interesting info.........early versus late games
vseader
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ow kickoff times affect football linesBy ASHTON GREWAL | November 8, 2007 | [IMG]http://images.***********/covers/comments/comments.gif[/IMG] [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#comment_top"]5 comments[/URL]
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Timing is everything, the saying goes, and it holds true in football betting as well.
Oddsmakers are conscious of the kickoff time for each game on Sunday because of the popularity of parlay bets. As a result, the late afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]games[/URL] are all shaded to some degree.
Those primetime and bigger afternoon games, they draw more money, says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]Sports[/URL] Consultants. We shade the favorites a little bit higher as well as the total. We dont want our clients to have more liability and this is one way of preventing that.
Normally the bulk of each weeks schedule fits into the 1 p.m. ET start time. As the day progresses there are fewer games with more weight attached to each because of the parlay cards.
With these facts in mind youd think thered be an advantage for bettors playing the first group of games. Playing the over and the favorite should convert at a higher percentage than the later matchups, but that hasnt been the case so far this season.
Favored teams are 34-34-4 against the spread in early games and 26-31 in later contests. Over is the right play 49 percent of the time earlier in the day (45-46-1) and 51 percent afterwards (28-27-2).
This years numbers suggest theres no real edge, but the bookmakers swear its something they take into account.
You really have to pay attention to them, Bob Scucci, director of race and sport for Coast Hotels, says of the later matches. You have the same amount of people betting on fewer games. Its more concentrated.
Im less worried when there are five or six (late afternoon) games. When theres just two or three we have to win them all.
The two best matchups so far this season both fell in the late time slot with mixed returns for the books. The public took the cash in Week 6 when the favored New England Patriots beat the Dallas Cowboys, with the game also playing over the 52 total.
The house was the winner of Super Bowl XLI ½. The Indianapolis Colts covered and the AFC slugfest finished well below the 56 total.
Of course that win was ruined with the results from the last two games of Week 9. The Sunday and Monday nighters were shootouts with the underdog losing each one.
Although this seasons stats dont necessarily support the notion, Scucci says theres more value playing the favorite and over during the first set of games and doing the opposite later in the day.
Wiseguys like to play the under and the dog, especially in the late games.
The highest-profile games this weekend are both scheduled in the later time slots. The Cowboys and the New York Giants face off at 4:15 p.m. while the Colts play the San Diego Chargers in the Sunday night game.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/VinVegas"]VinVegas[/URL] says:
11/09/07 01:35AM
Great Article. That is some very useful information.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/aciraq"]aciraq[/URL] says:
11/09/07 05:45AM
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/bc2"]bc2[/URL] says:
11/09/07 12:49PM
i bet on a site that now wont post next weeks nfl lines until after the monday night [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]game[/URL] that night has started. they obviously dont want the monday night game used as the first part of a teaser. i guess they think theyll force that sort of bettor to bet it all on the monday game instead of let him possibly have a bet or bets riding into the next week. for years they always put the next week lines up before the monday night game but now have changed their policy for some reason?
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/GWarner27"]GWarner27[/URL] says:
11/09/07 12:51PM
well-done.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/GoG"]GoG[/URL] says:
11/11/07 01:14AM
failed to mention one very important thing...
the reason that the dogs and unders cover in the later games is because the public ends up chasing after the early games come in... i.e., the covering side is figured against the final posted number...
so, for example, you might bet the Colts early in the week at -3... but by gametime it could go up to 4.5... and if the Colts win by 4, then the dog covered, officially... but those who got it early still covered with the favorite... that is the whole point of it... the dog play is based on the late number... so you shouldn't get carried away jumping on dogs for the late games early in the week... you want to grab the number at its highest value...
kind of an important point to miss...
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Oddsmakers are conscious of the kickoff time for each game on Sunday because of the popularity of parlay bets. As a result, the late afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]games[/URL] are all shaded to some degree.
Those primetime and bigger afternoon games, they draw more money, says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]Sports[/URL] Consultants. We shade the favorites a little bit higher as well as the total. We dont want our clients to have more liability and this is one way of preventing that.
Normally the bulk of each weeks schedule fits into the 1 p.m. ET start time. As the day progresses there are fewer games with more weight attached to each because of the parlay cards.
With these facts in mind youd think thered be an advantage for bettors playing the first group of games. Playing the over and the favorite should convert at a higher percentage than the later matchups, but that hasnt been the case so far this season.
Favored teams are 34-34-4 against the spread in early games and 26-31 in later contests. Over is the right play 49 percent of the time earlier in the day (45-46-1) and 51 percent afterwards (28-27-2).
This years numbers suggest theres no real edge, but the bookmakers swear its something they take into account.
You really have to pay attention to them, Bob Scucci, director of race and sport for Coast Hotels, says of the later matches. You have the same amount of people betting on fewer games. Its more concentrated.
Im less worried when there are five or six (late afternoon) games. When theres just two or three we have to win them all.
The two best matchups so far this season both fell in the late time slot with mixed returns for the books. The public took the cash in Week 6 when the favored New England Patriots beat the Dallas Cowboys, with the game also playing over the 52 total.
The house was the winner of Super Bowl XLI ½. The Indianapolis Colts covered and the AFC slugfest finished well below the 56 total.
Of course that win was ruined with the results from the last two games of Week 9. The Sunday and Monday nighters were shootouts with the underdog losing each one.
Although this seasons stats dont necessarily support the notion, Scucci says theres more value playing the favorite and over during the first set of games and doing the opposite later in the day.
Wiseguys like to play the under and the dog, especially in the late games.
The highest-profile games this weekend are both scheduled in the later time slots. The Cowboys and the New York Giants face off at 4:15 p.m. while the Colts play the San Diego Chargers in the Sunday night game.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/VinVegas"]VinVegas[/URL] says:
11/09/07 01:35AM
Great Article. That is some very useful information.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/aciraq"]aciraq[/URL] says:
11/09/07 05:45AM
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/bc2"]bc2[/URL] says:
11/09/07 12:49PM
i bet on a site that now wont post next weeks nfl lines until after the monday night [URL="http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=154181&t=0#"]game[/URL] that night has started. they obviously dont want the monday night game used as the first part of a teaser. i guess they think theyll force that sort of bettor to bet it all on the monday game instead of let him possibly have a bet or bets riding into the next week. for years they always put the next week lines up before the monday night game but now have changed their policy for some reason?
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/GWarner27"]GWarner27[/URL] says:
11/09/07 12:51PM
well-done.
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[URL="http://spaces.***********/GoG"]GoG[/URL] says:
11/11/07 01:14AM
failed to mention one very important thing...
the reason that the dogs and unders cover in the later games is because the public ends up chasing after the early games come in... i.e., the covering side is figured against the final posted number...
so, for example, you might bet the Colts early in the week at -3... but by gametime it could go up to 4.5... and if the Colts win by 4, then the dog covered, officially... but those who got it early still covered with the favorite... that is the whole point of it... the dog play is based on the late number... so you shouldn't get carried away jumping on dogs for the late games early in the week... you want to grab the number at its highest value...
kind of an important point to miss...
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