My Thoughts: Hollywood Park Pick 6: (Opinions Welcome)
Duckgawd
Senior Member
There is a carryover a little over 1.3 Million into today's Pick 6 at Hollywood Park: Today's card looks tougher then yesterdays but there will be some HUGE tickets out there and Im sure some one will have a winning ticket if not more.
I haven't narrowed my ticket down yet to the one i am playing but a couple of thoughts i wanted to throw out there, and if anyone has looked over the card and has a strong opinion on a horse or two in the sequence, my ears are open.
FIrst off, The key to my Pick 6 (Atleast 1 of my singles) Comes in the 8th race. 12 horses going postward going 1 1/16th over the turf. A horse that I feel as a solid chance is the #6 Frank the Barber. Coming off his maiden victory going the same distance over the turf on the 3rd of June where a few other horses came out of this race and won next time out. Had a little trouble in that race to close to 1/2 length victory. 12-1 ML!
Race 6: Another Turf race, but this one 1 1/4. #6 Ring of Friendship will have the lead, and question is will he be pressured. Dont know, If he is, this could set up well for a closer, and #5 Exclamation 8-1 ML came from last, to win last time out, good speed figs, first time over the Hollywood Turf but in top form and I think has a shot in this race.
Race 5: #4 Double Trouble, will be a single on a lot of tickets. This filly should be off the pace, #'s 1,6 should be the pace setters, but I kind of like the #3 coming off a win at 1 mile, couple of G2 runnings with a 2nd place on the 14th of Jan. 2 for 3 on the Turf and 1 for 2 on Hollywood Park Turf. (Possiably a single)
The other races are more wide open in my opinion..... Have a good day out there today!
I haven't narrowed my ticket down yet to the one i am playing but a couple of thoughts i wanted to throw out there, and if anyone has looked over the card and has a strong opinion on a horse or two in the sequence, my ears are open.
FIrst off, The key to my Pick 6 (Atleast 1 of my singles) Comes in the 8th race. 12 horses going postward going 1 1/16th over the turf. A horse that I feel as a solid chance is the #6 Frank the Barber. Coming off his maiden victory going the same distance over the turf on the 3rd of June where a few other horses came out of this race and won next time out. Had a little trouble in that race to close to 1/2 length victory. 12-1 ML!
Race 6: Another Turf race, but this one 1 1/4. #6 Ring of Friendship will have the lead, and question is will he be pressured. Dont know, If he is, this could set up well for a closer, and #5 Exclamation 8-1 ML came from last, to win last time out, good speed figs, first time over the Hollywood Turf but in top form and I think has a shot in this race.
Race 5: #4 Double Trouble, will be a single on a lot of tickets. This filly should be off the pace, #'s 1,6 should be the pace setters, but I kind of like the #3 coming off a win at 1 mile, couple of G2 runnings with a 2nd place on the 14th of Jan. 2 for 3 on the Turf and 1 for 2 on Hollywood Park Turf. (Possiably a single)
The other races are more wide open in my opinion..... Have a good day out there today!
Comments
Starting off with single single, with the 4 in both opening legs! then we spread a little bit and then again single Frank the Barber in the 8th. Ill have a decent WP on him as well to make up incase I lose the Pick 6 hopefully he wins and make a little money! have a good one guys!
I got some money for tommorows ticket as Frank The Barber Scores in the 8th today. (Through a disqualification) Had him WP and got the Exacta. So I will try a similar wager tommorow with a $50 or less Pick 6 and A couple horses WP !!!!
Be back tommorow!
The order of the entries listing is based upon the fair odds line.
What we seek are contenders whose fair odds are better (lower)
than the AM line (or post-time) odds; i.e. overlays which may be
overlooked by the public.
