The card boxes was an exaggeration They did come to borrow big money that's a fact. There is a lot of people out there that call them selves syndicates when in fact they are just The Umpa Lumpa Gang in the Key makers eye's. I'm not saying you, but close to 30% got corn holed.
You sure you aren't looking at degenerate loser accounts (if after all anyone can call themselves a syndicate). Real advantage players really just don't blow up like that, especially not over the course of one NBA season that has a relatively small # of games.
3, Obi One referenced haralabob claiming that the NBA marketmakers should post an opener and just leave it there. If NBA marketmakers posted an opener and left it there, and if they were anything like the openers in Nov/Dec of this past season, then some of us would own the marketmakers awfully quickly. There's no way that haralabob actually thinks this. Also, pokerjoe commented that he has a 'unique impact' on the lines. This is not accurate in the least, and never has been. He definitely knows a whole heck of a lot about the NBA, and we surely wouldn't ever want the opposite of his side, but he doesn't impact the lines in the way that is being implied here.
Hbob has said all sorts of shit that's completely wrong if you look at the data (1h/2h splits, Avery Johnson 2h) about how he made money, so he is either trolling or a fraud (I pick the later).
You sure you aren't looking at degenerate loser accounts (if after all anyone can call themselves a syndicate). Real advantage players really just don't blow up like that, especially not over the course of one NBA season that has a relatively small # of games.
Well these same accounts actually did very good the prior 2 years, so I'm not sure who they are by definition, but they claim to be syndicates.
1, re: the original post, dealing in part with the lack of efficiency in the NBA markets, and using the Pacers (3-23 ATS since the ASB) as the primary example. A main issue is that many of the sharper groups sat on the sidelines of Pacer games since around the ASB, given that none of us could figure out wtf was going on.
This is more or less the same thing I concluded after many of the other, earlier, informative posts in this thread. I thought: What if the money which the books are taking in on Indy games after January is still 'balancing out'? By that I mean, that they would not have any reason to move the line against Indy, as no such money is coming in. Your post clarifies how and why this happened.
Interesting comments.
If I understand your comment correctly, if you took +3 and another group or syndicate came over the top and pushed the line to +4 , your group would pass on +4?
Also so I have an understanding of your opinion are you an actual investor in your group or one of the working bees placing bets ?
Hbob has said all sorts of shit that's completely wrong if you look at the data (1h/2h splits, Avery Johnson 2h) about how he made money, so he is either trolling or a fraud (I pick the later).
when you say 1h/2h splits, are you referencing to the interviews where he claimed that in 2004 he was pretty much blindly betting 75kish per half on say the under of eddie jordans wizards for the 1st halves and over for 2nd halves?
I always thought it was very conceivable that the 1h/2h splits were not set correctly in the mid 2000s and that he is the main reason they became more accurate after those seasons.
Kahuna -
a, assuming no new info, (a) if it was in the 2nd half of the season, then wed pass on the +4 in that situation probably about 80% of the time. we do sometimes wait for a number to reach us though too (but imo thats a far different circumstance). so using your example, if we're at like +2.5 all else being equal, and the market opened at +3 and went to +5, then ofc wed take it. but (b) early in the season (oct/nov/dec/jan? depends), i'd ignore market direction and go with what we think about 80% of the time. so wed likely add at +4 then. i want to be clear though that this doesnt happy very often (lines going the wrong way, even early in the season).
b, im the largest investor by far. fwiw, we're basketball/quants people, way more than wagering people. most people in the basketball analytics community know us, but we dont know many people in the wagering community really. im sure some people on this forum know much more about the wagering universe than we do.
when you say 1h/2h splits, are you referencing to the interviews where he claimed that in 2004 he was pretty much blindly betting 75kish per half on say the under of eddie jordans wizards for the 1st halves and over for 2nd halves?
I always thought it was very conceivable that the 1h/2h splits were not set correctly in the mid 2000s and that he is the main reason they became more accurate after those seasons.
The one I'm thinking of was Avery Johnson 2h's under. Rsigley posted all the lines/results and there was nothing there. There is a thread 2p2, I will look for it. He also talked about how the linesmakers just halfed the game total and the 2h should be more because of end of game fouling, except that doesn't happen.
those are some from Nov 6 2007 ^^^^^^^^^
Durito, I don't know why your so against Bob. He's the only true winner I know of in the NBA. Can some of his methods have flaws? Sure they can, but in the end he gets the Money and that's what counts
I am not against him, it is my personal opinion that he is not a winning NBA gambler. He made his money selling Wagerstreet (the softest sportsbook in the history of life) to Spiros for 10M.
