TT's NFL
TotallyTilt
Senior Member
I've been working extremely hard on learning how to sports handicap and develop sports models and am confident I have something that can beat NFL sides. I've back-tested it over several years and have found it to be profitable (there's no data mining or curve fitting involved in the backtesting).
That said, I'd still tread lightly until it builds up a record here. I'm going to track closing line value but in a very simple way: If I post a play at -4 and it closes -5, that's beating the close. If the post is -4 and it closes -3, that's losing the close. If the post is -3 and it closes -3, that's pushing the close unless the close is 10 cents more on either side. For example, post is -3 -105 and close is -3 -115, that's beating the close but -3 -114 would be pushing the close. **Note: Close refers to Pinny median close
Week 10 Plays to be graded:
#219 Carolina 6.5 -110
#224 San Diego 7 -116
#211 St Louis 9.5 -110
These are additional plays I have that I won't include in my record. The grading guidelines dictate I grade them at -110 and since these are all so far away from -110, I'm not sure they'd be profitable at -110.
I am going to include these in my closing line value tracking assuming that's OK with a Mod (Please let me know)
#108 Minnesota +1 +113
#214 Atlanta +6 -101
#216 Baltimore 1 -103
#221 Houston 1 +111
That said, I'd still tread lightly until it builds up a record here. I'm going to track closing line value but in a very simple way: If I post a play at -4 and it closes -5, that's beating the close. If the post is -4 and it closes -3, that's losing the close. If the post is -3 and it closes -3, that's pushing the close unless the close is 10 cents more on either side. For example, post is -3 -105 and close is -3 -115, that's beating the close but -3 -114 would be pushing the close. **Note: Close refers to Pinny median close
Week 10 Plays to be graded:
#219 Carolina 6.5 -110
#224 San Diego 7 -116
#211 St Louis 9.5 -110
These are additional plays I have that I won't include in my record. The grading guidelines dictate I grade them at -110 and since these are all so far away from -110, I'm not sure they'd be profitable at -110.
I am going to include these in my closing line value tracking assuming that's OK with a Mod (Please let me know)
#108 Minnesota +1 +113
#214 Atlanta +6 -101
#216 Baltimore 1 -103
#221 Houston 1 +111
Comments
#108 Minnesota +1 +113
#216 Baltimore 1 -103
#221 Houston 1 +111
The above three lines are teaser defense lines at Pinnacle. You can grade those sides at -110 using Bookmaker lines that are roughly equivalent at Minnesota +2.5, Baltimore +1.5, and Houston +3 (-127)
Week 10 Plays to be graded:
#219 Carolina 6.5 -110
#224 San Diego 7 -116
#211 St Louis 9.5 -110
#108 Minnesota 2.5 -110 (Bookmaker Line)
#216 Baltimore 1.5 -110 (Bookmaker Line)
#221 Houston 3 -127 (Bookmaker Line)
TT, if you're going to take lines from Pinny, you need to add about 5 cents to the juice to make them a standard 20-cent line that we require for grading. So SD should be graded at +7 -120 (BM has that anyway) and STL should be graded at +10 -115 from BM (which is a better line that what you posted anyway.
As for the CLV question, please track the CLV that goes with the plays you're actually posting as official and keeping a record for. If you want to track those other plays separately, that's fine, but adding in "unofficial plays" to your CLV analysis would be a little confusing and go against the spirit of having a main, official record that follows our guidelines (even though we don't actually require or have rules for tracking CLV).
Hope that made sense. GL.
