Dr. bob is full of excuses
speculator
Senior Member
i was reading dr. bob's explanations on wk13 picks. one of his picks were Ten+7 at home vs. Hou, he said that it was a good pick, Ten outgained Hou, but lost due to 6 turnovers, and turnovers are random.
i lost all repect for him after reading the explanation. 3 ints and 2 fumbles by ten's QB are not random, they were forced turnovers! please, Tom Brady threw only 4 ints this year not because he was lucky... because he is Good, playing on a good team...
the most surprising thing about this: dr.bob is still in business
i lost all repect for him after reading the explanation. 3 ints and 2 fumbles by ten's QB are not random, they were forced turnovers! please, Tom Brady threw only 4 ints this year not because he was lucky... because he is Good, playing on a good team...
the most surprising thing about this: dr.bob is still in business
Comments
Never used him or even looked at his plays but I've seen some of his excuse's via cut and paste from posters and it's nice that your sticking up for your guy but the excuse's are lame and should never be used. Does he ever come out and say how lucky he was that this particular game won and covered or is it just when he loses a game. Personally if I paid for his plays and some lost the last thing I want to hear is some bull-shit why. It's like he telling you we had the right side but lost. The right side is the winning side. I've seen his plays listed on other sites and I just by pass it. Since your a customer honest question what exactly is a strong opinion as opposed to an Opinion.
Years ago you could find big value in the NFL betting on teams that had been - in recovering fumbles vs teams that were + because they appeared worse/better than they really are. Dr bob used situations like this to win in the 80's. Obviously other players caught on many years ago and you won't find these angles anymore.
This used to work in college in certain situations as well. No more.
2 things
1. i love reading your posts
2. i have tremendous respect for you OT
However, I disagree with this. not strongly as we both have opinions on the matter and i would love to have guys from both sides debate this question. i would like to start a thread on it, but fear it would fall flat.
when you say the right side is the winning side, i am not going to say you are wrong as i can respect a results driven approach.
i would like to open the following question for discussion, not just to you OT, but the BT family:
would you rather see the results or the market agree with the capper?
no joke OT, love your shit and keep those NBA plays rolling.
To tell someone the winning side is the right side is one of the worst lessons you can teach. Imagine going all in with Js against As pre-flop and winning, then telling your kid "the winning side is the right side". You just fucked your kid over until he loses enough times where he learns not to trust your "wisdom". This is an oversimplification, but is the easiest way to rebutt "the right side is the winning side".
Valid questions and good topics raised in there.
I'll take a stronger stance and say the right side is not always the winning side. IMO there are losing sides that you can go back and examine and make an extremely valid case that if the game was replayed 1000 times you would have the winning side > 52.4% of the time. It's a short run vs. long run issue. Being solely results-oriented is a mistake IMO.
EDIT: See MachineGun's post above that I hadn't seen until after composing my own. Solid answer on that topic.
As for your other questions, if it's a capper with an extremely long history of winning and I'm at least somewhat familiar with his background, methods, etc. (who are just about the only cappers I care about these days), I'm far less concerned with market agreement than results.
Thank You for the kind words and always look forward to your posts. Of course there's a right side and a wrong side but as Goats said the right side is not always the winning side. I get tired of hearing the phase I had the right side but I lost. It may come to a surprise to some people present company excluded here because you really have some good sports minds in this thread but you not always on the right side, you may think you are but not always. I just got tired of hearing that I had right side but I lost. So I got into the habit of saying the right side is the winning side. But as we know there's always a right side.
As far as results or Market agreement I'll take the results. But there are exceptions.
Not playing semantics or trying to be an ass, but that's not true. There's no right side if you lay -110 on a fair coin flip. Extreme example, but some games at some lines have to be dead on, making both sides -EV if you're laying vig.
I fucking love this!!!!! but since i can't buy the company, it is going in my sig, if you don't mind. beautiful in content, simplicity and delivery. simple as far as easy to understand, but i cannot overstate the importance of it.
i am getting a little teary eyed here reading it again. it is genius. perfection.
i wanted to go with "you mean there isn't an edge on every game?" but then that would be misconstrued and we would have two pages of drivel arguing over semantics. but you see guys throwing out 8, 10 or more plays on an NFL weekend and you just know a shit storm is brewing. lines mature, get sharper from Sunday night to the next Sunday KO. so it is with the season. lines get sharper as the season progresses and more data is collected on each team.
for real Goats, that is beautiful. i hope others feel the same way.
To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure what's so special about what I posted above, but glad you liked it... I think.
Agreed. It's actually a lot on the extreme side since we can know a coin is fair but we can never "know" a line is dead on, I just added it as an illustration. I could have just started with "Some games..."
if you look at his best bets in the last 5 yrs, i am very sure tht he is no better than 50 to 50
or so
Kelly devotees can.
hard to articulate exactly why i found it so profound, and it is just that. should be a sticky thread message or warning for newbies and rec bettors, and even some experienced bettors.
was talking to a guy at work the other day and just found out he bets, only his second year i think. i actually told him to come to BT to learn a lot real fast. last Thursday we ran into each other and got to taking Falcons v Saints. long story short (too late) i ended our talk with just cause there is a game doesn't mean you have to bet it.
there is not a right side to every game. and as the year progresses, +EV sides are going to be harder and harder to come by. it would take me about 3 or 4 paragraphs to get that point across, but you did it in a few short sentences. i hope new bettors comprehend that. it was just a great nugget of advice.
i still like girls.
He is transparent. His record clearly shows that he's a loser the last time I looked a few months ago.
What stats of his show a winning record? Are you breaking out only certain years?