Betting Talk

Roughing The Book Week 4

cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
http://media.wix.com/ugd/407b51_0fb7b4bab3ba40a38f1446a1d2d3eb0c.pdf

Has plays in on Minn +3 and Tenn +8 right now.

Comments

  • traggs25traggs25 Member
    edited September 2014
    balt and sd too right? or am I reading it wrong??? it is the plays with the (y) right?
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Yes. Balt @ -3 and SD @ -13.5
  • traggs25traggs25 Member
    edited September 2014
    thanks cpech ... love these writeups!
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    In this order he likes the following ML upsets....

    Raiders-Eagles-Cowboys-Vikings
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    traggs25 wrote: »
    thanks cpech ... love these writeups!

    The guy knows his stuff and is as Sharp as they come. He refuses to go tout like so many others have done and I respect that.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Continued to kill the market on Sunday.

    Model Picks went 7-3-1 and Gut Picks went 8-3. Hitting over 60% so far this year.
  • namathfannamathfan Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    cpech, whenever you get a free minute...

    From Thursday thru Sunday night there were 12 games. To my untrained eye it looks like the model had no plays on Buff..Det..Phil..Dallas, which leaves just 8 games.

    Can you point me in the right direction as to where 11 model plays show up?

    Thanks a million!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Model:

    wsh loss: -2.2
    mia win: +1.0
    chi loss: -2.2
    buff loss: 0.0
    tenn loss: -2.2
    balt win: +1.0
    det win: 0.0
    tb win: +1.0
    sd win: +2.0
    phi push: 0.0
    min win: 0.0
    dal win: 0.0
    ne pending for 0.0 units.

    total record on 'model' picks so far: 7-4-1 for -1.6 units.

    Why are you misrepresenting this tout info? He uses 2 records, gut and model. Broadens the chance of getting at least 1 of them positive. As you can see when factoring his units, he's actually losing.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    I simply post what he tweets. He's not a tout, he doesnt charge a penny.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Cpech,

    I'm fairly certain you mean no harm, nor do you intend to con anybody on here. However, anytime a person is misrepresenting their records and not using an unweighted method, the way it's written in the rules of this forum, you can assume he's not a long-term winner. The fact alone that he uses 2 records, 'model' and 'gut' should tell you that there's something wrong. Nowhere do I see him factoring the juice into his record keeping. Another flag. Have you actually tallied his units to see whether his calculator actually has a battery in it? Too many flags Cpech. You should be wary of them.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Cpech,

    I'm fairly certain you mean no harm, nor do you intend to con anybody on here. However, anytime a person is misrepresenting their records and not using an unweighted method, the way it's written in the rules of this forum, you can assume he's not a long-term winner. The fact alone that he uses 2 records, 'model' and 'gut' should tell you that there's something wrong. Nowhere do I see him factoring the juice into his record keeping. Another flag. Have you actually tallied his units to see whether his calculator actually has a battery in it? Too many flags Cpech. You should be wary of them.

    I appreciate your concern, Obi. I'm going to do some investigating into the things you mentioned and report back. You're absolutely right that I mean no harm, just trying to contribute a guys plays that I know from the last 3-5 years is a proven winner.
  • namathfannamathfan Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    I wasn't trying to open a can of worms. If cpech vouched for the guy, that's enough for me.

    Just wanted to see if I was reading the info correctly.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    namathfan wrote: »
    I wasn't trying to open a can of worms. If cpech vouched for the guy, that's enough for me.

    Just wanted to see if I was reading the info correctly.

    No worries, Namathfan. I sent him a nice message on his page to clarify some of the thing OBI mentioned. He makes very good points and we've had the same talk on here numerous with actual touts. I just know this guy personally and know he isn't in the business of sports betting to make money off people playing his plays. He's an options trader full time and has good success betting NFL. I'll pass along his answers when he replies
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    He responded with something about contacting him via twitter. I don't want to because my twitter has a lot of people from school connected. If someone else would tweet him and ask him some of the questions above I would appreciate it.
  • DubbsDubbs Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    cpech56 wrote: »
    He responded with something about contacting him via twitter. I don't want to because my twitter has a lot of people from school connected. If someone else would tweet him and ask him some of the questions above I would appreciate it.

    You can send private msg's on twitter
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Dubbs wrote: »
    You can send private msg's on twitter

    Only if the person follows you as well.....
  • namathfannamathfan Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    I tweeted him today and asked about the plays I "missed". He said for recordkeeping purposes the model plays are all counted even the ones with a "0" rating. So...

    Thurs 0-1
    Sunday 7-3-1
    Monday 0-1

    Total 7-5-1....2 units 1-3......1 unit 4-1...0 unit 2-1-1

    Hope this helps.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    namathfan wrote: »
    I tweeted him today and asked about the plays I "missed". He said for recordkeeping purposes the model plays are all counted even the ones with a "0" rating. So...

    Thurs 0-1
    Sunday 7-3-1
    Monday 0-1

    Total 7-5-1....2 units 1-3......1 unit 4-1...0 unit 2-1-1

    Hope this helps.

    It does help, thanks man. You should ask him why he's do giddy with the way his stuffs been going because he's likely not up if those are accurate ratings.
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