nice info for bowl games

vseader · December 2006

Handicapping the Bowl Games

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by: Elite Sports Investing

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2006-12-07 01:50:53

</TD></TR><TR><TD>by Erik Scheponik

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So now we are on to the bowls, college football fans, and I am one of the few people out there proud to say that I hope we never go to a playoff system. (not that I dont think a change should be made in the major bowls to determine a true Champ) The bowls are part of my holiday season, always have been, and I love handicapping them. That being said, I do believe that there are about 7-8 too many bowls right now. I mean how in the hell do two, yes TWO, SUN BELT TEAMS MAKE BOWLS? There are a whopping 32 of them this season, and if I had to predict, Id say ESI will make abou 17-20 plays, although all 32 games will be written up in the next 2-3 weeks in the Thought Process newsletter. Enjoy and Good Luck.<o:p></o:p>

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MOTIVATION- What teams truly do or do not want to be in that particular bowl game? Stay away from teams that may have expected to be in a much better bowl, especially if the loss occurred in their last 2 games. It is hard for a team to get up for a bowl that they are only in because they did not do what they need to do. Also, watch for teams who were screwed out of a better bowl by being jumped in the polls, or BCS ratings. The Holiday Bowl has been a perfect example of this. The underdog has covered the last seven in this game, and the favorite has usually been a sulking Big 12 team, or like two year ago, California, a sulking Pac 10 team, who just missed a BCS bowl for some reason or another (Cal lost outright to Texas Techa as an 11 pt. favorite!). There have been five outright upsets in this game despite 6 of the 7 games having more than a touchdown pointspread. Last seasons Holiday Bowl was no different as the Oregon Ducks lost as a 3.5 pt. favorite to Oklahoma. The Sun Bowl was also like this in the 1990s. Also be wary of teams who are accustomed to going to a better bowl, or teams who went to the same bowl last year. Try to get a feel for the motivation of Texas and Florida St. before playing them in this years bowl matchup. It is also important to note that some teams may have wanted a better bowl at the beginning of the year, but because of injuries, adversity, close losses, etc they find themselves playing Fluke U in the Cereal Bowl at least a few days before New Years. These teams sometime look at the game as a way to salvage the season, showing off what could have been, and sending their seniors out with a win. <o:p></o:p>

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DOGS AND OVERS EARLY- As a generic rule, more underdogs seem to cover in pre New Years non-traditional bowl games. As a matter of fact pre New Years dogs of 7> are now 32-12$ since 1996 (6-0 last season). Also, the early games tend to be played very sloppily, resulting in turnovers, blown assignments, and big plays on special teams. These early bowls also often pit teams from small conferences against teams vs. larger ones, matching up defenses with offenses that they have seen nothing like all year. These upstarts tend to lay it all on the line, throwing caution to the wind in their play calling. They also do not have the athletes on the defensive side of the ball to matchup with the superiorly talented favorite. This has resulted in many overs. In fact, the last three years, all Bowl games played before and on December 26<SUP>th</SUP> are 26-9-1 OVER (6-0-1last season!). <o:p></o:p>

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UNDERS AND FAVORITES LATE- Once New Years Day comes around, the power teams have had ample time to prepare for a game that they worked all year to get to. The play is less sloppy, and many of these teams have gotten where they are with solid if not spectacular defenses. As a matter of fact all traditional January Bowl Games with an Over/Under >48 are on a whopping 30-11$ UNDER run. The superior favorites are motivated and have proven themselves all season long. <o:p></o:p>

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COACHING- Just like in the regular season, one cannot underestimate the value of coaching. Getting a team ready off a layoff, adding new wrinkles, and attacking or defending an offense or defense that they are not used to seeing is all coaching. Also, during the off week, pay special attention to coaching changes not just at the top but up and down the staff. Will these coaches be coaching during the bowl game? Will the team of an outgoing coach play hard and want to send the coach out on a win? Or will they roll over and die, more worried about the new coach, or possibly examining other options. <o:p></o:p>

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INJURIES, SUSPENSIONS, ETC.- Bowl teams can have as little as 10 days (although not this year) or as much as 6 weeks between their last regular season game and their bowl game. Pay attention to suspensions and injury updates, as a lot can happen in that time frame. Also pay special attention to injured players returning to the lineup, and whether or not there was a notable difference in the teams performance without that player throughout the season.<o:p></o:p>

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PEDIGREE- Respect the quality of a program during bowl season, and note that their performance in certain games this season, good or bad, took place for a variety of reasons. I love to take an underdog from a power conference before New Years Day. I like a team that doesnt know they are the underdog. Some programs have been built to a point that they should not be an underdog to the team they are playing no matter what happened (within reason) down the stretch. Pay attention to strength of schedule, strength of conference, and the overall direction of the football program. <o:p></o:p>

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MONEY LINE DOGS- In the last 3 seasons 43 underdogs have won outright in the bowls, with some very big prices in this group. With all the intangibles involved in the bowls, and so much hinging on preparation and motivation, underdogs on the money line are a very strong play in these games. You hit a few of these and it can turn a breakeven bowl season into a profitable one<o:p></o:p>

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BE SMART- Bet the bowls intelligently. Do not ruin what you worked for all year to go nuts in the bowls. Conversely, if you have had a losing season, do not attempt to get even by betting larger because the end of the season is near. I believe that serious money can be made during the bowl season, it is my favorite time of the year to wager, but NOTHING IS A LOCK. Manage your money wisely, and remember College Football will be back next August. Remember the Holidays is a time of year to unite and enjoy time with those special to you. Do not let a bad call, dropped pass, missed field goal, and above all else RECKLESS MONEY MANAGEMENT ruin this special time of year<o:p></o:p>

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