This week's CFB and NFL picks+write ups ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
CFB: 5-3 +1.70 units
NFL: 2-2-1 -0.20 units
Note: We will see a sharp decrease in volume over the next few weeks until the bowls get going. Late-season NFL also means a decrease in volume. So far, this is what we've got ...
Georgia +7 1/2 -- Let's get something right out of the way -- this is weakest Alabama edition of the past four years. You have the '09 national title team, the '10 team that whipped Michigan St. in the bowl, the '11 national title team and now this one. What's the big difference? Quite a bit. It starts with a lack of NFL-caliber in the skill spots. The previous teams mentioned had guys like Julio Jones, McElroy, Ingram and Richardson. This offense has a serviceable QB, an overweight and slow RB in Lacy, an up-and-comer in RB Yeldon and nothing special at WR whatsoever, and that's when three of the top four targets are actually healthy and playing. Even the defense, we'd argue, is not as good talent-wise as the past few years. Still good. And very good for "this season" which has been a weak one, in our opinion, across the board in terms of skill players. And that's kinda the story of the SEC. You have five excellent defensive teams (Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida and South Caro) and one team with a good defense and incredible QB (A&M). What we're trying to do is paint the picture that this has been a defensive conference partly because the stop units mentioned above are that good and partly because outside of A&M and Tennessee (on its very best and healthiest day) there isn't much in the way of good offenses. Georgia is working with a defense that features, by our count, up to six NFL players. Offensively, the Dawgs lack perimeter play makers, but have done well to get their running game going. We don't see much difference talent-wise between QBs McCarron and Murray. When picking Georgia last week, we talked about how we were nervous laying points with HC Richt, but did it anyway. Now, we've got Richt right where we want him -- as an underdog. It took quite a while due to suspensions and injuries to get this Georgia defense together and thriving as a whole, but now that it is, they are well-equipped to put major heat on Bama in this setting. Our trouble with this line is that the public is allowing the oddsmakers to price this league just as it has done the past few years. Hence, the line on this game. It's high. Too high. Given the perceived flow and the lack of skill players or desire by the coaches to try anything crazy with so much on the line, what you have is a defensive struggle in the making that fits right into the same type of game we've seen quite a bit this season in this conference. 17-10. 14-10. 20-17. 13-10. 17-13. Ring a bell?
NFL: 2-2-1 -0.20 units
Note: We will see a sharp decrease in volume over the next few weeks until the bowls get going. Late-season NFL also means a decrease in volume. So far, this is what we've got ...
Georgia +7 1/2 -- Let's get something right out of the way -- this is weakest Alabama edition of the past four years. You have the '09 national title team, the '10 team that whipped Michigan St. in the bowl, the '11 national title team and now this one. What's the big difference? Quite a bit. It starts with a lack of NFL-caliber in the skill spots. The previous teams mentioned had guys like Julio Jones, McElroy, Ingram and Richardson. This offense has a serviceable QB, an overweight and slow RB in Lacy, an up-and-comer in RB Yeldon and nothing special at WR whatsoever, and that's when three of the top four targets are actually healthy and playing. Even the defense, we'd argue, is not as good talent-wise as the past few years. Still good. And very good for "this season" which has been a weak one, in our opinion, across the board in terms of skill players. And that's kinda the story of the SEC. You have five excellent defensive teams (Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida and South Caro) and one team with a good defense and incredible QB (A&M). What we're trying to do is paint the picture that this has been a defensive conference partly because the stop units mentioned above are that good and partly because outside of A&M and Tennessee (on its very best and healthiest day) there isn't much in the way of good offenses. Georgia is working with a defense that features, by our count, up to six NFL players. Offensively, the Dawgs lack perimeter play makers, but have done well to get their running game going. We don't see much difference talent-wise between QBs McCarron and Murray. When picking Georgia last week, we talked about how we were nervous laying points with HC Richt, but did it anyway. Now, we've got Richt right where we want him -- as an underdog. It took quite a while due to suspensions and injuries to get this Georgia defense together and thriving as a whole, but now that it is, they are well-equipped to put major heat on Bama in this setting. Our trouble with this line is that the public is allowing the oddsmakers to price this league just as it has done the past few years. Hence, the line on this game. It's high. Too high. Given the perceived flow and the lack of skill players or desire by the coaches to try anything crazy with so much on the line, what you have is a defensive struggle in the making that fits right into the same type of game we've seen quite a bit this season in this conference. 17-10. 14-10. 20-17. 13-10. 17-13. Ring a bell?
