MLB, global warming and Totals..Check-In
homerplayer
Senior Member
give me your local forecast for the home openers on Monday. here in Pixburgh, looking at mid 40's and 30% chance of rain. that makes me say Under. snow again tomorrow high in the mid 30's...blah!!! did you guys know the worst heat wave in america in 1936 was preceded by one of the coldest winters ever? could be 100 degrees everyday in July this year, just like 1936!!!
two things i need here fellers...
1. a database where i can query avg runs/gm correlated to low temps?
2. your local forecast if your mets or nationals or some northern or northeastern team.
temps in the 40s and high humidity? how far can a baseball possibly travel. physics majors on BT?
two things i need here fellers...
1. a database where i can query avg runs/gm correlated to low temps?
2. your local forecast if your mets or nationals or some northern or northeastern team.
temps in the 40s and high humidity? how far can a baseball possibly travel. physics majors on BT?
Comments
SU: 528-528 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -106.1
O/U: 472-522-52 (0.14, 47.5%) avg total: 8.9
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB
Team 4.5 8.6 0.7 3.7 6.7 10.1 8.5 7.3
Opp 4.5 8.6 0.7 3.7 6.7 10.1 8.5 7.3
http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sdql=temperature%3C50+and+season%3E2000&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
Love this homer, proof that I am rubbing off on you..
might want to watch how you are phrasing that:
awesome site thanks!!!
and forgive the stupidity, but how would one use the same query but filter by league?
Worm, agreed, but was surprised to see the avg Total was a shade under 9.
And i will tell everyone on BT this right flippin now...Samardzija will be all up on my Fanduel rosters, weather permitting
8 innings
4 hits
12 K's
1 R
0 ER
3 BBs
All sorts of information on this site
i assume most will recognize the sentence above is a link waiting to be followed, but just in case...
42 degrees
30% chance of rain
Wind at 12 MPH, figure that wind chill out
Day Apr 1
Few Showers
43°FHigh
Few Showers
Chance of rain:
30%
Wind:
NW at 12 mph
Humidity:
67%
UV Index:
5 - Moderate
Sunrise:
7:22 am
Moonset:
11:11 am
Moonphase:
Waning Gibbous
What you're asking for here is for someone to give away the store -- for someone to have an edge on a major market and just give it away by posting it on a public forum. Why on earth would someone do that? First off, in this situation there's no edge because you're far from the first person to consider weather. Second off, if there were, I can guarantee you that anybody who has put in the time and work to profit from it would not post it here because their edge would disappear.
You link to this forum as though information like that is exchanged all the time here. The kind of information that provides a constant edge is not the type of thing that gets posted here or in any public forum. I can think of 2 such posts in the entirety of this forum. One of them was a legit, helpful, long term bias that still holds an edge and I even recall a few posters questioning why the person posted what they did. The other was a guy giving away the dollar store, as in it wasn't really valuable information; he just thought that it was (many squares here ate that one up).
The "information" exchanged here is almost exclusively coin flippers documenting their picks. Very few here have an actual edge, and those that do, while they may post plays sometimes, are certainly not giving away the recipe.
I'm not trying to be rude here, just explaining why a question like that is useless since the only way that you'll ever get an answer is if the answer itself is useless.
Day Apr 1
Partly Cloudy
39°FHigh
Partly Cloudy
Chance of precip:
10%
Wind:
NW at 15 mph
Humidity:
46%
UV Index:
5 - Moderate
Sunrise:
6:33 am
Moonset:
10:16 am
Moonphase:
Waning Gibbous
Also not trying to be rude here, but aren't you contradicting your own premise within the same paragraph?
The link was provided so that readers/posters could apply logic and move from one step to the next. you could post every edge imaginable on this forum, 80% of posters could play it and the Market would not blink. thus the link to a thread describing the practice of limits, of which 5Dimes is not the first nor the only book to slap limits on winning players. So basically the point i was hoping readers would draw there is just about any action placed by players is going to do little to make the Market react, so is someone losing their Edge a valid concern? Heck no.
and again, with a complete lack of rudeness, but a statement of fact, you have very little to zero respect for 90%+ of posters on this board. Yet you feel that any valuable information posted here will be degraded once read? Be honest here, you think/know 99% of the posters here will never place a single wager that will move a number.
are you seriously telling the BT Board right now that information posted here will be so unique and novel that Sharps, Pros and Syndicates haven't already sucked the Edge out of it?