I am not talking about flaws either. I am talking about downright lies or misinformation that can be proved with data (I know you don't like that).
I am not talking about flaws either. I am talking about downright lies or misinformation that can be proved with data (I know you don't like that).
What he claims and says in open public and what he actually does is 2 different things. I'm not going to judge him on what he preaches to the masses, for all I know it can be to intentionally misguide others. He's Greek you know.. they love to talk and misguide
So you want me to believe a winning NBA originator is playing 4 teamers at +1000 and action reverses?
Those are his Durito you feel free to believe what you like. Those used to come in about 2 times a week along with many straight bets.
What he claims and says in open public and what he actually does is 2 different things. I'm not going to judge him on what he preaches to the masses, for all I know it can be to intentionally misguide others. He's Greek you know.. they love to talk and misguide
That is what I said in my first post, that he is either trolling publicly or full of shit.
Those plays you see above where actually the first ones I seen from him and what do you think I did that day?
I faded every single one of them straight up and got raped. Then the next day my uncle calls and the first thing he said to me was, did you follow?
I was like, No I faded those plays..LOL..
- Durito already brought this up, but why would 'the only true NBA winner you know' possibly be playing 4 team parlays at +1000?
- Do you think that posting a couple random 4 team parlay winners from November 2007 (whether they are real or not) proves anything one way or another?
- I thought his whole philosophy at that time was that teams score less in the first half and more in the second half, and yet these are all first half overs?
All that post did was reinforce my belief that Durito is correct on this matter.
Those plays you see above where actually the first ones I seen from him and what do you think I did that day?
I faded every single one of them straight up and got raped. Then the next day my uncle calls and the first thing he said to me was, did you follow?
I was like, No I faded those plays..LOL..
Wait, so you're saying that you actually "faded" someone's plays? Like- you blindly bet real money on the opposite side, as if it were a profitable strategy?
I am now beginning to suspect underwraps might actually be trolling in ~50% of posts. If so, well played.
All that post did was reinforce my belief that Durito is correct on this matter.
Wanted to start a discussion on Haralabob, but I have my reservations about being wrong/right in this one. As long as we don't have his longterm records, we are all going to be guessing.
If you know how his model looked like way back in 2006/2007, it's hard to fathom that he didn't beat the market. I mean, he charted -how a possession got started, to whom the ball was passed, what kind of play the offense ran, how the shot went up, on which side of the court, etc etc. He had his own private SportsVU model, before SportsVU even existed. He knew which side a player would drive to most, what his PPP would be per type of drive, shot or PnR. He also had a good eye for coaching tendencies (according to himself, but still). Once again, knowing he had all this data, makes it hard to believe he didn't obliterate the market back then.
In regard to the parlays displayed above, I believe that he had ways to get 50K or more down per game. He was also very good at predicting series outcomes in the Playoffs. So throwing some change on a couple of parlays, maybe to show the books you're not that sharp might be a possibility.
As I respect durito a lot, I'm really left wondering why he thinks Haralobos might be full of crap. What am I missing here.?
My opinion is based solely on the things he's said in interviews that are obvious nonsense to anyone that bothers to check the data. If he is just trolling or whatever fine, but I've seen no evidence otherwise. Also the fact that he owned the squarest sportsbook in history doesn't really speak sharp bettor.
My opinion is based solely on the things he's said in interviews that are obvious nonsense to anyone that bothers to check the data. If he is just trolling or whatever fine, but I've seen no evidence otherwise. Also the fact that he owned the squarest sportsbook in history doesn't really speak sharp bettor.
By the time Pinnacle Sports presses 'follow' on my twitter page, I'd be pretty careful in what I'd say going forward too. (bring on the jokes, I can take it ) What I mean is that he knows it's a cat and mouse game between him and the books. Losing a point on his future halftime bets because he said too much in an interview can't be his goal going into that interview.
