fwiw Lots of folks are donating big dollars to heirs now and filing gift tax returns. The exclusion is 5mil set to go down to 1mil in 2013. I do think Obama is going to get reelected. Capital gains rates are about to also hit the roof. I would think if anyone is holding an asset where large capital gains will be triggered, most will sell before end of the year. Lot of tax planning going down before the end of the year for a lot of folks.
great point on the cap. gains rate chuck. you don't hear any of the "pump and dump" stock pickers talking about how that will affect the market by year-end
That Virginia number is big. Obama will win Ohio. If he adds Virginia to it. Night night. Wisconsin is being added into a lot of projections for the blue team.
This year’s decline in media trust is driven by independents and Republicans. The 31% and 26%, respectively, who express a great deal or fair amount of trust are record lows and are down significantly from last year.
Independents are sharply more negative compared with 2008, suggesting the group that is most closely divided between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is quite dissatisfied with its ability to get fair and accurate news coverage of this election.
I have been following this election since day 1. Most polls are a joke. This race is pretty close to even. I also think Mitt wins this thing. Do not under estimate the Republicans coming out in November. In 2010 they did
I have been following this election since day 1. Most polls are a joke. This race is pretty close to even. I also think Mitt wins this thing. Do not under estimate the Republicans coming out in November. In 2010 they did
I think you're dead wrong, but if you think the race is anywhere close to even you should be absolutely unloading on Romney.
Need Europe to really stall out, which could crush the US markets. Since QE3 is already announced, the implied put from the Fed is out of play and it could lead to free fall. Highly doubtful, but other than the debates, this is Romneys only other chance IMO.
polling might be a touch better than it was in 1948. just sayin.
just sayin
According to a new Washington Post survey, among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent, and in Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent. However, this poll is using a model that resembles 2008, when there is little reason to believe that this will be the case. They have party ID with Democrats at 35%, Republicans at 26% and Independents at 35%, plus 3% saying they have no preference. More on this in a minute, let us just say the media is known to do this, even when conventional wisdom says it will not look like 2008, and will likely be more like 2004.
This Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio 2012 Presidential survey of 594 likely voters was conducted September 21-22, 2012. It had a margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. It used a party ID that looked like this: 41.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican; 27.5% Independent/Other. Once again, this poll is over sampling Democrats, but the results are different.
Seeing it happening now. Some serious money is already being moved and it will intensify this last quarter. Good for me in the short term, bad in the long term. Can't believe the GOP couldn't find a viable candidate to beat this clown.
Can't believe the GOP couldn't find a viable candidate to beat this clown.
There are NONE. Consider this............they have Wayne Root warming up in the bullpen and no draft picks. Root at one time claimed to be a member of the Jewish Republican Party. wtfti. VP doubtful Ryan comes across as a frat boy scolding pledges. This is comparable to a nationally televised game with BHO's hometown announcers calling the game. As stated earlier in this and other threads, I'm down on Prez and looking for more at any large down tick.
I agree. Incredibly weak GOP field produced a weak candidate. A marginal candidate beats Obama. The GOP couldn't even offer that. Rick Santorum as a finalist? Really?
This mess aint going anywhere and the GOP knows that. We are saving Christie/Rubio for 2016. By that time the economy should be in better shape so we can ride the wave like Clinton did. Its all politics.
the polling that has Obama ahead by so much is being manipulated....
the media loves obama and they are trying to get the GOP to think its over,but
its not, going to be very interesting.
If and when Romney wins, the Obama campaign will say they were cheated
and all hell will break lose.
the polling that has Obama ahead by so much is being manipulated....
the media loves obama and they are trying to get the GOP to think its over,but
its not, going to be very interesting.
If and when Romney wins, the Obama campaign will say they were cheated
and all hell will break lose.
So people like Nate Silver and CNN are "manipulating" things, but Dick Morris is a good/trusted neutral source to go to for information? I remember some of these fringe sites popping up in 2008 telling us that everything was being skewed towards Obama, and that McCain would take care of business on Election Day.
the polling that has Obama ahead by so much is being manipulated....
the media loves obama and they are trying to get the GOP to think its over,but
its not, going to be very interesting.
If and when Romney wins, the Obama campaign will say they were cheated
and all hell will break lose.
Since this is a gambling forum and the original post was regarding a futures bet, I would just like to add that for any future bet, you should always factor in the Time-Value-of-Money in order to determine the bets +ev.
Having your money tied up for months is an issue for any savvy finance guy or gambler
Damn-it I suck. Totally dropped the ball on this one. My +176 or whatever is shit compared to the current 5Dimes line, which you should take Romney on if you trust Pinny as being Pinny.
No Vig line with current odds at Pinny -368.