Week 10 Plays to be graded:
#219 Carolina 6.5 -110
#224 San Diego 7 -120
#211 St Louis 10 -115
#108 Minnesota 2.5 -110
#216 Baltimore 1.5 -110
#221 Houston 3 -127
Record: 4-1-1 +2.8 Units
Beat Close %: 4-2 66%
Week 11 Picks will be up tonight or tomorrow
#310 Tennessee +3 -125
#404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
#406 Buffalo -1 -110
#408 Pitt +2.5 -110
#420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
#423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
All Week 11 Plays:
#310 Tennessee +3 -125
#404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
#406 Buffalo -1 -110
#408 Pitt +2.5 -110
#420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
#423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
#408 Pitt 1.5 -110
#430 Carolina -2.5 -115
Tampa Bay pushed and lost to the close. Updated record is:
4-1-2 +2.8 Units
Beat Close: 4-3 57.1%
Pending Plays:
#404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
#406 Buffalo -1 -110
#408 Pitt +2.5 -110
#420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
#423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
#430 Carolina -2.5 -115
Beat Close: 5-6 45%
Carolina -2.5 -115 Pending
Next week's plays should be up within the next day.
#108 Atlanta +7 -105
#209 Tampa +9.5 -110
#212 Houston -10 -115
#217 Carolina -3.5 -110
#222 St Louis -1 -110
#224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
#225 Tennessee 1.5 -110
Week 11 Pending: Carolina -2.5 -115
Beat Close: 6/12 50%
Pending Plays:
#108 Atlanta +7 -105
#209 Tampa +9.5 -110
#212 Houston -10 -115
#217 Carolina -3.5 -110
#222 St Louis -1 -110
#224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
#225 Tennessee 1.5 -110
Beat Close 6/13 = 46.1%
Pending:
#209 Tampa +9.5 -110
#212 Houston -10 -115
#217 Carolina -3.5 -110
#222 St Louis -1 -110
#224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
#225 Tennessee 1.5 -110
#232 New England +2.5 -110
Beat Close 11.5/19 = 60%
Pending: #232 New England +2.5 -110
Should have next week's picks up tonight or tomorrow
Very nice! Keep it up!
15-4-2 +10.53 Units
Closing Line Value: 12.5/20 = 62.5%
Week 13 Plays (All Lines taken from BookMaker):
#425 Tennessee +4.5 -110
#431 Tampa Bay +8 -110
#437 Miami +2 -110
#439 Atlanta +3.5 -110
#449 New Orleans +6 -110
May have one or two more in the next few days...
17-6-2 +10.33 Units
Closing Live Value: 15.5/24 = 64.5%
New Orleans +6 Pending
Should have next weeks picks up tonight
Something is off with your units since all lines are listed/graded in nickel increments as they should be.
Congrats on the run. Not bad for a poker player.
Ha thanks Speaking of poker, as much as I love sports betting, it'll be back to that in about a month.
And yep, not sure how I messed that up but it's fixed below. Fairly sure I counted "#212 Houston -10 -115" from my 11/22 post as a 1.12 unit loss instead of a 1.15 unit loss.
Revised record: 17-6-2 +10.3 Units
#101 Houston -3 +105
#137 Oakland +3 -120
#140 Cincy -5.5 -110
#149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
#151 St Louis +6.5 -110
Pending from Week 13:
#449 New Orleans +6 -110
May have another play or two in a few days...
As I mentioned earlier, these picks are running way, way above expectation. But certainly not complaining, hopefully it keeps up.
Closing Line Value: 15.5/25 = 62%
Pending:
#101 Houston -3 +105
#137 Oakland +3 -120
#140 Cincy -5.5 -110
#149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
#151 St Louis +6.5 -110
Total Pending:
#101 Houston -3 +105
#137 Oakland +3 -120
#140 Cincy -5.5 -110
#149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
#151 St Louis +6.5 -110
156 San Fran -2.5 -125
#154 San Diego -3 -125
#141 Carolina +3 100
Closing Live Value: 16.5/26 = 63.5%
Pending:
#137 Oakland +3 -120
#140 Cincy -5.5 -110
#149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
#151 St Louis +6.5 -110
156 San Fran -2.5 -125
#154 San Diego -3 -125
#141 Carolina +3 100
Closing Line Value: 20/33 = 60.6%
Should have next week's plays up tomorrow