Question for steviey
increasedodd
Senior Member
Since you started posting here or even by year previously, do you know what your records would be under the following situations?
Nfl. 1/2 point worse than you posted
Cfb sides 1/2 and 1 point worse than you posted
Cfb totals 1/2, 1 and 2 points worse than you posted
Cbb sides 1, 1.5, and 2 points worse than you posted
Cbb totals 1.5 and 2 points worse than you posted
Thanks a bunch in advance!
Sean
Nfl. 1/2 point worse than you posted
Cfb sides 1/2 and 1 point worse than you posted
Cfb totals 1/2, 1 and 2 points worse than you posted
Cbb sides 1, 1.5, and 2 points worse than you posted
Cbb totals 1.5 and 2 points worse than you posted
Thanks a bunch in advance!
Sean
Comments
Exact numbers, no. I'm not a CLV person, never cared. However, I had a back-channel discussion with someone a few months ago about it so I did some checking on how I did when the line closed 1.5+ against me. Every year I went back, nothing changed. Last three years 30-22, last 7 years total, I am 115-88. I stopped there as I pretty much wasted a day I will never get back to tell me what I already knew and why I never cared.
I did do a quick check with CBB the last two years at the same time and my record when the line moved against me 1.5+ pts was better than when I beat the line by 2+ pts. Goats will tell you that is probably not limited to the last two years.
Thank you for the response.
Also before I go into numbers, congrats on doing so well. I see you as one of the best two cappers out there.
What I was getting at is I can't bet your picks at your numbers. Every book I have now has me on delay. What Im trying to figure out is how I would have done historically if I get a point worse or so.
Based on since you started your service in CBB, I get the following.
On totals record is currently 12-7. If 1/2 point worse it becomes 12-7, if 1 point worse, 11-7-1, if 1.5 point worse 10-8-1, if 2 points worse 10-9.
On sides, record is currently 53-43. If 1/2 point worse it becomes 48-43, if 1 point worse 44-48-4, if 1.5 point worse 43-52-1, and if 2 points worse 39-53-4.
While these are small sample sizes, it seems if I can bet at 1/2 point worse on all games I should but since I'm currently getting about .8points worse I should skip CBB unfortunately.
You don't have this type of analysis going back further do you?
Thanks
Sean
No, I don't. I would use the value of the points you are losing instead of 2 months of results.
For CBB sides pinnacle values 1/2 a point right at 10 cents for fair value on the dropdown. If that isn't the exact value, it's pretty close.
So for 1/2 point worse than release, you are laying in essence -120 instead of -110 on the play. -110 win% needed is 52.4%. -120 win% needed is 54.5%. At 1 point worse you are laying about -130 which is 56.5% to breakeven, so you are probably better passing at 1 point off side releases, unless you think your capper is hitting 57% +
Problem is you can't pass on some picks and take others. The ones that move 2-3 points are better picks than ones that don't move.
This is a great service, but it's been too good making it hard to bet - much like RAS (combine the two and I'm out of books!)
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Hi Stevie . Last year , I won a marginal amount buying 3 points in Cbb at -165. This year , I am able to buy 4 points for -188 . The Greek , by way of example , charges -220 for 3 points and -280 for 4 points . Additionally , my results were not based on an insignificant number of plays ; I probably bought the 3 points in 500 games . Any suggestions on the best way to proceed ? Buy the points only where total is above/below a certain number ? Only bet games where the line has already moved in my direction . The guy allowing 4 will cut me off after a while , but the guy with 3 will let me " fire " away
From what I found, there is never a reason to buy 2 points at -150 if you can buy 3 points at -170. There are spots where it is very solid but the 3 pt buy is still better.
At Pk, buying either way, BE is -180
Home fav 1-3.5 are terrible buys Road Dogs 1-3.5 are BE between mid -180's to low -190's
Home fav 4-6 are all BE between -188 to -200 Road dogs are BE -190 except for 6 which dips because you aren't getting the 3(-178)
Home fav 6.5-8.5 are all BE around -176 to -178 Road dogs 6.5-8.5 are all BE between -188 and -198
Home fav 9-15.5 are all at least -179, most in the mid -180's Road dogs 9-15.5 are all BE low-mid -180's and above, except 13.5 which is -165 and may just be noise.
Home favs 16+ start to suffer from sample size(all above has sample size >= 300), and the results bounce around way too much to be used. Road dog 16+ suffer the same
Away Fav 1-3.5 are bad buys Home dogs 1 and 1.5 are not worth it, 2-3.5 is anywhere between -188 and -212
Away Fav 4-5.5 are BE around -190, 6 suffers from losing the 3 Home Dogs 4-5.5 are BE upper -180's to -205, 6's suffer
At this point, the sample size starts to suffer a little but from 6.5 to 11.5, Away Favs are pretty consistent with a BE in the mid -180's, Home dogs start bouncing a little
6.5 -173
7.0 -172
7.5 -206
8.0 -164
8.5 -203
9.0 -196
9.5 -215
10.0 -181
10.5 -225
11.0 -192
11.5 -225
Your forgetting one important factor and that's the cost of the service. You have to arrange to have a few books and add a couple of slow moving locals. There limits may be low but There out there. Add a less then A/B rated book off shore you know one that will keep you up at night if your going to get paid or not. This is the price you pay for fame. Also if you do use Locals negotiate a reduced juice Locals with high volume will do that provided you give enough action to make it worth there while.
From what I understand people are getting down at released numbers but there are a few and you'll have to figure that one out for yourself.
Nobody is giving that up.