I appreciate your thoughts and will be more critical of his words going forward. Thanks
I mean, he charted -how a possession got started, to whom the ball was passed, what kind of play the offense ran, how the shot went up, on which side of the court, etc etc. He had his own private SportsVU model, before SportsVU even existed. He knew which side a player would drive to most, what his PPP would be per type of drive, shot or PnR.
i want to be clear here that I dont know haralabob personally. and while i cant speak for his wagering record, i can say that his knowledge of the NBA is absolutely first class. that said, jeff van gundy has an absolutely first class knowledge of the NBA, but im not sure he would be a great trader/investor in the NBA market.
boring as i may sound here...... most of the stuff that Obi mentioned there is pretty irrelevant in terms of actual trading (which I think backs up durito's point a bit, ie much of the trading-related stuff that haralabob talks about sounds good, but doesn't matter much in terms of trading). this is because most of the stuff that Obi mentioned is completely usurped by prior-informed RAPM models, or other types of plus/minus modeling. if you have solid metrics like that, and have a good way of dealing with matchups and tendencies (ie its not all linear, you cant just add up player values to create a basketball team), then most of the stuff about who passed to who and on what side of the court and stuff sounds good, but its not that relevant.
ofc its also possible (likely?) that what he says publicly is very different from what he does privately, for obv reasons. but, given his knowledge of the NBA (again, i swear he really does know his stuff in a pure baskets sense), id not really want to be on the opposite side of him that often, even if some of his specific claims re trading/investing the NBA may not be valid.
ftr the last freebie that he released on Twitter (Chicago -190 or so over Washington in Round 1) didn't go swimmingly.
Ticket #140964
November-06 19:42:00
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[1705] TOTAL o107½-110 (1H DENVER vrs 1H NEW YORK)
[1715] TOTAL o106-110 (1H SEATTLE vrs 1H SACRAMENTO)
[1717] TOTAL o104-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 1000/10000 10000 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 14:15:26
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141127
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 21:56:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[1715] 1H SEATTLE +1-110
[1717] 1H CLEVELAND +1-110
[1719] 1H NEW ORLEANS +1½-115
[2713] 2H LA CLIPPERS +8-110 1000/9761 9761 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 21:55:16
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141127
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[1715] 1H SEATTLE +1-110
[1715] TOTAL o106-110 (1H SEATTLE vrs 1H SACRAMENTO)
[1717] 1H CLEVELAND +1-110
[1717] TOTAL o104½-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] 1H NEW ORLEANS +1½-115
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 500/19564 19564 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 21:56:23
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141141
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA REVERSE ACTION (1500 USD) (1 of 1)
[1717] TOTAL o104½-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 3300/6000 6000 WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 22:32:16
???? I guess Haralabob had open parlays on these winning wagers with the different timestamps.How do you account for the second 4 team paylay with the last timestamp November 6 21:56:00 getting put in after Nov 6 22:39:00.These cant be game start times.it has to be time bets were made.How do you account for win win win win graded November -6 21:55:16 before the bets were made for the second 4 team parlay?:surrender::surrender::surrender:
Over the last year we had a few threads regarding haralabob, most of my comments on the subject were simply of someone who followed him on twitter, various articles and chatter in the poker community. By pure accident/coincidence I ended-up having access to his plays this year, I have no idea what percentage of his total plays they were but i am 100% certain they were his. The method that he uses to have his action booked is pretty brilliant, he sends a text to 10-50 poker players (i dont know the exact number) and it’s autobooked for 1-3k each. The poker players obviously try to get down more with their outs. I will say this he absolutely destroys the lines but the plays I had were borderline breakeven, if you got his original line you were MUCH better off arbing and taking the other side after the line moved. Here are a couple of his plays from this year’s playoffs (goats, tommy, ed) I hope I am not breaking any rules, feel free to delete.
May 9th 1H WAS WIZARDS -160
April 29th 1H LA CLIPPERS -170
April 30th 1H HOU ROCKETS -170
Wait, so you're saying that you actually "faded" someone's plays? Like- you blindly bet real money on the opposite side, as if it were a profitable strategy?
I am now beginning to suspect underwraps might actually be trolling in ~50% of posts. If so, well played.
Baserunner: I didn't know who he was for over a week or 2 at that time. You want more details you sniffing poop?
He played those parlays twice a week in one account and like I said earlier most of his wagers where straight bets.
