Good luck to us!
Still mulling........1740 DAL PK vs HOU 1H
WSH -2.5 vs TOR 1H GM4
LAC/SAS O101 1H GM3
1746 BKN +1 vs ATL 1H GM3
1748 MIL 1H vs CHI GM4
1750 NOP 1H vs GSW GM4
1752 POR 1H vs MEM GM3