Stevie hang in there brother, still a long season ahead, things will eventually turn. There is something that I was wondering, when you cap a baseball game, do streaks ever enter the equation? For example if you feel like team A is a play, if that team is on an extended losing streak would that take you off of them, or if team B is on a winning streak would that also get you off team A?
Not really. If a team is playing really bad, it will show up in their numbers and be factored into my line. If they are slumping but their secondary numbers are solid, it is more a case of them being a little unlucky and often you can get a good line with them.
I fine this thread funny first because I'm losing games like you couldn't have plan it better and here we have a guy by the name of Stevie Y and somebody who has 10 posts or something telling a proven winner not only in baseball but pretty much most sports to keep his chin up and act like a winner.
I fine that really amusing I don't know how many times I have to say it its a long season and your going to go through winning weeks and losing weeks you just hope the winning weeks are bigger then the losing weeks and come more often. Look around and take my word for it guys i know that are pretty good most are having a tough time.You have Circle doing great Bg doing well and coops just turned black its been a pretty tough year so far.
So let's chill with the Ra Ra were all grown ups here and we decide in the end who we play.t
that certainly puts things in perspective. tides turn tho as Kane said so hopefully your grind continues for us that will continue to follow. Thanks SY.
For those unaware, Stevie has been sharing picks in one form or another for like 15 years, so his "grind" is highly unlikely to cease due to a losing streak, no matter how bad. If he feels he has +EV bets and wants to share them, you'll be able to find them.
Get 3, give up 2 strike hits to the #7 and #8 hitters. Can't expect much else from the Milwaukee long relief which is why Gallardo getting his pitch count up early was a disaster.
Question it's top of the 6th first and third no out what is the whole infield doing in at best SS/2nd halfway in that spot I give a run and go down 2 for 2 outs. I have 4 At Bsts left snd I'm in there bullpen I'm worried about being down 2 runs. Infield in a 250 hitter becomes a 350 hitter and then the inning gets away from you.
Question it's top of the 6th first and third no out what is the whole infield doing in at best SS/2nd halfway in that spot I give a run and go down 2 for 2 outs. I have 4 At Bsts left snd I'm in there bullpen I'm worried about being down 2 runs. Infield in a 250 hitter becomes a 350 hitter and then the inning gets away from you.
Now he's trying to steal with 2 outs 2 on and Braun up it just makes no sense to me. I can't take this guy I hope the GM is watching. You lose you lose but play the game you have a singles hitter up there take a shot if you want he's a guy who knock in your 3 runs and is on of the premium home run hitter and now the announcers are trying to say it was a good decision.
The more baseball I watch (and I watch a fucking LOT) the more amazed I am at how horrible most of the managers are. Bunting far too often, taking the bat out of their best hitters hands like that stolen base attempt OT mentioned, pitching to the other teams best hitter with a base open & the game on the line, allowing bad fundamental baseball, pitch count bullshit, etc., etc., etc.
Hear I am thinking I could win this Rsnger game 1st pitch HR tie game Nathan 17 saves in a row until I need him
It's so messed up its almost funny. Yea dog I watch a lot baseball myself and the things u see really make you want shake someone and say why.
we win some, we lose some, i am fine with that. losing streaks, winning streaks whatever.
but what i find extremely troubling and alarming is the time we devote to CLV and line shopping and finding the best number, I hit Mil today at 112. So is this a timing issue or what are we talking about here? it happened once last week that got my attention in the same fashion.
Not trying to step on toes or bash or insult because i truly appreciate SY's efforts and understand the work he puts in, but am i to suspend my belief in CLV and getting the best number everytime for SY's plays? let me know if it is just me and i am over-reacting or not. and i understand lower limits are forcing SY to hold off on posting his plays as well so as to not remove his Edge, but I can't believe SY played the Brewers today at 126, when better lines were out there for an extended period of time. and yes, i realize that i might sound like a douche bag given SY's ability and he is cool enough to post plays here. i might also come off as ungrateful bitch boy, but i am trying to make a point without coming off as a dick.
we win some, we lose some, i am fine with that. losing streaks, winning streaks whatever.
but what i find extremely troubling and alarming is the time we devote to CLV and line shopping and finding the best number, I hit Mil today at 112. So is this a timing issue or what are we talking about here? it happened once last week that got my attention in the same fashion.
