Betting Talk

Another try with Wizard for Sunday

vseadervseader Senior Member
edited August 2007 in Sports Betting
<CENTER>
Wizard's Major Stakes for Sunday, August 19th, 2007</CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="85%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><CENTER>Del Mar Race 3 - PAT O'BRIEN H.

</CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Del Mar Race 3 - PAT O'BRIEN H. 7f Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $300,000. Post Time: 5:00 ET</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Race Synopsis
For a Southern California sprint stakes race, this field has come up surprisingly short on early speed. Bordonaro will set the pace, with Greg's Gold probably sitting closest. The closers could be at a disadvantage if the early fractions are on the slow side, which is a real possibility. Sprint races over the new Polytrack have not favored any one particular running style. </TD></TR><TR><TD>
<CENTER>The Field from the rail out <TABLE class=ri_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ri_heading>#</TD><TD class=ri_heading>Name</TD><TD class=ri_heading>ML</TD></TR><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>1</TD><TD class=even>SOUL CITY SLEW</TD><TD class="even right">12/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>2</TD><TD class=odd>ABSOLUTE GLORY</TD><TD class="odd right">20/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>3</TD><TD class=even>PUBLICATION</TD><TD class="even right">6/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>4</TD><TD class=odd>BORDONARO</TD><TD class="odd right">5/2</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>5</TD><TD class=even>GREG'S GOLD</TD><TD class="even right">2/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>6</TD><TD class=odd>SURF CAT</TD><TD class="odd right">8/5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>First Selection: (6) SURF CAT (Headley Bruce/Solis A)</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">Extremely versatile and talented 5yo horse has won graded stakes from 7F to 1-1/8 miles and has hit the exacta in 11 of 12 lifetime starts, with the lone exception being the 2005 Pacific Classic at a distance that was too far. He came off a layoff of nearly 14 months July 7 and missed by just a nose in the G1 Triple Bend, putting in a resolute rally after waiting for racing room. That effort sets him up perfectly for a forward move today, and he's put in five works over this track since the comeback race, including a brilliant 6F bullet drill August 1. He'll probably sit third or fourth today, swing out into the stretch, and try to reel in the leaders, with a good chance of being successful. Trainer Bruce Headley hadn't won a race over a synthetic surface until Friday, when he broke through with Catch That Thief, also with Alex Solis riding. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Second Selection: (5) GREG'S GOLD (Hofmans David/Espinoza V)</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">Won the G1 Bing Crosby over this track in 2005 when it was still dirt, but then didn't race again for a year and a half. He's run very well in his four starts in California this year, hitting the exacta every time, and comes off his best race yet when missing by just a nose in this year's Bing Crosby. He had his nose in front in deep stretch, but lost the nod on the wire while finishing strongly. The extra furlong today helps his chances, having won his only prior start at 7F, and he projects to sit just behind Bordonaro, getting first run. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Third Selection: (4) BORDONARO (Spawr William/Migliore R)</B></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">Dueled through a lightning pace in the G1 Bing Crosby and led to deep stretch. The pace scenario today looks a lot more favorable and he could be alone on the lead. However, he's never raced at 7 furlongs, and over this tiring track that extra furlong could take its toll. Last year at age 5 he was one of the premier sprinters in the country, but he doesn't seem to be as strong in the lane now at age 6. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wagering Strategy

* A win bet on (6)SURF CAT at 3-2 or better* Exacta 6-5, small reverse* Smaller exacta 6-4, no reverse </PRE></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD><HR width="100%"></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD><CENTER>Del Mar Race 8 - PACIFIC CLASSIC S.

</CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Del Mar Race 8 - PACIFIC CLASSIC S. 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: 7:30 ET</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Race Synopsis
It's no secret that Lava Man is the one to beat, and all 12 rivals will be gunning for him in a competitive renewal of this meet's premier race. The pace is expected to be on the quick side, with A.P. Xcellent trying to get to the lead from his wide post, and Lava Man and Albertus Maximus in close pursuit. Route races over the new Polytrack have clearly favored runners from off the pace, and while it's not impossible to win a route from a position on or near the lead, a horse generally has to be much the best to do so. </TD></TR><TR><TD>
<CENTER>The Field from the rail out <TABLE class=ri_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ri_heading>#</TD><TD class=ri_heading>Name</TD><TD class=ri_heading>ML</TD></TR><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>1</TD><TD class=even>LAVA MAN</TD><TD class="even right">5/2</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>2</TD><TD class=odd>ALBERTUS MAXIMUS</TD><TD class="odd right">15/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>3</TD><TD class=even>SUN BOAT</TD><TD class="even right">6/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>4</TD><TD class=odd>AWESOME GEM</TD><TD class="odd right">15/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>5</TD><TD class=even>STUDENT COUNCIL</TD><TD class="even right">15/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>6</TD><TD class=odd>PORFIDO</TD><TD class="odd right">30/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>7</TD><TD class=even>SALTY HUMOR</TD><TD class="even right">30/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>8</TD><TD class=odd>ARSON SQUAD</TD><TD class="odd right">12/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>9</TD><TD class=even>TIAGO</TD><TD class="even right">6/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>10</TD><TD class=odd>BIG BOOSTER</TD><TD class="odd right">9/2</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>11</TD><TD class=even>A. P. XCELLENT</TD><TD class="even right">8/1</TD><TR><TD class="odd left" align=right>12</TD><TD class=odd>TIME SQUARED</TD><TD class="odd right">15/1</TD><TR><TD class="even left" align=right>13</TD><TD class=even>HELLO SUNDAY</TD><TD class="even right">20/1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>First Selection: (9) TIAGO (Shirreffs John/Smith M E)</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">Can a 3-year-old upset some tough older horses in Del Mar's biggest race? They have in the past (Best Pal, Came Home), and this half brother to Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo certainly has the ability to get this distance. He finished very well in the G1 Belmont Stakes going longer than this but was compromised by the slow early pace. He then came back to win the G2 Swaps in his first start on a synthetic track, and was really just finding his best stride in the stretch as he rolled up along the rail and went right by the leaders. This field is obviously tougher, but the longer distance helps Tiago's chances, and it's key that he's shedding 5 lbs. off his Swaps win while most of his rivals are adding significant weight off their most recent starts. With an honest or fast pace expected, Tiago should have every chance to rally from off the pace, and Mike Smith elects to stay here over stablemate A.P. Xcellent. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Second Selection: (3) SUN BOAT (Mitchell Mike/Baze M C)</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">After being claimed from a dismal performance on turf April 12 this 5-year-old was gelded by new trainer Mike Mitchell, who has used that 'ultimate equipment change' very effectively in the past. It worked wonders for Sun Boat as well, as he returned to win his next start in fast time, then took a giant step up to face G2 company June 2. In that race he was dismissed at 25-1 but finished like a runaway train to miss by just a nose, finishing ahead of A.P. Xcellent, who in turn gave Lava Man such a tough fight in his next start. Proving that his effort in the Californian was not a fluke, Sun Boat returned on July 21 in the G2 San Diego Hcp over this new Polytrack and ran even better, rallying from dead last into the far turn to get up late. His final 5/16 of a mile in :29-4/5 that day was amazing, and bodes well for his stretch out to 1-1/4 miles. The race-over-the-track angle has been very important here this year on the new Polytrack, and gives him an advantage over several rivals. However, he must also pick up 10 lbs. off his last race, and that could be quite a burden at this distance. On the positive side, leading rider Michael Baze elects to stick with Sun Boat after also riding stablemate Big Booster in his last start. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Third Selection: (1) LAVA MAN (O'neill Doug/Nakatani C S)</B></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">The defending champion of this race comes off a very hard-fought win when defending his title in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Lava Man has been THE handicap horse in California for the last two years, and time after time has put in breathtaking performances, whether winning by open lengths, or simply refusing to lose when appearing beaten, as he was in this year's Gold Cup. In that race he put his head in front into the stretch, but when A.P. Xcellent re-claimed the lead in the final furlong, Lava Man appeared to have met his match. However, no one told that to Lava Man, as he dug in resolutely and got his nose up on the wire, reaching for every ounce of energy he had to get the job done. That could end up being his undoing today. That race was extremely hard on Lava Man, as it was on his rival A.P. Xcellent, who returned to run terribly in his next start, finishing up the track at odds-on. Lava Man has had more time between starts, but it still was such a taxing race that one must question if he will be able to rebound with another top performance today. The other concern is that he's never raced over this Polytrack, which has a way of tiring out horses that are not used to racing over it. Lava Man projects to sit a trip similar to his Gold Cup, either in 2nd or 3rd position while saving ground from post 1. He should have a clean shot at the leaders, but over this track he may have a much harder time than usual holding off the closers. It seems that this is the time to take a shot at beating the best horse in the race, and if he does beat us, then we'll salute a real champion.</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Fourth Selection: (10) BIG BOOSTER (Mitchell Mike/Gomez G K)</B></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-INDENT: 3%">Mike Mitchell is the third leading trainer all time by number of wins here at Del Mar, and has two legitimate shots at winning this year's premier race. Like Sun Boat, Big Booster was claimed by Mitchell, gelded, and has improved his form tremendously. Last time out he ws gaining on Lava Man and A.P. Xcellent throughout the stretch but just ran out of ground. He was hurt by the relatively slow pace that day, and might have been best while having to rally from dead last after 6F. He's been given time to recover since that career-best effort and shows five works over this track. However, he must pick up 11 lbs. off that race, and his rider that day, Michael Baze, elects to stay with stablemate Sun Boat. </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wagering Strategy

* A win bet on (9)TIAGO* A smaller win bet on (3)SUN BOAT* Exacta part-wheel 3-9 over 1-3-8-9-10 = $16 for a $2 wager* Trifecta 3-9 over 1-3-9-10 over 1-2-3-4-6-8-9-10-13 = $42 for a $1 wager </PRE></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD><HR width="100%"></TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD><CENTER>[SIZE=-1]©Copyright 2007, Wizard Publications[/SIZE]</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>

Comments

  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited August 2007
    Thanks! Let's cash em!:drinking:
  • vseadervseader Senior Member
    edited August 2007
    #9 Tiago.....Del Mar Pacific Classic Race 8 scratched...
    was pick from the Wizard for Sunday.....
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited August 2007
    Del Mar on Aug 19 2007<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000066><TD colSpan=7>[SIZE=-1]Race 3 [/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 7F Dirt
    Purse: $300000.00
    [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]#[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Name[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Jockey/Driver[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Win [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Place [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Show [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Win --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]5[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Greg's Gold[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Victor Espinoza[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 6.00 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 2.60 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 2.40 [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Place --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]6[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Surf Cat[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Alex O. Solis[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 2.40 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 2.10 [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Show --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]1[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Soul City Slew[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Julien R. Leparoux[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 5.00 [/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Bet Type[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Runners[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Pay Out[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Exacta[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5/6 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]12.40[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Quinella[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5,6 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]5.00[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Trifecta[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5/6/1 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]108.40[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Double[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]11/5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]21.20[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Pick 3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]3/11/5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]55.00[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Scratched: None

    [/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Del Mar on Aug 19 2007<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000066><TD colSpan=7>[SIZE=-1]Race 8 [/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 1/4M Dirt
    Purse: $1000000.00
    [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]#[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Name[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Jockey/Driver[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Win [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Place [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] Show [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Win --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]5[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Student Council[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Richard Migliore[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 48.80 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 31.80 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 20.60 [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Place --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]4[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Awesome Gem[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]David R. Flores[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 12.40 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 8.20 [/SIZE]</TD></TR><!-- Show --><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]13[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Hello Sunday (FR)[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Brice Blanc[/SIZE]</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1] 9.40 [/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Bet Type[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Runners[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Pay Out[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Exacta[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5/4 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]355.20[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Quinella[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]4,5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]227.60[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Trifecta[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5/4/13 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]5027.80[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Superfecta[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]5/4/13/8 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]36054.60[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Double[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]6/5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]185.80[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Pick 3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]9/6/5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]1517.20[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>[SIZE=-1]Scratched: 9 Tiago

    [/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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