I would think that if this all you use... you would have zero % of winning
petti, everything is built into the price and if the price is right per his numbers then that's all that matters b/c again the price represents everything.
Thanks for answering my question yesterday and de appreciate the leans .. I do have another question though .. Basically your looking for value in the line but couldn't a teams situation greatly affect their price? Do you look at what you think the teams odds of winning vs the price? I noticed many times your plays are below 500 teams and teams that aren't often considered "popular" which would make sense. Just curious of your mindset when making selections .. You don't have to share but thanks for what you do .
Thanks for answering my question yesterday and de appreciate the leans .. I do have another question though .. Basically your looking for value in the line but couldn't a teams situation greatly affect their price? Do you look at what you think the teams odds of winning vs the price? I noticed many times your plays are below 500 teams and teams that aren't often considered "popular" which would make sense. Just curious of your mindset when making selections .. You don't have to share but thanks for what you do .
In short, the line that you set yourself should reflect what you think the odds of that team winning is.
Great feedback .. So would it be safe to say almost any 10%+ movement would create instant value the other way? Ill use an example .. Alot of action on milw yesterday brought Phil's from -175 to -180 to as low as -155 early morning... Using this model the Phil's should have been a play at that price, hence why the line settled back to -175 by 11am...
Thanks for answering my question yesterday and de appreciate the leans .. I do have another question though .. Basically your looking for value in the line but couldn't a teams situation greatly affect their price? Do you look at what you think the teams odds of winning vs the price? I noticed many times your plays are below 500 teams and teams that aren't often considered "popular" which would make sense. Just curious of your mindset when making selections .. You don't have to share but thanks for what you do .
Anything I feel is important is part of the line I make. For ML's, it's basically the % chance I feel a team has to win. From there, you look at the books line and look for differences. For example, yesterday I had Stl to win 57.39%. That makes for a line of -1.347 line. That made +151 playable to me. When you aren't winning, it isn't always a lot of fun playing teams that aren't supposed to win, even by your own odds. You stop taking those games and go find the sure thing, like the Angels the last three nights , and you make it worse.
Great feedback .. So would it be safe to say almost any 10%+ movement would create instant value the other way? Ill use an example .. Alot of action on milw yesterday brought Phil's from -175 to -180 to as low as -155 early morning... Using this model the Phil's should have been a play at that price, hence why the line settled back to -175 by 11am...
But when it hit -155 no one knew where it would close. And if u didn't have ur own number beforehand, you would have the illusion of value creation due to the Anchor.
Great feedback .. So would it be safe to say almost any 10%+ movement would create instant value the other way? Ill use an example .. Alot of action on milw yesterday brought Phil's from -175 to -180 to as low as -155 early morning... Using this model the Phil's should have been a play at that price, hence why the line settled back to -175 by 11am...
Not necessarily. Obviously someone felt their was value at -155 but it's not a given. If you don't make your own line, you will never know. Just assuming there is value is not smart. You make a line -140, it is -160/+150. It drops to -135/+125. There is no value at that price. That value was before the move. The move back means someone feels there is value, but if you don't.
Is it safe to assume that this is a record you fully expect to change?
By definition, the 20+ cents value on the market has the highest EV of the plays.
Seems like you track this stuff, so I'm curious if your long-term number is closer to 60% winners instead of the absurd 6-25 you have this season.
I don't track it, never cared about it. I notice when the line moves a lot but I don't track it regularly. I only knew i was 6-23 because someone asked me about it so I did a quick check. A while ago I did 3-4 year check and the numbers across all sports for me when i beat a big move vs a big move against me were pretty similar(actually a little better with moves against me but the sample size for those were much smaller than beating a big move). I'm not one who fully expects to win all big line moves or lose all big moves against but I'd be surprised if the 6-25 doesn't get any better. If I was 6-25 with moves against me I would expect it to get better.
last week, Coops referred to 'Trading Bases' by Joe Peta. In his book, Joe describes his strategy for betting MLB, for which he uses Bill James' Pythagorean Win Expectancy based on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed to bet on games where he feels the line is off. Is this something you do too?
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Makes no sense. you would play a team no matter what the price is or never play a team no matter what the price is?
petti, everything is built into the price and if the price is right per his numbers then that's all that matters b/c again the price represents everything.
can't be worse then stevie's halos
Wow. How else do you decide what to bet on?
We'd be ok if we could beat those great Astros. Lose 3 series to them.
Scosica about to go off the deep end by leaving Hanson in the rotation and putting Williams back in the pen.
Life's not fair Kc. If it makes you feel any better I had LADodgers under 9.5 and those damn bookmakers cancelled my bet.
How long have you been betting?
+125 was what I would post the play at.
So I should feel good about my Pit +139 then?
Couldn't resist the self-back-pat. Not often I get that lucky as far as Market timing goes.
In short, the line that you set yourself should reflect what you think the odds of that team winning is.
Given the record Stevie recently posted for his results when he personally beats the closer by 20+ cents, no.
JC, Every single price is just a probability with 'juice' added.
Anything I feel is important is part of the line I make. For ML's, it's basically the % chance I feel a team has to win. From there, you look at the books line and look for differences. For example, yesterday I had Stl to win 57.39%. That makes for a line of -1.347 line. That made +151 playable to me. When you aren't winning, it isn't always a lot of fun playing teams that aren't supposed to win, even by your own odds. You stop taking those games and go find the sure thing, like the Angels the last three nights
Got +131 last night, looks too good now. Updating Goats numbers, it is 6-25 now.
But when it hit -155 no one knew where it would close. And if u didn't have ur own number beforehand, you would have the illusion of value creation due to the Anchor.
Looks too good? Don't ruin this for me SY you bastard (I feel the need to make everyone aware of the jest intended there).
My sample size is much smaller, but I am 2 - 7 in the same scenario.
Not necessarily. Obviously someone felt their was value at -155 but it's not a given. If you don't make your own line, you will never know. Just assuming there is value is not smart. You make a line -140, it is -160/+150. It drops to -135/+125. There is no value at that price. That value was before the move. The move back means someone feels there is value, but if you don't.
By definition, the 20+ cents value on the market has the highest EV of the plays.
Seems like you track this stuff, so I'm curious if your long-term number is closer to 60% winners instead of the absurd 6-25 you have this season.
I don't track it, never cared about it. I notice when the line moves a lot but I don't track it regularly. I only knew i was 6-23 because someone asked me about it so I did a quick check. A while ago I did 3-4 year check and the numbers across all sports for me when i beat a big move vs a big move against me were pretty similar(actually a little better with moves against me but the sample size for those were much smaller than beating a big move). I'm not one who fully expects to win all big line moves or lose all big moves against but I'd be surprised if the 6-25 doesn't get any better. If I was 6-25 with moves against me I would expect it to get better.
Depends on what you are trying to accomplish. If it is for your Fanduel, what's the point system?
last week, Coops referred to 'Trading Bases' by Joe Peta. In his book, Joe describes his strategy for betting MLB, for which he uses Bill James' Pythagorean Win Expectancy based on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed to bet on games where he feels the line is off. Is this something you do too?