Not trying to step on toes or bash or insult because i truly appreciate SY's efforts and understand the work he puts in, but am i to suspend my belief in CLV and getting the best number everytime for SY's plays? let me know if it is just me and i am over-reacting or not. and i understand lower limits are forcing SY to hold off on posting his plays as well so as to not remove his Edge, but I can't believe SY played the Brewers today at 126, when better lines were out there for an extended period of time. and yes, i realize that i might sound like a douche bag given SY's ability and he is cool enough to post plays here. i might also come off as ungrateful bitch boy, but i am trying to make a point without coming off as a dick.
it isn't the losing, it is the numbers.
No, it's not a timing issue. In all my plays this year, when I have beat the close by more then 20 cents, I am 6-23.
I can't believe SY played the Brewers today at 126, when better lines were out there for an extended period of time.
Since you're at least somewhat looking at this from a market perspective, here's something else to consider... Even at -126 (and as usual, better lines were out there when Stevie posted, he's just pretty conservative in his grading), you could have scalped MIL at close (only for a penny or two, but you get the idea). This means that even though Stevie played it post-move, it moved another 10+ cents, and yet after all that movement, no one influential enough saw value in PIT to knock it back down.
This happens in other sports like CBK as well. You'll see RAS or Stevie move a side in the morning... then later on, another influential bettor/syndicate will hit it post-move. So I guess my point is while it's obviously optimal to get the best line that was ever available, that doesn't mean a line is never still +EV once it's moved. If a poster was constantly playing nothing but post-move steam, it would be one thing, but if a long-time respected capper does this selectively, I wouldn't think much of it.
Just something to consider that popped into my head. Not looking to debate it, but figured I'd throw it out there.
always welcome other perspectives, so thanks for the input. also let me clarify the above quote. it was not intended as a i can't believe he played it at that number, what an ass.
it was more of a i know that when he played Mil, it most certainly wasn't for that price.
I do feel for the predicament he is in as far trying to share the wealth while still getting down his own action. again, not trying to be a jerk and not bitching about the losing, that comes with the whole betting long term thing.
but my overall point is my pricing concerns and releasing of less than optimal prices which some won't get either leading to even worse numbers which is a long term issue.
still, no solution exist as he has to make his plays and keep them profitable while still being gracious enough to share. i don't know.
Stevie Y,
Your updated record is always perfect I'm having trouble with this weeks. I have a week of 3-7 -4.01 and with your updated record you are showing 2-8 -6.57, the only place we can be off is the Houston game of 5-20 which was 1-156 a difference of 2.56. You were 22-31 -9.78 going into week of 5-20 and are updating at 24-39 -16.35, I have 25-38 -13.79. If I am wrong I apologize but checked weeks totals over and over. Thank You for sharing.
Stevie Y,
Your updated record is always perfect I'm having trouble with this weeks. I have a week of 3-7 -4.01 and with your updated record you are showing 2-8 -6.57, the only place we can be off is the Houston game of 5-20 which was 1-156 a difference of 2.56. You were 22-31 -9.78 going into week of 5-20 and are updating at 24-39 -16.35, I have 25-38 -13.79. If I am wrong I apologize but checked weeks totals over and over. Thank You for sharing.
Stevie Y,
Your updated record is always perfect I'm having trouble with this weeks. I have a week of 3-7 -4.01 and with your updated record you are showing 2-8 -6.57, the only place we can be off is the Houston game of 5-20 which was 1-156 a difference of 2.56. You were 22-31 -9.78 going into week of 5-20 and are updating at 24-39 -16.35, I have 25-38 -13.79. If I am wrong I apologize but checked weeks totals over and over. Thank You for sharing.
Thanks, your right. I had the Houston 5/20 6-5 win mixed up with the 5-4 dropped pop up loss from a couple days earlier.
Funny stuff. The guys is in negative units going into June and panic sets in. Wagering on sports is obviously something a lot of people should not be doing. He's gone from it looks to be around 100 thank you's for a play to around five now. Oh how people want to jump ship when things don't go well. Things will turn his track record says it will. Negative variance happens. Stay the course.
Comments
Not really. If a team is playing really bad, it will show up in their numbers and be factored into my line. If they are slumping but their secondary numbers are solid, it is more a case of them being a little unlucky and often you can get a good line with them.
I fine that really amusing I don't know how many times I have to say it its a long season and your going to go through winning weeks and losing weeks you just hope the winning weeks are bigger then the losing weeks and come more often. Look around and take my word for it guys i know that are pretty good most are having a tough time.You have Circle doing great Bg doing well and coops just turned black its been a pretty tough year so far.
So let's chill with the Ra Ra were all grown ups here and we decide in the end who we play.t
For those unaware, Stevie has been sharing picks in one form or another for like 15 years, so his "grind" is highly unlikely to cease due to a losing streak, no matter how bad. If he feels he has +EV bets and wants to share them, you'll be able to find them.
Huh? Guess I'm missing something. Wanna elaborate?
I believed they were and was very happy to see Stevie Y playing them.
Too logical.
It's so messed up its almost funny. Yea dog I watch a lot baseball myself and the things u see really make you want shake someone and say why.
but what i find extremely troubling and alarming is the time we devote to CLV and line shopping and finding the best number, I hit Mil today at 112. So is this a timing issue or what are we talking about here? it happened once last week that got my attention in the same fashion.
Not trying to step on toes or bash or insult because i truly appreciate SY's efforts and understand the work he puts in, but am i to suspend my belief in CLV and getting the best number everytime for SY's plays? let me know if it is just me and i am over-reacting or not. and i understand lower limits are forcing SY to hold off on posting his plays as well so as to not remove his Edge, but I can't believe SY played the Brewers today at 126, when better lines were out there for an extended period of time. and yes, i realize that i might sound like a douche bag given SY's ability and he is cool enough to post plays here. i might also come off as ungrateful bitch boy, but i am trying to make a point without coming off as a dick.
it isn't the losing, it is the numbers.
No, it's not a timing issue. In all my plays this year, when I have beat the close by more then 20 cents, I am 6-23.
Since you're at least somewhat looking at this from a market perspective, here's something else to consider... Even at -126 (and as usual, better lines were out there when Stevie posted, he's just pretty conservative in his grading), you could have scalped MIL at close (only for a penny or two, but you get the idea). This means that even though Stevie played it post-move, it moved another 10+ cents, and yet after all that movement, no one influential enough saw value in PIT to knock it back down.
This happens in other sports like CBK as well. You'll see RAS or Stevie move a side in the morning... then later on, another influential bettor/syndicate will hit it post-move. So I guess my point is while it's obviously optimal to get the best line that was ever available, that doesn't mean a line is never still +EV once it's moved. If a poster was constantly playing nothing but post-move steam, it would be one thing, but if a long-time respected capper does this selectively, I wouldn't think much of it.
Just something to consider that popped into my head. Not looking to debate it, but figured I'd throw it out there.
it was more of a i know that when he played Mil, it most certainly wasn't for that price.
I do feel for the predicament he is in as far trying to share the wealth while still getting down his own action. again, not trying to be a jerk and not bitching about the losing, that comes with the whole betting long term thing.
but my overall point is my pricing concerns and releasing of less than optimal prices which some won't get either leading to even worse numbers which is a long term issue.
still, no solution exist as he has to make his plays and keep them profitable while still being gracious enough to share. i don't know.
Your updated record is always perfect I'm having trouble with this weeks. I have a week of 3-7 -4.01 and with your updated record you are showing 2-8 -6.57, the only place we can be off is the Houston game of 5-20 which was 1-156 a difference of 2.56. You were 22-31 -9.78 going into week of 5-20 and are updating at 24-39 -16.35, I have 25-38 -13.79. If I am wrong I apologize but checked weeks totals over and over. Thank You for sharing.
I think you're correct.
http://kostats.com/PickResultsBT.htm
Thanks, your right. I had the Houston 5/20 6-5 win mixed up with the 5-4 dropped pop up loss from a couple days earlier.
[URL="[IMG]http://images.zaazu.com/img/vomit-boy01-vomit-puke-sick-smiley-emoticon-000652-large.gif[/IMG]"]
That Tiger was very painful to watch..
There's no bottom or top until you retire from betting.
True dat. Does this work better:
When will this negative variance turn around? (yes it is unknowable, thus the rhetorical nature of my query)
Giggling as I type as is my wont. Smile through the winning and losing alike.
Eddie
i can only assume you noticed the lack of panic in my posts as the term 'negative variance' clearly appears therein.