- I thought his whole philosophy at that time was that teams score less in the first half and more in the second half, and yet these are all first half overs?
You expect a GREEK to tell you the truth when he speaks publicly. they are masters at the art of deception especially this guy
Over the last year we had a few threads regarding haralabob, most of my comments on the subject were simply of someone who followed him on twitter, various articles and chatter in the poker community. By pure accident/coincidence I ended-up having access to his plays this year, I have no idea what percentage of his total plays they were but i am 100% certain they were his. The method that he uses to have his action booked is pretty brilliant, he sends a text to 10-50 poker players (i dont know the exact number) and it’s autobooked for 1-3k each. The poker players obviously try to get down more with their outs. I will say this he absolutely destroys the lines but the plays I had were borderline breakeven, if you got his original line you were MUCH better off arbing and taking the other side after the line moved. Here are a couple of his plays from this year’s playoffs (goats, tommy, ed) I hope I am not breaking any rules, feel free to delete.
May 9th 1H WAS WIZARDS -160
April 29th 1H LA CLIPPERS -170
April 30th 1H HOU ROCKETS -170
Eug, don't show anymore the Albanian from SIsland is going to get pissed
- I thought his whole philosophy at that time was that teams score less in the first half and more in the second half, and yet these are all first half overs?
All that post did was reinforce my belief that Durito is correct on this matter.
If you are looking league-wide, NBA 1st halves are lined higher than 2nd halves, so if books were dealing 50/50 at one point then you would have expected to see lots of 1st half over bets.
I am not familiar with the coaching tendencies mentioned, so if there were coaches that were "1st half under" bets, then my point is obviously moot.
Over the last year we had a few threads regarding haralabob, most of my comments on the subject were simply of someone who followed him on twitter, various articles and chatter in the poker community. By pure accident/coincidence I ended-up having access to his plays this year, I have no idea what percentage of his total plays they were but i am 100% certain they were his. The method that he uses to have his action booked is pretty brilliant, he sends a text to 10-50 poker players (i dont know the exact number) and it’s autobooked for 1-3k each. The poker players obviously try to get down more with their outs. I will say this he absolutely destroys the lines but the plays I had were borderline breakeven, if you got his original line you were MUCH better off arbing and taking the other side after the line moved. Here are a couple of his plays from this year’s playoffs (goats, tommy, ed) I hope I am not breaking any rules, feel free to delete.
May 9th 1H WAS WIZARDS -160
April 29th 1H LA CLIPPERS -170
April 30th 1H HOU ROCKETS -170
sounds like a good to way to get pokertards to move the line so he can get down on the other side. there has been a lot of 1h/1q favorites ml steam on pinnacle that loses badly the last few years
The method that he uses to have his action booked is pretty brilliant, he sends a text to 10-50 poker players (i dont know the exact number) and its autobooked for 1-3k each. The poker players obviously try to get down more with their outs.
ummm..... I'm very surprised to hear this. I can vouch for the validity of this as a method he may be using to get his trades off, as we do something much similar to this but on a much smaller scale. There's a group of (precisely 5 kids, not 10-50) ex-online poker kids who also book our trades in the same way (for 1k each, so 5k total), and then they bet them in Asia for way more. We do this as it lets us get in ~5k additional in wagers using the Pinny opening number. My guess now is that hbob is doing something similar but perhaps on a much larger scale.
tbh, I had thought that we had a very unique setup. I had no idea at all that it was being done by someone else (especially him). The "poker kids" as we call them approached us last October and not vice versa. So I though this was something only we had going on.
Comments
You sure you aren't looking at degenerate loser accounts (if after all anyone can call themselves a syndicate). Real advantage players really just don't blow up like that, especially not over the course of one NBA season that has a relatively small # of games.
Hbob has said all sorts of shit that's completely wrong if you look at the data (1h/2h splits, Avery Johnson 2h) about how he made money, so he is either trolling or a fraud (I pick the later).
Well these same accounts actually did very good the prior 2 years, so I'm not sure who they are by definition, but they claim to be syndicates.
I hit the 'Thank You' button about a dozen times, but it's only showing up once. Really can't thank you enough for your post.
This is more or less the same thing I concluded after many of the other, earlier, informative posts in this thread. I thought: What if the money which the books are taking in on Indy games after January is still 'balancing out'? By that I mean, that they would not have any reason to move the line against Indy, as no such money is coming in. Your post clarifies how and why this happened.