First off I just thought you linked to BT in general, I didn't even click on it to be honest. Now I see your point, but you're wrong. Sure, 99% of people here won't move the line. But all it takes is 1%. And good information has a way of spreading quickly.
You are vastly underestimating how many heavy hitters read these forums. I could name 2 guys that I know personally, 4-5 more that I have/I've had "e-relationships" with, and about a half dozen more that I'm "aware of" that read here and can and do move numbers. You post some kind of seriously good information here, and the market will react.
You think worm would ever post his baseball methods here? Edward his basketball methods? StevieY his models? There's a reason for that. Come on, man, this isn't rocket science.
This is exactly my point. If someone has that sort of information, they sure as shit aren't sharing it here.
No. My premise is two-fold. 1. The edge that you're seeking with weather doesn't exist. 2. If it did, nobody would be sharing it.
For real? I once again submit that these two statements lack even the slightest amount of congruence.
Here are the current Twins' team records for cold games, courtesy of the National Weather Service and Baseball Almanac:
Coldest home opener: 34 degrees (Apr. 14, 1962 vs. Angels)
Coldest home game: 32 degrees (May 2, 1967 vs. Yankees)
Not only will daytime highs likely hold in the 30s, but stiff northwest winds will likely hold wind chills in the 20s!
Thanks for completely ignoring my last 2 posts. Good talk.
Great insight. I bet nobody else knows this.
that was actually C&P from weather channel dot com, thus the italics
it must be hell for you always being the smartest man in the room.
4 games Under the total
that worked out pretty well for me
Right. That's why it's widely known. And baked into the line, as several people here told you. This is just like your political thread, where you asked for advice, received it, and then proceeded to completely ignore it. Why even ask?
For being the smartest guy on the forum you sure do dismiss a lot of data based on the messenger. But fuck, if i have to hold your hand math whiz, i guess i will...
47.5% Overs equates to 52.5% Unders
What is our B/E point on straight wagers again?
Now what is our B/E point on reduced wagers?
You can't be this dense, so it must be your absolute hate for me that blinds you from having the ability to logically progress through the data.
And of course everything is baked into the price, or i wouldn't believe the in EMT. And trusting in EMT would lead us to which next step in our quest for knowledge?
temperature < 50 and season > 2000 and total < 8
SU: 78-78 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -105.9
O/U: 70-84-2 (0.42, 45.5%) avg total: 7.2
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB
Team 3.8 8.1 0.8 3.5 7.4 10.1 7.1 7.3
Opp 3.8 8.1 0.8 3.5 7.4 10.1 7.1 7.3
You know when I really turned the corner on sports betting? When I became humble enough to recognize i didn't know everything and needed help.
"inadequate sample size, totals are shaded higher than -110, you were wrong in that one thread that one time, you don't read any of my posts, i'm going to be a mod one day so watch your ass, never question me as i am TCJ and always right"
Way back in post 3, I ran a one proportion z-test on the data to see if it was significantly different from 51.2% (-105 B/E). It's not. That means that there is not enough evidence to say that the true proportion is > 51.2. The same is true with your smaller data set with totals < 8 that you just posted. So yea, that means the sample size is too small and/or the proportion isn't far enough away from .512 (more of the later for the large data set and more of the former for the small data set). And that's not even taking into consideration -110, at which point the p-value is almost .5 which is enormous.
Here, this will help you:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=one+prop+z-test&f1=.512&x=0&y=0&f=ProportionTest.p0_.512&f2=994&f=ProportionTest.n_994&f3=.525&f=ProportionTest.phat_.525&a=*FVarOpt.1-_***ProportionTest.phat--.***ProportionTest.k---.*--
If you need me to walk you through what any of that means, holla at me, brah.