Race 1 - 5.0 Furlongs; D M 62500
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
1 MY MALOOF 1.1 1.6 65 24.6 509 9.2 1 1
6 WARREN'S S 2.7 8.0 114 9.6 386 13.0 4 2
5 MALIA SOFI 3.1 5.0 533 15.9 448 12.3 2 4
2 DEBATING S 4.6 3.5 91 16.5 436 11.0 3 3
3 QUEEN HOLL N/A 4.0 ** First Start **
4 PASS ME TH N/A 5.0 ** First Start **
Race 2 - 7.0 Furlongs; D A 51000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
4 SEASIDE AF 1.2 2.0 299 17.4 514 14.2 1 1
1 SO LONG SO 2.0 1.6 68 11.8 319 13.8 2 4
2 BOSSET 5.4 5.0 34 14.7 448 12.3 4 2
5 PINATA 7.5 12.0 77 13.0 386 13.0 7 5
1A REBEL CREE 9.3 1.6 68 11.8 842 18.8 3 7
6 QUIET KIM 16.0 4.0 101 11.9 229 11.8 5 3
3 PRECIOUSNE 22.0 8.0 113 15.9 390 14.9 6 6
Race 3 - 9.0 Furlongs; D C 8000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
7 TALARIS 2.1 5.0 241 12.9 247 6.9 5 1
6 PLAN FOR F 3.2 4.0 233 6.0 374 9.6 4 2
8 SKIPASLEW 4.9 2.0 160 15.6 63 4.8 2 3
1 TRICKY FLA 6.7 10.0 29 6.9 56 5.4 1 8
4 BLACK HORS 7.1 5.0 232 23.3 436 11.0 9 4
2 TRAFFIC UP 9.8 8.0 233 6.0 173 2.3 3 9
3 FREEDOM CL 10.2 20.0 38 10.5 2 .0 7 5
5 ON EDGE 14.0 5.0 75 17.3 643 18.7 6 6
1A DONTBENCHM 64.0 10.0 29 6.9 348 13.5 8 7
Race 4 - 5.5 Furlongs; D R 25000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
2 TONY MONTA 2.1 3.5 13 15.4 842 18.8 5 1
3 ICANMAKEIT 2.4 6.0 101 14.9 621 17.6 1 3
7 COYOTE FAS 3.9 2.5 110 15.5 436 11.0 3 5
1 DR. MOHRBA 6.3 3.0 533 15.9 390 14.9 4 2
4 PRESSTHEPA 6.4 5.0 24 4.2 448 12.3 2 6
6 VISAYAS 6.8 5.0 66 18.2 284 10.6 6 4
5 RECUERDO P 28.2 20.0 50 8.0 61 6.6 7 7
Race 5 - 8.5 Furlongs; D A 51000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
4 OUTLAW JON 2.2 6.0 12 8.3 621 17.6 3 1
5 SCAT THIEF 2.6 12.0 74 14.9 448 12.3 1 2
2 POWER SHIF 5.3 5.0 132 18.9 514 14.2 2 3
3 GET OFF TH 5.3 2.5 113 15.9 451 17.3 6 4
8 OLIVER TWI 9.0 15.0 132 18.9 284 10.6 9 5
6 KEY MAKER 11.1 3.5 533 15.9 612 17.0 4 7
1 POINT OF I 11.3 5.0 236 16.5 436 11.0 8 6
7 ADD HEAT 20.9 12.0 139 10.1 842 18.8 5 8
9 WOODEN TIC 28.4 8.0 60 16.7 319 13.8 7 9
Race 6 - 6.5 Furlongs; D S 46000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
4 BENCH WENC 1.0 2.5 10 20.0 390 14.9 2 1
3 GUYDANCEFR 2.2 20.0 60 18.3 252 12.7 4 2
7 LT. LORRAI 4.2 2.0 126 19.0 612 17.0 3 3
2 PEACE BY P 4.8 8.0 49 16.3 514 14.2 1 4
8 HOTTEST N/A 5.0 ** First Start **
1 QUICK HONE N/A 15.0 ** First Start **
5 IRISH EXPR N/A 8.0 ** First Start **
6 PERFECTLY N/A 5.0 ** First Start **
Race 7 - 6.5 Furlongs; D N 75000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
7 YOU ARE TH 2.3 2.5 533 15.9 217 10.1 5 2
5 INTO REALI 2.7 4.0 236 16.5 229 11.8 1 5
1 DESIRE TO 3.4 12.0 91 16.5 621 17.6 6 1
4 COCO BELLE 4.7 5.0 299 17.4 436 11.0 2 7
2 SWISS DIVA 7.6 6.0 266 12.4 319 13.8 7 3
6 GLORIFIED 8.2 2.0 90 18.9 321 12.8 4 6
3 PRINCESS I 17.8 12.0 299 17.4 451 17.3 3 4
Race 8 - 6.0 Furlongs; D M 32000
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank
3 SEEMS TO M 1.9 6.0 241 12.9 284 10.6 3 2
6 VIRTUOUS C 3.0 20.0 6 16.7 247 6.9 1 3
14 COOL HAND 5.1 3.5 113 15.9 304 9.9 6 1
4 KICKIN CAP 5.9 8.0 50 8.0 61 6.6 2 10
2 OH SHINE 7.9 8.0 79 19.0 374 9.6 4 4
13 OUR PAPA J 18.2 8.0 299 17.4 842 18.8 7 8
5 RYDELL 19.3 8.0 60 16.7 229 11.8 8 7
11 ALPINE NUG 23.4 8.0 68 11.8 319 13.8 11 5
15 ROAR IN SO 35.9 15.0 5 .0 173 2.3 12 6
1 UNCLE BUCK 47.0 50.0 29 6.9 56 5.4 9 12
12 WARREN'S R 47.0 15.0 114 9.6 316 7.6 10 11
8 PEACHY CAN 59.0 20.0 32 .0 217 10.1 5 9
7 REFLEX N/A 15.0 ** First Start **
9 EXTREME NO N/A 8.0 ** First Start **
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Hollywood Park Pick Six Ticket For Monday July 2!!!
DISCLAIMER: THIS TICKET IS STRICTLY FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ONLY ... THERE'S NO REALISTIC CHANCE THAT I WILL PLAY IT ON MY OWN ... I WILL LIKELY PARTICIPATE IN A GROUP TICKET!!!
A $172 "bomber" in the sixth race Sunday July 1 fuels a record four-day Pick Six carryover of $3,274,505.48 for a rare Monday racing card at Hollywood Park. Since Sunday bettors wagered about $3.5 million chasing a $1.3 million three-day carryover, there's anticipation that today's pool could break the North American record of $7,303,848 set at Santa Anita on March 3, 2004.
Having said all that, here's my $432 ticket including comments on each race...
Race 3: 6 Plan For Fun + 7 Talaris + 8 Skipaslew
You might have a better chance playing Russian Roulette than to stake a big P6 ticket on one of THESE $8K bottom of the barrel claimers!
Race 4: 6 Visayas + 7 Coyote Fast
I learned a bitter lesson long ago NOT to leave a "Cagey Canani" horse off a carryover ticket, thus Coyote Fast is a MUST!
Race 5: 3 Get Off The Sugar + 6 Key Maker
Both of these horses have performed well over the HP "cushion" ... Get Off The Sugar bested Key Maker on the wire at the same distance 5/16.
Race 6: 3 Guydance From Above + 4 Bench Wench + 7 Lt. Lorraine
Like fact that CNak takes over Bench Wench ... ditto for MBaze riding Lt. Lorraine in place of Matt Garcia ... gotta have Guydance after seeing Mendoza/Chavez team for the big bomber Sunday!
Race 7: 5 Into Reality + 7 You Are The Answer
These two figure to benefit most from what should develop into a speed duel up front.
Race 8: 2 On Shine + 3 Seems To Me + 4 Kickin Caper
Would like to "be alive" and "have 'em all" going into the finale ... will settle for a "barn switch," a comebacker, and an Avila/Berrio "question mark" to end the sequence!!!
Good luck! Here's hoping you or a group