Thank you once again.
Obi
Interesting comments.
If I understand your comment correctly, if you took +3 and another group or syndicate came over the top and pushed the line to +4 , your group would pass on +4?
Also so I have an understanding of your opinion are you an actual investor in your group or one of the working bees placing bets ?
Thanks
when you say 1h/2h splits, are you referencing to the interviews where he claimed that in 2004 he was pretty much blindly betting 75kish per half on say the under of eddie jordans wizards for the 1st halves and over for 2nd halves?
I always thought it was very conceivable that the 1h/2h splits were not set correctly in the mid 2000s and that he is the main reason they became more accurate after those seasons.
Kahuna -
a, assuming no new info, (a) if it was in the 2nd half of the season, then wed pass on the +4 in that situation probably about 80% of the time. we do sometimes wait for a number to reach us though too (but imo thats a far different circumstance). so using your example, if we're at like +2.5 all else being equal, and the market opened at +3 and went to +5, then ofc wed take it. but (b) early in the season (oct/nov/dec/jan? depends), i'd ignore market direction and go with what we think about 80% of the time. so wed likely add at +4 then. i want to be clear though that this doesnt happy very often (lines going the wrong way, even early in the season).
b, im the largest investor by far. fwiw, we're basketball/quants people, way more than wagering people. most people in the basketball analytics community know us, but we dont know many people in the wagering community really. im sure some people on this forum know much more about the wagering universe than we do.
Attachment not found.
The one I'm thinking of was Avery Johnson 2h's under. Rsigley posted all the lines/results and there was nothing there. There is a thread 2p2, I will look for it. He also talked about how the linesmakers just halfed the game total and the 2h should be more because of end of game fouling, except that doesn't happen.
Ticket #140964
November-06 19:42:00
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[1705] TOTAL o107½-110 (1H DENVER vrs 1H NEW YORK)
[1715] TOTAL o106-110 (1H SEATTLE vrs 1H SACRAMENTO)
[1717] TOTAL o104-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 1000/10000 10000 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 14:15:26
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141127
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 21:56:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[1715] 1H SEATTLE +1-110
[1717] 1H CLEVELAND +1-110
[1719] 1H NEW ORLEANS +1½-115
[2713] 2H LA CLIPPERS +8-110 1000/9761 9761 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 21:55:16
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141127
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:12:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[1715] 1H SEATTLE +1-110
[1715] TOTAL o106-110 (1H SEATTLE vrs 1H SACRAMENTO)
[1717] 1H CLEVELAND +1-110
[1717] TOTAL o104½-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] 1H NEW ORLEANS +1½-115
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 500/19564 19564 WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 21:56:23
INTERNET/-1 Ticket #141141
November-06 22:39:00
November-06 22:39:00
NBA
NBA REVERSE ACTION (1500 USD) (1 of 1)
[1717] TOTAL o104½-110 (1H CLEVELAND vrs 1H GOLDEN STATE)
[1719] TOTAL o101½-110 (1H NEW ORLEANS vrs 1H LA LAKERS) 3300/6000 6000 WIN
WIN
WIN November-06 22:32:16
Durito, I don't know why your so against Bob. He's the only true winner I know of in the NBA. Can some of his methods have flaws? Sure they can, but in the end he gets the Money and that's what counts
I am not talking about flaws either. I am talking about downright lies or misinformation that can be proved with data (I know you don't like that).
So you want me to believe a winning NBA originator is playing 4 teamers at +1000 and action reverses?
Those are his Durito you feel free to believe what you like. Those used to come in about 2 times a week along with many straight bets.
That is what I said in my first post, that he is either trolling publicly or full of shit.
If those are his wagers I'm only further inclined to believe what I said originally, not that they can't have some +ev.
I faded every single one of them straight up and got raped. Then the next day my uncle calls and the first thing he said to me was, did you follow?
I was like, No I faded those plays..LOL..
Pretty awesome first post
- Do you think that posting a couple random 4 team parlay winners from November 2007 (whether they are real or not) proves anything one way or another?
- I thought his whole philosophy at that time was that teams score less in the first half and more in the second half, and yet these are all first half overs?
All that post did was reinforce my belief that Durito is correct on this matter.