Win 4/4/13 12:35pm Reduced Baseball 951 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 -105* (T Wood - L must Start J McDonald - R must Start)
Loss 4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 923 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Under 8 -115* (C Buchholz - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)
Win 4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 901 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Under 7 +102* (K Slowey - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
Win 4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 903 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 -112* (E Jackson - R must Start W Rodriguez - L must Start)
Loss 4/3/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 905 San Diego Padres/New York Mets Under 7 -103* (C Richard - L must Start M Harvey - R must Start)
Loss 4/3/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 929 Los Angeles Angels/Cincinnati Reds Under 7 +100* (C Wilson - L must Start M Latos - R must Start)
Win 4/3/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 7½ -105* (E Santana - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start)
Win 4/1/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 917 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 7 -105* (J Shields - R must Start C Sale - L must Start)
Win 4/1/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Detroit Tigers/Minnesota Twins Under 7 -105* (J Verlander - R must Start V Worley - R must Start)
Win 4/1/13 4:10pm MLB Baseball 923 Los Angeles Angels/Cincinnati Reds Under 7 +120* (J Weaver - R must Start J Cueto - R must Start)
Win 4/1/13 1:35pm Reduced Baseball 905 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 -110* (J Samardzija - R must Start A Burnett - R must Start)
Pending
Pending 4/4/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 967 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Under 7 +135* (R Dempster - R must Start A Pettitte - L must Start)
Pending 4/4/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 957 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Under 6½ -115* (C Lee - L must Start K Medlen - R must Start)
my bottom is doing well
NYY 44 degrees for first pitch but supposed wind blowing straight out to center 12 MPH or so and afternoon start.
CHW 39 degrees, wind blowing in from left center 10+ MPH (wind chill factor that)
1 Pending
Pending 4/5/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 927 Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox Under 8½ -105* (B Beavan - R must Start J Quintana - L must Start)
39 degrees
wind blowing in from left center up to 13 MPH
season > 2000 and temperature < 40 and total < 8.5
SU: 20-20 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -105.4
O/U: 12-24-4 (-0.78, 33.3%) avg total: 7.6
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB
Team 3.4 7.5 0.5 3.1 7.1 10.1 8.5 6.7
Opp 3.4 7.5 0.5 3.1 7.1 10.1 8.5 6.7
Either going to be a good thing or bad thing or even a possibly neutral thing that i took off work today cuz my son had an invite a special person to breakfast and book fair at school today. I really thought this thread was done until Sept, and i also thought the Tex forecast was wrong, but it actually is correct. any of these games actually being played is another story. Put more on the ChC game than the others and the least amount on the Det and Tex ones with winds blowing out to Right Center at 11+MPH in both.
4/10/13 12:18pm Pending 4/10/13 8:05pm Reduced Baseball 961 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Under 7 -110* (K Lohse - R must Start S Feldman - R must Start)
4/10/13 12:18pm Pending 4/10/13 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 965 Toronto Blue Jays/Detroit Tigers Under 9 +100* (M Buehrle - L must Start R Porcello - R must Start)
4/10/13 12:18pm Pending 4/10/13 2:05pm Reduced Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays/Texas Rangers Under 8½ +100* (M Moore - L must Start D Holland - L must Start)
4/10/13 12:18pm Pending 4/10/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 973 Minnesota Twins/Kansas City Royals Under 8 +101* (L Hendriks - R must Start W Davis - R must Start)
no reason to press and be greedy. any small loss will be accepted and any small gain will augment the bottom line and set up a hopefully profitable season tailing cappers here at BT.
12 PM Wed Apr 10
Cloudy
38°F
Cloudy
FEELS LIKE:
28°
HUMIDITY:
96%
PRECIP:
5%
WIND:
NNW at 18 mph
Show 15 Minute Details
Lunchtime Recipes
Your Kids Will Love These Simple Recipes
1 PM
Light Rain
37°
Light Rain
FEELS LIKE:
27°
HUMIDITY:
100%
PRECIP:
80%
WIND:
NNW at 18 mph
Show 15 Minute Details
2 PM
Cloudy
39°
Cloudy
FEELS LIKE:
30°
HUMIDITY:
93%
PRECIP:
10%
WIND:
NW at 17 mph
Show 15 Minute Details
3 PM
Cloudy
43°
Cloudy
FEELS LIKE:
35°
HUMIDITY:
82%
PRECIP:
0%
WIND:
NW at 16 mph
Show 15 Minute Details
4 PM
Mostly Cloudy
46°
Mostly Cloudy
FEELS LIKE:
40°
HUMIDITY:
77%
PRECIP:
0%
WIND:
NW at 15 mph
Det 40, 11 mph winds, real feel 35 out to Right Center
KC 43 13 mph cross wind from left to right