5Dimes
barry -500
mit +400
As for Silver and Morris, funk those guys. I prefer Silver's approach as the the larger his sample size grows, the more smoothing effect it would have on the data, assuming the majority of the polls are correct and the tainted ones make little difference. but unless we have the internals on every poll taken since the start, we cannot know the ratio of garbage in/garbage out. Silver may be a genius but i have no doubt a certain percentage of his data is corrupted. 2%? 20?, there is no way to know.
I am amazed that these numbers look the way they do with zero attack ads from romney and zero debates to this point. 6, 7 weeks out still?
what i do know:
more reps than dems will show up on election day
more independents that backed barry will flip this time around. that is information based solely on me speaking with persons in my sphere that fell for the obama hype in '08 that he would unite the country, rise above the normal politics, stop the oceans from rising. romney doesn't even need to make ads, just replay everything barry said in '08 and in his first year in office.
it is causing an internal struggle though as i do subscribe to EMT, to a point, but i am not seeing it the going the way the market does.
I just read some more about Nate Silver's background today. Really interesting stuff, and I was surprised that he's only 34. And I didn't even connect that it was the same Nate Silver that wrote for ESPN.
TL - was also impressed when I read up on Silver. He smart. As for sample sizes, this will be his second election. Kinda excited to see if he can replicate his 08 performance.
Comments
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-shows-obama-leads-romney-key-swing-states-150338499--election.html
That Virginia number is big. Obama will win Ohio. If he adds Virginia to it. Night night. Wisconsin is being added into a lot of projections for the blue team.
This year’s decline in media trust is driven by independents and Republicans. The 31% and 26%, respectively, who express a great deal or fair amount of trust are record lows and are down significantly from last year.
Independents are sharply more negative compared with 2008, suggesting the group that is most closely divided between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is quite dissatisfied with its ability to get fair and accurate news coverage of this election.
A new high for distrust of mass media
I think you're dead wrong, but if you think the race is anywhere close to even you should be absolutely unloading on Romney.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Need Europe to really stall out, which could crush the US markets. Since QE3 is already announced, the implied put from the Fed is out of play and it could lead to free fall. Highly doubtful, but other than the debates, this is Romneys only other chance IMO.
just sayin
According to a new Washington Post survey, among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent, and in Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent. However, this poll is using a model that resembles 2008, when there is little reason to believe that this will be the case. They have party ID with Democrats at 35%, Republicans at 26% and Independents at 35%, plus 3% saying they have no preference. More on this in a minute, let us just say the media is known to do this, even when conventional wisdom says it will not look like 2008, and will likely be more like 2004.
This Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio 2012 Presidential survey of 594 likely voters was conducted September 21-22, 2012. It had a margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. It used a party ID that looked like this: 41.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican; 27.5% Independent/Other. Once again, this poll is over sampling Democrats, but the results are different.
There are NONE. Consider this............they have Wayne Root warming up in the bullpen and no draft picks. Root at one time claimed to be a member of the Jewish Republican Party. wtfti. VP doubtful Ryan comes across as a frat boy scolding pledges. This is comparable to a nationally televised game with BHO's hometown announcers calling the game. As stated earlier in this and other threads, I'm down on Prez and looking for more at any large down tick.
That's what are party is banking on IMO
the polling that has Obama ahead by so much is being manipulated....
the media loves obama and they are trying to get the GOP to think its over,but
its not, going to be very interesting.
If and when Romney wins, the Obama campaign will say they were cheated
and all hell will break lose.
So people like Nate Silver and CNN are "manipulating" things, but Dick Morris is a good/trusted neutral source to go to for information? I remember some of these fringe sites popping up in 2008 telling us that everything was being skewed towards Obama, and that McCain would take care of business on Election Day.
I wish I was your bookie.
Having your money tied up for months is an issue for any savvy finance guy or gambler
Most savvy finance guys are betting on credit. Most under financed gamblers are betting on Election Eve.
No Vig line with current odds at Pinny -368.
5Dimes
barry -500
mit +400
As for Silver and Morris, funk those guys. I prefer Silver's approach as the the larger his sample size grows, the more smoothing effect it would have on the data, assuming the majority of the polls are correct and the tainted ones make little difference. but unless we have the internals on every poll taken since the start, we cannot know the ratio of garbage in/garbage out. Silver may be a genius but i have no doubt a certain percentage of his data is corrupted. 2%? 20?, there is no way to know.
I am amazed that these numbers look the way they do with zero attack ads from romney and zero debates to this point. 6, 7 weeks out still?
what i do know:
more reps than dems will show up on election day
more independents that backed barry will flip this time around. that is information based solely on me speaking with persons in my sphere that fell for the obama hype in '08 that he would unite the country, rise above the normal politics, stop the oceans from rising. romney doesn't even need to make ads, just replay everything barry said in '08 and in his first year in office.
it is causing an internal struggle though as i do subscribe to EMT, to a point, but i am not seeing it the going the way the market does.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver