Scott Kellen
golfer1000
Senior Member
Is kellen having a service this year?
golfer1000
Senior Member
Comments
I guess you weren't a member last year, because if you were the price is $300 for the beat down of 2012 season
Looks like he has made huge changes in his service to try and prevent such a debacle from reoccurring.
Friday has gotta be about the hardest time to beat the NFL. Early in the week, lines are soft. They get pounded into shape and are just about perfect I would guess by Friday. By Sunday some get moved by idiots, big betting areas, etc and are beatable again. Id wager NFL the day lines go up and on game day
Sean
Sean, idiots don't move NFL #s...................unless you are referring to clone bookmakers that move on oxygen.
Dan Gordon used to claim he was one.
Regardless of whether that did/does happen, there's still plenty of "banging into shape" that takes place after they're released to everyone.
Going to need a BeardedTaco gif response for this
Understood, just wanted to know if this claim was a myth or not. I've heard Philly Godfather say it in a radio interview.
CRIS and PINNY open first and let anyone wager.
This is just flat out wrong.
The Guppies move nothing I don't care how many there are. Those who believe books want even action on Sat/Sun are also delusional.
Greek has usually been first with NFL, but that may not continue. PInny won't open until either Cris or Greek is up.
Sorry, wasn't asking where lines open to the public. The two people Goats and I mentioned claim to have access before any openers are available anywhere, so I was asking if this is true or not.
Maybe a long time ago, but even if it's true somewhere now, those places are still going to copy pinny when they come up.
It's like the BOL openers, open at -3, sit there for 8 hours, then cris opens at -8 and BOL auto moves to 8.
No it's not true.
CRIS always has the sharpest line for the biggest limits when it comes to NFL openers.
Wouldn't stun me, though obviously I don't know what the books actually do. That sort of approach seems to make a lot of sense, you give up some potentially good lines in exchange for some pretty valuable independent information.
Only thing you could qualify as "soft" for the NFL are the openers. Tuesday lines are not exacly going to be a walk in the park.
Last sentence is actually not bad advice. Lots of opportunities on Sundays.
Greek went from 10k MLB gameday limits to now 1k. I know Spiro thing hurt but wowz. Just hope they can hold on as they are very solid.
Your right of course that was the purpose same thing that's still being done. Also to add a 5k bet in the 80's is a little different then a 5k now. The dust was the king in Poker and sports nobody couldn't touch it even after the trouble but then Corp America slowly destroy it to where they actually felt they needed to tear it down to build another city like there competitors.
two things
Lines are never soft in the NFL market. You may have a slighter edge early on in the week though I agree with you.
If you knew this information prior to last season why would you have your customers bet into perfect lines?
I doubt if Scott shares Sean's opinion that the lines were perfect on Friday nights, he had won releasing on Friday night in the past, and there are a few advantages to releasing later in the week also.
From what I can understand from this thread, it seems like the 'sharp' way of thinking is that lines are soft in the beginning of the week and by friday they've been bet into shape, as such that there's no edge to be found from friday onwards. I believe this is not correct and I agree with Ed that there are advantages to releasing later in the week.
Here's my story:
I once asked a linesmaker at one of the biggest books to pass me the sharp picks he could see coming in on his accounts. I wanted to know not only for my own wallet, but because I wanted to 'compete' in the Supercontest. Of course we could start a debate here on whether that's fair or not
Conclusion: Some sharps bet early in the week, when they believe they are getting the best number, others bet later in the week, once the line has moved toward their threshold. It's simple as that. Make your pick and try to get the best line available.
Seems like some wait because the limits increase, not because they're getting a better line.
True,
That's another reason. But still, they don't mind betting into 'shaped' lines.