Comments
Bengals -1 1/2 -- Effort vs. no effort here. Can't be any more simple than that. Chasing teams on hot streaks around the sports book in the NFL is a sure path to bankruptcy, but we'll make an exception just this once because the situational edge to Bengals is so strong and the match ups also work in their favor, too. When a team, especially the Cincy D, is this young and is showing major signs of strength, the sky really is the limit. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense is showing nice balance and will have a major match up edge when it takes to the air against a Chargers' secondary that couldn't stop the pass to begin with and now has injury issues in the secondary. San Diego has no type of home-field edge. The Chargers had so many tickets left unsold last week that the game was blacked out in Southern California. Things go from bad to worse when a young with ample confidence hits town while on a playoff push and the very last bit of juice in the Chargers' lemon was squeezed in a near five-quarter game.
Broncos -7 -- The Bucs simply cannot stop the pass. We said it in Week 1 and we're saying it now. Heck, it's not even the same secondary thanks to injury, trades and drug suspensions (and a combo of two or all three in some players' cases). Tampa had a nice midseason run. Their effort should be commended as they play hard for rah-rah guy Greg Schiano, who is still very much behind the curve as far as in-game management at the NFL and Xs and Os. All of that gets magnified with a road trip to the Broncos and the reason for it is that without max effort, Tampa is simply not a good enough to hang with the league's elite and we don't see a team going from the swamp to the altitude while facing a QB that can exploit what they cannot stop is going to lead to anything other than an easy win. Sad to see McGahee go down for the Broncos, but it actually creates a great situation for us because a Broncos offense that strives for excellence and precision with Manning at QB will be taking the insertion of a new RB as a challenge to not interrupt their flow. While most may think the Broncos will produce one of their poorer offensive showings of the season, we see quite the opposite as Manning gets his unit to rise to the occasion. Tampa needed a slew of breaks to beat the Chargers a few weeks ago (punt and INT returns for TD). Then made an improbable late-game rally to beat the Panthers in OT. Last week was a grinder and probably the last good effort we'll see out of this team for a good few weeks if not the entire season. This one gets ugly.
Nebraska -3 -- We're not a fan of either team right now, but if you pit them against each other, we'll side with the Cornhuskers in a game that may get ugly. Wisconsin had a nice hot streak in the middle of the season. But once the Badgers were back in against quality competition, vs. Ohio St. and Penn St. they wound up with Ls. In fact, that's been the case any time this team has played quality competition this season. The problem is twofold now. The Badgers are weak at QB and WR. And their defense is a major concern heading into this situation. Basically, this team is a good ground game and that's about it. While Nebraska is no great shakes, they can move the ball and play defense at a slightly higher level than Wisky. This call really hinges on our perception of what sort of condition both physically and mentally each team will be in. For Wisconsin, this is a trip back to the title game. For Nebraska, it's an exciting new adventure. Never underestimate how college teams can under-perform when taking the business-like approach and can over-perform when excited. And as much as we hate to say it, and factor this in, but can you really see Wisconsin in a third straight Rose Bowl?
UCLA +9 -- We had Stanford last week because much of that call revolved around the fact that a program that conducts itself like an NFL team was much better equipped to fire a good effort fresh off a huge win the week prior. UCLA was quite the opposite, and it showed. But this week, the roles are somewhat reversed and the mental focus shifts in a big way for Stanford. Think about it, Stanford is a very methodical team with smart players and an NFL mentality. They are not, however, loaded with the type of skill players who can produce a big margin. And whereas the professional approach worked well last week, this week it may actually hurt in the sense that this could be a very workmanlike performance not conducive to covering big numbers. In general, it takes a massive talent gap for a team to turn around a week after routing an opponent and go out and do it again. UCLA can take what it did wrong last week and improve. We don't see that same aspect being so fruitful for Stanford. Not sure if UCLA can win this game, but they have more than enough to stay within the number and give the Cardinal a scare. Again, just think about what the oddsmaker is asking the Cardinal to do.
I played Georgia +8.5 on Sunday but it was here in town
I think the Talent level is right there and the initial move is the correct call. not yet but Alabama will take more money so I think your right. People know Alabama. BK if he's a local he's begging for Georgia money tell hm you'll play for +10 -110 of course doesn't hurt to ask use to do it all the time when they needed a side bad.
Sorry guys I was talking about the UCLA game not the Georgia game.
Yes, and it was really something to hear. Please email me at my Advantage Sports mailbox and we can catch up. If you don't have it still, we can ask Edward for permission to exchange contact info.