Wait, so you're saying that you actually "faded" someone's plays? Like- you blindly bet real money on the opposite side, as if it were a profitable strategy?
I am now beginning to suspect underwraps might actually be trolling in ~50% of posts. If so, well played.
Wanted to start a discussion on Haralabob, but I have my reservations about being wrong/right in this one. As long as we don't have his longterm records, we are all going to be guessing.
If you know how his model looked like way back in 2006/2007, it's hard to fathom that he didn't beat the market. I mean, he charted -how a possession got started, to whom the ball was passed, what kind of play the offense ran, how the shot went up, on which side of the court, etc etc. He had his own private SportsVU model, before SportsVU even existed. He knew which side a player would drive to most, what his PPP would be per type of drive, shot or PnR. He also had a good eye for coaching tendencies (according to himself, but still). Once again, knowing he had all this data, makes it hard to believe he didn't obliterate the market back then.
In regard to the parlays displayed above, I believe that he had ways to get 50K or more down per game. He was also very good at predicting series outcomes in the Playoffs. So throwing some change on a couple of parlays, maybe to show the books you're not that sharp might be a possibility.
As I respect durito a lot, I'm really left wondering why he thinks Haralobos might be full of crap. What am I missing here.?
By the time Pinnacle Sports presses 'follow' on my twitter page, I'd be pretty careful in what I'd say going forward too. (bring on the jokes, I can take it
I appreciate your thoughts and will be more critical of his words going forward. Thanks
i want to be clear here that I dont know haralabob personally. and while i cant speak for his wagering record, i can say that his knowledge of the NBA is absolutely first class. that said, jeff van gundy has an absolutely first class knowledge of the NBA, but im not sure he would be a great trader/investor in the NBA market.
boring as i may sound here...... most of the stuff that Obi mentioned there is pretty irrelevant in terms of actual trading (which I think backs up durito's point a bit, ie much of the trading-related stuff that haralabob talks about sounds good, but doesn't matter much in terms of trading). this is because most of the stuff that Obi mentioned is completely usurped by prior-informed RAPM models, or other types of plus/minus modeling. if you have solid metrics like that, and have a good way of dealing with matchups and tendencies (ie its not all linear, you cant just add up player values to create a basketball team), then most of the stuff about who passed to who and on what side of the court and stuff sounds good, but its not that relevant.
ofc its also possible (likely?) that what he says publicly is very different from what he does privately, for obv reasons. but, given his knowledge of the NBA (again, i swear he really does know his stuff in a pure baskets sense), id not really want to be on the opposite side of him that often, even if some of his specific claims re trading/investing the NBA may not be valid.
ftr the last freebie that he released on Twitter (Chicago -190 or so over Washington in Round 1) didn't go swimmingly.
May 9th 1H WAS WIZARDS -160
April 29th 1H LA CLIPPERS -170
April 30th 1H HOU ROCKETS -170
Baserunner: I didn't know who he was for over a week or 2 at that time. You want more details you sniffing poop?
You expect a GREEK to tell you the truth when he speaks publicly. they are masters at the art of deception especially this guy
Eug, don't show anymore the Albanian from SIsland is going to get pissed
If you are looking league-wide, NBA 1st halves are lined higher than 2nd halves, so if books were dealing 50/50 at one point then you would have expected to see lots of 1st half over bets.
I am not familiar with the coaching tendencies mentioned, so if there were coaches that were "1st half under" bets, then my point is obviously moot.
sounds like a good to way to get pokertards to move the line so he can get down on the other side. there has been a lot of 1h/1q favorites ml steam on pinnacle that loses badly the last few years
ummm..... I'm very surprised to hear this. I can vouch for the validity of this as a method he may be using to get his trades off, as we do something much similar to this but on a much smaller scale. There's a group of (precisely 5 kids, not 10-50) ex-online poker kids who also book our trades in the same way (for 1k each, so 5k total), and then they bet them in Asia for way more. We do this as it lets us get in ~5k additional in wagers using the Pinny opening number. My guess now is that hbob is doing something similar but perhaps on a much larger scale.
tbh, I had thought that we had a very unique setup. I had no idea at all that it was being done by someone else (especially him). The "poker kids" as we call them approached us last October and not vice versa. So I though this was something only we had going on.